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  • Kenny Lofton- HOF?

    What do you guys think?

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/loftoke01.shtml

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/loftoke01.shtml

    http://www.baseballtruth.com/leading...off_082603.htm
    24
    Yes, he'll make it to Cooperstown
    4.17%
    1
    He has a chance if he finishes strong
    16.67%
    4
    He doesn't belong in the HOF
    79.17%
    19

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by csh19792001; 08-02-2005, 11:26 PM.

  • #2
    Lofton is 38 years old, and while he is having a fine year with the Phillies, its unlikely he will significantly add to his career totals. He was a fine leadoff man and centerfielder for many years. Yet, he lacks any of the "magic" numbers or milestones that voters love. His steal totals are impressive, but he's not near the top all time and Willie Wilson, Brett Butler, and Otis Nixon are a few relative contemporaries that have similar totals, and no one is campaigning for them to make the hall. I'd say Lofton is highly unlikely to make the hall.

    Now, is he worthy is another question. Lofton was above average in drawing walks and making contact, but he wasn't especially outstanding at either. His steal totals and steal success rate are very impressive. His defense was good, but not great enough to be a major factor for him. His value comes as a leadoff man, so I think its fair to compare him to other great leadoff hitters. The problem is there are very few pure leadoff men in the HOF. Brock is in, but he really wasn't a good leadoff man. He made it for 3k hits and the steals record, and Lofton is not likely to make it to either milestone. Two great leadoff men and future HOFers do spring to mind, Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines, let's see how he stacks up. I'm going to compare them strictly on leadoff man characteristics.

    Steal success rate
    Tim Raines 84%
    Henderson: 80%
    Lofton: 79%

    OBP+
    Henderson 123
    Raines 116
    Lofton 109

    AB/K
    Raines 9.2
    Lofton 7.7
    Henderson 6.5

    BB to K Ratio
    Raines 1.37
    Henderson 1.29
    Lofton .92

    Top ten in times on base
    Henderson 10 (one first place finish)
    Raines 8 (3 first place finishes)
    Lofton 2 (never higher than 3rd)

    Defensively, Lofton is the most celebrated of the three, and he played CF. Henderson played 500 games in CF, but he and Raines are mostly known as left fielders. However, their RF+ in their prime years is comparable to Lofton's numbers in his best years. So his defensive edge wouldn't be as large as one might guess.

    All and all, I'd say Lofton falls short of being a great leadoff man, and there for falls short of deserving the HOF.
    "I will calmly wait for my induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame."
    - Sammy Sosa

    "Get a comfy chair, Sammy, cause its gonna be a long wait."
    - Craig Ashley (AKA Windy City Fan)

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by csh19792001
      It says Galarraga and Santiago are possible Hall of Famers while Sheffield, CJones and Vlad are unlikely Hall of Famers
      Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
      Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

      Comment


      • #4
        Being a GG CF should help him as there should be slightly different standards for a CF than for a corner OF. However, as Windy City Fan already said, Lofton's career is not too different for Brett Butler's and Willie Wilson's (I believe all are a big step up from Otis Nixon; Devon White probably fits better in this group); and none of these guys have sniffed the Hall.

        I think if someone wants to question a 90s CF, Bernie Williams would probably make the better debate. Bernie is a notch below, but I can definitely see arguments in his favor. If nothing else, Bernie would have made it interesting if not for declining so badly the past three seasons.

        Comment


        • #5
          I would love to see Kenny in the hall. But....I really don't see him getting the right numbers unless he continues playing at a high level for another 5 or 6 years, which is unlikely.

          He is one of those guys who seems to be able to make things happen on the diamond, both on the bases and in the field. That attribute would make me love to have one or two Loftons on a team I was managing, but it isn't a measurable stat that will earn him HOF honors...
          "The big thing about (Roberto) Clemente is that he can hit any pitch. I don't mean only strikes. He can hit a ball off his ankles or off his ear." -Hall of Fame pitcher Juan Marichal

          Comment


          • #6
            No way!

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Windy City Fan

              All and all, I'd say Lofton falls short of being a great leadoff man, and there for falls short of deserving the HOF.
              But you're comparing him (possibly) the greatest two leadoff men in baseball history, right? No way he'd stand up to them, but considering there are almost 200 players in the HOF, Raines and The Rickey is setting the bar awfully high, I think. However, in the end I agree with you- I don't see him as a HOFer upon closer analysis.

