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Yes/ No/ Maybe Hall of Fame Project, 2020 election

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  • Yes/ No/ Maybe Hall of Fame Project, 2020 election


    Welcome to the Yes/No/Maybe Ballot Hall of Fame! In this project, candidates are listed and you can vote for them for this Hall (yes), against allowing them in this Hall (no) or that maybe they belong and maybe they don't (maybe). For Japanese players and Negro Leaguers, you may also use maybe votes as a means of abstaining.


    The rules are as follows:

    1) Player eligibility is the earliest of three years:
    a) Last year played plus five;
    b) Year of death plus two; or
    c) First full season of age 40 or later in which he did not play.

    2) Contributor eligibility is the earliest of two years:
    a) Age 65 year; or
    b) Year of death plus two.

    3) Any year in which there is no new eligible contributor will have no contributor election.

    4) Any year without any new eligible contributors or players will be skipped. If there is a new contributor but no new players, both elections will be held.


    5) Write in votes are not allowed. If there is someone you wish to vote for who is not listed, you may inquire when he becomes eligible and/or nominate him for consideration.

    6) If there is a candidate you would vote to include in the Hall who is not on the list, you are free to nominate him. If I agree he should be added, he will be. If I do not, and at least one other voter is willing to vote for your nominee, he will be added. If not, he will not.

    7) For Negro League and Japanese players, if you wish to abstain, vote maybe. If any player is eliminated by virtue of a voters refusal to do anything but vote no an all players from one or both of those groups, he will be reinstated if the voter’s vote had been maybe instead. Any voter determined to have voted in that fashion will only have the maybe or yes options for candidates from that group. Abstentions will be treated as maybe votes.

    8) I will list the players by the year they first appeared on the ballot to assist cut and paste votes. I must request you follow that format in your vote to make my tabulation of the votes easier. There are four possible votes: Yes, which may be signified by the word or just Y in upper or lower case; No, which may also be signified by the word or just N in upper or lower case; Maybe, which may be signified by the word or MM in upper or lower case to distinguish it from No votes; and Abstain, which may be signified by the word or A in upper or lower case.


    9) Candidates will be inducted with the greater of six votes or at least 75% of the vote. The number of votes is determined by the number of yes votes plus one half the maybe votes for any candidate who has already been on at least two ballots. Candidates who receive at least 50% no votes will be removed from the ballot. The number of no votes is determined by the number of no votes plus one half the maybe votes for any candidate who has already been on at least two ballots. After the fifth year on the ballot, the percentage of yes votes needed to stay on the ballot will rise by 3% each election until the 13th year, on the ballot, when the required percentage of yes votes will be 74%. If a player continually remains between 74 and 75% yes votes, he will remain on the ballot.

    10) When voting for a player, we're only considering his playing career. As with the Hall, voters may consider the character issue. If he's a pioneer, he'll appear at age 65 or year of death +2 on the contributor list.

    11) If a player is listed on both ballots, you may vote for him in one, both or neither. If a candidate is elected on both ballots, he will be listed as a player. Once a player is elected, he will no longer appear on any ballots.

    12) One other thing to keep in mind: sometimes, contributors had major accomplishments after age 65. Please only credit such candidates with accomplishments as of the year you’re voting in. In 1945, for example, you should not credit Branch Rickey with his move to integrate the game when he hadn’t even signed Jackie Robinson yet.

    13) Votes may be changed up until the voting is closed. I do request that you PM me telling me about the change or make a new post in the thread to make sure I do not miss it. If this is not followed, I will attempt to take remedial action, but I will not revoke a declaration someone is elected because someone changed their vote to a less favorable position on a candidate without following this rule.

    14) If a candidate is voted out, there will be a mechanism to renew his eligibility. The candidate needs to wait at least five elections before being reinstated the first time, ten the second, fifteen the third and so forth (the greater of how many years he was credited with being on the ballot the last time or five years plus five years per each previous reinstatements). When the waiting period is over, the greater of three voters in the previous election or one-third the voters in the previous election must indicate they are all willing to a) vote for him in the next election, and b) subject him to the risk of a longer mandatory wait if he gets eliminated from the ballot again. Any reinstated candidate will be treated as in his third year on the ballot since he's already had the opportunity to have his case discussed and considered by the voters.

