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Fan Voting for 2023 BBWAA Ballot (vote for ten)

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  • Fan Voting for 2023 BBWAA Ballot (vote for ten)

    For nine years, 2012-2020, I ran an annual survey of BBF members to determine which first-year candidates should make the BBWAA ballot. In making their choices, I asked the voters to cast themselves in the role of the ballot screeners, so we could compare our choices to those of the screeners to see where they blew it.

    To achieve the desired results, I had to set a minimum, to vote for at least ten candidates. Every year someone would complain about having to vote for players that they did not see as having any business being on a ballot for the Hall of Fame. Of course, they were right: most of the players who make it past the BBWAA ballot screeners are not legitimate candidates.

    Last year I was dealing with my health and never got the survey posted. This year I figured, what’s the point? It hardly matters that they put Nick Swisher (who we gave only 42% support) on the 2021 ballot while ignoring Grady Sizemore (92%). Yes, the screeners blew it, but so what? Both players are far from being legitimate HOF candidates.

    Therefore, I decided to start a new annual survey, to determine who really deserves to be on the BBWAA ballot. Cue the mock press release:


    (COOPERSTOWN, NY) – The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum’s Board of Directors today announced major revisions to the BBWAA election process. Effective immediately, the ballot will be limited to 20 players. In addition, the BBWAA Screening Committee is eliminated, while the fans will be given a say on who will make the final ballot.

    Here is a timeline for the new election process:
    1. Late January - After the results of the annual BBWAA election are announced, the top ten returning players in the voting will have earned a place on the next ballot. For the 2023 election, the ten returning are Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Jeff Kent, Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel, and Andy Pettitte.
    2. February thru April - The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) will prepare a 25-player ballot of the top remaining candidates from the ten-year period under consideration. For the 2023 election, they will consider players who made their last appearance in MLB in the years 2008 through 2017.
    3. Late July thru early October – Fans will register at the HOF website at baseballhall.org, then vote to determine the other ten players to appear on the final ballot from the list of 25 players prepared by SABR. Voting will begin on Hall of Fame weekend and end on the day after the regular season ends.
    4. November/December – BBWAA voters will cast their ballots for the current election. Rather than be restricted to ten votes, voters will be required to vote Yes or No on all 20 candidates.
    The Hall of Fame is welcoming the fans to be a part of the election process for the first time. The Board of Directors felt it was important to give the fans a voice in the selection of who is honored by the Hall. Unlike the balloting for the all-star game, each fan will be limited to one ballot.

    The Hall of Fame is also excited to deepen its long-time partnership with SABR, the preeminent organization for scholarly research into all things baseball related. We believe there is no one more suitable for the task of compiling the ballot for the fan vote.

    By restricting the ballot to 20 candidates, the Hall of Fame is putting an end to the practice of allowing players on the ballot simply to acknowledge a fine career. Going forward, only the best candidates will be under consideration for election to the Hall of Fame.

    “With these updates to the election process, we are upholding our commitment to the very high standard of excellence that has always been required for Hall of Fame election,” said Jane Forbes Clark, Chairman of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. “Increasingly, we have had the desire to give the fans a direct role in the election process. Inviting them to vote on which players will be on the final ballot is the ideal solution.”

