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Most Support in a BBWAA Election, Not (Yet) Elected

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  • Most Support in a BBWAA Election, Not (Yet) Elected

    325 unique individuals have received at least 5% support in a BBWAA election. 211 (65 percent) have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

    279 unique individuals have received at least 10% support in a BBWAA election. 209 (75 percent) have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

    230 unique individuals have received at least 20% support in a BBWAA election. 191 (83 percent) have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

    196 unique individuals have received at least 30% support in a BBWAA election. 175 (89 percent) have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

    172 unique individuals have received at least 40% support in a BBWAA election. 162 (94 percent) have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

    154 unique individuals have received at least 50% support in a BBWAA election. 149 (97 percent) have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

    145 unique individuals have received at least 60% support in a BBWAA election. 141 (97 percent) have been elected to the Hall of Fame.

    137 unique individuals have received at least 70% support in a BBWAA election. 136 (99 percent) have been elected to the Hall of Fame.


    Most BBWAA Support in a Single Election, Not (Yet) Elected

    70.0% Curt Schilling (2020)
    63.4% Gil Hodges (1983)
    61.0% Roger Clemens (2020)
    60.7% Barry Bonds (2020)
    52.6% Omar Vizquel (2020)
    47.3% Tony Oliva (1988)
    43.1% Roger Maris (1988)
    42.6% Steve Garvey (1995)
    40.6% Maury Wills (1981)
    40.0% Marty Marion (1970)
    39.8% Fred McGriff (2019)
    39.3% Harvey Kuenn (1988)
    35.9% Hank Gowdy (1955)
    35.6% Phil Cavarretta (1975)
    35.3% Scott Rolen (2020)
    34.0% Johnny Sain (1975)
    33.6% Allie Reynolds (1968)
    31.7% Billy Wagner (2020)
    31.7% Tommy John (2009)
    30.9% Luis Tiant (1988)
    30.5% Gary Sheffield (2020)
    29.8% Johnny Vander Meer (1967)
    29.6% Jim Kaat (1993)
    29.2% Todd Helton (2020)
    28.2% Don Mattingly (2001)
    28.2% Manny Ramirez (2020)
    27.5% Jeff Kent (2020)
    25.5% Ken Boyer (1988)
    25.5% Mickey Lolich (1988)
    25.4% Mel Harder (1964)
    24.9% Mickey Vernon (1980)
    24.5% Dave Parker (1998)
    24.1% Lew Burdette (1984)
    23.7% Bucky Walters (1968)
    23.7% Mark McGwire (2010)
    23.2% Dale Murphy (2000)
    21.1% Minnie Minoso (1988)
    20.7% Elston Howard (1981)
    20.7% Tommy Henrich (1970)
    19.4% Andruw Jones (2020)
    18.9% Dick Allen (1996)
    18.9% Roy Face (1987)
    18.5% Al Dark (1979)
    18.0% Smoky Joe Wood (1947)
    17.3% Pepper Martin (1958)
    16.9% Dave Concepcion (1998)
    16.7% Lefty O’Doul (1960)
    15.7% Vada Pinson (1988)
    15.5% Thurman Munson (1981)
    15.3% Don Newcombe (1980)
    15.1% Curt Flood (1996)
    14.4% Ted Kluszeski (1977)
    14.4% Walker Cooper (1976)
    13.9% Sammy Sosa (2020)
    13.7% Babe Adams (1947)
    13.5% Duffy Lewis (1955)
    13.1% Sparky Lyle (1988)
    12.6% Rafael Palmeiro (2012)
    12.3% Don Larsen (1979)
    11.7% Terry Moore (1968)
    11.3% Andy Pettitte (2020)
    11.3% Dom DiMaggio (1973)
    11.2% Orel Hershiser (2006)
    10.8% Keith Hernandez (1998)
    10.6% Bobby Bonds (1993)
    10.4% Dwight Evans (1998)
    10.2% Vic Raschi (1975)
    10.0% Dickey Kerr (1955)
    10.0% Jimmy Dykes (1960)
    10.0% Johnny Kling (1937)
    9.8% Charlie Grimm (1958)
    9.6% Bernie Williams (2012)
    9.4% Bobo Newsom (1969)
    9.0% Hal Chase (1937)
    8.8% Jimmie Wilson (1956)
    8.8% Ron Guidry (2000)
    8.7% Vida Blue (1993)
    8.3% Graig Nettles (1994)
    8.3% Muddy Ruel (1956)
    8.0% Lou Criger (1937)
    7.9% Hank Bauer (1967)
    7.9% Rusty Staub (1994)
    7.7% Albert Belle (2006)
    7.7% Bob Boone (1996)
    7.5% Nick Altrock (1958)
    7.5% Tommy Bridges (1964)
    7.4% Dave Stewart (2001)
    7.0% Wilbur Wood (1988)
    6.9% George Foster (1993)
    6.7% Glenn Wright (1960)
    6.5% Lon Warneke (1964)
    6.5% Sal Maglie (1964)
    6.4% Nap Rucker (1942)
    6.2% Fernando Valenzuela (2003)
    6.2% Paul Derringer (1956)
    6.1% Charlie Keller (1972)
    6.0% Doc Cramer (1964)
    6.0% Freddie Fitzsimmons (1958)
    5.7% Babe Herman (1956)
    5.7% Cy Williams (1956)
    5.6% Dolf Luque (1958)
    5.6% Joe Judge (1960)
    5.5% Bobby Abreu (2020)
    5.5% Fred Lynn (1996)
    5.5% Nomar Garciaparra (2015)
    5.3% Frankie Crosetti (1968)
    5.2% Juan Gonzalez (2011)
    5.2% Stuffy McInnis (1949)
    5.0% Bob Meusel (1948)
    5.0% Fred Hutchinson (1964)
    5.0% Hal Schumacher (1964)
    5.0% Rudy York (1964)
    5.0% Schoolboy Rowe (1969)
    5.0% Willie McGee (2005)


