Statistical Breakdown

[brett]

I started this for my own statistical purposes in rating the teams. I will begin with raw data only for SP, RP, Lineup, Bench and Fielding, then I will subjectify them. I really just needed to get started because it is quite a chore. Feel free to discuss. I may post a data only thread later.

[brett]

See thread "Brett's worksheet"

[brett]

I will be posting another set of averages in italics which are straight up averages rating every pitcher though the same number of innings. The bold averages over-weight the huge inning guys of course. The "equal weight" average will underrate legitimate inning eaters, but both averages used together should be valuable.

[AstrosFan]

I was never going for ERA+ with my pitchers, but more fielding independent pitching stats. Vance and Waddell, relative to their leagues, are probably the greatest strikeout artists of all time. But good chart, and I hope to see more like them.

[brett]

I was never going for ERA+ with my pitchers, but more fielding independent pitching stats. Vance and Waddell, relative to their leagues, are probably the greatest strikeout artists of all time. But good chart, and I hope to see more like them.

If I have the time, I will be looking at the actual fielding effects on a pitcher's ERA during their career-though this would be a little more subjective in that there is no great stat. I know it can be significant though. In a given season a pitcher can pitch at a 100 level and produce at a 120 or 80 level with historically great or terrible defenses. This would be very rare though. +/-10 over a 5 year period would be about the limit.

So Waddell and Vance may very well be 10-15 points better in my final analysis, while others may ne 10-15 points worse.

(Well based on BBPro, Waddell is about 6 points better and Vance about 2-2.5 points better, but that's pretty significant, unfortunately Coveleski is 4 points worse, while Bender is about +1. Alltogether it would raise your starters by about 1.3 points on the composite ERA+, but other teams might also drop some).

[brett]

Bullpens. I will probably run this like starters for now. A team will probably need around 300-400 innings from the pen.

I may also try to run Lefty v. Lefty and Righty v. Right OPS against.

[Wade8813]

TSS doesn't have Gordon, AF does (Unless they traded, and I missed the announcement).

[brett]

Thanks! I'll have it up with some numbers tonight!

[brett]

For bullpen, I listed the combined average innings because I figure that a team needs to have at least 400 innings covered by the bullpen to be really set there. If 5 starters each go 200, then there are about 377 innings left for the pen assuming 8.5 innings per game and 458 assuming 9.0 innings per game.

[Wade8813]

You have both TSS and WL listed as having Plesac, and you missed that DMF has Eckersley.

[Erik Bedard]

I'm pleasantly surprised by my bullpen. Probably top 5, with my rotation. And I like my lineup more than my pitching. And Gagne looks like the second-best closer option out there, after Rivera.

[Wade8813]

And Gagne looks like the second-best closer option out there, after Rivera.

Based on what? Papelbon, Wagner, Nathan, (and I assume Eck) all have better numbers based off just that chart. And Ryan is basically tied.

[brett]

Based on what? Papelbon, Wagner, Nathan, (and I assume Eck) all have better numbers based off just that chart. And Ryan is basically tied.

I think they are correct now.

[brett]

I'm pleasantly surprised by my bullpen. Probably top 5, with my rotation. And I like my lineup more than my pitching. And Gagne looks like the second-best closer option out there, after Rivera.

I think you need at least 3 more relievers. They are out there

Unfortunately there are not enough top lefties out there.

[Erik Bedard]

Based on what? Papelbon, Wagner, Nathan, (and I assume Eck) all have better numbers based off just that chart. And Ryan is basically tied.

None have as many IP. I kinda missed Nathan and Wagner when skimming the chart, but Papelbon is about 25 IP less than Gagne. Personally, I'd rank it Rivera, Wagner, Gagne, Nathan, Ryan. So third.