Aaron Judge

[Yuri89]

Couldnt find a proper thread for Judge in the all players thread.

Judge plays like a Hofer, theres is no single doubt about it.
But the question is here, Having started rather late, what are his odds for the Hall of fame

[redban]

Low odds, unless he performs well after age-35. Given the late start, the loss of 2020, and the injuries —- He will be fortunate to match Lance Berkman’s career output. Lance Berkman was one and done with 1% or so of the vote.

[Chadwick]

He's a corner outfielder and this is only his second time hitting more than 27 homers in a season. Not coincidentally, it's also only the second time in his six-year MLB career that Judge has seen more than 413 AB in a season. Judge has only exceeded 76 RBI in a season once despite hitting in the heart of the Yankee lineup. His career average 1.30 strikeouts per game is effectively the same as Chris Davis (1.31) and the fourth worst K-rate of any batter in history with at least 500 career strikeouts. He's had one excellent season (in spite of the whiffs). So "no doubt about [whether he plays like a HOFer]"? I'd say there's at least a few. Throw in a predilection for the Injured List and Judge is nothing more than a Giancarlo Stanton wannabe. Stanton, a better player for far longer, has at least cobbled together a resume worth looking at (despite it needing to be added to). When Judge can match Stanton's (now) resume, maybe we'll revisit this at that time, but I don't see him being able to do that.

[pedrosrotatorcuff]

He's a more fragile Giancarlo Stanton. He produces like an absolute madman when he's on the field¹... the latter part of that being the key. If he can't stay upright then his case is dead in the water.

¹including Ks at one of the most prodigious rates ever as Chad mentioned

[Yuri89]

. Not coincidentally, it's also only the second time in his six-year MLB career that Judge has seen more than 413 AB in a season. Judge has only exceeded 76 RBI in a season once despite hitting in the heart of the Yankee lineup. His career average 1.30 strikeouts per game is effectively the same as Chris Davis (1.31) and the fourth worst K-rate of any batter in history with at least 500 career strikeouts. He's had one excellent season (in spite of the whiffs). So "no doubt about [whether he plays like a HOFer]"? I'.

Man as I see it he plays undeniably like a hofer. Yes he hasnt stayed on the field much.


277/ 388/ 552 OPs + 150 ?? !!!!
Hes had around 23000 PA, 25.5 WAR
give the man a career of 8000 PA and some performance decline and the guy cracks 75 WAR and he is a surefire hofer.
His Problem is, how long will he be able to play?

[Yuri89]

Low odds, unless he performs well after age-35. Given the late start, the loss of 2020, and the injuries —- He will be fortunate to match Lance Berkman’s career output. Lance Berkman was one and done with 1% or so of the vote.

And this was freakingly unnaceptable. It was about of him being a right wing person more than everythinh else. I wont say berkman is surely a hofer, but at least he was borderline. And borderlines shouldnt be one and done.

[willshad]

Man as I see it he plays undeniably like a hofer. Yes he hasnt stayed on the field much.


277/ 388/ 552 OPs + 150 ?? !!!!
Hes had around 23000 PA, 25.5 WAR
give the man a career of 8000 PA and some performance decline and the guy cracks 75 WAR and he is a surefire hofer.
His Problem is, how long will he be able to play?

Judge looks to me to be a slightly more productive, but much less durable version of Adam Dunn.

[Yuri89]

Judge looks to me to be a slightly more productive, but much less durable version of Adam Dunn.

Hmm you know that judge is actually a very good fielder right?

[Chadwick]

While I was probably underselling his performance when healthy, the fact remains he's not frequently healthy and he got a late start. I certainly wouldn't bet money on him being healthier in his thirties than he was in his twenties. He's a huge guy and that's going to mean he body is likelier to break down earlier. He's already a corner outfielder. The proclivity to swing-and-miss will get worse over time, too. You said "give the man a career of 8,000 PA".....sure, but we'd have to give it to him because he's not bloody likely to accrue those himself.

Judge is about 5,700 PA shy of 8,000 now and next year is his age-30 season. Know how many guys in history accumulated 5,700 PA from age 30 on? Less than 90. The vast majority of those didn't have Judge's injury history. I'm not saying the guy stinks. I'm saying that he hasn't been great enough for long enough to offset what will likely not be a long, slow, productive decline in the second half of his career.

We'll see. As you know, I like to see great players do it for as long as possible, but Judge is simply a guy I'm not willing to bet on.

OTOH, if he can just triple his career production - still a big ask - you're looking at 75ish WAR and the Hall of Fame. You may be on to something after all.

[Yuri89]

While I was probably underselling his performance when healthy, the fact remains he's not frequently healthy and he got a late start. I certainly wouldn't bet money on him being healthier in his thirties than he was in his twenties. He's a huge guy and that's going to mean he body is likelier to break down earlier. He's already a corner outfielder. The proclivity to swing-and-miss will get worse over time, too. You said "give the man a career of 8,000 PA".....sure, but we'd have to give it to him because he's not bloody likely to accrue those himself.

Judge is about 5,700 PA shy of 8,000 now and next year is his age-30 season. Know how many guys in history accumulated 5,700 PA from age 30 on? Less than 90. The vast majority of those didn't have Judge's injury history. I'm not saying the guy stinks. I'm saying that he hasn't been great enough for long enough to offset what will likely not be a long, slow, productive decline in the second half of his career.

We'll see. As you know, I like to see great players do it for as long as possible, but Judge is simply a guy I'm not willing to bet on.

OTOH, if he can just triple his career production - still a big ask - you're looking at 75ish WAR and the Hall of Fame. You may be on to something after all.

True that he is unlikely to reach 8000 PA. But even without that , you know corner outfielders with WARs around 60ish are good candidates for the HOF. Still I see clearly that is a big task for him.

[Chadwick]

Thought-provoking thread, as usual!

[PVNICK]

Hmm you know that judge is actually a very good fielder right?

As in good enough to be moved into CF and post positive results by defensive metrics on both BBRef and Fan Graphs every season of his career?

[Yuri89]

As in good enough to be moved into CF and post positive results by defensive metrics on both BBRef and Fan Graphs every season of his career?

Probably not , but that doesnt really matter. He alrealdy gets negative positional adjustment. A good defensive rightfielder is helping his team enough with his defense, is the difference in between having him defending, and having a manny ramirez to put an example.
Adam Dunn WAS a terrible defender , in a non premium position. My answer is related to that.

[PVNICK]

Probably not , but that doesnt really matter. He alrealdy gets negative positional adjustment. A good defensive rightfielder is helping his team enough with his defense, is the difference in between having him defending, and having a manny ramirez to put an example.
Adam Dunn WAS a terrible defender , in a non premium position. My answer is related to that.

I was stating what is true about Judge. He has a great arm and with his height can make plays at the wall others can't. I don't watch him enough to talk about his range or instincts but the fact that he plays CF when they put Stanton in the OF is not a negative

[willshad]

Hmm you know that judge is actually a very good fielder right?

I was talking about offensively. Even when healthy Judge has been a good, but not HOF level, hitter except for his somewhat flukish rookie season