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My Hall of Fame Ballot Over the Next Six Years

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  • My Hall of Fame Ballot Over the Next Six Years

    If I was an eligible BBWAA voter, here's how I would vote over the next six years. Feel free to take a stab at it.

    2020:

    1. Curt Schilling
    2. Larry Walker (elected/last year of eligibility)
    3. Scott Rolen
    4. Bobby Abreu
    5. Todd Helton
    6. Andruw Jones
    7. Jeff Kent
    8. Omar Vizquel
    9. Billy Wagner
    10. Cliff Lee (falls off ballot with better peak than many Hall of Fame pitchers)

    2021:

    1. Curt Schilling (elected)
    2. Scott Rolen
    3. Bobby Abreu
    4. Todd Helton
    5. Andruw Jones
    6. Jeff Kent
    7. Tim Hudson (banking on 10 years)
    8. Mark Buehrle (banking on 10 years)
    9. Omar Vizquel
    10. Billy Wagner

    2022:

    1. David Ortiz (elected)
    2. Scott Rolen
    3. Barry Bonds (last ditch effort)
    4. Roger Clemens (last ditch effort)
    5. Andruw Jones
    6. Jeff Kent
    7. Tim Hudson
    8. Mark Buehrle
    9. Bobby Abreu
    10. Billy Wagner

    2023:

    1. Carlos Beltran (elected)
    2. Jeff Kent (moves on to Veterans Committee)
    3. Bobby Abreu
    4. Andruw Jones
    5. Tim Hudson
    6. Scott Rolen
    7. Mark Buehrle
    8. Omar Vizquel
    9. Billy Wagner
    10. Mark Teixeira (hoping he makes 5% in 2022)

    2024:

    1. Adrian Beltre (elected)
    2. Joe Mauer (elected)
    3. Chase Utley
    4. Bobby Abreu
    5. Scott Rolen
    6. Tim Hudson
    7. Mark Buehrle
    8. Omar Vizquel (elected)
    9. Billy Wagner
    10. David Wright

    2025:

    1. Ichiro Suzuki (elected/if anyone only votes for Ichiro like Jeter they should have their voting privileges revoked)
    2. CC Sabathia (elected)
    3. Chase Utley (elected in 2026-27)
    4. Bobby Abreu
    5. Scott Rolen (elected in final year 2027)
    6. Tim Hudson
    7. Mark Buehrle
    8. Billy Wagner (elected in final year)
    9. David Wright
    10. Brian McCann (may miss 5%)

    While thinking about who I would vote for, there are several players who I think will be hurt from the 10 vote limit and the 5% requirement. To me it's a shame and I think some of these guys might make it for a year or two. I doubt they stick around because I see the possibility of a logjam and sadly a lack of an appreciation for peak value. They are the following: Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann, Torii Hunter, Joe Nathan, Matt Holliday, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Francisco Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Cliff Lee Jonathan Papelbon, and Adrian Gonzalez.

  • #2
    The numbers - what does the order each year represent?

    Not to be the proverbial wet blanket, but I believe your optimism about the 5% guys is unwarranted in most cases.

    And I don't want to open a can of worms, but my biggest "complaint" about these ballots would be the absence of Bonds, Clemens and A-Rod. But, to each his own.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
      The numbers - what does the order each year represent?

      Not to be the proverbial wet blanket, but I believe your optimism about the 5% guys is unwarranted in most cases.

      And I don't want to open a can of worms, but my biggest "complaint" about these ballots would be the absence of Bonds, Clemens and A-Rod. But, to each his own.
      The numbers each year don't mean anything. So are you saying you don't view the guys affected by the 5% rule as Hall of Famers or that they will make 5%? To me voting for Bonds and Clemens seems like a waste unless maybe with a "building momentum" argument.

      Comment


      • #4
        Thanks. That explains a lot.

        1. There are a number of the "maybe he'll get 5%, maybe he won't" candidates who (I think) are deserving of election to the Hall of Fame. Few of them, however, have a strong probability of actually reaching the 5% mark. My own hypothetical 2020 ballot would feature Bobby Abreu, who meets the above description. I don't dispute putting them on your ballot, I just find the idea that Tim Hudson or Mark Buehrle reaching 10 BBWAA ballots laughable. Brian McCann reaching 5? No way. That's not a verdict on their merit, it's a verdict on the electorate.

        2. Bonds and Clemens could be elected by the BBWAA in 2021 or 2022 if there was a concerted effort on their behalf. Guys who had them and dropped them, guys who had one but not the other, guys who were on the fence, guys who are swayed by majority opinion (now in their favor), guys who resent Joe Morgan's manipulation, guys who haven't been voting (despite being eligible) because they're sick of the argument/bottleneck, etc. There are votes out there to be had among reasonable, middle-of-the-road types or people who support Bonds/Clemens but aren't casting their vote for them (or at all) for one reason or another. Bottom line, 2020-2022 is precisely the time for an all-out campaign to get them elected.

