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For nine years, 2012-2020, I ran an annual survey of BBF members to determine which first-year candidates should make the BBWAA ballot. In making their choices, I asked the voters to cast themselves in the role of the ballot screeners, so we could compare our choices to those of the screeners to see where they blew it.
To achieve the desired results, I had to set a minimum, to vote for at least ten candidates. Every year someone would complain about having to vote for players that they did not see as having any business being on a ballot for the Hall of Fame. Of course, they were right: most of the players who make it past the BBWAA ballot screeners are not legitimate candidates.
Last year I was dealing with my health and never got the survey posted. This year I figured, what’s the point? It hardly matters that they put Nick Swisher (who we gave only 42% support) on the 2021 ballot while ignoring Grady Sizemore (92%). Yes, the screeners blew it, but so what? Both players are far from being legitimate HOF candidates.
Therefore, I decided to start a new annual survey, to determine who really deserves to be on the BBWAA ballot. Cue the mock press release:
(COOPERSTOWN, NY) – The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum’s Board of Directors today announced major revisions to the BBWAA election process. Effective immediately, the ballot will be limited to 20 players. In addition, the BBWAA Screening Committee is eliminated, while the fans will be given a say on who will make the final ballot.
Here is a timeline for the new election process:
The Hall of Fame is also excited to deepen its long-time partnership with SABR, the preeminent organization for scholarly research into all things baseball related. We believe there is no one more suitable for the task of compiling the ballot for the fan vote.
By restricting the ballot to 20 candidates, the Hall of Fame is putting an end to the practice of allowing players on the ballot simply to acknowledge a fine career. Going forward, only the best candidates will be under consideration for election to the Hall of Fame.
“With these updates to the election process, we are upholding our commitment to the very high standard of excellence that has always been required for Hall of Fame election,” said Jane Forbes Clark, Chairman of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. “Increasingly, we have had the desire to give the fans a direct role in the election process. Inviting them to vote on which players will be on the final ballot is the ideal solution.”
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In this survey, I am playing the part of SABR, preparing a ballot of the top 25 candidates remaining who last played from 2008 to 2017. I determined these holistically, using a basket of indicators:
To achieve the desired results, I had to set a minimum, to vote for at least ten candidates. Every year someone would complain about having to vote for players that they did not see as having any business being on a ballot for the Hall of Fame. Of course, they were right: most of the players who make it past the BBWAA ballot screeners are not legitimate candidates.
Last year I was dealing with my health and never got the survey posted. This year I figured, what’s the point? It hardly matters that they put Nick Swisher (who we gave only 42% support) on the 2021 ballot while ignoring Grady Sizemore (92%). Yes, the screeners blew it, but so what? Both players are far from being legitimate HOF candidates.
Therefore, I decided to start a new annual survey, to determine who really deserves to be on the BBWAA ballot. Cue the mock press release:
(COOPERSTOWN, NY) – The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum’s Board of Directors today announced major revisions to the BBWAA election process. Effective immediately, the ballot will be limited to 20 players. In addition, the BBWAA Screening Committee is eliminated, while the fans will be given a say on who will make the final ballot.
Here is a timeline for the new election process:
- Late January - After the results of the annual BBWAA election are announced, the top ten returning players in the voting will have earned a place on the next ballot. For the 2023 election, the ten returning are Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield, Alex Rodriguez, Jeff Kent, Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel, and Andy Pettitte.
- February thru April - The Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) will prepare a 25-player ballot of the top remaining candidates from the ten-year period under consideration. For the 2023 election, they will consider players who made their last appearance in MLB in the years 2008 through 2017.
- Late July thru early October – Fans will register at the HOF website at baseballhall.org, then vote to determine the other ten players to appear on the final ballot from the list of 25 players prepared by SABR. Voting will begin on Hall of Fame weekend and end on the day after the regular season ends.
- November/December – BBWAA voters will cast their ballots for the current election. Rather than be restricted to ten votes, voters will be required to vote Yes or No on all 20 candidates.
The Hall of Fame is also excited to deepen its long-time partnership with SABR, the preeminent organization for scholarly research into all things baseball related. We believe there is no one more suitable for the task of compiling the ballot for the fan vote.
By restricting the ballot to 20 candidates, the Hall of Fame is putting an end to the practice of allowing players on the ballot simply to acknowledge a fine career. Going forward, only the best candidates will be under consideration for election to the Hall of Fame.
“With these updates to the election process, we are upholding our commitment to the very high standard of excellence that has always been required for Hall of Fame election,” said Jane Forbes Clark, Chairman of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. “Increasingly, we have had the desire to give the fans a direct role in the election process. Inviting them to vote on which players will be on the final ballot is the ideal solution.”
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In this survey, I am playing the part of SABR, preparing a ballot of the top 25 candidates remaining who last played from 2008 to 2017. I determined these holistically, using a basket of indicators:
- Career WAR from BB-ref – Among those on the ballot (not including catchers & relievers) Cliff Lee (43.2) and Nomar Garciaparra (44.3) have the least WAR. Among those missing the ballot, Mike Cameron (46.7) and Javier Vazquez (45.6) have the most WAR.
- Ranking from the BBF Ranking Game – Among those on this ballot, Frankie Rodriguez (706th) and Jamie Moyer (603rd) were ranked the lowest. Among those missing the ballot, Carlos Zambrano (472nd) and Mike Cameron (509th) were ranked the highest.
- Career JAWS divided by Average JAWS in HOF at the position – The two numbers are shown on every player’s page at BB-Ref. If your JAWS score is three-quarters of the HOF average at your position, it indicates you’re a viable candidate. Among those on this ballot, Frankie Rodriguez has the lowest score, 0.64. Among those missing the ballot, Mike Cameron has the highest score, 0.68.
- Hall Rating from the Hall of Stats – The formula for Hall Rating is a manipulation of WAR and WAA where a rating over 100 puts a player in the Hall of Stats (equal in size to the HOF). Among those on this ballot (not including relievers), Carlos Delgado has the lowest score, 76. Among those missing the ballot, J.D. Drew has the highest score, 88.
- HOF Monitor – Among those on this ballot, Mark Buehrle (52) and Brian Giles (53) have the lowest scores. Among those missing the ballot, Magglio Ordonez (114) and Michael Young (112) have the highest scores.
- Support on the BBWAA ballot – Among those on this ballot, Brian Giles (0%) and Kenny Rogers (0.2%) had the least support. Among those missing the ballot, Paul Konerko (2.5%) and Tim Lincecum (2.3%) had the most support.
- A bump for first-year candidates – After Beltran there is a big drop-off to K-Rod, then another big drop-off to Jered Weaver/John Lackey. Therefore, I only see two candidates deserving to make the ballot this year. Despite this, the actual BBWAA screeners will have no trouble finding ten or more “HOF candidates” to put on the ballot.
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