    15) Elections will typically remain open for a week, though I may extend that period at my discretion. I am inclined to extend the period to try and get a minimum of eight votes, so long as the missing vote(s) could alter a candidate's status (inducted, stays on ballot, dropped from ballot). This particular election will be open until five minutes before the posting of the official results after 7 am ET Saturday, April 4, 2020

    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  • #2

    Our list of inductees:

    Alphabetical List of inducted players

    Code:
    Hank Aaron
    Pete Alexander
    Dick Allen
    Roberto Alomar
    Cap Anson
    Luke Appling
    Richie Ashburn
    Earl Averill
    Jeff Bagwell
    Frank (Home Run) Baker
    Dave Bancroft
    Ernie Banks
    Ross Barnes
    Jake Beckley
    John Beckwith
    Cool Papa Bell
    Carlos Beltran
    Johnny Bench
    Charlie Bennett
    Yogi Berra
    Akira Bessho
    Craig Biggio
    Bert Blyleven
    Wade Boggs
    Barry Bonds
    Lou Boudreau
    Ken Boyer
    Roger Bresnahan
    George Brett
    Lou Brock
    Dan Brouthers
    Mordecai Brown
    Ray Brown
    Willard Brown
    Jim Bunning
    Jesse Burkett
    Roy Campanella
    Rod Carew
    Max Carey
    Steve Carlton
    Gary Carter
    Bob Caruthers
    Perucho Cepeda
    Frank Chance
    Oscar Charleston
    Fred Clarke
    John Clarkson
    1roger Clemens
    Roberto Clemente
    Ty Cobb
    Mickey Cochrane
    Eddie Collins
    Jimmy Collins
    David Cone
    Roger Connor
    Stan Coveleski
    Sam Crawford
    Joe Cronin
    Bill Dahlen
    George Davis
    Andre Dawson
    Leon Day
    Dizzy Dean
    Ed Delahanty
    Bill Dickey
    Martin Dihigo
    Joe DiMaggio
    Larry Doby
    Bobby Doerr
    Don Drysdale
    Dennis Eckersley
    Jim Edmonds
    Yutaka Enatsu
    Dwight Evans
    Buck Ewing
    Red Faber
    Bob Feller
    Wes Ferrell
    Carlton Fisk
    Elmer Flick
    Whitey Ford
    Rube Foster
    Willie Foster
    Nellie Fox
    Jimmie Foxx
    Bill Freehan
    Frankie Frisch
    Pud Galvin
    Lou Gehrig
    Charlie Gehringer
    Bob Gibson
    Josh Gibson
    Jack Glasscock
    Tom Glavine
    Joe Gordon
    Goose Goslin
    Goose 1gossage
    Frank Grant
    Hank Greenberg
    Bobby Grich
    Ken Griffey, Jr.
    Heinie Groh
    Lefty Grove
    Vladimir Guerrero
    Tony Gwynn
    Roy Halladay
    Billy Hamilton
    Isao Harimoto
    Gabby Hartnett
    Harry Heilmann
    Todd Helton
    Rickey Henderson
    Billy Herman
    Keith Hernandez
    Pete Hill
    Paul Hines
    Rogers Hornsby
    Carl Hubbell
    Kazuhisa Inao
    Monte Irvin
    Reggie Jackson
    Hughie Jennings
    Ferguson Jenkins
    Derek Jeter
    Tommy John
    Bob Johnson
    Home Run Johnson
    Randy Johnson
    Walter Johnson
    Andruw Jones
    Al Kaline
    Masaichi Kaneda
    Tim Keefe
    Willie Keeler
    Joe Kelley
    King Kelly
    Jeff Kent
    Harmon Killebrew
    Ralph Kiner
    Sandy Koufax
    Masaaki Koyama
    Nap LaJoie
    Barry Larkin
    Bob Lemon
    Buck Leonard
    Pop Lloyd
    Dick Lundy
    Ted Lyons
    Biz Mackey
    Greg Maddux
    Sherry Magee
    Mickey Mantle
    Juan Marichal
    Edgar Martinez
    Pedro Martinez
    Eddie Mathews
    Christy Mathewson
    Willie Mays
    Willie McCovey
    Joe McGinnity
    John McGraw
    Fred McGriff
    Bid McPhee
    Cal McVey
    Joe Medwick
    Jose Mendez
    Minnie Minoso
    Johnny Mize
    Paul Molitor
    Joe Morgan
    Thurman Munson
    Eddie Murray
    Stan Musial
    Mike Mussina
    Shigeo Nagashima
    Graig Nettles
    Hal Newhouser
    Kid Nichols
    Phil Niekro
    Katsuya Nomura
    Hiromichi Ochiai
    Sadaharu Oh
    Alejandro Oms
    Jim O'Rourke
    Mel Ott
    Satchel Paige
    Jim Palmer
    Tont Perez
    Gaylord Perry
    Mike Piazza
    Billy Pierce
    Lip Pike
    Eddie Plank
    Kirby Puckett
    Old Hoss Radbourn
    Tim Raines
    Dick Redding
    Pee Wee Reese
    Sam Rice
    Cal Ripken, Jr.
    Mariano Rivera
    Robin Roberts
    Brooks Robinson
    Frank Robinson
    Jackie Robinson
    Alex Rodriguez
    Ivan Rodriguez
    Bullet Joe Rogan
    Red Ruffing
    Amos Rusie
    Babe Ruth
    Noan Ryan
    Ryne Sandberg
    Ron Santo
    Louis Santop
    Wally Schang
    Curt Schilling
    Mike Schmidt
    Tom Seaver
    Joe Sewell
    Urban Shocker
    Al Simmons
    Ted Simmons
    George Sisler
    Enos Slaughter
    Hilton Smith
    Ozzie Smith
    Reggie Smith
    John Smoltz
    Duke Snider
    Warren Spahn
    Al Spalding
    Tris Speaker
    Victor Starffin
    Willie Stargell
    Joe Start
    Turkey Stearnes
    Dave Steib
    Harry Stovey
    Mule Suttles
    Don Sutton
    Ben Taylor
    Bill Terry
    Frank Thomas
    Jim Thome
    Sam Thompson
    Luis Tiant Jr
    Joe Tinker
    Joe Torre
    Cristobal Torriente
    Alan Trammell
    Quincy Trouppe
    Dazzy Vance
    Arky Vaughan
    Rube Waddell
    Honus Wagner
    Larry Walker
    Bobby Wallace
    Ed Walsh
    Paul Waner
    John Montgomery Ward
    Willie Wells
    Zack Wheat
    Lou Whitaker
    Deacon White
    Hoyt Wilhelm
    Billy Williams
    Smoky Joe Williams
    Ted Williams
    Vic Willis
    Jud Wilson
    Dave Winfield
    George Wright
    Early Wynn
    Carl Yastrzemski
    Tetsuya Yoneda
    Cy Young
    Robin Yount
    Alphabetical list of inducted contributors