        In general, I love and share your sentiments, in some cases, I just don't share your optimism about what the electorate will do. I trust you to do a good job more than I trust the BBWAA.
        "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
        "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
        "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
        "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

        Comment


        • #5
          Here are my predictions for the next 6 years:

          2020 – Derek Jeter
          2021 – Curt Schilling
          2022 – David Ortiz
          2023 – Carlos Beltran
          2024 – Adrian Beltre
          2025 – Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia

          I should note that 2022-2025 are extremely optimistic, IMO. If I had to bet on it, I'd bet against Ortiz, Beltran and Sabathia being first-year inductees. Each may come close, each may be elected within 2-4 years, but I'd give their first-ballot election less than a 50/50 chance.

          FYI, the BBWAA Timeline
          2020 - adding Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Cliff Lee; final election for Larry Walker
          2021 - adding Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson
          2022 - adding Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira; final election for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa
          2023 - adding Carlos Beltran; final ballot for Jeff Kent
          2024 - adding Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright; final ballot for Gary Sheffield
          2025 - adding Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia; final ballot for Billy Wagner
          2026 - adding ???; final ballot for Manny Ramirez
          2027 - adding ???; final ballot for Omar Vizquel, Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones
          2028 - adding ???, final ballot for Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte
          2029 - adding ???; final ballot for Bobby Abreu

          If you're going by their contract status, then Albert Pujols will debut in 2027 with Miggy, Votto and Cano debuting in 2029.

          I don't see too many assured 1st-ballot inductions in the decade ahead.
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
            Here are my predictions for the next 6 years:

            2020 – Derek Jeter
            2021 – Curt Schilling
            2022 – David Ortiz
            2023 – Carlos Beltran
            2024 – Adrian Beltre
            2025 – Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia

            I should note that 2022-2025 are extremely optimistic, IMO. If I had to bet on it, I'd bet against Ortiz, Beltran and Sabathia being first-year inductees. Each may come close, each may be elected within 2-4 years, but I'd give their first-ballot election less than a 50/50 chance.

            FYI, the BBWAA Timeline
            2020 - adding Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Cliff Lee; final election for Larry Walker
            2021 - adding Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson
            2022 - adding Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira; final election for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa
            2023 - adding Carlos Beltran; final ballot for Jeff Kent
            2024 - adding Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, David Wright; final ballot for Gary Sheffield
            2025 - adding Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia; final ballot for Billy Wagner
            2026 - adding ???; final ballot for Manny Ramirez
            2027 - adding ???; final ballot for Omar Vizquel, Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones
            2028 - adding ???, final ballot for Todd Helton, Andy Pettitte
            2029 - adding ???; final ballot for Bobby Abreu

            If you're going by their contract status, then Albert Pujols will debut in 2027 with Miggy, Votto and Cano debuting in 2029.

            I don't see too many assured 1st-ballot inductions in the decade ahead.
            The one thing I think both of you are overlooking are the new voters and the old voters getting purged. Over the next decade, we could see a turnover of 35%-50% and most of the new voters seem to be big hall guys.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
              The one thing I think both of you are overlooking are the new voters and the old voters getting purged. Over the next decade, we could see a turnover of 35%-50% and most of the new voters seem to be big hall guys.
              Maybe you haven't seen my posts about that in other threads around here, but that isn't something I'm just aware of, I track it. It is the single greatest positive change to the BBWAA in decades. The problem is that (a) the dichotomy between old guard and new blood isn't happening quickly enough to help certain candidates and (b) even a majority new-blood BBWAA doesn't guarantee certain results.

              Perhaps I'm slightly more pessimistic about the 1st-ballot election of Ortiz, Beltran and CC (as I stated above), but as we've no evidence by which to gauge support before a player debuts on the ballot, it's more of a guess. If, for example, we want to assume that Sabathia will be a shoo-in (75%+) among newer voters, then wouldn't it be reasonable to expect to see those voters supporting Andy Pettitte more than they are? Yet Pettitte has been receiving more support from private voters, of whom the old guard makes up the greater portion.

              Even without this "culture war" within the BBWAA, players traditionally take a few years to get in - ask Eddie Mathews or Phil Niekro or Gary Carter. Yes, in another generation or two, I'd expect those instances to be drastically reduced, but it's still the nature of the system in place. There's a sort of pecking order and anyone perceived as less worthy than a Mariano Rivera or a Derek Jeter may still have to "take their turn".

