Should Palmeiro be inducted in HOF?

[wilkerson_rulz-06]

Should Palmeiro be inducted in HOF?

[Mattingly]

Moving here, from CE.

As to my opinion, had he retired last season, I wouldn't have minded one bit, since he had lots of firepower. As is, even though I'm not much of an opinion to worry about on this, he's just ridiculously tainted his legacy for me to feel comfortable with him on the big stage in Cooperstown, in both being introduced, accepting the honors, then seeing him wander around the stanizol issue, where it came from, and his blaming of Miggy Tejada on this.

[runningshoes]

Maybe you could remove the "he's a criminal" part from the poll so I can vote no?

[538280]

Palmeiro did no doubt taint his legacy by testing positive for steroids, but we have no evidence whatsoever he was using them in his prime, and as far as I'm concerned we have to have definitive evidence like that to keep a guy with his credentials out. To give you an idea of his credentials, here are his ten most similar players:

1.Eddie Murray (887) *
2.Frank Robinson (887) *
3.Dave Winfield (836) *
4.Reggie Jackson (829) *
5.Mel Ott (810) *
6.Al Kaline (788) *
7.Fred McGriff (778)
8.Harold Baines (763)
9.Carl Yastrzemski (762) *
10.Willie Mays (751) *

When eight of your ten most similar players are in the HOF, you unmistakably have the numbers to get in. =There are very good reasons to rate Palmeiro behind all of his top comps, but this still screams HOFer out at everyone.

He is very comparable to Eddie Murray, actually. Not only are their career totals very similar, but their relative stats are the same. Palmeiro's relative line is 107/109/122, Murray's is 110/109/119.

I'm one of the people who thinks Eddie Murray is a slam-dunk HOFer, so I have to support Palmeiro as well because of a lack of hard steroid evidence througout his career. Some people don't really like Eddie Murray, though, because of his lack of an outstanding peak. Palmeiro has the same problem, but you really have to focus 100% on peak to disregard those career totals.

[wilkerson_rulz-06]

Maybe you could remove the "he's a criminal" part from the poll so I can vote no?

Sorry, can't edit the polls.

[Cubano100%]

Either you allow everyone to go to the Hall that has the numbers or you don't. Bonds, McGuire, Palmeiro, Canseco, Giambi and many others were suspected to use steroids. Everybody knew it and let it go. Team owners, GMs, managers, commisioner, players, fans and so on. Everybody enjoyed watching HRs flying out of ballparks.

Put a big * for everyone I mentioned above(owners, ...) that had anything to do with baseball from 1990-2005.

Keep in mind: How many times did he tested positive for steroids before last year?

I know the quality of testing was questionable too.

[Cougar]

This is precisely the reason why there's a waiting period for the Hall vote. It lets emotions cool, and allows voters to gain perspective on the players.

I voted "maybe" for that reason. I rather suspect he'll get inducted eventually, though.

[Blackout]

Babe Ruths the only guy in the HOF?

anyways, I say no

[Yankeebiscuitfan]

Maybe you could remove the "he's a criminal" part from the poll so I can vote no?

I think the same way. He did something wrong, no doubt about it. But it is vastly exaggerated to say that he is a criminal.

IMO he doesn't belong in the HOF anymore.

[Chadwick]

Sorry, can't edit the polls.

No, but I can. The "criminal" clause has been removed.

As to my opinion, I'm squarely in 538280's camp on this one. Well said!

[Bench 5]

Palmeiro did no doubt taint his legacy by testing positive for steroids, but we have no evidence whatsoever he was using them in his prime, and as far as I'm concerned we have to have definitive evidence like that to keep a guy with his credentials out. To give you an idea of his credentials, here are his ten most similar players:

1.Eddie Murray (887) *
2.Frank Robinson (887) *
3.Dave Winfield (836) *
4.Reggie Jackson (829) *
5.Mel Ott (810) *
6.Al Kaline (788) *
7.Fred McGriff (778)
8.Harold Baines (763)
9.Carl Yastrzemski (762) *
10.Willie Mays (751) *

When eight of your ten most similar players are in the HOF, you unmistakably have the numbers to get in. =There are very good reasons to rate Palmeiro behind all of his top comps, but this still screams HOFer out at everyone.

