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Upcoming BBWAA Noobs (Jan. 2020 Edition)

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  • Upcoming BBWAA Noobs (Jan. 2020 Edition)

    Apparently, Ian Kinsler retired.

    We are now at:

    2021 - Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Torii Hunter, Aramis Ramirez
    2022 - Joe Nathan, David Ortiz, Jonathan Papelbon, Alex Rodriguez, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Teixeira
    2023 - Carlos Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez
    2024 - Adrian Beltre, Jose Bautista, Bartolo Colon, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes, Chase Utley, David Wright
    2025 - Ian Kinsler, Brian McCann, CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Troy Tulowitzki
    2026 - ?
    2027 - Likely Albert Pujols
    2028 - ?
    2029 - Likely Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano and Joey Votto

    Anyone listed after 2025 is a projection, based on a combination of age, performance and existing contract length. As of now, it's highly unlikely that any of those post-2025 candidates listed above will receive further contract offers in the future.

    Which active players ought to retire? Which are likely to be freshmen candidates in 2026, 2027 and 2028? When will the following, whose contracts are coming up in the next several seasons, play their last game?

    Final Yr / Player / Seasonal Age in 1st Year After Current Contract Expires
    2019 - Curtis Granderson (39)
    2019 - Ben Zorbrist (39)
    2019 - Russell Martin (37)
    2019 - Felix Hernandez (34)
    2020 - Adam Wainwright (39)
    2020 – Cole Hamels (37)
    2020 - Yadier Molina (37)
    2020 – Ryan Braun (37) – assumes that the Brewers buyout his option year
    2020 – Jon Lester (37) – assumes that the Cubs buyout his option year
    2021 - Albert Pujols (42)
    2021 - Justin Verlander (39)
    2021 - Zach Greinke (38)
    2021 - Dustin Pedroia (38)
    2021 - Max Scherzer (37)
    2021 – Andrew McCutchen (35) – assumes that the Phillies buyout his option year
    2021 – Buster Posey (35) – assumes that the Giants buyout his option year
    2021 – Clayton Kershaw (34)
    2022 – Evan Longoria (37) – assumes that the Giants buyout his option year
    2023 - Robinson Cano (41)
    2023 – Miguel Cabrera (41) – assumes that Cabrera’s option year does not vest

    What are your thoughts?
    Last edited by Chadwick; 01-12-2020, 11:59 AM.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

  • #2
    Any Pedroia injury should be a de facto retirement for him, and this should be his last season, period. That being said, he could platoon/DH out the rest of the year to get his counting stats up, and possibly bump his BA back over .300 (he's at .2993 at the moment). Some possible milestones: 2,000 hits (1805–a real stretch), 1k runs (922), 400 doubles (394), 150 HRs (140) and SBs (138), 700 walks (624), and 2700 TB (2649); and I'm just picking nice round numbers. I am not optimistic that this will happen, but it could conceivably.

    Comment


    • #3
      The doubles appear to be the only reachable goal for him unless he has a (relatively) healthy season again. From everything I've read, he's (physically) done.
      "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
      "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
      "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
      "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

      Comment


      • #4
        None are HOF worthy, but Matt Holliday, Jose Bautista, and the late charging Nelson Cruz fit in with your lowest level names mentioned.
        Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
        http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

        Comment


        • #5
          My 2 Cents (in bold)

          Originally posted by Chadwick View Post

          What about the following, whose contracts are coming up in the next several seasons?

          Final Yr – Player (Age in 1st season after final contract year)
          2020 – Cole Hamels (37) might pitch beyond next season. It depends on whether or not he is willing to take a pay cut.
          2020 – Ryan Braun (37) – assumes Brewers buyout his option year At this point, he is a below average outfielder. This is probably his final season.
          2020 – Jon Lester (37) – assumes Cubs buyout his option year Probably pitches through 2021
          2021 – Andrew McCutchen (35) – assumes Phillies buyout his option year He will get bought out, but will latch on with another club (Think Granderson)
          2021 – Buster Posey (35) – assumes Giants buyout his option year Probably sticks around 2-3 additional seasons
          2021 – Clayton Kershaw (34) Hard to say. He will pitch as long as he wants to. I can see him still in MLB in 2030 just as easily as see him hang it up after this season.
          2021 – Max Scherzer (37) He only retires if he wants to. Probably plays 3 more seasons.
          2021 – Dustin Pedroia (38) Everything hangs on whether or not he can be a factor this season. If not, his career is over.
          2021 – Zack Greinke (38) Pitches at least another year beyond 2021
          2021 – Justin Verlander (39) Wants to get to 300 wins and will get the chance to do so as long as he is somewhat effective.
          2021 – Albert Pujols (42) Definitely done by 2021.
          2022 – Evan Longoria (37) – assumes the Giants buyout his option year He could end up with another team in a diminished role, but it is unlikely.
          2023 – Miguel Cabrera (41) – assumes Cabrera’s option year does not vest He might be done/bought out this season at the rate he is going.
          2023 – Robinson Cano (41) Ugh, I hope new ownership steps in and buys him out before 2023. He probably has one or two more semi productive seasons in him.

          What are your thoughts?