    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

  • #2
    Originally posted by Chadwick View Post


    5.0% Hal Schumacher (1964)

    Huh, Hal Schumacher was the only name I was unfamiliar with. He sure was "consistent" - a 13-game winner 4 years straight, with two 12-win seasons to follow

    Comment


    • #3
      This list is constantly changing, of course. These percentages will only go up over time as unelected players can always be elected in the future, but elected players cannot be unelected.

      Here's were my takeaways:

      1. Two-thirds of all players who aren't one-and-done will eventually be elected to Cooperstown.
      2. The same is true of three-quarters of those with 10%+ support.
      3. The same is true of 9 of out every 10 candidates with 30%+ support.
      4. 19 of 20 guys with 40%+ support will eventually be elected.
      5. There is virtually no difference in your odds between 50% and 74.9%; you have (roughly) equal chances of being elected some day.


      Understanding that the Hall of Fame has elected 19 of every 20 candidates who received majority support from the writers, might the Hall consider lowering the threshold from 75% to something closer to 50%? They used a far small supermajority to justify reducing candidate tenure from 15 to 10 ballots, after all.
      Last edited by Chadwick; 03-20-2020, 07:11 PM.
      "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
      "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
      "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
      "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

      Comment


      • #4
        The only thing I'd like to say is the "At least x % " litany is a little deceiving in that it groups the guys who topped out at a low level with those who got more. I find the listing by maximum percentage received more instructive. If we went to 60%, all of them except for Hodges and Schilling are stymied by steroid issues, and Schilling's max level may ye t rise. The argument againts the roiders with 60+% is really that single issue. I support Schilling, and could live with Hodges. Of those that have certainly maxed out below 60%, I don't see many I'd support.
        Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
        Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
        A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by jalbright View Post
          The only thing I'd like to say is the "At least x % " litany is a little deceiving in that it groups the guys who topped out at a low level with those who got more. I find the listing by maximum percentage received more instructive. If we went to 60%, all of them except for Hodges and Schilling are stymied by steroid issues, and Schilling's max level may ye t rise. The argument againts the roiders with 60+% is really that single issue. I support Schilling, and could live with Hodges. Of those that have certainly maxed out below 60%, I don't see many I'd support.
          Agreed, in fact, of the 17 guys with 30% or better max support, I'd only support the following:

          Easy yes - Bonds, Clemens, Rolen, Schilling
          Okay, fine - Hodges, McGriff, Oliva

          The other 10 are firm "no" votes for me.

          When you're supposed to draw three-quarters support for election and you're not getting three in 10 voters to suggest that you're a HOFer, it's a tough sell. There's little difference (IMO) between those who max out at 10 percent and those who max out at, say, 25 percent. None really gained any traction.

          Also, I'm fairly confident that Schilling and Rolen will be elected by the BBWAA in the future so they won't remain on this list for long.
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

          Comment


          • #6
            Thanks for posting...a lot to digest with the way you have presented this information.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
              This list is constantly changing, of course. These percentages will only go up over time as unelected players can always be elected in the future, but elected players cannot be unelected.

              Here's were my takeaways:

              1. Two-thirds of all players who aren't one-and-done will eventually be elected to Cooperstown.
              2. The same is true of three-quarters of those with 10%+ support.
              3. The same is true of 9 of out every 10 candidates with 30%+ support.
              4. 19 of 20 guys with 40%+ support will eventually be elected.
              5. There is virtually no difference in your odds between 50% and 74.9%; you have (roughly) equal chances of being elected some day.


              Understanding that the Hall of Fame has elected 19 of every 20 candidates who received majority support from the writers, might the Hall consider lowering the threshold from 75% to something closer to 50%? They used a far small supermajority to justify reducing candidate tenure from 15 to 10 ballots, after all.
              It would make sense but they'll never do it until all PED tainted guys are off the ballot and that's a long ways away.

              Comment


              • #8
                They'll never do it, period.

                The 75% threshold is the only consistent rule from the very beginning. Ironic that Frick didn't think it through when he imposed that. It's a terrible system.
                "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                Comment

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