He is very comparable to Eddie Murray, actually. Not only are their career totals very similar, but their relative stats are the same. Palmeiro's relative line is 107/109/122, Murray's is 110/109/119.

I'm one of the people who thinks Eddie Murray is a slam-dunk HOFer, so I have to support Palmeiro as well because of a lack of hard steroid evidence througout his career. Some people don't really like Eddie Murray, though, because of his lack of an outstanding peak. Palmeiro has the same problem, but you really have to focus 100% on peak to disregard those career totals.

There IS evidence that he took steroids before he tested positive. Jose Canseco states in his book that he taught Palmeiro how to take steroids and that he personally injected him (as well as I-Rod and Juan-Gon). So far everyone that Jose identified as a user has been found to be a likely user..... e.g. Raffy tested positive this year, evidence was released that Mark "I'm not here to talk about the past" McGwire was under investigation by authorities for steroid use in the ealry 1990's, I-Rod suspiciously showed up to camp this year looking like Mini-Me, etc.

Here's Raffy's stats based upon a 550 AB season pre-1993 - before Canseco claims he taught him about steroid use:

AB 550
H 163
2B 33
3B 4
HR 16
RBI 71
BB 51
BA .296
SA .457
OBA .356

Here's his stats from 1993 going forward pro-rated to 550 AB:

AB 550
H 157
2B 30
3B 1
HR 36
RBI 108
BB 80
BA .285
SA .541
OBA .376

Prior to meeting Canseco, Raffy was a good player along the lines of Keith Hernandez, Bill Buckner, Mark Grace. All good solid players but not HOF'ers.

After Canseco claims he taught Raffy about steroids he became one of the best home-run hitters in the game and a major run producer.

I tend to agree that when it comes to this generation it has to be all or nothing when it comes to possible steroid users. So if we elect Bonds, McGwire, Sosa etc, then Raffy should go in too.

I watched Raffy play when he came up with the Cubs. He was a good line drive hitter but nobody projected him to become a 40 HR guy. Maybe a 20-25 HR guy plus a nice average. I think the consensus in Chicago before he was traded was that Mark Grace was the better hitter of the two. There are some other reason he was supposedly traded by the Cubs but I won't go into them.

[digglahhh]

Being accused of taking steroids is not particularly good "evidence" in and of itself. In light of his positive test last year though, we have to give a substantial amount of credence to Canseco's claims about Raffy.

I don't have serious doubts about Canseco's credibity, Doing so is to fall for the trick that appear earliest in the book (major props to anyone who got that George Carlin reference). If you can't refute the credibility of the specific claim, attack the overall credibility of the source who made it.

[pretorius]

He reminds me somewhat stat wise as being like a Jake Beckley.

I say he is borderline but I think I would take McGriff over him.

Looking at accrued stats and career stats alone I would say yes he deserves in the Hall in the Don Sutton, Early Wynn, Sam Rice, Jake Beckley, Zach Wheat kind of way.

He was not a league leader kind of player. Barely even a top 5 kind of guy. Single digit black ink. Has never led the league in any true power category...except maybe once in doubles.

Even as you compare him to contemporaries he drops off.

In 1988 his first full year (although this year he played outfield here is how he stands when it comes to win shares against first sackers.

Will Clark 37, McGwire 28, George Brett 26, Galarraga 25, McGriff 24, Mattingly 24, Glenn Davis 23, Joyner 22, Eddie Murray 21, Hrbek 19, Alvin Davis 18, Pedro Guerrero 18, Pete O'Brien 17....Palmeiro 17.