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by pedrosrotatorcuff View Post
            Any Pedroia injury should be a de facto retirement for him, and this should be his last season, period. That being said, he could platoon/DH out the rest of the year to get his counting stats up, and possibly bump his BA back over .300 (he's at .2993 at the moment). Some possible milestones: 2,000 hits (1805–a real stretch), 1k runs (922), 400 doubles (394), 150 HRs (140) and SBs (138), 700 walks (624), and 2700 TB (2649); and I'm just picking nice round numbers. I am not optimistic that this will happen, but it could conceivably.
            Could Pedroia get the knee healthy enough to play first base? Just a thought.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Cougar View Post

              Could Pedroia get the knee healthy enough to play first base? Just a thought.
              Maybe he could, but who wants a 37 year old first baseman with bad knees and limited power numbers as their everyday first baseman? Definitely not the Red Sox who are trying to get back to the World Series. First base is the easiest position to fill on a team.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

                Maybe he could, but who wants a 37 year old first baseman with bad knees and limited power numbers as their everyday first baseman? Definitely not the Red Sox who are trying to get back to the World Series. First base is the easiest position to fill on a team.
                Exactly. His knees are worse than Miggy's; and forget starting–the team is concerned mainly with him taking up a roster spot, period. Bloom will have quite a challenge if he wants/needs to move Pedey's $12mil in 2021 in the name of avoiding luxury tax penalty.

                But, on topic. Scherzer will play beyond next year (2021)–he has shown no signs of decline. Maybe it's just for 2022, but he has at least one average season left in him once the eliteness tapers off.

                One name you didn't list, but whom I predict won't stick around beyond his current contract, is David Price. He becomes a FA after 2022, at age 37. If this past year is anything to go by (and I'm willing to cut him a little slack seeing as our entire pitching corps was a train wreck in the first month or so of 2019), he has 2 mediocre-at-best years left, with that last $96 million being a very expensive albatross for the Sox–and/or someone else. That would make him eligible for 2028.
                Last edited by pedrosrotatorcuff; 01-09-2020, 02:21 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

                  Maybe he could, but who wants a 37 year old first baseman with bad knees and limited power numbers as their everyday first baseman? Definitely not the Red Sox who are trying to get back to the World Series. First base is the easiest position to fill on a team.
                  If he can still hit around .300 with lots of doubles and a decent number of walks, which was pretty much his norm, that's perfectly fine production from the first base position. Guys who can hit 30 HR & be good at all the other facets of the game don't grow on trees anymore.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Cougar View Post

                    If he can still hit around .300 with lots of doubles and a decent number of walks, which was pretty much his norm, that's perfectly fine production from the first base position. Guys who can hit 30 HR & be good at all the other facets of the game don't grow on trees anymore.
                    That's a massive if though. He's played nine games, total, in the past two years, after multiple surgeries. They were effectively two false starts. And even if he lasts, that doesn't guarantee good production.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Cougar View Post

                      If he can still hit around .300 with lots of doubles and a decent number of walks, which was pretty much his norm, that's perfectly fine production from the first base position. Guys who can hit 30 HR & be good at all the other facets of the game don't grow on trees anymore.
                      Did they ever? I remember, growing up, those guys were pretty special.
                      "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                      "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                      "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                      "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by pedrosrotatorcuff View Post


                        That's a massive if though.
                        He's played nine games, total, in the past two years, after multiple surgeries. They were effectively two false starts. And even if he lasts, that doesn't guarantee good production.
                        Oh, that's absolutely & obviously the case.

                        It's merely possible that with less stress on the joint from fielding and judicious baserunning, Pedey might be able to be his old self in the batter's box.

                        Or not; some knee injuries destabilize the batter's stance, stride, or power enough to make one ineffective there too.

                        I don't want to make too much of this. As I said initially, it was just a thought.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
                          Did they ever? I remember, growing up, those guys were pretty special.
                          They came pretty cheap in the years roughly between 1993 and 2004.

                          Why? I haven't the faintest idea...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Thanks, Jar of Flies. I have added both Bautista and Holliday to the Pending list in the OP.
                            "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                            "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                            "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                            "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Just to comment on a couple guys. I'm hoping Cole Hamels sticks around to get 3,000 strikeouts. But with age he probably needs four years which is unlikely. It would give him a better shot at the Hall of Fame. That being said by the time he's eligible, new voters will be more appreciative of his 60-70 WAR.

                              Lester has to keep playing or he's got no shot at the Hall. He has 45.5 WAR no Cy Youngs and needs at least five years for 3,000 strikeouts which is not going to happen. I could see him sticking around for 2021 but I would be surprised beyond that.

                              Evan Longoria will reach 300 homers and maybe 400 doubles this year. He probably needs three years for 2,000 hits, two years for 1,000 runs, and with luck will provide positive value reaching 60 WAR. I doubt he plays beyond 2021. I think like above Hamels he will get some support from new voters; especially with no Rays in Cooperstown.

                              I'm thinking Pedroia plays out his contract and retires in 2021; if he stays healthy. He at least will stick around on the BBWAA Ballot but it will be interesting to see how new voters react.

                              Also I think Ben Zobrist plays one more season on a one year deal. I would love it but he's got no shot at Cooperstown.

                              Comment

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