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Harper is healthy

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    I meant 2016. Saying it was higher than 2015 would have cotradicted the rest of the post.

    Yeah, a true talent 10 + WAR ceiling is something fewer than 10 players in history have had.
    I think we're both stuck in 2016. I read that without even noticing. Also sometimes refer to 2016 as this season still instead of last season. Maybe my internal calendar will flip come Opening Day.
    2016 World Series Champions

    Comment


    • #17
      I wouldn't entirely dismiss the possibility that Harper could have another season like 2015. He showed the same promise early in 2013 before getting injured. He was also out for a long time with an injury in 2014, so if we take the stories of a shoulder problem last year seriously, he's only had two fully healthy seasons, 2012, when he was only 19, and 2015. And of course from a very young age he was considered the best prospect in years, so if anyone could have another season like 2015, it would be him. He's still at an age that traditionally has been below a player's peak years, so whatever one thinks of as his real baseline performance to date, there is good reason to think he will improve on it.
      Last edited by Stolensingle; 03-19-2017, 06:39 PM.

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      • #18
        Double post
        Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 03-19-2017, 07:08 PM.
        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post
          I wouldn't entirely dismiss the possibility that Harper could have another season like 2015. He showed the same promise early in 2013 before getting injured. He was also out for a long time with an injury in 2014, so if we take the stories of a shoulder problem last year seriously, he's only had two fully healthy seasons, 2012, when he was only 19, and 2015. And of course from a very young age he was considered the best prospect in years, so if anyone could have another season like 2015, it would be him. He's still at an age that traditionally has been below a player's peak years, so whatever one thinks of as his real baseline performance to date, there is good reason to think he will improve on it.
          Of course I am not entirely dismissing it. It is just not a statistical likelihood. It took massive outliers in both BABIP and HR/FB and extreme health to put up numbers way better than anything he did before or in 2016. Of course he can repeat 2015...some people get tons of BABIP and GR/FB luck more than once. But based on all of the peripherals and trends, his true talent level clearly seems in the middle of 2015 and 2016. And yes - his true talent level probably is increasing some at this age. And a guy inbetween 2015 and 2016 would still be a heck of a baseball player. There are only a handful of players who can data fluctuation their way into a 2015 Harper season, and Harper is still one who can.

          Has the organization said anything about the injury? Every player who has has on off-year claims injury or mechanics and then comes into camp the next year in "T.B.S.O.M.L"
          Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 03-19-2017, 07:33 PM.
          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

          1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


          The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
          The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post
            I wouldn't entirely dismiss the possibility that Harper could have another season like 2015. He showed the same promise early in 2013 before getting injured. He was also out for a long time with an injury in 2014, so if we take the stories of a shoulder problem last year seriously, he's only had two fully healthy seasons, 2012, when he was only 19, and 2015. And of course from a very young age he was considered the best prospect in years, so if anyone could have another season like 2015, it would be him. He's still at an age that traditionally has been below a player's peak years, so whatever one thinks of as his real baseline performance to date, there is good reason to think he will improve on it.
            I agree with this. I've always considered Harper like a Frank Robinson 2.0. Harper has been a baseball prodigy since he was 9 years old. He's dominated every level he's played in often being several years younger than everyone else in his league. The NL is no different. Now, I don't think 2015 is quite Harper's normal level in the sense that he will do that every season but I don't see why he can't have a few 2015 type seasons every one in a while. Let's remember Harper is only 24 years old now and will be 24 the entire 2017 season. I think .290-.300 BA, .390-.410 OBP, .580-.600 SLG are reasonable stats for Harper in 2017 assuming he can stay healthy.
            Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 03-19-2017, 08:26 PM.
            Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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            • #21
              Originally posted by riffwraith View Post
              The player Bryce Harper is good for baseball - absolutely. The person Bryce Harper is not. Not until he grows up, and learns the meaning of the word respect.
              Has he been bad lately? I had thought he had grown up a bit.
              "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

              -Bill James

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              • #22
                Maybe you feel that way because people focused on how he was underperforming and not how he was acting.
                46 wins to match last year's total

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
                  Maybe you feel that way because people focused on how he was underperforming and not how he was acting.
                  Perhaps, or maybe it is because he is playing in DC and I don't get to see many of their games. Or maybe the beard has a calming effect.