    Code:
    Iso Abe
    Doc Adams
    Doug Allison
    Walter Alston
    Sparky Anderson
    Ed Barrow
    Ed Bolden
    Henry Chadwick
    Charlie Comiskey
    Bobby Cox
    Jim Creighton
    Tom Connolly
    Harry Dalton
    Jack Dunn
    Leo Durcher
    Al Munro Elias
    Billy Evans
    Pat Gillick
    Clark Griffith
    Ned Hanlon
    Bucky Harris
    Vic Harris
    Whitey Herzog
    John Heydler
    Bob Howsam
    Miller Huggins
    William Hulbert
    Bill James
    Ban Johnson
    Tetsuharu Kawakami
    Bill Klem
    Kenesaw Landis
    Tony LaRussa
    Tommy Lasords
    Joe Leggett
    Jim Leyland
    Al Lopez
    Connie Mack
    Larry MacPhail
    Joe McCarthy
    Bill McKechnie
    Osamu MIhara
    Marvin Miller
    Shigeru Mizuhara
    Tim Murnane
    Yuki Nishimoto
    Hank O'Day
    Lefty O'Doul
    Walter O'Malley
    Buck O'Neil
    Pete Palmer
    Dickey Pearce
    Alex Pompez
    Cum Posey
    Al Reach
    Francis Richter
    Branch Rickey
    Phil Rizzuto
    Tubby Scales
    John Scheurholz
    Vin Scully
    Frank Selee
    Ben Shibe
    Matsutaro Shoriki
    Billy Southworth
    Al Spalding
    J. G. Taylor Spink
    Casey Stengel
    C. I. Taylor
    Kazuto Tsuruoka
    Bill Veeck
    Louis Wadsworth
    Earl Wever
    George Weiss
    William Wheaton
    Sol White
    J L Wilkinson
    Dick Williams
    Harry Wright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

    Comment


    • #3

      Our history of inductions:

      Inducted players by year inducted

      Code:
      1894--Ross Barnes, Al Spalding, Joe Start, Deacon White, George Wright
      1895--Charlie Bennett, Old Hoss Radbourn
      1896--Paul Hines
      1897--Pud Galvin
      1898--Cap Anson, Roger Connor, Jack Glasscock, Tim Keefe, King Kelly
      1899--Bob Caruthers, John Clarkson, John Montgomery Ward
      1900--Buck Ewing, Bid McPhee
      1903--Cal McVey
      1905--Dan Brouthers, Jim O'Rourke
      1906--Billy Hamilton, Amos Rusie
      1907--Lip Pike
      1908--Ed Delahanty, Frank Grant, Sam Thompson
      1909--Jesse Burkett
      1910--Jake Beckley, Kid Nichols
      1911--Jimmy Collins, George Davis, John McGraw
      1912--Bill Dahlen, Joe Kelley, Joe McGinnity, Cy Young
      1913--Willie Keeler
      1915--Elmer Flick, Rube Waddell, Vic Willis
      1916--Fred Clarke
      1917--Mordecai Brown, Home Run Johnson, Nap LaJoie
      1918--Eddie Plank, Honus Wagner
      1919--Frank Chance, Bobby Wallace
      1920--Roger Bresnahan
      1921--Sam Crawford, Christy Mathewson, Joe Tinker
      1922--Hughie Jennings, Ed Walsh
      1924--Sherry Magee
      1927--Frank (Home Run) Baker
      1928--Walter Johnson
      1929--Ty Cobb, Rube Foster, Tris Speaker, Zack Wheat
      1930--Stan Coveleski, Heinie Groh
      1931--Pete Alexander, Max Carey, Eddie Collins, Louis Santop
      1933--Dave Bancroft, Pop Lloyd, Urban Shocker, Cristobal torriente, Smoky Joe Williams
      1934--Red Faber. Jose Mendez, George Sisler
      1935--Harry Heilmann
      1936--Babe Ruth, Dazzy Vance
      1938--Rogers Hornsby, Alejandro Oms, Joe Sewell
      1939--Frankie Frisch, Bullet Joe Rogan, Bill Terry
      1941--Goose Goslin
      1942--Oscar Charleston, Mickey Cochrane, Lefty Grove, Gabby Hartnett
      1943--Earl Averill, John Beckwith, Willie Foster, Dick Redding, Turkey Stearnes
      1944--Lou Gehrig, Charlie Gehringer, Carl Hubbell
      1945--Al Simmons, Mule Suttles
      1946--Martin Dihigo, Wes Ferrell, Bob Johnson, Paul Waner
      1947--Joe Cronin, Ted Lyons, Jud Wilson
      1948--Cool Papa Bell, Bill Dickey, Jimmie Foxx, Biz Mackey, Red Ruffing
      1949--Ray Brown
      1950--Billy Herman, Mel Ott, Willie Wells
      1951--Luke Appling, Josh Gibson, Buck Leonard, Hilton Smith
      1952--Dizzy Dean, Hank Greenberg, Joe Medwick
      1953--Arky Vaughan
      1954--Pete Hill, Johnny Mize
      1955--Leon Day, Joe DiMaggio, Joe Gordon, Dick Lundy, Quincy Trouppe
      1956--Bobby Doerr
      1957--Lou Boudreau
      1958--Willard Brown, Perucho Cepeda, Victor Starffin
      1959--Bob Feller, Pee Wee Reese
      1960--Monte Irvin, Ralph Kiner, Hal Newhouser, Jackie Robinson, Enos Slaughter
      1961--Bob Lemon, Ted Williams
      1962--Roy Campanella
      1964--Larry Doby, Stan Musial, Early Wynn
      1966--Yogi Berra, Satchel Paige, Warren Spahn
      1967--Richie Ashburn, Robin Roberts, Duke Snider
      1968--Nellie Fox. Billy Pierce
      1969--Whitey Ford
      1970--Akira Bessho
      1971--Sandy Koufax
      1972--Ernie Banks, Jim Bunning, Mickey Mantle, Eddie Mathews
      1973--Ken Boyer, Hoyt Wilhelm
      1974--Don Drysdale, Willie Mays
      1975--Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline
      1976--Bob Gibson, Kazuhisa Inao, Masaichi Kaneda
      1977--Hank Aaron, Harmon Killebrew, Masaaki Koyama, Frank Robinson
      1978--Juan Marichal, Brooks Robinson
      1979--Ron Santo, Billy Williams
      1980--Lou Brock
      1981--Willie McCovey, Minnie Minoso, Shigeo Nagashima, Katsuya Nomura, Sadaharu Oh, Tetsuya Yoneda
      1982--Dick Allen, Bill Freehan, Joe Torre
      1983--Willie Stargell, Luis Tiant Jr.
      1984--Isao Harimoto, Ferguson Jenkins, Thurman Munson, Gaylord Perry, Carl Yastrzemski
      1985--Joe Morgan
      1986--Rod Carew, Jim Palmer
      1987--Tom Seaver
      1988--Johnny Bench, Reggie Jackson, Phil Niekro
      1989--Steve Carlton, Tony Perez, Reggie Smith, Don Sutton
      1990--Mike Schmidt, Ted Simmons
      1991--Yutaka Enatsu, Bobby Grich, Graig Nettes
      1993--Bert Blyleven, Dwight Evans
      1994--George Brett, Carlton Fisk, Tommy John, Nolan Ryan
      1995--Gary Carter, Goose Gossage, Sam Rice
      1996--Keith Hernandez, Dave Winfield, Robin Yount
      1997--Andre Dawson, Ozzie Smith
      1998--Eddie Murray, Lou Whitaker
      1999--Dennis Eckersley, Paul Molitor, Alan Trammell
      2000--Wade Boggs, Kirby Puckett, Ryne Sandberg
      2002--Tony Gwynn, Hiromitsu Ochiai, Cal Ripken, Jr.
      2003--Tim Raines
      2004--Rickey Henderson
      2005--Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez
      2007--Larry Walker
      2008--Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Fred McGriff
      2009--Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Dave Steib
      2010--Randy Johnson
      2011--Jim Edmonds, Tom Glavine, Ken Griffey Jr, Frank Thomas
      2012--Pedro Martinez, Ivan Rodriguez
      2013--Jim Thome
      2014--Todd Helton, Mariano Rivera
      2015--Derek Jeter
      2016--Vladimir Guerrero
      2018--Roy Halladay
      2018 special election:  David Cone, Wally Schang, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, Harry Stovey, Ben Taylor
      2019--Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Alex Rodriguez
      Inducted contributors by year inducted

