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A Case for Lolich to get Hall Consideration!

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  • A Case for Lolich to get Hall Consideration!

    The Case for Mickey Lolich in the Hall –

    Career Totals
    W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP BB SO
    217 191 3.44 586 496 195 41 11 3638.1 1099 2832

    More Wins than Drysdale, Lemon, Newhouser or Eckersley.

    Better ERA than Eckersley, Grimes, Wynn.

    More strikeouts, 16th all time, than Young, Spahn, Feller, Mathewson, Drysdale, Eckersley, Koufax, Wynn, Marichal, Grove, Palmer or G.C. Alexander.

    1968 WS MVP, went 3-0 in series

    3 time All Star

    2 time, 20 game winner, including league leading 25 in 1971

    6 times threw 250+ innings, including league leading 376 IP in 1971

    3 times threw 250+ strike outs, including league leading 308 K’s in 1971.



    What do you think?
    32
    Yes
    9.38%
    3
    No
    68.75%
    22
    Maybe
    21.88%
    7
    1968 and 1984, the greatest ever.

  • #2
    Good pitcher, but falls under the line, IMO.

    Had two very nice years in 1971 and 1972. And his 1968 WS was fantastic. But his regular season 1968 was not as impressive as it may look. While he went 17-9, his era was actually worse than league average that year. In fact, for his career, his ERA+ is only 104, meaning he is slightly better than an average pitcher over that time. He also had solid years in 1964 and 1969 but few other seasons really stand out.

    His 11 straight seasons of 14 wins is impressive, but that was all he had. Unless you are really a no-brainer (Koufax, for example), you need more than 12 years (including his 12-18 season) to make a Hall case. He declined pretty fast after age 33. At that point if he were able to pitch another 7 years averaging 12-15 wins per year and make a run towards 300, he may have had a chance. Pitchers need either great peaks or great longevity, and he really had neither.

    Look at this similar pitchers in baseball-reference.com. This doesn't alwasy tell the whole story, but is a pretty good indication of the pitchers that had similar careers. Of his top ten, only bunning is in the Hall, and Bunning is far from a top tier HOFer, if he even deserves to be there at all.
    Last edited by Brooklyn; 02-10-2006, 01:00 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Brooklyn
      Good pitcher, but falls under the line, IMO.

      Had two very nice years in 1971 and 1972. And his 1968 WS was fantastic. But his regular season 1968 was not as impressive as it may look. While he went 17-9, his era was actually worse than league average that year. In fact, for his career, his ERA+ is only 104, meaning he is slightly better than an average pitcher over that time. He also had solid years in 1964 and 1969 but few other seasons really stand out.

      His 11 straight seasons of 14 wins is impressive, but that was all he had. Unless you are really a no-brainer (Koufax, for example), you need more than 12 years (including his 12-18 season) to make a Hall case. He declined pretty fast after age 33. At that point if he were able to pitch another 7 years averaging 12-15 wins per year and make a run towards 300, he may have had a chance. Pitchers need either great peaks or great longevity, and he really had neither.

      Look at this similar pitchers in baseball-reference.com. This doesn't alwasy tell the whole story, but is a pretty good indication of the pitchers that had similar careers. Of his top ten, only bunning is in the Hall, and Bunning is far from a top tier HOFer, if he even deserves to be there at all.

      Koufax only had 12 years total career, 165 wins, only the last 5 or 6 of which were so great. So don't tell me 11 years of 14 wins is not enough.

      As for Bunning, he never should have made it, IMO.
      1968 and 1984, the greatest ever.

      Comment


      • #4
        Nope.

