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  • Next Year's Ballot

    The HOF has the following players as eligible to be on the ballot:

    Harold Baines
    Derek Bell
    Dante Bichette
    Bobby Bonilla
    Jeff Brantley
    Jay Buhner
    Ken Caminiti
    Jose Canseco
    Eric Davis
    Tony Fernandez
    Tony Gwynn
    Darryl Hamilton
    Pete Harnisch
    Charlie Hayes
    Glenallen Hill
    Ken Hill
    Stan Javier
    Wally Joyner
    Ramon Martinez
    Mark McGwire
    Paul O’Neill
    Gregg Olson
    Cal Ripken Jr.
    Bret Saberhagen
    Jeff Shaw
    Kevin Tapani
    Devon White
    Bobby Witt

    Who gets in and who should be one-and-done?
    SOUVENEZ-VOUS LES EXPOS!!!
    "The future's uncertain and the end is always near" - Jim Morrison

  • #2
    - Ripken and Gwynn will both get in by good margins.

    - McGwire will be interesting, and I think it will be close with him, but I don't think he'll quite make it next year.

    - Baines might hang on. He was underappreciated when he played, and that never bodes well for Hall of Fame voting.

    - Fernandez probably deserves to hang on, but he'll likely be dropped. Another player that wasn't fully appreciated when he played.

    - Everyone else is likely one and done, though I expect Canseco (some monster seasons, but I think all of the off the field stuff will do him in), Davis (sympathy for his gallant comeback from major injury in 1990 and then from cancer), Saberhagen (2 Cy Youngs will attract attention), and O'Neill (being a prominent figure on most recent Yankees dynasty will get him some support) to garner some noticeable support (albeit less than the 5%).

    Comment


    • #3
      It seems pretty clear that both RIpken and Gwynn get in with more than 90% of the vote.

      I don't think McGwire gets elected his first year on the ballot as a sort of punishment for what he did.

      I don't think any holdovers will get in next year, so no Rice and no Goose.

      The following players will probably get dropped w/ less than 5%: Derek Bell, Dante Bichette, Bobby Bonilla (although probably deserves to hang around for a year or two), Jeff Brantley, Jay Buhner, Ken Caminiti, Darryl Hamilton, Pete Harnisch, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, Ken Hill, Stan Javier, Wally Joyner, Ramon Martinez, Gregg Olson, Jeff Shaw, Devon White, and Bobby Witt

      I think all the players that hund on last year also hang on in 2006 with the addition of Harold Baines, Jose Canseco, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Paul O’Neill, and Bret Saberhagen.

      Of these its hard to predict who will get the most support. Its got to be either Baines or Canseco.

      If you just look at Baines' career numbers he looks like a first ballot type of guy w/ over 1600 RBIs (23rd all-time), close to 2900 hits (38th all-time), a 289 career average, 8 times batted over 300, 6 all-star games, 380 hrs (49th all-time), 17th all-time in intentional walks, 16th all-time in games played, kept his nose clean.

      But he never really did anything special in his career except for maybe 1984 or 1985: never hit 30 HRs in one year, only 3 100 RBI seasons, never 100 runs, never 200 hits (although he got 198 in 1985), highest batting average was 312, was a DH for most of his career.

      I believe he will be the person with the most RBIs and hits who is eligible isn't elected. So if the hall voters are only looking at career numbers (and I suspect that a lot only look at career numbers) they might vote for him but certainly not enough to elect him. ANyway, he is a very interesting case.

      Canseco is kind of the opposite of Baines in a lot of ways: His nose is very dirty, was a very flashy player, career numbers aren't so great (1400 RBI (61st all time), <1900 hits), only batted 300 twice, although he does have 460 home runs

      He did some amazing things in his career that Baines never dis: he has an mvp, won a world series with Oakland, hit 30 hr eight times and 40 three times, had 6 100 rbi seasons, was the first 40-40 man, made out with Madonna, and injected McGwire with steroids in the butt.
      Another thing to consider is that he DHd about half his career.

      Its also strange because I think a lot of news media are giving him credit for the current improvement in baseball's steroid's policies, while a lot of other media hate him for tarnishing the game. I don't think anybody would say he tarnished as much as Palmeiro or McGwire did though. So anyway, another interesting case.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Pine Tar
        If you just look at Baines' career numbers he looks like a first ballot type of guy w/ over 1600 RBIs (23rd all-time), close to 2900 hits (38th all-time), a 289 career average, 8 times batted over 300, 6 all-star games, 380 hrs (49th all-time), 17th all-time in intentional walks, 16th all-time in games played, kept his nose clean.

        But he never really did anything special in his career except for maybe 1984 or 1985: never hit 30 HRs in one year, only 3 100 RBI seasons, never 100 runs, never 200 hits (although he got 198 in 1985), highest batting average was 312, was a DH for most of his career.
        You know, I wasn't really supporting Baines until recently. He never received the benifit of the power era that others did because of his injuries and simply it came too late in his career. He played the field well before his injuries and did so in the old Comiskey Park, not exactly the Camden Yards where he played after his injuries. I've got him slightly ahead of Edgar for DHs, but behind Molitor. I look at him as a mini Eddie Murray, although certainly not in the same class.
        Johnson and now Goligoski gone.
        I hope that's all.