In 89 and now a full first baseman..the win share compare

Will Clark 44, Jack Clark 31, McGriff 30, Glenn Davis 30, Pedro Guerrero 30, Alvin Davis 26, Mattingly 26, Grace 25, Nick Esasky 24, McGwire 21, Murray 21, Joyner 19, Randy Milligan 19, Hrbek 18, George Brett 17....Palmeiro 17

1990

Murray 31, Cecil Fielder 29, McGwire 27, Brett 26, McGriff 26, Will Clark 25, Dave Magadan 25, Grace 22, Palmeiro 22

1991

Frank Thomas 34, Will Clark 34, Fielder 26, Palmeiro 26

1992

Thomas 33, McGwire 29, Bagwell 29, W. Clark 28, McGriff 27, Grace 25, John Kruk 24, Palmeiro 24

1993

Olerud 37, Thomas 32, Palmeiro 31

1994

Bagwell 30, Thomas 25, McGriff 22, Will Clark 19, Craig Jeffries 17, Mo Vaughn 17, Palmeiro 17

1995

Thomas 28, Eric Karros 25, Vaughn 24, McGwire 23, Grace 23, Palmeiro 21

1996

Bagwell 41, Palmeiro 31

1997

Thomas 39, Bagwell 32, JT Snow 28, Tino Martinez 27, Olerud 27, Thome 26, McGwire 25, Tony Clark 24, Vaughn 22, Wally Joyner 21, Grace 20, Galaragga 20, Erstad 19, Delgado 18, Karros 18, Palmeiro 18

1998

McGwire 41, Olerud 34, Bagwell 29, Grace 27, Galaragga 27, Thomas 25, Vaughn 25, Delgado 24, Palmeiro 24

1999

Bagwell 37, Palmeiro 31

2000

Giambi 38, Delgado 36, Thomas 34, Helton 29, Mike Sweeney 26, Bagwell 25, Klesko 23, Palmeiro 23

2001

Giambi 38, Thome 31, Bagwell 30, Klesko 29, Helton 26, Palmeiro 23

2002

Giambi 34, Thome 34, Klesko 31, Olerud 27, Helton 27, Delgado 26, Derek Lee 23, Richie Sexson 22, Bagwell 21, Sweeney 19, Palmeiro 19

2003

Helton 35, Delgado 33, Thome 30, Gimabi 28, Sexson 28, Lee 25, Thomas 23, Bagwell 22, Palmeiro 19.

I am sure I missed some but anyway.....


He was never a dominant player. Never close to an MVP. Never the best at his position. Many years not even in the top 5 at his position.

Overall he is slightly ahead of McGriff but I have to dock him some on the steroids thing so he falls behind Mcgriff on my hall ballot. I dock Bonds and Mcgwire and they haven't even been caught.

Palmeiro was outed by a person who witnessed it firsthand. Sure that person may be as trustworthy as a talking snake but Palmeiro failed a test so I think you can severly elevate the likelyhood of him abusing. I believe Canseco when it comes to McGwire and Palmeiro. Given McGwire all but admitting guilt before congress and raffy testing positive I think it goes beyond simple speculation.

He is borderline to me.

Amongst his contemporaries he is behind McGwire, Murray, Bagwell, Thomas and when Thome, Delgado, Giambi, Helton and Pujols play longer and eventually retire I expect him to fall behind them. He may also be behind McGriff, Clark and even Mattingly or if you dock hard enough for roids Grace.

He may not be in the top 10 at his position within his era.

I also think he is closer to Tino Martinez and John Olerud then he is to Bagwell and Thomas.

Him being excluded wouldn't be unfair to me. I think he is borderline like McGriff.

[538280]

He reminds me somewhat stat wise as being like a Jake Beckley.

Except he was much better than Beckley. Using just raw Win Shares (no league quality adjustment, which is a big difference between them), here's how they look (through 2004):

Career
Palmeiro-384
Beckley-318

3 year peak
Palmeiro-31, 30, 30
Beckley-23, 21, 21

Per 162 games
Palmeiro-22.86
Beckley-21.59

Even ignoring the HUGE difference between 1890s baseball and 1990s baseball, Palmeiro is significantly better.

You complain about Palmeiro's low black ink, well, Beckley's only ever league lead was triples in 1890. And Palmeiro played in a league with more teams.

Even as you compare him to contemporaries he drops off.

In 1988 his first full year (although this year he played outfield here is how he stands when it comes to win shares against first sackers.

