Suburbs of Cooperstown Discussion Thread

[leecemark]

--In this thread we will be conducting a draft of the best players eligible for, but not inducted in, the Hall of Fame. We will be drafting 10 teams, each with 25 man rosters, for a total of 250 players. I doubt many people have 250 eligible players who they would actually want to see in Cooperstown so our 250 should include all the viable candidates. Plus some personal favorites who may fall a little below viability.
--Our participants are; Classic, J W, Jim Albright, Freakshow, Double X, Paul Wendt, Chickazoola, jjpm74, BaseballPap and myself. I think we've got a pretty good group with diverse areas of interest who should manage to get the best guys right and avoid any significant oversights.
--The draft will commence at midnight EST on the 21st. We will be using a 12 hour clock. The first 20 picks should consist of your starting lineup a backup catcher, 2 backup infielders, two backup outfielders and one utility/PHer (14 position players) plus 5 starting pitchers and your closer/relief ace (you may substitute a 2nd reliever for your 5th starter if you think the next best releiver is better than any SP candidates when your last pitcher pick comes around. After we have picked these 200 players (those qualifying for the Suburbs of Cooperstown for future projects) we'll pick 5 more player to round out the rosters for sim purposes. These should be mostly - or even all - pitchers.
-- Once we've picked our rosters I'll run at least one DiamondMind sim with the teams, but probably more to get a true measure of who came up with the best team. I may run 10 or 20 to come up with career totals. How much simming I do will depend on the level of interest amoung our participants.
--For players who played mostly after 1894 I'll be using the programming from DMB's Alll Time Greatest players program. For earlier players I'll program them myself using 162 game averages. We will be using only MLB stats for this exercise. I do want to emphasize that the sim is not the ojective of the draft though. It is to identify the best players, within the constraints of building a workable roster. If you think guys who left some of their best years in the 1860s or Negro Leagues or minors or whatever then feel free to draft them. We'll work something out for them - probably a most comparable MLB player's numbers.
--I envision a number of other follow on projects using this pool of players. We should have the best 10 candidates at each position in our starting lineups so it wil be easy to put up some threads about the best at each. We will also have 2 teams of the least deserving Hallof Famers to compete with our best out of Cooperstown teams. I think that is an excellent idea. I'd bet against the worst HoF teams winning many pennants.

Round One
1) Jim Albright
2) JJPM74
3) J W
4) Double X
5) Chickalooza
6) Leecemark
7) Paul Wendt
8) Freakshow
9) Classic
10) Baseball PAP
Round Two
11) Baseball PAP
12) Classic
13) Freakshow
14) Paul wendt
15) Leecemark
16) Chickalooza
17) Double X
18) J W
19) JJPM74
20) Jim Albright
Round 3
21) Jim Albright
22) JJPM74
23) J W
24) Double X
25) Chickalooza
26) Leecemark
27) Paul Wendt
28) Freakshow
29) Classic
30) Baseball PAP

[leecemark]

Sample Roster

Lineup
C:
1B:
2B:
3B:
SS:
LF:
CF:
Rf:
Rotation
SP1:
SP2:
SP3:
SP4:
SP5:
Bench
C:
IF:
IF:
OF:
OF:
PH/Utl:
Bullpen
CL:
RHSU:
LHSU:
LM:
MU:
SS:
--You will not have to use relievers only for the relief roles. Starters can fill in and do fine in the programing. For purposes of the sim there are more relievers who will excell in short outings than there are excluded starters though. You also don't have to follow this template exactly. You may prefer more position players and fewer pitchers or vice versa.

[leecemark]

--We need to round up one more participant. Also one of our current participants will away from home with limited internet access until the 21st. We'll shoot for that as the kickoff of the draft. Meanwhile we can discuss anything that may need to be ironed out.
--I'd prefer not to use the DH to allow the bench to play a bigger role. If the majority feels otherwise that can change though. There will be no discounting of stats based on league quality or timelining. The only thing the program does is adjust for league context. I'll be doing the same thing with any players left out of the program. I'll use the BBR nuetralize stats feauture and the 162 game average from that.
--There is no adjustment for longevity either, although the decline or startup years are not factored in for long career players (DMB uses their prime years). I would like to make a minor tweek for really short career player for our sim(s). Players below a minimum PT threshold would be rated injury prone if that is agreeable to the majority.
--I'm thinking that would apply to SP below 2,000 IP (not an issue if they are used in relief) and position players below 5,000 PA. If that seems too low then maybe 2500/7500. Suggestions as to how (or if) to implement this and the playing time threshold are welcome.
--Any other issues you may wish to address before we get started are also open for discussion.