        Comment


        • #5
          I always liked Baines, but it was a total gift to the voters than he was unable to reach 3000 hits or 400 home runs. If he had reached both those magic numbers, it would have been hard to keep him out. In the end, he's a model for strong consistency without really reaching that superstar level. A HOF'er should have been considered one at some point of his career.
          Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
          Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
          Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
          Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
          Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose
            I always liked Baines, but it was a total gift to the voters than he was unable to reach 3000 hits or 400 home runs. If he had reached both those magic numbers, it would have been hard to keep him out. In the end, he's a model for strong consistency without really reaching that superstar level. A HOF'er should have been considered one at some point of his career.
            Is he the Don Sutton of hitters? I don't think Sutton was ever a superstar but he got in. I know he reached the magical number of wins with over 300 but it seems to me that the hall has set a precedent for voting for longevity alone in his case. I don't know when I read this but Peter Gammons was being interviewed about the hall in the past year and was asked about Harold Baines and he said he would vote for him. Then the interviewer asked him "before Jim Rice?" and he backed off and said that there is no way Baines should get in if Jim Rice can't get in. Or something to that affect...

            Comment


            • #7
              Ripken and Gwynn are mortal locks. I am not sure about McGwire. My guess is a weak yes.

              Those getting the ax are Derek Bell, Dante Bichette, Bobby Bonilla, Jeff Brantley, Jay Buhner, Ken Caminiti, Jose Canseco, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez,
              Darryl Hamilton, Pete Harnisch, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, Ken Hill, Stan Javier, Wally Joyner, Ramon Martinez, Paul O’Neill, Gregg Olson, Jeff Shaw, Kevin Tapani
              Devon White, and Bobby Witt.

              Baines, O'Neill, and Saberhagen hang on.
              Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Pine Tar
                Is he the Don Sutton of hitters? I don't think Sutton was ever a superstar but he got in. I know he reached the magical number of wins with over 300 but it seems to me that the hall has set a precedent for voting for longevity alone in his case. I don't know when I read this but Peter Gammons was being interviewed about the hall in the past year and was asked about Harold Baines and he said he would vote for him. Then the interviewer asked him "before Jim Rice?" and he backed off and said that there is no way Baines should get in if Jim Rice can't get in. Or something to that affect...
                Not a bad analogy. Sutton minus the magic numbers. (Sutton also got 3000 K).
                Baines's counting numbers overall aren't that much greater than Dave Parker's. And Cobra was a bonafide superstar in his day. And was voted as the AL's best DH a couple of times, I believe, while competing against Baines for that "title". (not sure if that was a Sporting News designation or not, but it happened while with Oakland and Milwaukee after the season.)
                The HOF, itself, has always been a superficial haven that heeds a good amount of attention on fame besides the numbers themselves. Baines never had that little something extra on his resume. Just like Vada Pinson.
                Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
                Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
                Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
                Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
                Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose
                  Not a bad analogy. Sutton minus the magic numbers. (Sutton also got 3000 K).
                  Baines's counting numbers overall aren't that much greater than Dave Parker's. And Cobra was a bonafide superstar in his day. And was voted as the AL's best DH a couple of times, I believe, while competing against Baines for that "title". (not sure if that was a Sporting News designation or not, but it happened while with Oakland and Milwaukee after the season.)
                  The HOF, itself, has always been a superficial haven that heeds a good amount of attention on fame besides the numbers themselves. Baines never had that little something extra on his resume. Just like Vada Pinson.
                  Pinson, another one of the borderlines that I would vote for.
                  Johnson and now Goligoski gone.
                  I hope that's all.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The difference between Sutton and Baines is that Sutton was at least an above-average pitcher for a very long time, and one of the best in the game several times (though never the best or even close to it). Baines was no better than an above-average player at his peak.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      For Sure: Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn

                      Most Likely: Mark McGwire

                      Stay on Ballot: Tony Fernandez, Jay Buhner, Harold Baines


                      I'm sure there are others who will stay (plus holdouts from previous years), but I hope the last three will stay on for a little bit. I don't think they deserve to get in, but they do deserve a shot and some recognition. Putting Jay Buhner there is long-shot, but for personal reasons, I hope he stays on. He did have a few decent HR years, and '95-'97 was good for him (40+ HR's each year). But he was also a great player, who went all out. Fans, players, media loved him. So here's hoping the Bone will garner enough votes to stay on.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Edgartohof
                        For Sure: Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn

                        Most Likely: Mark McGwire

                        Stay on Ballot: Tony Fernandez, Jay Buhner, Harold Baines


                        I'm sure there are others who will stay (plus holdouts from previous years), but I hope the last three will stay on for a little bit. I don't think they deserve to get in, but they do deserve a shot and some recognition. Putting Jay Buhner there is long-shot, but for personal reasons, I hope he stays on. He did have a few decent HR years, and '95-'97 was good for him (40+ HR's each year). But he was also a great player, who went all out. Fans, players, media loved him. So here's hoping the Bone will garner enough votes to stay on.
                        Buhner has absolutely no chance...See Joe Carter (who had a better career).

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Gwynn and Ripken are obvious choices.

                          I don't think Big Mac will make it on the first ballot. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if he was considerably short.

                          I think Baines might get less support than some people think, he wouldn't get my vote. There are way too many already outside who are better choices than he is. Parker was cosiderably better and his "support" is rather meek.

                          Fernandez deserves to stay on the ballot and even garner some moderate support.

                          Saberhagen should stay on too.

                          O'Neil might get a few votes, and will be real close to the 5% barrier, slighty above or below

                          Davis might get some love for his comback, another guy with HOF talent, but not the resume.
                          THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

                          In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            ripken and gwynn: top vote-getters

                            mcgwire: maybe, but probably not. though stat-lovers, the voters are image-conscious. besides, their hypocritical feathers will probably show through.

                            baines: next time 'round:

                            everyone else under 7%
                            "you don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. just get people to stop reading them." -ray bradbury

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose
                              Baines never had that little something extra on his resume. Just like Vada Pinson.
                              On the other hand, Earl Lawson, future leader of the BBWAA didn't have a blood feud with Baines, as he did with Pinson.
                              "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                              "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                              "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                              "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                              Comment

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