    ­­====================
    In this survey, I am playing the part of SABR, preparing a ballot of the top 25 candidates remaining who last played from 2008 to 2017. I determined these holistically, using a basket of indicators:
    • Career WAR from BB-ref – Among those on the ballot (not including catchers & relievers) Cliff Lee (43.2) and Nomar Garciaparra (44.3) have the least WAR. Among those missing the ballot, Mike Cameron (46.7) and Javier Vazquez (45.6) have the most WAR.
    • Ranking from the BBF Ranking Game – Among those on this ballot, Frankie Rodriguez (706th) and Jamie Moyer (603rd) were ranked the lowest. Among those missing the ballot, Carlos Zambrano (472nd) and Mike Cameron (509th) were ranked the highest.
    • Career JAWS divided by Average JAWS in HOF at the position – The two numbers are shown on every player’s page at BB-Ref. If your JAWS score is three-quarters of the HOF average at your position, it indicates you’re a viable candidate. Among those on this ballot, Frankie Rodriguez has the lowest score, 0.64. Among those missing the ballot, Mike Cameron has the highest score, 0.68.
    • Hall Rating from the Hall of Stats – The formula for Hall Rating is a manipulation of WAR and WAA where a rating over 100 puts a player in the Hall of Stats (equal in size to the HOF). Among those on this ballot (not including relievers), Carlos Delgado has the lowest score, 76. Among those missing the ballot, J.D. Drew has the highest score, 88.
    • HOF Monitor – Among those on this ballot, Mark Buehrle (52) and Brian Giles (53) have the lowest scores. Among those missing the ballot, Magglio Ordonez (114) and Michael Young (112) have the highest scores.
    • Support on the BBWAA ballot – Among those on this ballot, Brian Giles (0%) and Kenny Rogers (0.2%) had the least support. Among those missing the ballot, Paul Konerko (2.5%) and Tim Lincecum (2.3%) had the most support.
    • A bump for first-year candidates – After Beltran there is a big drop-off to K-Rod, then another big drop-off to Jered Weaver/John Lackey. Therefore, I only see two candidates deserving to make the ballot this year. Despite this, the actual BBWAA screeners will have no trouble finding ten or more “HOF candidates” to put on the ballot.
    You, the fan, finally have a say in the Hall of Fame election process! Here are the top 25 players to choose from, along with their year retired. Which ten players would you like to see on the 2023 BBWAA ballot?
    19
    Bobby Abreu - 2014
    94.74%
    18
    Carlos Beltran - 2017
    100.00%
    19
    Lance Berkman - 2013
    84.21%
    16
    Mark Buehrle - 2015
    57.89%
    11
    Johnny Damon - 2012
    15.79%
    3
    Carlos Delgado - 2009
    47.37%
    9
    Jim Edmonds - 2010
    94.74%
    18
    Nomar Garciaparra - 2009
    26.32%
    5
    Jason Giambi - 2014
    47.37%
    9
    Brian Giles - 2009
    21.05%
    4
    Luis Gonzalez - 2008
    5.26%
    1
    Tim Hudson - 2015
    73.68%
    14
    Torii Hunter - 2015
    31.58%
    6
    Jason Kendall - 2010
    0%
    0
    Cliff Lee - 2014
    10.53%
    2
    Jamie Moyer - 2012
    5.26%
    1
    Joe Nathan - 2016
    21.05%
    4
    Roy Oswalt - 2013
    63.16%
    12
    Jorge Posada - 2011
    26.32%
    5
    Francisco Rodriguez - 2017
    15.79%
    3
    Kenny Rogers - 2008
    0%
    0
    Jimmy Rollins - 2016
    21.05%
    4
    Johan Santana - 2012
    84.21%
    16
    Mark Teixeira - 2016
    10.53%
    2
    Miguel Tejada - 2013
    15.79%
    3

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by Freakshow; 05-19-2022, 02:46 PM.
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    I meant to click Oswalt not Nathan.
    to make it: Abreu, Beltran, Berkman, Buehrle, Delgado, Edmonds, Hudson, Oswalt, Santana. Which only makes 9

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
      I meant to click Oswalt not Nathan.
      to make it: Abreu, Beltran, Berkman, Buehrle, Delgado, Edmonds, Hudson, Oswalt, Santana. Which only makes 9
      So why not just leave Nathan as your #10?

