Future BBWAA Picks?

[Chadwick]

Who/when do you think the BBWAA will elect over the next several years?

Below are some useful resources for you, as you think about it.

Top Ten Vote-Getters in 2006
400 - Bruce Sutter (elected)
337 - Jim Rice
336 - Goose Gossage
317 - Andre Dawson
277 - Bert Blyleven
234 - Lee Smith
214 - Jack Morris
154 - Tommy John
135 - Steve Garvey
92 - Alan Trammell

Earliest 15-yr Drop-offs
2007 - Garvey
2008 - Concepcion
2009 - John, Rice
2011 - Parker
2012 - Blyleven
2013 - Murphy
2014 - Gossage, Morris
2015 - Mattingly
2016 - Dawson, Trammell
2017 - Smith
2020 - Belle, Hershiser

Notable Future Eligibles
2007 - Harold Baines, Jose Canseco, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Gwynn, Mark McGwire, Cal Ripken, Bret Saberhagen
2008 - David Justice, Tim Raines
2009 - David Cone, Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Matt Williams
2010 - Roberto Alomar, Andres Galarraga, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Robin Ventura
2011 - anyone who retires between 2005-2006; Bagwell? Brown? Clemens? Palmeiro?
2012 - anyone who retires after the 2006 season, but before 2007; Johnson? Thomas? Wells?

So...who's it gonna be? My guesses:

2007 - Gwynn, Ripken
2008 - Gossage, McGwire
2009 - Blyleven, Henderson
2010 - Alomar, Larkin

After that, I have no idea. Dawson will eventually be elected; I'm not confident about any of the others. I'm really not confident the voters will give Raines his due. (He ought to be a first-ballot inductee.)

[KCGHOST]

Unless ESPN gets behind Tim Raines I just can't see him getting enough votes. He is a darling of the statheads, but not of the BBWAA. Very little on his resume jumps right out at you other than being the fourth leading base stealer. Ranking 45th in runs scored is not going to fire anyone up.

Raines had a quite excellence that revolved around not making outs and being someone else's rbi.

[Cowtipper]

Just thought Brad Harris might like to take a look at this.