      Code:
      1894--Doc Adams, Henry Chadwick, William Hulbert
      1896--Jim Creighton, William Wheaton
      1897--Harry Wright
      1903--Dickey Pearce, Ben Shibe
      1905--Al Reach
      1908--Joe Leggett, Louis Wadsworth
      1911--Frank Selee
      1915--Al Spalding
      1919--Doug Allison
      1920--Tim Murnane, Francis Richter
      1922--Ned Hanlon
      1924--Charlie Comiskey, C. I. Taylor
      1926--Hank O'Day
      1927--Connie Mack
      1929--John Heydler, Ban Johnson
      1931--Miller Huggins, Kenesaw Landis
      1932--Iso Abe, Ed Barrow, Jack Dunn
      1933--Clark Griffith, Sol White
      1937--Tom Connolly, Al Munro Elias
      1941--Bill Klem-
      1943--J L Wilkinson
      1946--Branch Rickey
      1948--Ed Bolden, Cum Posey
      1950--Billy Evans, Matsutaro Shoriki
      1951--Bill McKechnie
      1952--Joe McCarthy
      1953--J. G. Taylor Spink
      1955--Larry MacPhail, Alex Pompez, Casey Stengel
      1958--Billy Southworth
      1959--George Weiss
      1961--Bucky Harris
      1962--Lefty O'Doul
      1970--Leo Durocher, Vic harris, Walter O'Malley
      1971--Tubby Scales
      1973--Al Lopez
      1976--Walter Alston, Buck O'Neil
      1978--Shigeru Mizuhara
      1979--Osamu Mihara
      1981--Phil Rizzuto, Kazuto Tsuruoka
      1982--Marvin Miller
      1983--Bob Howsam
      1986--Harry Dalton, Tetsuharu Kawakami
      1987--Yuki Nishimoto
      1988--Bill Veeck
      1992--Vin Scully
      1994--Tommy Lasorda, Dick Willisms
      1995--Earl Weaver
      1996--Whitey Herzog
      1999--Sparky Anderson
      2002--Pat Gillick
      2003--Pete Palmer
      2005--John Scheurholz
      2006--Bobby Cox
      2009--Tony LaRussa
      2011--Jim Leyland
      2014--Bill James
      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

      Comment


      • #4
        I will provide information on our two Negro League candidates:44

        Bus Clarkson

        This one won't be short, as it is clear from the Suburbs of Cooperstown project discussion that there's at least some skepticism about this guy as a great one. The guys over at Baseball Think Factory discussed him, and I'm going to quote some of what I regard as their most important comments on the case.

        Let's get to some critical issues as to why Clarkson isn't often thought of as a great. Dr. Chaleeko over at BBTF made these important points:

        I think one of the reasons there's not much awareness of Clarkson is the fragmentary nature of his career. He moved around a lot, from one team to another, from one league to another, from one country to another, from one level of the minors to another, from the ballplaying to the war and back. He didn't get a real shot in MLB, and by then he was already 32 and past his salad days. I just don't think he was ever in one place long enough for anyone to fix his image in their mind.

        I believe this is one of the subtler effects of the color barrier and of the slow pace of integration.
        ...........
        One overlooked thing that is really in Clarkson's favor is the leagues he was actually in.

        Clarkson played pretty much his entire post-NgL prime in really good leagues: MxL (during the Pasquel raids of MLB and before integration), AA for three years, PCL for a couple, and then declining in the TxL. He played a lot of games in very high minor leagues during his post-peak period and did uniformly well in them.
        Clarkson racked up some impressive results in the Puerto Rican Winter League in 11 seasons there, only the first two of which came before his 31st birthday: a first and two seconds in homers; a first , third, fourth and fifth in RBI; a first, third and fourth in runs scored; a first and a fourth in steals; and a third in hits. Many of his best years were between 1946 and 1951, when integration was just starting, and thus the PRWL still had significant supplies of Negro League talent for him to compete against. He was a two time Negro League all-star in the days before they were stripped of talent--and that was in only six years in those particular leagues, as he played a lot in Mexico. Even so, he got a second in homers in the Negro Leagues he was in. You've got to remember that while he may not have been a wizard with the glove, he was probably an adequate middle infielder--and those are great marks for such a player.