      Comment


      • #4
        If only Dan's imaginations came true.
        "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
        "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
        "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
        "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

        Comment


        • #5
          I voted for the following;

          Bob Abreu
          Carlos Beltran
          Lance Berkman
          Mark Buehrle
          Jim Edmonds
          Jason Giambi
          Brian Giles
          Tim Hudson
          Roy Oswalt
          Johan Santana

          Next two:
          Joe Nathan
          Carlos Delgado

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

            So why not just leave Nathan as your #10?
            I was debating Giambi or Teixeira or Nomar for the last spot.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by PVNICK View Post

              I was debating Giambi or Teixeira or Nomar for the last spot.
              Or perhaps Brian Giles?
              Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

              Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

              Comment


              • #8
                I'd argue there are only 3 or 4 players here that only the biggest of the big Halls of Fame would welcome... Giles, Gonzo, Lee, and Rogers.
                They don’t think it be like it is, but it do.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by pedrosrotatorcuff View Post
                  I'd argue there are only 3 or 4 players here that only the biggest of the big Halls of Fame would welcome... Giles, Gonzo, Lee, and Rogers.
                  Maybe it was a bit of a stretch to go 25 candidates, but casting a big net ensures we get every viable candidate.

                  But it sure does show you how the 5% rule cuts down a lot of good candidates before they ever get off the ground.
                  Last edited by Freakshow; 05-20-2022, 01:24 PM.
                  Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                  Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Freakshow View Post
                    Maybe it was a bit of a stretch to go 25 candidates, but casting a big net ensures we get every viable candidate.

                    But it sure does show you how the 5% rule cuts down a lot of good candidates before they ever get off the ground.
                    Of course. Otherwise we'd be drowning in Jeff Francis- and Mark Loretta-types–or worse.
                    They don’t think it be like it is, but it do.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
                      I meant to click Oswalt not Nathan.
                      to make it: Abreu, Beltran, Berkman, Buehrle, Delgado, Edmonds, Hudson, Oswalt, Santana. Which only makes 9
                      We can do an official tally when the poll closes in November, taking one from Nathan and adding one to Oswalt. So have you decided who gets your 10th vote?
                      Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                      Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Freakshow View Post
                        We can do an official tally when the poll closes in November, taking one from Nathan and adding one to Oswalt. So have you decided who gets your 10th vote?
                        Make it Giambi.Thanks for reminding me

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          In order for me:
                          -------10,000-12,000
                          1. Beltran
                          2. Damon
                          3. K-Rod
                          4. Rollins
                          5. Giambi
                          6. T. Hunter
                          7. Edmonds
                          --------- 9800-9900
                          8. L. Gonzalez
                          9. J. Posada
                          10. Abreu
                          ---------Above 9100-9700
                          11. Teixiera
                          12. Berkman
                          13. Delgado
                          14. Tejada
                          15. Nathan
                          ------- 7400-7900
                          Big Drop
                          16. Giles
                          17. Hudson
                          18. Garciaparra
                          19. Moyer
                          20. K. Rogers
                          21. J. Santana
                          -----6000-6800
                          Another big drop
                          22. Kendall
                          23. Cliff Lee
                          24. Buehrle
                          25. Oswalt

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            After one week, ten voters have weighed in. Here's where we stand:

                            10 C Beltran
                            9 B Abreu
                            9 J Edmonds
                            9 J Santana
                            8 L Berkman
                            8 R Oswalt
                            7 J Giambi
                            7 T Hudson
                            6 M Buehrle
                            4 B Giles
                            4 T Hunter
                            3 C Delgado
                            3 N Garciaparra
                            2 J Damon
                            2 J Posada
                            2 J Rollins
                            2 M Tejada
                            1 L Gonzalez
                            1 C Lee
                            1 J Nathan
                            1 F Rodriguez
                            1 M Teixeira
                            0 J Kendall
                            0 J Moyer
                            0 K Rogers
                            Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                            Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              After five weeks, 13 voters have weighed in. Here's where we stand:

                              13 C Beltran
                              12 B Abreu
                              12 J Edmonds
                              10 J Santana
                              10 L Berkman
                              10 R Oswalt
                              9 T Hudson
                              8 J Giambi
                              8 M Buehrle
                              5 T Hunter
                              5 C Delgado
                              4 N Garciaparra
                              4 B Giles
                              3 J Damon
                              3 J Rollins
                              3 M Tejada
                              2 J Nathan
                              2 J Posada
                              2 F Rodriguez
                              2 M Teixeira
                              1 L Gonzalez
                              1 C Lee
                              1 J Moyer
                              0 J Kendall
                              0 K Rogers
                              Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                              Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                              Comment

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