                  I just hadn't really heard too much out of him outside the Papelbon fight, and even then I feel like that was much more Papelbon than Harper.
                  "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

                  -Bill James

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by sturg1dj View Post
                    Perhaps, or maybe it is because he is playing in DC and I don't get to see many of their games. Or maybe the beard has a calming effect.

                    I just hadn't really heard too much out of him outside the Papelbon fight, and even then I feel like that was much more Papelbon than Harper.
                    If memory serves, that's how the fight was reported.
                    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

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                    • #25
                      Jeff Sullivan at FG asks: Who do you pick to have a better year, Manny Machado or Bryce Harper? It's an interesting match-up, because they're about the same age, and have about the same career WAR total, but Manny has put up several consistently excellent seasons, while Harper has put up one season for the ages, but has been much less impressive the rest of the time.

                      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bryce...manny-machado/

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Stolensingle View Post
                        Jeff Sullivan at FG asks: Who do you pick to have a better year, Manny Machado or Bryce Harper? It's an interesting match-up, because they're about the same age, and have about the same career WAR total, but Manny has put up several consistently excellent seasons, while Harper has put up one season for the ages, but has been much less impressive the rest of the time.

                        http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/bryce...manny-machado/
                        I would pick Harper, if he can stay healthy. That's a big if. I hope he can, baseball needs superheroes and Harper has a chance to be one on the highest level.

                        I think Matt Williams put it out there last year that Harper was hurting. I don't have a source, I just remember reading that. Harper has really only been healthy for two seasons in his career, so his health is far from a guarantee.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Still early, but Harper so far is looking a lot more like 2015 than 2016. Hit his 7th HR and 6th 2B today. At this point, leads the majors in BA, OBP and OPS. Tied for first in RBI, and second in runs. Given the recent power spike in baseball, and the quality of the lineup surrounding Harper, he could put up some awesome traditional stats this season.

                          If he has another year like 2015, the bidding for him when he becomes available will be insane.

                          Mr. April: Per wRC+, Harper has had only one poor April in five seasons, in 2014, and even then he was no worse in that month than in the rest of the season. His MVP season of 2015 has so far been the only one in which he hit better after April, but he was still very good in that first month, well above his career value and certainly in elite territory.

                          Code:
                          Year	April	Rest of Season		
                          2013	216	    115		
                          2014	115	    115		
                          2015	162	    204		
                          2016	179	    100		
                          2017 	259
                          Last edited by Stolensingle; 04-22-2017, 04:35 PM.

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                          • #28
                            There's talk of Harper getting a $400 million contract.
                            Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
                              There's talk of Harper getting a $400 million contract.
                              More, even. He is going to be 26 when he hits FA. Don't put it past some AL team giving him a 14 yr/35 per contract, plus a 10 mil signing bonus to make it the first half a billion dollar contract. Eek.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by riffwraith View Post
                                More, even. He is going to be 26 when he hits FA. Don't put it past some AL team giving him a 14 yr/35 per contract, plus a 10 mil signing bonus to make it the first half a billion dollar contract. Eek.
                                Isn't he a FA after this year? Or is there another year because he didn't come up until the end of April in 2012? But he came up at the same time as Trout, and Trout's FA years begin next year.

                                Edit: OK, I checked, you're right, he becomes a FA after 2018. Presumably 2012 doesn't count as a full year of service, because he missed the first several weeks of the season. But I don't get why Trout is a year ahead of him, because Trout missed essentially the same length of time.

                                In any case, if he has another season this year anything like two years ago, he may well get more than $35 million a year. That is about 4 WAR by current or projected standards, and in 2015, Harper put up 10 WAR. I could easily see him getting half a billion for ten years, given that he would be expected to be still highly productive at the end of that ten year period. Remember, the typical mega-contract begins when a player is in his late 20s, or even later, and the team assumes that they're only going to get the benefit of great production for the first few years. In Harper's case, he would be expected to be still close to his peak through most of the ten years. If he gets a longer contract, it would be worth even more.
                                Last edited by Stolensingle; 04-23-2017, 12:08 AM.

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