[DoubleX]

I'm a little confused as to what the simulation will be based on. It's based on peak? How will peak be defined? Will we end up with a system in which Babe Herman will be on the same level as Dwight Evans? I think most of us would agree that in terms of being qualified or the Hall, Evans is the better player and that has a lot to do with his longevity. But if we remove longevity from the equation and focus on peak, then Herman would arguably be ahead of Evans, and that would seem to skew the objective of this project, which is to identify the best player based on them being outside the Hall. Evans deserves to be in the Hall before Herman, but removing longevity might not reflect that and could result in Herman being the better suited player in the league.

[jjpm74]

Rather than specify RF, CF, LF on the rosters, I'd rather outfielders be kept to OF in general as many outfielders routinely switch fields. I'd also rather players careers be looked at as a whole rather than strictly peak for reasons already alluded to by DoubleX. I'm against the idea of having DHs on the rosters.

[leecemark]

--One other thing we can work out while we're waiting for the draft to get underway are the rosters to the "worst hall of Fame teams". Looking at this I think they may end up with stronger pitching than some (most?) of the non-Hall of Fame teams. You can't really build too staffs without including some solid Hall of Famers. I guess what we'll do is start the worst 10, as well as the worst 2 at each position with better mistakes (or legit, but lower tier HoFers) coming off the bench or working out of the bullpen.
--This is the pool of Hal of Famers left out of either the HalL of Merit or BBF Hall of Fame (both in most cases);
C: Ferrell, Schalk, Lombardi and Bresnahan
1B: Kelly, Bottomley, Cepeda, Chance, Perez and Beckley
2B: Evers, Lazzeri, Mazeroski, Schoendeniest
3B: Kell, Lindstrom, Traynor
Ss: Aparicio, Bancrodt, Jackson, Maranville, Rizzuto, Tinker
LF: Brock, Manush, Hafey
CF: Combs, Duffy, Puckett, Waner, Wilson
RF: McCarthy, Hooper, Rice, Youngs, Cuyler, Klein
SP: Bender, Chesbro, Dean, Gomez, Grimes, Haines, Hoyt, Hunter, Joss, Marquard, Pennock, Welch, Willis
RP: Sutter

--My suggested starters in bold.

[leecemark]

I'm a little confused as to what the simulation will be based on. It's based on peak? How will peak be defined? Will we end up with a system in which Babe Herman will be on the same level as Dwight Evans? I think most of us would agree that in terms of being qualified or the Hall, Evans is the better player and that has a lot to do with his longevity. But if we remove longevity from the equation and focus on peak, then Herman would arguably be ahead of Evans, and that would seem to skew the objective of this project, which is to identify the best player based on them being outside the Hall. Evans deserves to be in the Hall before Herman, but removing longevity might not reflect that and could result in Herman being the better suited player in the league.

--It is prime not peak. If I remember correctly prime was however many consecutive seasons it took a player to get 5,000 PA (the best such seasons). For a shorter career player their lesser season would end up being included to get there, while for a longer career player they would be excluded. The alternative would be using 162 game averages for everyone, which would probably hurt the long career guys more. This still may result in some high peak guys being a little overrated by participants drafting with the sim in mind rather than picking the guys they actually rated the highest. I don;t know any way around that, but suggestions are welcome.
--As for disregarding differences between RF/LF you can do that. The defensive penalty for such a shift is small in this program. If a player actually did switch back and forth to even a modest degree he will be rated at both anyway.

[DoubleX]

--It is prime not peak. If I remember correctly prime was however many consecutive seasons it took a player to get 5,000 PA (the best such seasons). For a shorter career player their lesser season would end up being included to get there, while for a longer career player they would be excluded. The alternative would be using 162 game averages for everyone, which would probably hurt the long career guys more. This still may result in some high peak guys being a little overrated by participants drafting with the sim in mind rather than picking the guys they actually rated the highest. I don;t know any way around that, but suggestions are welcome.

