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  • #16
    Munson gives me a solid and consistent bat from a nortoriously hard spot to get any offense and he doesn't compromise me on defense. I seriously considered Fisk, but he has too many seasons where he missed time to injury or just flat out didn't produce at the level of a franchise player.
    "I will calmly wait for my induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame."
    - Sammy Sosa

    "Get a comfy chair, Sammy, cause its gonna be a long wait."
    - Craig Ashley (AKA Windy City Fan)

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Sockeye View Post
      Mark makes a good point. IMO it's better to invest and overpay for a player in non-contending years only to have a bargain in the contending years when it could make a difference in a championship team. There are still at least 3 - 4 players who I could see bringing in 20-25 mill per season on the free agent market over the course of the next two free agent cycles. That is seasons 7-11 and 12-16. Thus making them worth the franchise player tag. The secret for the expansion teams is finding those 3 or 4 players who are still producing 15 seasons from now.
      I touched on this in my reply as well. I think to make the FP worthwhile, it has to be a player who is still putting up very decent numbers in their first FA cycle (years 7-11) so the owner will want to keep them. Someone putting up very good numbers in the second cycle (years 12-16) is even more valuable, because if they would bring even 16M on the free agent market, they continue to save you cap space. Of course, the higher the contract they might bring, the more cap space they save you in later years. So the ideal FP is one who puts up very good to excellent numbers for at least a dozen years. Someone who does it from a tough to fill spot offensively (catcher, SS and 2B come to mind) is even more valuable. I expect Joe Morgan to bring 22M+ when he hits free agency in four years, so if he were a FP (which he can't be) that would be a savings of 10M per year for five years on cap space. A player in that mold would be an excellent FP.
      You see, you spend a good deal of your life gripping a baseball and in the end it turns out that it was the other way around all the time. J. Bouton

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      • #18
        The problem is that expansion owners only had '69's draft to apply the FP tag, need to apply it right away, and the field includes very few, if any, that could potentially be worth the money. I do see the point being raised about how overpaying now for a player that would easily pull $20M later makes financial sense but this draft just doesn't have those sort of players.
        1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988

        1889 1890 1899 1900 1916 1920
        1941 1947 1949 1952 1953 1956
        1966 1974 1977 1978


        1983 1985 1995 2004 2008 2009
        2013 2014


        1996 2006

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        • #19
          --If you think none of the 69 rookies will get that kind of money I suggest you review some of the past free agent auctions. If Dave McNally can get 20M+ I think at least one pitcher in this draft will. We haven't had an elite catcher up for auction before, but I'd venture to say that such a creature exists in this draft (perhaps thrice). There is one other player who I would not be surprised to see get such a contract based on a scarcity of talent at his position over the next decade.
          --I think the franchise options are at least as good in 69 as they were for the 64 expansion teams. I can see the case for not exercising that option though. The other thing you have going for you is you may be able to tie up your second franchise player next year (though you wouldn't have to pay the 12M until his 4th season) and have a pair of guys to build around together for a long time.

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          • #20
            Oh, there's definitely big money to be had out of some of these, but I just don't think there's any players that can really be worth the $12 million each season. There's no telling what team will need who and when, obviously. That's the fun of this game.

            But certainly, there are some monster seasons out of this lot. If Vida's 71 were his seventh season and he was on the free agent market, I think he'd top $30 million. And that's a pitcher. Biggest question for everyone is whether you go for the guy that gives you six great, dirt-cheap seasons or someone that has a few for the ages and doesn't play in half of the six.
            1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988

            1889 1890 1899 1900 1916 1920
            1941 1947 1949 1952 1953 1956
            1966 1974 1977 1978


            1983 1985 1995 2004 2008 2009
            2013 2014


            1996 2006

            Comment


            • #21
              From my perspective, I think there's 6-8 franchise players worthy. I don't go as in depth on the fiscal end. To me, it's relatively simple. Take Vida Blue. Sure, you franchise him for 12m a year, and you get 2 useless seasons in 69-70, a medicore 72, an all-time season in 71, and two quality seasons in 73-74.

              Lets say that if you FP Blue, you let him go after 1982. I would ... You've paid him 168 million.

              Now let's look at Vida if we don't franchise him out (thinking he was your first overall pick this draft).
              69-1m
              70-1m
              71-1m
              72-2m
              73-2.25m
              74-2.5m
              75-22m
              76-22m
              77-22m
              78-22m
              79-22m
              80-14m
              81-14m
              82-14m
              83-14m
              84-14m

              Now, his 76 and 78 campaigns are likely league leading campaigns, followed by a good 75, an alright 77, and a horrid 79. However, you're still gonna be paying him say, 22 million for these 5 years, whoever gets him. 1980 is good enough that you're gonna be stuck paying for him for 5 years at around 14m.