        Eric Chaleeko did a MLE of Clarkson's career for the Hall of Miller and Eric project. He had him with just over 60 WAR in 7430 PA, and since there's some flattening of peaks due to the issues presented by the short Negro League seasons, I did a regression to determine what his overall score would be in my system. He winds up over the clearly in cutoff with 128 points.

        Additionally, Gary A of BBTF has done a fine job of compiling how BBF HOF member Willard Brown did compared to Clarkson when they played in the same leagues. Brown was a CF much of the time, but that's about equivalent to the defensive value of 3B, and if Clarkson was competent in middle infield defense, that would mean Clarkson would have an edge in defensive value in all likelihood.

        Anyway, to Gary A's analysis:

        On the very limited (but still significant) issue of Bus Clarkson vs. Willard Brown: I thought I’d put together a comparison of them when they played in the same league (Mexican League, Puerto Rican Winter League, and Texas League). They were the same age and often played on the same teams.

        In the Mexican League, 1940-41, at ages 25-26, this is how they hit:

        Code:
        ………….... G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB K HBP SB avg obp slg
        Brown.... 98 419 136 25 4 10 69 85 14 20 0 18 325 346 475
        Clarkson 101 406 136 27 6 20 79 96 48 72 1 8 335 405 579
        In 1940, they played on the same team (Nuevo Laredo), Brown for 70 games, Clarkson 19. Dr. Chaleeko, in a study of Mexican League park factors, gave Nuevo Laredo a BRF of .97. In 1941, Clarkson went to Tampico for 82 games (BRF .95), Brown to Aguila of Veracruz for 28 games (also .95).

        In the 1953-54 Texas League, ages 38-39, this is how they hit:

        Code:
        ………….... G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI BB K SB avg obp slg
        Brown.... 282 1105 345 72 7 58 183 228 70 108 5 312 353 548
        Clarkson 294 988 323 53 3 60 200 222 204 99 18 327 442 569
        In 1953 they both played for Dallas; in 1954 Brown played for Dallas and Houston, Clarkson for Beaumont and Dallas. So roughly three-fourths of these two years were spent in the same home park.

        I don’t have year-by-year stats for both of them from the Puerto Rican Winter League, but I do have their career stats. Brown played in Puerto Rico for ten winters between 1941/42 and 1956/57 (between ages 26 and 41); Clarkson for ten winters between 1940/41 and 1954/55 (ages 25 to 39). They spent eight seasons in the league together, four of them for the same team.

        The Puerto Rican stats don’t include walks. For Brown, these are the BB/AB rates we have:
        1940-41 MxL: 14/419, .033
        1937-49 NeL: 109/1769, .062
        1953-54 TxL: 70/1105, .063

        For Clarkson we have:
        1940-41 MxL: 48/406, .118
        1946-47 MxL: 103/521, .198
        1950-52 AA: 125/724, .173
        1953-54 TxL: 204/988, .206

        For Brown, I used the highest walk figure available, .063. For Clarkson I simply averaged the four rates (getting .174, nearly the same as his walk rate in the American Association). This is extemely advantageous to Brown, as when they actually played side by side in the Mexican and Texas Leagues, Clarkson’s walk rate was well over three times Brown’s.

        This is what the Puerto Rican stats look like, with hypothetical walks added in:
        Code:
        ………….... AB H 2B 3B HR R BB avg obp slg
        Brown.... 1940 679 135 27 101 378 120 350 388 604
        Clarkson 2063 621 109 15 98 448 359 301 405 511
        Adding everything (Mexico 1940-41, Puerto Rico 1940-57, and Texas 1953-54), this is what we get:

        Code:
        ………….... AB H 2B 3B HR R BB avg obp slg
        Brown.... 3464 1160 232 38 169 630 204 335 372 570
        Clarkson 3457 1080 189 24 178 727 611 312 416 535
        Bottom line is: in leagues they played together, mostly for the same team, in seasons that are spread out over their whole careers (from roughly ages 25 to 40), Brown hit 335/372/570; Clarkson 312/416/535. Brown has a 35-point advantage in SLG, Clarkson a 44-point advantage in OBP.
        It seems to me that the evidence available supports the notion that Clarkson is a worthy candidate for the Hall, and thus I support him.