        Eligible pitchers I'd strongly consider putting in before Lolich (not that I would put most of these guys in anyway):

        Bert Blyleven
        Jim Kaat
        Tommy John
        Luis Tiant
        Jack Morris
        Billy Pierce
        Carl Mays
        Wes Ferrell
        Mel Harder
        Jerry Koosman
        Lon Warneke
        Orel Hershiser
        Dave Stieb
        Dwight Gooden
        Jack Quinn
        Wilbur Cooper
        Dennis Martinez
        Frank Tanana
        Paul Derringer
        Bob Welch
        Jim Perry
        Wilbur Wood
        Milt Pappas
        Vida Blue
        Rich Reuschel
        Don Newcombe
        Ed Lopat
        Allie Reynolds
        Dutch Leonard
        Joe Wood
        Last edited by DoubleX; 02-11-2006, 04:57 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Tigerfan1974
          Koufax only had 12 years total career, 165 wins, only the last 5 or 6 of which were so great. So don't tell me 11 years of 14 wins is not enough.
          But how many pitchers ever had a 5 or 6 year stretch like Koufax? Plus Koufax walked away at the young age of 30 after what was not only his finest season, but was also one of the finest seasons ever pitched. Lolich never even had one year that could stand with those 6 years of Koufax.

          Comment


          • #6
            Lolich doesn't cut it. Here's a summary of reasons:

            First, a key point is there's about 70 major league pitchers in the Hall, so a pitcher should be in or very close to that to be a worthy candidate.

            He's 76th in career wins among pitchers.
            He's 138th in black ink among pitchers.
            He's 86th in gray ink among pitchers.
            He's 83rd in HOF standards among pitchers.
            He's 88th in career win shares among pitchers
            His best three years rank him no better than 71st among pitchers (I only used the 100 in the Historical Abstract book, so I'm sure the number is higher.
            His best five consecutive years rank him no better than 69th among pitchers, again only using the latest Historical Abstract.

            Only one of his ten most similar pitchers is in the HOF.

            One thing about the win shares is that they reward those who pitched a lot of innings, so I decided to use the Win Shares book to compare him to guys who got at least 75 win shares in the 60's or 70's when he pitched. Here's what I got:

            He's 23rd in career win shares
            He's 16th in his best three seasons of win shares
            He's 15th in his best five consecutive seasons of win shares.

            So he's behind at least 13 or 14 of his peers over two decades, and baseball has been around 136 years. That's too deep in that pool of pitchers to earn any support from me.

            Jim Albright
            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

            Comment


            • #7
              Mickey Lolich doesn't cut it for me. He was a workhorse which may have resulted in his rather early demise as a decent pitcher.

              He had some fine years but was very inconsistent in regards to the league average.

              Too many look at his '69 WS performance, where he won 3 games and faced down Bob Gibson in Game 7, considering him to be a great pitcher. He's not.

              To the poster who compared him to Sandy Koufax: Lolich never ever had a peak close to what Koufax had. There are some guys who can have a very strong but short peak that are legitimate HOF'ers such as Koufax and Dizzy Dean.

              Yankees Fan Since 1957

              Comment


              • #8
                Interesting post. I too, believe that Mickey falls short of the Hall, but that's not to say that he wasn't an extremely durable and quite effective pitcher for many years. In fact, according to my humble evaluation criteria, Mr. Lolich scored even higher than Jim Kaat, placing 24th all-time among lefties.

                In my mind, his '68 WS masterpiece will always stick out in the forefront.

                Here's how Lolich stacks up against his southpaw contemporaries:

                #21 Tom Glavine 610.668
                #22 Eppa Rixey 610.619
                #23 Tommy John 605.588
                #24 Mickey Lolich 595.394
                #25 Jim Kaat 586.184
                #26 Vida Blue 570.198
                #27 David Wells 567.363

                Comment


                • #9
                  Lets get serious here: Lolich was only a real good pitcher for a couple years and was average at best for the rest of his career. Saying he is better then Wells, Blue and Kaat is also fairly silly. What does he top them in? Maybe best year, but other then that.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Naliamegod
                    Lets get serious here: Lolich was only a real good pitcher for a couple years and was average at best for the rest of his career. Saying he is better then Wells, Blue and Kaat is also fairly silly. What does he top them in? Maybe best year, but other then that.
                    For starters, David Wells is still active, so he's a virtual lock to surpass Lolich by the time he wraps up his career. Regarding Kaat and Blue, Lolich has a better career WHIP, Batting Average Against, and K/BB ratio, more career strikeouts, more complete games, has more post-season success, and was year-in and year-out more durable than either of those 2. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Kaat tends to be overrated due to his longevity and his amazing fielding prowess, while Blue gets extra attention due to his phenomenal rookie campaign. In the end, I feel that Lolich has had a slightly better overall career than those two...but not by much.