Will Clark 37, McGwire 28, George Brett 26, Galarraga 25, McGriff 24, Mattingly 24, Glenn Davis 23, Joyner 22, Eddie Murray 21, Hrbek 19, Alvin Davis 18, Pedro Guerrero 18, Pete O'Brien 17....Palmeiro 17.

In 89 and now a full first baseman..the win share compare

Will Clark 44, Jack Clark 31, McGriff 30, Glenn Davis 30, Pedro Guerrero 30, Alvin Davis 26, Mattingly 26, Grace 25, Nick Esasky 24, McGwire 21, Murray 21, Joyner 19, Randy Milligan 19, Hrbek 18, George Brett 17....Palmeiro 17

1990

Murray 31, Cecil Fielder 29, McGwire 27, Brett 26, McGriff 26, Will Clark 25, Dave Magadan 25, Grace 22, Palmeiro 22

1991

Frank Thomas 34, Will Clark 34, Fielder 26, Palmeiro 26

1992

Thomas 33, McGwire 29, Bagwell 29, W. Clark 28, McGriff 27, Grace 25, John Kruk 24, Palmeiro 24

1993

Olerud 37, Thomas 32, Palmeiro 31

1994

Bagwell 30, Thomas 25, McGriff 22, Will Clark 19, Craig Jeffries 17, Mo Vaughn 17, Palmeiro 17

1995

Thomas 28, Eric Karros 25, Vaughn 24, McGwire 23, Grace 23, Palmeiro 21

1996

Bagwell 41, Palmeiro 31

1997

Thomas 39, Bagwell 32, JT Snow 28, Tino Martinez 27, Olerud 27, Thome 26, McGwire 25, Tony Clark 24, Vaughn 22, Wally Joyner 21, Grace 20, Galaragga 20, Erstad 19, Delgado 18, Karros 18, Palmeiro 18

1998

McGwire 41, Olerud 34, Bagwell 29, Grace 27, Galaragga 27, Thomas 25, Vaughn 25, Delgado 24, Palmeiro 24

1999

Bagwell 37, Palmeiro 31

2000

Giambi 38, Delgado 36, Thomas 34, Helton 29, Mike Sweeney 26, Bagwell 25, Klesko 23, Palmeiro 23

2001

Giambi 38, Thome 31, Bagwell 30, Klesko 29, Helton 26, Palmeiro 23

2002

Giambi 34, Thome 34, Klesko 31, Olerud 27, Helton 27, Delgado 26, Derek Lee 23, Richie Sexson 22, Bagwell 21, Sweeney 19, Palmeiro 19

2003

Helton 35, Delgado 33, Thome 30, Gimabi 28, Sexson 28, Lee 25, Thomas 23, Bagwell 22, Palmeiro 19.

This means close to nothing whatsoever....Have you realized the truly amazing number of great 1B in the past 15 years? Bagwell, Thomas, McGwire, McGriff, Olerud for the whole time. Clark and Murray at the beginning, and more recently Giambi, Delgado, Helton, Klesko. Lots of great 1B, probably better than any other time period, except maybe the 1930s with Gehrig, Foxx, and Greenberg. Look at the whole decade of the 1990s, Palmeiro is only a hair behind Thomas and Bagwell, who are top tier HOFers, and ahead of McGwire. The top 10 1B of the 1990s, based on Win Shares:

1.Frank Thomas-273
2.Jeff Bagwell-263
3.Rafael Palmeiro-244
4.Mark McGwire-234
5.Fred McGriff-213
6.Mark Grace-210
7.John Olerud-199
8.Will Clark-191
9.Mo Vaughn-168
10.Wally Joyner-160

That's HOF level. The only eligible players in history to total 244 or more Win Shares in a decade who aren't in the HOF are Ron Santo, Dale Murphy, and Bobby Bonds. All three are popular HOF candidates.

He may not be in the top 10 at his position within his era.

This is crazy. What other ten 1B are even close to him in his era?

[KCGHOST]

Endorsing him for the HoF is to endorse a systematic form of cheating. Bending the rules has a long history in baseball so, for now, I am taking a wait and see attitude.