        Bus Clarkson whose projection is:

        Code:
        ab h tb xb bb
        7711 2132 3511 1379 1119
        which is a career line of .276 / .368 / .455

        and his comps are:
        Bell, Buddy
        Downing
        Grich
        Harrah
        Morgan
        Nettles
        Sandberg
        Wallach
        Whitaker
        White, F

        I will add that the limited seamheads data (460 PA, ending by his age 27 year) yields a superb MLE OPS+ of 155. That's HOF caliber play no matter the position. It doesn't prove the case by itself, since the amount of data and the time it covers are so limited, but it certainly fits in well with the above analysis which finds him worthy of the Hall.

        Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
        Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
        A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

        Comment


        • #5
          Dobie Moore

          He really doesn't have many accolades, because he only played seven years in the Negro Leagues. However, that misses the fact Moore was making a living for the excellent 25th Infantry Wreckers team from 1916, several years before he joined the Negro Leagues. Truthfully, for an Afro-American of the day, his career path represents a realistic way of making a living as a ballplayer.

          The Wreckers of that time were a heck of a team. They often faced Pacific League teams, and won the lion's share of those games. In 1913, the only team to beat them in 21 games was made up of major leaguers and Pacific League all-stars. They achieved such renown that the Spalding Company offered to sponsor a tour of the team, but the Army declined.

          Moore led the California Winter League in hits twice, and homers and average once each. In the Cuban Winter League, he led in hits once. In the Negro Leagues, John Holway named him an all-star in all six of his complete seasons, and he was in the top five in homers four times. It is important to remember this is from a good defensive shortstop who also hit for a high average.

          His MLE OPS+ from ages 24 to 29 would put him third among shortstops for that age range, behind A-Rod and Ernie Banks. This is derived from the seamheads data for those ages, which captures 2321 PA.

          William McNeil writes this of Moore on pages 105 and 106 of Cool Papas and Double Duties:
          "Dobie" Moore was a great shortstop whose brilliant career was cut short [by injuries suffered in an unfortunate incident] . . . [The 25th Infantry team] dominated the amateur sports world during the teens. The 25th included a number of players who would eventually leave the Army to [lead the Kansas City Monarchs to Negro League championships] . . . There was pitcher Bullet Joe Rogan, first baseman Lemuel Hawkins, second baseman Bob Fagan, and outfielders Oscar "Heavy" Johnson and Hurley McNair [in addition to Moore].

          Moore . . . was a sensational all-around ballplayer with a deadly bat and a trusty glove [well before going to the Monarchs] . . . After Casey Stengel played an exhibition game against the 25th in 1919, he recommended Moore and several other players to J. L. Wilkinson, owner of the Monarchs . . . .

          It didn't take Dobie Moore long to be recognized in the Negro National League. In addition to playing brilliant defense, he scorched the ball at the plate, with extra-base power. . . . [The 5' 11", 230 pound slugger hit .367 in 1922 and followed that season with averages of .358, .470, .326 and .381. In 1924, he captured the batting championship with his .470 average and also took the home-run crown . . . He was the Monarch's clean-up hitter for seven years.

          [With the former 25th Infantry players leading the way] the Monarchs raced to three league titles and one [Negro] World Championship between 1924 and 1926 . . .

          [On May 23, 1926, Moore became involved in a domestic dispute in which he was shot in the leg by his girlfriend and jumped off terrace to escape. It's unclear whether the shot, the landing from the jump, or the combination did the damage, but the bones in his leg were shattered into six pieces (See Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, page 566]

          In any case, a magnificent baseball career ended abruptly. The cold statistics say Dobie Moore had a career batting average of .355. with 32 doubles, 14 triples and 15 home runs for every 550 at bats. He was, according to all accounts, one of the top four shortstops in Negro League history [with Lloyd, Wells and Lundy] . . . but Dobie Moore could outhit all of them [for average] and was the greatest power hitter of the four, making him the best all-around shortstop in the annals of Negro league baseball.
          The problem for Moore is, was he a HOFer when his career ended at age 30? Eric Chaleeko did an MLE of Moore which included his time in the military, and came up with 64 WAR in 5430 PA, and my regression places that well into the clearly in group. I'll go with that.