                    Also, keep in mind that these scores are just my humble take on a pitcher's overall career value, based on the criteria I devised over the past 3 years.

                    Is it without flaw? Of course not! Do I award too many/too few marks in certain areas? Perhaps. However, you could tweak and re-tweak the figures until the cows come home, and someone will be unhappy with the results. This is just a fun little project I took on, and overall, I'm quite happy with how everyone stacked up.

                    Here's the criteria I used to evaluate every lefty since 1900. Of course, this could also be used to look at righties, if you are so inclined.


                    HOF INDUCTION W/ >75% OF BBWAA VOTE (100)
                    HOF INDUCTION VIA VETERAN'S COMMITTEE (75)
                    PRE-1956 MVP WINNER (50)
                    2ND PLACE MVP (PRE-1956) (40)
                    3RD PLACE MVP (PRE-1956) (30)
                    4TH PLACE MVP (PRE-1956) (20)
                    5TH PLACE MVP (PRE-1956) (10)
                    1956-PRESENT MVP WINNER (30)
                    1956-PRESENT 2ND PLACE MVP VOTING (20)
                    1956-PRESENT 3RD PLACE MVP VOTING (15)
                    1956-PRESENT 4TH PLACE MVP VOTING (10)
                    1956-PRESENT 5TH PLACE MVP VOTING (5)
                    1956-1966 CY YOUNG WINNER (30)
                    1956-1966 2ND PLACE CY YOUNG VOTING (20)
                    1956-1966 3RD PLACE CY YOUNG VOTING (15)
                    1967-PRESENT CY YOUNG WINNER (20)
                    1967-PRESENT 2ND PLACE CY YOUNG VOTING (15)
                    1967-PRESENT 3RD PLACE CY YOUNG VOTING (10)
                    1967-PRESENT 4TH PLACE CY YOUNG VOTING (5)
                    1967-PRESENT 5TH PLACE CY YOUNG VOTING (3)
                    ROOKIE OF THE YEAR (10)
                    2ND PLACE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR VOTING (5)
                    3RD PLACE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR VOTING (3)
                    NO HITTER (10)
                    PERFECT GAME (25)
                    TRIPLE CROWN (20)
                    WORLD SERIES MVP (8)
                    LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP MVP (5)
                    ROLAIDS RELIEVER OF THE YEAR (5)
                    GOLD GLOVE AWARD (5)
                    ALL-STAR APPEARANCE (3)
                    ALL-STAR MVP (2)
                    10 YEAR CAREER (3)
                    EACH YEAR AFTER (.5)
                    15 YEAR CAREER (8)
                    EACH YEAR AFTER (1)
                    20 YEAR CAREER (15)
                    EACH YEAR AFTER (2)
                    3000 CAREER INNINGS (20)
                    EVERY INNING THEREAFTER (.025)
                    2000 CAREER INNINGS (10)
                    EVERY INNING THEREAFTER (.005)
                    1000 CAREER INNINGS (5)
                    EVERY INNING THEREAFTER (.0025)
                    3000 CAREER STRIKEOUTS (25)
                    EVERY STRIKEOUT THEREAFTER (.025)
                    2000 CAREER STRIKEOUTS (15)
                    EVERY STRIKEOUT THEREAFTER (.005)
                    1000 CAREER STRIKEOUTS (5)
                    EVERY STRIKEOUT THEREAFTER (.0025)
                    300 CAREER WINS (25)
                    EVERY WIN THEREAFTER (.5)
                    200 CAREER WINS (15)
                    EVERY WIN THEREAFTER (.05)
                    100 CAREER WINS (5)
                    EVERY WIN THEREAFTER (.025)
                    300 CAREER SAVES (20)
                    EVERY SAVE THEREAFTER (.1)
                    200 CAREER SAVES (10)
                    EVERY SAVE THEREAFTER (.025)
                    100 CAREER SAVES (5)
                    EVERY SAVE THEREAFTER (0.01)
                    25 CAREER SHUTOUTS (10)
                    EVERY SHUTOUT THEREAFTER (1)
                    .600 CAREER WINNING % (MIN. 3000 INN) (15)
                    MINIMUM 2000 INNINGS (10)
                    MINIMUM 1000 INNINGS (5)
                    EVERY .001% THEREAFTER (.25)
