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  • Future ballots

    Here's my take on what's to come.
    2020
    First time notables-Jeter, Abreu, Giambi
    My take-Jeter goes in immediately. None of the others are likely to get in any time soon, if ever. Good year for Clemens and Bonds to possibly get in.

    2021
    First time notables-none
    My take-Hudson and Buerhle have highest career WAR amongst first timers. Both are borderline at best. Another good year to clear ballot.

    2022
    Notable first timers-Ortiz, Rodriguez
    My take-Finally. Ortiz should be a slam dunk. ARod would be if there was no cloud over his head. All others borderline at best.
    K
    2023
    First time notables-Beltran
    My take
    -Beltran may get in right away due to lack of,competition
    27 World Championships
    22 retired numbers
    Isn't it great to be a Yankee fan?
    Baseball was, is, and always will be to me the best sport-Babe Ruth

  • #2
    In 2024 you definitely have Beltre and Mauer and probably have Suzuki to be counted among the first time notables.

    We also already know that we will see Sabathia on the 2025 ballot. He has definitively announced his retirement at the end of this season and he will get a lot of attention.

    Between 2020 and 2024, the slam dunks are Jeter in 2020 and probably Beltre and Suzuki in 2024. Ortiz will eventually get in, but he has two issues: 1. He is a DH and bigger 2. He has a PEDs accusation that was substantiated.

    Rodriguez will get enough votes to stay on the ballot and hopefully eventually gets elected. How Clemens and Bonds are treated will determine his fate.

    Beltran I think eventually gets in, but it will take him 3 years. Abreu and Giambi will get a few votes, but won't get past 5%.

    Mauer will be an interesting case in 2024. Does the BBWAA view him as a catcher or first baseman? Does his all time dominant peak for a catcher carry him in, or does his late career struggles deter him? Time will tell.

    Comment


    • #3
      I didn't do 2024. But I agree with your assessment.
      I think Suzuki should be a slam dunk. If He had just been a star in Japan and only so so here like so many of his countrymen have been, I wouldn't even consider him. But he immediately became a star here and had a HOF career not counting Japan.
      27 World Championships
      22 retired numbers
      Isn't it great to be a Yankee fan?
      Baseball was, is, and always will be to me the best sport-Babe Ruth

      Comment


      • #4
        Since the 2019 election is now in progress, I will reserve any predictions for 2020 and beyond until I can review this year's results. That said, here is some information to assist others with theirs:

        2019
        First Ballot - Lance Berkman, Roy Halladay, Todd Helton, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Miguel Tejada
        Final Ballot - Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff

        2020
        First Ballot - Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Derek Jeter, Cliff Lee
        Final Ballot - Larry Walker

        2021
        First Ballot - Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Torii Hunter
        Final Ballot -none

        2022
        First Ballot - Joe Nathan, David Ortiz, Jonathan Papelbon, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira
        Final Ballot - Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa

        2023
        First Ballot - Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez
        Final Ballot - Mike Mussina, Jeff Kent

        2024
        First Ballot - Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Ichiro Suzuki, Chase Utley, David Wright
        Final Ballot - Gary Sheffield

        2025
        First Ballot - CC Sabathia
        Final Ballot - Billy Wagner

        "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
        "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
        "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
        "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

        Comment


        • #5
          Incidentally, jjpm74's post was spot-on throughout. Good job!
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

          Comment

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