          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

          Comment


          • #6
            Here's the ballot, which includes carryovers from 2019:
            ...
            Lance Berkman
            Johan Santana
            ….
            Pete Browning
            Bus Clarkson
            Joe Jackson
            Jim McCormick
            Dobie Moore
            Rick Reuschel
            Jimmy Wynn
            ……
            Bobby Abreu
            Tim Hudson
            David Ortiz
            …...
            Adrian Beltre
            Adam Dunn
            Ichiro Suzuki
            Chase Utley
            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

            Comment


            • #7
              My ballot:...
              Lance Berkman--no
              Johan Santana--yes
              ….
              Pete Browning--no
              Bus Clarkson--yes
              Joe Jackson--no
              Jim McCormick--yes
              Dobie Moore--yes
              Rick Reuschel--yes
              Jimmy Wynn--no
              ……
              Bobby Abreu--no
              Tim Hudson--no
              David Ortiz--yes
              …...
              Adrian Beltre--yes
              Adam Dunn--no
              Ichiro Suzuki--yes
              Chase Utley--yes
              Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
              Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
              A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

              Comment


              • #8
                Results of the previous election:4
                ....
                % yes % no Player
                68.2 31.8 Lance Berkman
                68.2 31.8 Johan Santana
                ….
                68.2 31.8 Pete Browning
                72.7 27.3 Bus Clarkson
                54.5 45.5 Joe Jackson
                72.7 27.3 Jim McCormick
                68.2 31.8 Dobie Moore
                63.6 36.4 Rick Reuschel
                54.5 45.5 Jimmy Wynn
                ……
                45.5 36.4 Bobby Abreu
                36.4 36.4 Tim Hudson
                72.7 9.1 David Ortiz
                Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Lance Berkman-no
                  Johan Santana-yes
                  ….
                  Pete Browning-yes
                  Bus Clarkson-no
                  Joe Jackson-yes
                  Jim McCormick-no
                  Dobie Moore-yes
                  Rick Reuschel-no
                  Jimmy Wynn-yes
                  ……
                  Bobby Abreu-yes
                  Tim Hudson-yes
                  David Ortiz-no
                  …...
                  Adrian Beltre-yes
                  Adam Dunn-no
                  Ichiro Suzuki-yes
                  Chase Utley-yes

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Yes to everyone except for Adam Dunn.


                    Lance Berkman - YES
                    Johan Santana - YES

                    Pete Browning - YES
                    Bus Clarkson - YES
                    Joe Jackson - YES
                    Jim McCormick - YES
                    Dobie Moore - YES
                    Rick Reuschel - YES
                    Jimmy Wynn - YES

                    Bobby Abreu - YES
                    Tim Hudson - YES
                    David Ortiz - YES

                    Adrian Beltre - YES
                    Adam Dunn - NO
                    Ichiro Suzuki - YES
                    Chase Utley - YES
                    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Lance Berkman- Maybe
                      Johan Santana- Yes

                      Pete Browning- Maybe
                      Bus Clarkson- Maybe
                      Joe Jackson- Yes
                      Jim McCormick- Yes
                      Dobie Moore- Maybe
                      Rick Reuschel- Yes
                      Jimmy Wynn- Maybe

                      Bobby Abreu- Maybe
                      Tim Hudson- Yes
                      David Ortiz- No

                      Adrian Beltre- Yes
                      Adam Dunn- No
                      Ichiro Suzuki- Maybe (based on MLB career only)
                      Chase Utley- Yes
                      Last edited by NJRob65; 03-23-2020, 02:47 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by NJRob65 View Post
                        Ichiro Suzuki- No(based on MLB career only)
                        3,000 career hits, 500 career steals, nearly 4,000 career total bases, a .311 career BA, 10 All-Star games, 10 Gold Glove Awards, an MVP Award, leading the league in hits 7 times.....that's not enough MLB resume to justify election?

                        That's harsh, man.
                        "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                        "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                        "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                        "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Lance Berkman maybe
                          Johan Santana no
                          ….
                          Pete Browning no
                          Bus Clarkson maybe
                          Joe Jackson maybe
                          Jim McCormick yes
                          Dobie Moore maybe
                          Rick Reuschel no
                          Jimmy Wynn no
                          ……
                          Bobby Abreu maybe
                          Tim Hudson no
                          David Ortiz yes
                          …...
                          Adrian Beltre yes
                          Adam Dunn no
                          Ichiro Suzuki yes
                          Chase Utley maybe

                          Comment


                          • #14

                            Lance Berkman - Yes
                            Johan Santana - No

                            Pete Browning - Yes
                            Bus Clarkson - Maybe
                            Joe Jackson - Yes
                            Jim McCormick - No
                            Dobie Moore - Maybe
                            Rick Reuschel - No
                            Jimmy Wynn - No

                            Bobby Abreu - No
                            Tim Hudson - Maybe
                            David Ortiz - Yes

                            Adrian Beltre - Yes
                            Adam Dunn - No
                            Ichiro Suzuki - Yes
                            Chase Utley - Yes
                            "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Is there a link to the last one of these Yes/No/Maybe votes? I want to see if I participated and, if so, how I voted. But I can't find the "2019" vote. The most recent one I could find was "2010".

                              Comment

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