                    CAREER ERA 25%>THAN LEAGUE AVG. (MIN 3000 INN) (15)
                    MINIMUM 2000 INNINGS (10)
                    MINIMUM 1000 INNINGS (5)
                    EVERY 1% THEREAFTER (1)
                    CAREER WHIP 10%> THAN LEAGUE AVG. (MIN 3000 INN) (12)
                    MINIMUM 2000 INNINGS (8)
                    MINIMUM 1000 INNINGS (5)
                    EVERY 1% THEREAFTER (1)
                    CAREER ERA 2.75 OR LESS (MIN 3000 INN) (25)
                    MINIMUM 2000 INNINGS (20)
                    MINIMUM 1000 INNINGS (15)
                    EACH .01 RUNS <2.75 (.5)
                    CAREER ERA 3.00 OR LESS (MIN 3000 INN) (15)
                    MINIMUM 2000 INNINGS (10)
                    MINIMUM 1000 INNINGS (5)
                    EACH .01 RUNS <3.00 (.1)
                    CAREER ERA 3.25 OR LESS (MIN 3000 INN) (10)
                    MINIMUM 2000 INNINGS (5)
                    MINIMUM 1000 INNINGS (3)
                    EACH .01 RUNS <3.25 (.025)
                    CAREER WHIP 1.250 OR LESS (MIN 3000 INN) (15)
                    MINIMUM 2000 INNINGS (10)
                    MINIMUM 1000 INNINGS (5)
                    EACH .001 <1.250 (.25)
                    CAREER BAA .250 OR LESS (MIN 3000 INN) (12)
                    MINIMUM 2000 INNINGS (8)
                    MINIMUM 1000 INNINGS (5)
                    EACH .001 <.250 (.5)
                    CAREER K/BB RATIO 2.00 OR GREATER (MIN 3000 INN) (12)
                    MINIMUM 2000 INNINGS (8)
                    MINIMUM 1000 INNINGS (5)
                    EACH .01 > 2.00 (.1)
                    100 CAREER COMPLETE GAMES (1876-1925) (5)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.05)
                    75 CAREER COMPLETE GAMES (1926-1975) (5)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.1)
                    50 CAREER COMPLETE GAMES (1976-present) (5)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.25)
                    25 CAREER COMPLETE GAMES (1976-present) (3)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.05)
                    1000 CAREER WALKS OR LESS (MIN 3000 INN) (25)
                    EACH WALK LESS THAN 1000 (.2)
                    750 CAREER WALKS OR LESS (MIN 2000 INN) (15)
                    EACH WALK LESS THAN 1000 (.05)
                    500 CAREER WALKS OR LESS (MIN 1000 INN) (5)
                    EACH WALK LESS THAN 1000 (.025)
                    LEAGUE LEADER IN ERA, ERA+, WINS, STRIKEOUTS, SAVES
                    SHUTOUTS, WIN%, COMPLETE GAMES, WHIP, BAA,
                    INNINGS PITCHED, OR K/BB RATIO (5 PER OCCASION)
                    2ND PLACE FINISH (4 PER OCCASION)
                    3RD PLACE FINISH (3 PER OCCASION)
                    4TH PLACE FINISH (2 PER OCCASION)
                    5TH PLACE FINISH (1 PER OCCASION)
                    6TH PLACE FINISH (0.5 PER OCCASION)
                    7TH PLACE FINISH (0.4 PER OCCASION)
                    8TH PLACE FINISH (0.3 PER OCCASION)
                    9TH PLACE FINISH (0.2 PER OCCASION)
                    10TH PLACE FINISH (0.1 PER OCCASION)
                    LEAGUE LEADER IN LOSSES, HITS ALLOWED, WALKS ALLOWED
                    EARNED RUNS ALLOWED, or HOME RUNS ALLOWED (-5)
                    2ND PLACE FINISH (-4)
                    3RD PLACE FINISH (-3)
                    4TH PLACE FINISH (-2)
                    5TH PLACE FINISH (-1)
                    6TH PLACE FINISH (-0.5)
                    7TH PLACE FINISH (-0.4)
                    8TH PLACE FINISH (-0.3)
                    9TH PLACE FINISH (-0.2)
                    10TH PLACE FINISH (-0.1)
                    225 INNINGS PITCHED IN A SEASON (3)
                    EVERY INNING THEREAFTER (.1)
                    300 STRIKEOUT SEASON (10)
                    EVERY STRIKEOUT THEREAFTER (.1)
                    200 STRIKEOUT SEASON (5)
                    EVERY STRIKEOUT THEREAFTER (.025)
                    100 STRIKEOUT SEASON (1)
                    EVERY STRIKEOUT THEREAFTER (.01)
                    SEASON ERA 2.50 OR LESS (MIN 175 INN) (10)