Gotcha, though I do think this could slightly alter strategy with short career/high peak guys like Gavvy Cravath, Charlie Keller, Babe Herman, Al Rosen, Jack Fournier, Ken Williams, Dolph Camilli, and others, jumping ahead in the pecking order.

[Freakshow]

, but suggestions are welcome.

You need to decide what you're trying to accomplish here. You're aiming for one of these two objectives:

1) We aim to identify the best players that should be elected to Cooperstown. We're using HOF criteria that includes consideration of character, ability, managing and other non-playing contributions .

2) We're aiming to assemble the best teams we can in a competition to win a DiamondMind simulation. We're using DM criteria that emphasizes whatever it takes to win in that particular simulation.

Clearly, these two objectives have irreconcilable differences; we can't do both at once. So, which is it?

My interest is #1. If you later on run simulations based on our "teams" that's fine. But make it clear it's for amusement only, and to learn about how DM criteria defining value differs from Cooperstown's definition of value. IOW, it's not a competition.

[jjpm74]

Just for clarification, are we drafting from all retired players or are players who's names presently appear on the BBWAA ballot and players not yet eligible for Cooperstown excluded? Are we excluding those who were banned from baseball (Rose, J. Jackson, et. al)?

[leecemark]

You need to decide what you're trying to accomplish here. You're aiming for one of these two objectives:

1) We aim to identify the best players that should be elected to Cooperstown. We're using HOF criteria that includes consideration of character, ability, managing and other non-playing contributions .

2) We're aiming to assemble the best teams we can in a competition to win a DiamondMind simulation. We're using DM criteria that emphasizes whatever it takes to win in that particular simulation.

Clearly, these two objectives have irreconcilable differences; we can't do both at once. So, which is it?



My interest is #1. If you later on run simulations based on our "teams" that's fine. But make it clear it's for amusement only, and to learn about how DM criteria defining value differs from Cooperstown's definition of value. IOW, it's not a competition.

--My intention is that the draft identify the best 200 players ouside Cooperstown. The simulation is just intended to be a byproduct of the draft. It is one of several things I'd like to do with this pool of players once we are done, but building the best sim teams should not be the primary objective.
--I do want workable rosters though. If that means you are picking somebody you think is the 220th best instead of 195th best towards the end I think most of us can live with that. The difference in the qualifications of those players will be pretty small anyway.

[leecemark]

Just for clarification, are we drafting from all retired players or are players who's names presently appear on the BBWAA ballot and players not yet eligible for Cooperstown excluded? Are we excluding those who were banned from baseball (Rose, J. Jackson, et. al)?

--Only players currently eligible for the Hall of Fame will be eligible for this draft. Active players, players not yet retired for 5 years and banned players are not eligible.

[jjpm74]

--Only players currently eligible for the Hall of Fame will be eligible for this draft. Active players, players not yet retired for 5 years and banned players are not eligible.

Then Jim Rice, Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, Andre Dawson, Lee Smith, Bert Blyleven, Don Mattingly, Tommy John, Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy, Harold Baines, Dave Parker and Jack Morris are eligible for this draft? That definitely changes some of my choices if true. I was under the impression we were focusing on guys overlooked by the BBWAA and guys who played before the HOF existed. It's pretty likely that Jim Rice will be elected next year and I'd be surprised if Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven get passed over by the BBWAA for much longer.

[Freakshow]

My recommendation here is to allow draft eligibility for all the 2009 BBWAA candidates except Ricky Henderson. No one disputes he belongs in the Hall; the only thing that could keep him out is a comeback or an 11th hour steroid accusation.

That would allow us to consider rankings for Raines, Rice, Dawson, Blyleven, etc, and new candidates Grace, Cone, Orosco, etc.

[Freakshow]

--My intention is that the draft identify the best 200 players ouside Cooperstown. The simulation is just intended to be a byproduct of the draft. It is one of several things I'd like to do with this pool of players once we are done, but building the best sim teams should not be the primary objective.

Then all this talk of peaks, primes and what works in DM is irrelevant to our task. You should squelch it.