              The positives:
              Lofton won 4 straight Gold Gloves, and had excellent range.

              Look at his runs/game during his prime (it was outstanding in his prime, and is still very good now).
              He was always a very good hitter for average (hit over .300 6 times in 7 years). He was probably the fastest player in baseball during the 90's. His was an oustanding baserunner, and his basestealing prowess is obvious- he led in steals 5 years in a row, and he was in the top 10 in triples many times.

              Negatives:
              Apparently he didn't walk enough or hit for enough power to be that productive, overall. He never had a good arm, but then, guys ran on him and he ended up with lots of assists/year. He's 38 and given his health, probably only has a couple years left. He only earned 247 Win Shares in his entire career, and never had more than 25 in a season (although he did have 21 or more every year from 1992 till 1998).

              He was always exciting and inciting, probably better than his numbers, however even if it is a rough estimate, 247 career Win Shares isn't really Hall worthy, is it?

              Bill Dahlen was a leadoff hitter who garnered 394 career Win Shares- that's the most of anyone currently eligible but not yet elected into the Hall of Fame. Perhaps his is a much more viable case.

              Comment


              • #8
                quick and dirty answer: heck no.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by klsm54
                  I would love to see Kenny in the hall. But....I really don't see him getting the right numbers unless he continues playing at a high level for another 5 or 6 years, which is unlikely.

                  He is one of those guys who seems to be able to make things happen on the diamond, both on the bases and in the field. That attribute would make me love to have one or two Loftons on a team I was managing
                  I'd love to see him in, too, I have one of his game-used jerseys
                  Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
                  Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Lofton in the Hall

                    I don't know if any of you just heard it, but a caller pointed out on XM On deck that every team that Lofton is on does well, but has never won anything. Actually, a lot of the teams that he's been on have lost painfully. This really doesn't have anything to do with him, I just think its sort of strange. Up until a few years ago, a team that had Lofton always did well. The '02 Giants and '03 Cubs benefited from his leadoff skills. In his prime, he was one of, if not the best leadoff hitter, but let me just chronicle those meltdowns.

                    Those great Indians never won anything.
                    In '02 I believe he had the pennant winning hit, but his team blew a 5-0 in Game 6 and lost in 7
                    In '03 the Cubs lost, but everyone already knows about that.
                    In '04 the Yankees blew a 3-0 series lead. He didn't really play a part.

                    Three years in a row - Coincidence?

                    I guess it should be noted that he was not on the '97 Indians team which blew a ninth inning lead in Game 7 of the World Series, but he did lose as a member of the Braves to the Marlins.
                    Eamus Catuli3818

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Kenny Lofton?

                      Who thinks Kenny should get in? He's got over 2000 hits and a life time average of .299.
                      "He studied hitting like a broker studies the stock market, how a scribe studies the scriptures" - Carl Yastrzemski on Ted Williams

                      "The greatest clutch hitter in Red Sox history has done it again! Big Papi!" - Don Orsillo's call of Ortiz's walk-off single

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        no, hes not really dominant he has just played for a long time

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I'm probably the only one here, but I'd give Lofton a vote for the Hall. People forget just how great he was in the '90s. The quality of his fielding has plummeted in the past several seasons, but keep in mind that at one time he was one of the best in the game. I can see the arguments against him not being "dominant" enough, but his 6 100+ run seasons, 600 SBs, and .299 average, combined with his fielding and being a spark plug on all those teams in the post season makes him a Hall of Famer to me.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by The Commissioner
                            I'm probably the only one here, but I'd give Lofton a vote for the Hall. People forget just how great he was in the '90s. The quality of his fielding has plummeted in the past several seasons, but keep in mind that at one time he was one of the best in the game. I can see the arguments against him not being "dominant" enough, but his 6 100+ run seasons, 600 SBs, and .299 average, combined with his fielding and being a spark plug on all those teams in the post season makes him a Hall of Famer to me.
                            He's not likely to make it to 3,000 hits. If he can get his BA over .300, it will help. A .300 lifetime BA with 2,500 plus hits puts Lofton in range.
                            "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

                            NL President Ford Frick, 1947

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Always liked Lofton. In his prime, I was tempted to take him over Griffey as the best in their league. Spent a good number of years as a productive, classy veteran.

                              Not a Hall-of-Famer. Good player. Good memories.
                              "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                              "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                              "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                              "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                              Comment

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