                    EACH .01 RUNS <2.50 (.1)
                    SEASON ERA 2.75 OR LESS (MIN 175 INN) (5)
                    EACH .01 RUNS <2.75 (.05)
                    SEASON ERA 3.00 OR LESS (MIN 175 INN) (3)
                    EACH .01 RUNS <3.00 (.025)
                    SEASON WHIP 1.100 OR LESS (MIN 175 INN) (3)
                    EACH .001 <1.100 (.05)
                    SEASON BAA .225 OR LESS (MIN 175 INN) (3)
                    EACH .001 <.225 (.1)
                    SEASON K/BB RATIO 3.00 OR GREATER (MIN 175 INN) (2)
                    EACH .01 > 3.00 (.01)
                    .600 WINNING % IN A SEASON (MIN 175 INN) (3)
                    EVERY .001% THEREAFTER (.025)
                    30 WIN SEASON (15)
                    EVERY WIN AFTER 30 (3)
                    29 WIN SEASON (12)
                    28 WIN SEASON (11)
                    27 WIN SEASON (10)
                    26 WIN SEASON (9)
                    25 WIN SEASON (8)
                    24 WIN SEASON (7)
                    23 WIN SEASON (6)
                    22 WIN SEASON (5)
                    21 WIN SEASON (4)
                    20 WIN SEASON (3)
                    19 WIN SEASON (2.5)
                    18 WIN SEASON (2)
                    17 WIN SEASON (1.5)
                    16 WIN SEASON (1)
                    15 WIN SEASON (.5)
                    10 LOSS SEASON (MIN. 175 INN) (.5)
                    9 LOSS SEASON (MIN. 175 INN) (1)
                    8 LOSS SEASON (MIN. 175 INN) (1.5)
                    7 LOSS SEASON (MIN. 175 INN) (2)
                    6 LOSS SEASON (MIN. 175 INN) (3)
                    5 LOSS SEASON (MIN. 175 INN) (5)
                    4 LOSS SEASON (MIN. 175 INN) (6)
                    3 LOSS SEASON (MIN. 175 INN) (7)
                    2 LOSS SEASON (MIN. 175 INN) (8)
                    SEASON ERA 50%>THAN LEAGUE AVG. (MIN 175 INN) (5)
                    EVERY 1% THEREAFTER (.5)
                    SEASON WHIP 25%>THAN LEAGUE AVG. (MIN 175 INN) (2)
                    EVERY 1% THEREAFTER (.5)
                    20 SAVE SEASON (3)
                    EVERY SAVE THEREAFTER (.5)
                    5 SHUTOUT SEASON (5)
                    EVERY SHUTOUT THEREAFTER (2)
                    75 WALK SEASON (MIN 175 INN) (2)
                    EVERY WALK <75 (.1)
                    30 COMPLETE GAME SEASON (1876-1925) (2)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.2)
                    25 COMPLETE GAME SEASON (1876-1925) (1)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.1)
                    20 COMPLETE GAME SEASON (1926-1950) (2)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.2)
                    20 COMPLETE GAME SEASON (1951-1975) (3)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.25)
                    15 COMPLETE GAME SEASON (1976-2000) (3)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.25)
                    5 COMPLETE GAME SEASON (2001-present) (3)
                    EACH COMPLETE GAME THEREAFTER (.5)
                    WIN 15% OF TEAM'S TOTAL WINS (CAREER) (MIN 1000 INN) (10)
                    EVERY .001% THEREAFTER (.01)
                    WIN 25% OF TEAM'S TOTAL WINS (SEASON) (5)
                    EVERY .001% THEREAFTER (.005)
                    WORLD SERIES APPEARANCE (1)
                    WORLD SERIES CHAMPION (2)
                    WORLD SERIES VICTORIES (3)
                    WORLD SERIES INNINGS PITCHED (0.1)
                    WORLD SERIES STRIKEOUTS (0.25)
                    WORLD SERIES SHUTOUTS (3)
                    WORLD SERIES ERA 3.00 OR LESS (MIN 25 INN) (5)
                    EACH .01 RUNS <3.00 (.1)
                    Last edited by cjedmonton; 02-11-2006, 05:09 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      No way is Mickey Lolich a HOFer. He had a few good years for the Tigers in the late 60s and early 70s, but outside of that was pretty much an average starting pitcher. He ended his career with an ERA barely above league average. He's Catfish Hunter without the peripheral characteristics that make Catfish's selection somewhat defensible.

