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Compiling a list of PED suspects

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  • #61
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

    0 - No possible chance (0%)
    1 - Very close to no chance (less than 5%)
    2 - Very unlikely, only remotely possible (5% to 9%)
    3 - unlikely, but could be somwhat possible (10% to 19%)
    4 - Probably not, but could be (20%-29%)
    5 - Good chance but less than 50/50 (30%-40%%)
    6 - 50/50 (around 50%)
    7 - Definitely Better than 50% that he used (60%-69%)
    8 - Most likely used (70%-85%)
    9 - Almost definitely used (86%-99%)
    10 - Definitely used (100%)
    I don't know if you can really give anybody a zero.
    .


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    • #62
      Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

      Because he played in the PED era and played with many known PED users. I don't think anyone from that era should be above suspicion. This is a witch hunt, after all!
      Yes, he's a 1, not a zero.
      .


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      • #63
        Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post

        Unusual career arcs are evidence. Are there ANY pitchers from earlier eras who declined in their 30s and then got better again in their 40s like Ryan did?
        I don't know if I would say that Ryan was ever really 'in decline'. His entire career is filled with a lot of pretty mediocre years with the occasional really good one. He had a 110 ERA+ in his 20s, and a 111 ERA+ in his 30s. In his 40s it was 116..so he was really the same pitcher all throughout his career.

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        • #64
          Originally posted by willshad View Post

          I don't know if I would say that Ryan was ever really 'in decline'. His entire career is filled with a lot of pretty mediocre years with the occasional really good one. He had a 110 ERA+ in his 20s, and a 111 ERA+ in his 30s. In his 40s it was 116..so he was really the same pitcher all throughout his career.
          A 111 ERA+ and 220 innings season is a well above average (mediocre) season - technically speaking.
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          • #65
            Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

            No only is it odd, but two famous pitchers (Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens) used PEDs while pitching for his team. I would list him as a 5.
            His crediting tom House with his late career resurgence should bump it up to an 8.

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            • #66
              Originally posted by Afterglow View Post
              Nolan Ryan is a guy who's career trajectory was really odd. He's a guy that had been on the decline for about 9 years, sans the strike year. Then he turns 40 and becomes dominant again.
              Rick Reuschel was essentially finished in the early 1980s. Then in the mid 80s he went to Pittsburgh and SF, became Big Daddy and had 4-5 very good to excellent seasons between @ ages 35-40.
              Context free we can reference Charlie Hough and the Niekro brothers as well.

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              • #67
                Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

                A 111 ERA+ and 220 innings season is a well above average (mediocre) season - technically speaking.
                Whether you think it is mediocre, or good, the point is that it doesn't look like Ryan was 'washed up' in his 30s, then suddenly became rejuvenated in his 40s. it looks to me like he remained at a steady level throughout his career, alternating 115 ERA+ type years with those under 100, and the occasional great year.

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by PVNICK View Post

                  Rick Reuschel was essentially finished in the early 1980s. Then in the mid 80s he went to Pittsburgh and SF, became Big Daddy and had 4-5 very good to excellent seasons between @ ages 35-40.
                  Context free we can reference Charlie Hough and the Niekro brothers as well.
                  Don't forget Bartolo Colon, but I'm guessing maybe he was using PEDs ?

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by willshad View Post

                    Whether you think it is mediocre, or good, the point is that it doesn't look like Ryan was 'washed up' in his 30s, then suddenly became rejuvenated in his 40s. it looks to me like he remained at a steady level throughout his career, alternating 115 ERA+ type years with those under 100, and the occasional great year.
                    I am not disputing that his career arc is not typical nor will I speculate as to why. If all somebody has is an atypical career arc as evidence of wrongdoing - I won't even bother wasting my time listening. I was making a side-point.

                    As to my side-point -it doesn't matter what I think about ERA+ and IP- it is not an opinion or something up for deabte.
                    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 01-12-2018, 12:31 PM.
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                    • #70
                      I bet if every MLB player past and present were exposed by God Himself on national TV everyone would be pooping their pants about how wrong they were about who was and who wasn't using. The looks on all the faces would be priceless.
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                      • #71
                        Originally posted by PVNICK View Post

                        Rick Reuschel was essentially finished in the early 1980s. Then in the mid 80s he went to Pittsburgh and SF, became Big Daddy and had 4-5 very good to excellent seasons between @ ages 35-40.
                        Context free we can reference Charlie Hough and the Niekro brothers as well.
                        3 of those guys were knuckleballers.

                        Ryan led the AL in strikeouts for 4 straight years, starting at 40. After failing to lead either league in it for the previous 8 seasons.

                        He had 301 strikeouts at the age of 42. He had not gotten to 300 in the previous 11 seasons.

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                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Afterglow View Post

                          3 of those guys were knuckleballers.

                          Ryan led the AL in strikeouts for 4 straight years, starting at 40. After failing to lead either league in it for the previous 8 seasons.

                          He had 301 strikeouts at the age of 42. He had not gotten to 300 in the previous 11 seasons.
                          Weren't Palmiero, Canseco, and IROD on those teams?? Juan Gone??
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                          • #73
                            Originally posted by JR Hart View Post

                            Weren't Palmiero, Canseco, and IROD on those teams?? Juan Gone??
                            Yes. Tho Nolan's improvement started during his last two years in Houston. But it's still strange to do that at 40.

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                            • #74
                              Nevermind - combining thoughts
                              Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 01-13-2018, 10:22 AM.
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                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Afterglow View Post

                                Yes. Tho Nolan's improvement started during his last two years in Houston. But it's still strange to do that at 40.
                                Right - his first huge "comeback" season was in Houston as he had a 142 ERA+ and 200+ innings at 40. Famous season where he led the league on ERA and went 8 and 16.

                                I wonder how many people are checking the 1987 Astros roster now to sniff out PED using accomplices and pushers? LOL

                                By the early 90's - probably every team had a few PED users. By the mid 90's every team likely had bunches of users. I don't see how the "he played with..." argument is ever a strong one.
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