              I'm not disagreeing with you about the positive trends, I'm just unwilling to take long-term projections and place them on the electorate in the next six years. The Brave New World that JR fears, where a majority of the electorate is doing comparative analysis on the candidates and analytics are ubiquitous among the electorate is closer, but we're not there yet. The turnover you mention is not going fast enough to replace half the electorate within 10 years.

              This thread is talking only about the next 6 elections (including the current one). We may well reach a place where Chase Utley gets elected on the 10th ballot or where Joey Votto is a first-ballot inductee, but those things will happen in the 2030's, not in the early 20's. And let us suppose that your 35% estimate is correct over the next 10 years. When Votto debuts in 2029, what's he likely to get? He would need 90% among the new kids and majority support from the old guard, to go in that year. (We'll have more accurate assessments as time passes, of course and the easiest way to gauge voter sentiment for these, or other, purposes is to reveal all ballots publicly after the election.)

              What you say is good news for active players more than it is for players already on the ballot. Maybe Scott Rolen builds support over a decade - that's certainly possible. And I'm not saying that the BBWAA fails to elect Beltran or Sabathia (certainly not), I'm merely skeptical that the improvements in the collective voter's baseball I.Q. aren't coming fast enough to warrant the hope of more 2-3 player classes over the next half-decade or so.

              I hope you're right. I would love to see the results of half the electorate's membership changing in just 10 years. We would see much better results across-the-board in Hall of Fame elections.
              "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
              "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
              "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
              "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

              Comment


              • #8
                A full generational cycle has traditionally been considered to be 20 years, but with longer lifespans, better health, and extended work careers, it's probably closer to 30 years at this point.

                Comment


                • #9
                  A BBWAA voter who has been voting for 30 years (1991-2020), would have begun covering baseball as a daily reporter at least as early as 1981 and ceased no earlier than 2010, based on eligibility rules for Hall of Fame voting. Now, teenage prodigies and lucky schmucks without a college degree aside, it's fair for us to assume that 30+ year voters are at least 62 years old.

                  IMO the worst of the electorate is largely found here - among those who are retirement age (or much later). They covered 1970's and 1980's baseball, and passed on so many good candidates from that era when they had the chance to vote on them in the 1990's and 2000's. This is the generation that said "no" to Dale Murphy, Thurman Munson, Luis Tiant, Steve Garvey, Dave Parker, etc. This is the generation that gave short shrift to Ted Simmons, Dwight Evans, Lou Whitaker. This is also the generation that inexplicably - by contrast - elected Jim Rice and Bruce Sutter.

                  These guys put up shutouts in the 1996 and 2013 elections. They took 5 years to elect 300-game winners Phil Niekro and Don Sutton. Six years to elect Gary Carter. Three to elect Ryne Sandberg and Barry Larkin. Roberto Alomar didn't get in his first year. Nine years to elected Andre Dawson (400 HR, nearly 1,600 RBI). They did their best to keep Bert Blyleven and Goose Gossage out of Cooperstown while promoting Jack Morris and electing Bruce Sutter. Tim Raines took 10 ballots. Jeff Bagwell took 7. Mike Piazza took 4. Edgar Martinez took 10.

                  These voters are the "worst". Many may well have been good reporters, but as Hall of Fame voters, they suck.

                  What's the point of mentioning this? Your point about generational cycles being more than just 15 years. You're right! The average life expectancy in this country is about 80 for a male in the United States, which means these guys should be exiting the scene sooner, not later. The truncation of the electorate with the cap on guys who leave their job will mean that those who've been retired for more than a decade are also out. That's already yielded promising results, but isn't changing the face of the electorate quickly enough to matter for most in the most imminent of elections.

                  Furthermore, I would argue that there is an in-between generation between these old guards and those who were young fans in a world where analytics was ubiquitous. Voters who began covering games in the 1990's - and voting in the 2000's - are, in the majority, closer to the older generation's sentiments than those just now earning the vote. These people also wrote stories during the so-called "Steroid Era" about those awful players and their awful failed tests. They were influenced, as new voters, by the collective wisdom of their elders. Sure, they were friendlier to the players they saw - Bagwell, Larkin, Biggio, Mussina - and they might use OPS+ or ERA+ here or there, but they aren't all that savvy with (or friendly to) advanced stats. Only by comparison to the Murray Chass/Bill Madden generation do they look progressive.

                  Reporters, like attorneys, are loathe to publicly criticize their brethren. There is a very real "circle the wagons" phenomena among some professions, the press being just one example. Part of it may be a reluctance to bite the proverbial hand (as Dan Le Batard did). No one wants to be a pariah in the workplace, either.

                  This transition, this passing of the baton from the disapproving and vocal Elders to the (largely) silent revolutionaries is interesting to watch as it happens. Some days it just feels like its occurring at a glacial pace.

                  "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                  "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                  "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                  "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                  Comment

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