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Future BBWAA Picks?

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  • Future BBWAA Picks?

    Who/when do you think the BBWAA will elect over the next several years?

    Below are some useful resources for you, as you think about it.

    Top Ten Vote-Getters in 2006
    400 - Bruce Sutter (elected)
    337 - Jim Rice
    336 - Goose Gossage
    317 - Andre Dawson
    277 - Bert Blyleven
    234 - Lee Smith
    214 - Jack Morris
    154 - Tommy John
    135 - Steve Garvey
    92 - Alan Trammell

    Earliest 15-yr Drop-offs
    2007 - Garvey
    2008 - Concepcion
    2009 - John, Rice
    2011 - Parker
    2012 - Blyleven
    2013 - Murphy
    2014 - Gossage, Morris
    2015 - Mattingly
    2016 - Dawson, Trammell
    2017 - Smith
    2020 - Belle, Hershiser

    Notable Future Eligibles
    2007 - Harold Baines, Jose Canseco, Eric Davis, Tony Fernandez, Tony Gwynn, Mark McGwire, Cal Ripken, Bret Saberhagen
    2008 - David Justice, Tim Raines
    2009 - David Cone, Mark Grace, Rickey Henderson, Matt Williams
    2010 - Roberto Alomar, Andres Galarraga, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Robin Ventura
    2011 - anyone who retires between 2005-2006; Bagwell? Brown? Clemens? Palmeiro?
    2012 - anyone who retires after the 2006 season, but before 2007; Johnson? Thomas? Wells?

    So...who's it gonna be? My guesses:

    2007 - Gwynn, Ripken
    2008 - Gossage, McGwire
    2009 - Blyleven, Henderson
    2010 - Alomar, Larkin

    After that, I have no idea. Dawson will eventually be elected; I'm not confident about any of the others. I'm really not confident the voters will give Raines his due. (He ought to be a first-ballot inductee.)
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

  • #2
    Unless ESPN gets behind Tim Raines I just can't see him getting enough votes. He is a darling of the statheads, but not of the BBWAA. Very little on his resume jumps right out at you other than being the fourth leading base stealer. Ranking 45th in runs scored is not going to fire anyone up.

    Raines had a quite excellence that revolved around not making outs and being someone else's rbi.
    Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball


    • #3
      Just thought Brad Harris might like to take a look at this.


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