                      His most similar player, Jim Bunning, is in the HOF. But, if you look at them closely it's hard to see why Lolich is better than Bunning:

                      -Bunning had four full seasons above 140 ERA+, six years above 130. Lolich's career high for a full year was 126.

                      -Bunning's ERA+ is ten points higher

                      -Bunning pitched about 100 more innings and has a better wining percentage.

                      -Bunning had a better strikeout/walk ratio.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        For some reason, I always think of Lolich and Jerry Koosman together. Not sure why. Anyway, I'd rather have Koosman.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          He's marginal. I don't think he'd get much serious consideration if it hadn't been for his fanatstic performance in the 68 WS. The Tigers would have been swept in 4 without Lolich. And to come back on 2 days rest in Game 7 and beat Gibson in St. Louis, well I still gotta give him credit for that.
                          It Might Be? It Could Be?? It Is!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by DoubleX
                            For some reason, I always think of Lolich and Jerry Koosman together. Not sure why. Anyway, I'd rather have Koosman.

                            You're not the first person I've heard commenting on Lolich/Koosman in the same breath! In my list, though, Lolich's final mark is substantially higher than Koosman's.

                            #24 Mickey Lolich 595.394
                            #25 Jim Kaat 586.184
                            #26 Vida Blue 570.198
                            #27 David Wells 567.363
                            #28 Billy Pierce 545.851
                            #29 Dutch Leonard 519.350
                            #30 Mike Cuellar 492.150
                            #31 Frank Tanana 483.448
                            #32 Dave McNally 475.480
                            #33 Slim Sallee 465.943
                            #34 Fernando Valenzuela 455.906
                            #35 Jack Pfiester 443.013
                            #36 Wilbur Wood 433.068
                            #37 Babe Ruth 432.528
                            #38 Sam McDowell 430.447
                            #39 Jerry Koosman 430.129

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              cjedmonton: can you give us some indication as to which markers in your system are most significant in accounting for Lolich's substantial lead over Koosman?
                              Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                              Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                              Comment

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