              That brings you to 180m total that you've spent on Blue's career, and granted, I think my numbers were conservative...
              AL East Champions: 1981 1982
              AL Pennant: 1982
              NL Central Champions: 2011
              NL Wild Card: 2008

              "It was like coming this close to your dreams and then watching them brush past you like a stranger in a crowd. At the time you don't think much of it; you know, we just don't recognize the significant moments of our lives while they're happening. Back then I thought, 'Well, there'll be other days.' I didn't realize that that was the only day." - Moonlight Graham

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              • #22
                Originally posted by The Dude View Post
                However, you're still gonna be paying him say, 22 million for these 5 years, whoever gets him. 1980 is good enough that you're gonna be stuck paying for him for 5 years at around 14m.
                I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that the winner of the free agent auction has the player for 3, 4 or 5 years depending on what they choose. Theoretically, you could avoid some of the inferior years on the back end of a 5-year contract by only paying for the first three. This means Vida could be much cheaper than your estimates if people are doing a three year, followed by a relatively cheap contract that includes some mediocre years, etc.

                I don't think any of us have written about trade bait. You could always de-franchise one of these players at the right moment and make an absolute killing. Who wouldn't give up an arm and a leg for a pitcher having a career year for only $12 million?
                1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988

                1889 1890 1899 1900 1916 1920
                1941 1947 1949 1952 1953 1956
                1966 1974 1977 1978


                1983 1985 1995 2004 2008 2009
                2013 2014


                1996 2006

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by BlueBlood View Post
                  I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that the winner of the free agent auction has the player for 3, 4 or 5 years depending on what they choose.
                  Very true sir, I had forgotten. However, I did fail to mention something I think about a lot now with my pick coming up soon in the draft ... the idea of forcing prices up higher. Example with Vida Blue again. Say you FP him, that takes one high quality pitcher off the free agent market 6 years from now, thus driving up the prices of other quality pitchers in Free Agent market in said year. You can thus possibley cripple one team fiscally for at least 3 seasons. Granted ... some might consider this dirty ball, but if it's logically in the best interest of your team ...
                  AL East Champions: 1981 1982
                  AL Pennant: 1982
                  NL Central Champions: 2011
                  NL Wild Card: 2008

                  "It was like coming this close to your dreams and then watching them brush past you like a stranger in a crowd. At the time you don't think much of it; you know, we just don't recognize the significant moments of our lives while they're happening. Back then I thought, 'Well, there'll be other days.' I didn't realize that that was the only day." - Moonlight Graham

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    My estimate of Blue's career salary prospects without the FP designation:

                    69-1m
                    70-1m
                    71-1.25m
                    72-2.5m
                    73-2.75m
                    74-3m
                    75-24m
                    76-24m
                    77-24m
                    78-24m
                    79-8m
                    80-8m
                    81-8m
                    82-8m
                    83----
                    85----
                    86- 1M

                    Total - $142.5M
                    Last edited by mac195; 05-27-2008, 12:17 AM.
                    "The numbers are what brought me here; as it appears they brought you."
                    - Danielle Rousseau

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      If it would cost a bit more to franchise a player than the FA projections, um... project to, I would slap the tag on him. There is NO guarantee that you'll keep a player past six seasons with your draft-rights offer. When Gaylord Perry's $25 mil offer was topped I was flabbergasted. So if someone wants to go 27.5 mil, why not a cool 30 mil?

                      Point is, you'll have someone to count on for a good number of seasons, with no salary increase and no threat of leaving.
                      Last edited by J W; 05-27-2008, 11:38 AM.
                      http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploa...-showalter.gif

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                      • #26
                        I was surprised too...but if he can bite the bullet, its his cap.

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                        • #27
                          Wranglers 2nd pick, 1st round

                          After much deliberation and not without some reservations still, the Wranglers have decided to select .....
                          C-Carlton Fisk.

                          I will also exercise our option to tag him as the franchise player. I have made the case with myself for at least 3 other players to take at this pick and they all have their pros and cons.

                          Hopefully he will eventually outlive the 54.5M I will overpay for his first 6 seasons.

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                          • #28
                            Neither Munson nor Fisk was my top catcher on the Gold Sox list (granted, not the best for an expansion team). And the guy I had ahead of them wasn't in my top two.

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                            • #29
                              Great pick with Fisk. Granted, his offense isn't great every year, but think about it, from 1972-1991, you only have one season where you have to look for a starting catcher. Also, you may overpay him for 69-71, but you will be underpaying him for 75-78, and a streak of great seasons in the early 80's.

                              HM, I understand your long deliberation ... there's a good number of guys worth franchising out for the expansion teams to pick from (IMHO), yet each one has a number of pros and cons. However, the draft is going how I expected it to so far..
                              AL East Champions: 1981 1982
                              AL Pennant: 1982
                              NL Central Champions: 2011
                              NL Wild Card: 2008

                              "It was like coming this close to your dreams and then watching them brush past you like a stranger in a crowd. At the time you don't think much of it; you know, we just don't recognize the significant moments of our lives while they're happening. Back then I thought, 'Well, there'll be other days.' I didn't realize that that was the only day." - Moonlight Graham

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by J W View Post
                                Point is, you'll have someone to count on for a good number of seasons, with no salary increase and no threat of leaving.
                                And no need to waste draft picks trying to fill up said position. I hear you. An extra $10/20 million for a player that performs consistently well is certainly worthwhile in order to save time, stress, etc.

                                Oh, guess it's my pick. I can either make a run for it or sell him big when need be. P - Vida Blue
                                1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988

                                1889 1890 1899 1900 1916 1920
                                1941 1947 1949 1952 1953 1956
                                1966 1974 1977 1978


                                1983 1985 1995 2004 2008 2009
                                2013 2014


                                1996 2006

                                Comment

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