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Baseball Fever Policy

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This document was based on a similar policy used by SABR.

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Sean Holtz, Webmaster of Baseball Almanac & Baseball Fever
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2017 win projections

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  • 2017 win projections

    Not sure if I already started that thread (or if it was last season).

    Interesting that the projections actually have the dodgers a win better than the cubs (I don't buy into it especially because of the dodgers rotation injury risk)

    http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts...tion=Standings

    Also it projects basically no division races, has the red sox, astros, indians, nats, cubs and dodgers all win their division pretty easily. Of course injuries and differing performances will change that but still interesting.

    Also interesting are the brewers. They aren't really good but 28 players on them project for one win or more (20 of them hitters though) which is leading the league.

    On the other hand no player projects for 3 wins and most are also under 2 wins (only 8 are 2+).

    Basically they are the opposite of the 2016 white sox (just 13 players over 1 win but 3 of them over 4.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

  • #2
    Wow, the Reds, Brewers and Padres must all suck extra bad if they're expected to have fewer wins than the White Sox. Can't say that I've paid attention to their off season moves, but wow!

    Sox at 70 wins...seems high.

    Speaking of the White Sox - does anyone have a team to which Jose Abreu would be a worthwhile addition? He's had 100+ RBI the last 3 years.
    Last edited by Toledo Inquisition; 01-30-2017, 02:06 PM.
    "If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it on the scoreboard?" -Jeff Francoeur"

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    • #3
      Originally posted by dominik View Post
      Not sure if I already started that thread (or if it was last season).

      Interesting that the projections actually have the dodgers a win better than the cubs (I don't buy into it especially because of the dodgers rotation injury risk)

      http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts...tion=Standings

      Also it projects basically no division races, has the red sox, astros, indians, nats, cubs and dodgers all win their division pretty easily. Of course injuries and differing performances will change that but still interesting.

      Also interesting are the brewers. They aren't really good but 28 players on them project for one win or more (20 of them hitters though) which is leading the league.

      On the other hand no player projects for 3 wins and most are also under 2 wins (only 8 are 2+).

      Basically they are the opposite of the 2016 white sox (just 13 players over 1 win but 3 of them over 4.
      I ain't buying the Dodgers are 7 games better than the Giants.
      Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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      • #4
        I'd be thrilled if the A's pulled off 77 wins. Our roster is literally garbage.
        WAR? Prove it!

        Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
          I'd be thrilled if the A's pulled off 77 wins. Our roster is literally garbage.
          The rotation is not bad, albeit very risky. It could implode but gray, cotton, mannea and graveman do have some upside.

          The lineup also isn't terrible albeit of course not great (healy, Davis, vogt, semien, Joyce are ok hitters)
          I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
            I ain't buying the Dodgers are 7 games better than the Giants.
            I agree with that. I wonder if these projections favor hitters over pitchers. That could be an easy explanation for the gap.

            Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
            I'd be thrilled if the A's pulled off 77 wins. Our roster is literally garbage.
            The A's have a good track record recently for outperforming the expectations set. You won't find me rooting for them, but I wish them all the best.

            I wonder what the projections like so much about the Angels that they think they are an 84 win team. That rotation is hot garbage, and they are going to be very conservative with Richards when he returns. Their offense is very solid, and I like the revere/maybin platoon in LF. However, the sketchy SP and bullpen leaves a lot to be desired. This makes me think that these projections favor offenses over pitching
            Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic. ~Crash Davis

            Comment


            • #7
              Regarding the Giants I think they are good but the dodgers have a lot more depth. But if everything goes right the Giants could challenge the dodgers.
              I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by dominik View Post
                Regarding the Giants I think they are good but the dodgers have a lot more depth. But if everything goes right the Giants could challenge the dodgers.
                That's true and I give the Dodgers the slight edge. I just dont think the Dodgers are 7 games better than the Giants. Their run differentials from last season were basically the same (+87 for the Dodgers, +84 for the Giants) and the Giants late inning bullpen was atrocious. They lost something like 11 games leading after 8 innings and the Giants had zero 9th inning comebacks. That combination was the difference last season.
                Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Zito75 View Post
                  I'd be thrilled if the A's pulled off 77 wins. Our roster is literally garbage.
                  Not literally it isn't, but the clubhouse has been literally garbage recently, because of that sewage problem.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post
                    Not literally it isn't, but the clubhouse has been literally garbage recently, because of that sewage problem.
                    We have Khris Davis... that's really about it. Our 1B is terrible, no other real pop in the outfield. Semien is feast or famine. Plouffe can barely hit his weight.
                    Vogt has regressed. I think 71 wins is tops, especially with Sonny "Dead Arm" Grey as our anchor.
                    WAR? Prove it!

                    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                      That's true and I give the Dodgers the slight edge. I just dont think the Dodgers are 7 games better than the Giants. Their run differentials from last season were basically the same (+87 for the Dodgers, +84 for the Giants) and the Giants late inning bullpen was atrocious. They lost something like 11 games leading after 8 innings and the Giants had zero 9th inning comebacks. That combination was the difference last season.
                      7 games is looking pretty good right about now, isn't it?
                      2016 World Series Champions

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