500 hr's no hof?

[fenrir]

leaving the alleged or admitted juicers out of the question (bonds, sosa, mcgwire, palmerio, sheffield), is it possible that someone like thome could never make the hall of fame, even though he has 500 hr's? has this era diluted hr totals that much, that 500 homeruns doesnt mean much anymore?

[jalbright]

Sure, unless the only reason Fred McGriff is out is he had 7 HR too few.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

leaving the alleged or admitted juicers out of the question (bonds, sosa, mcgwire, palmerio, sheffield), is it possible that someone like thome could never make the hall of fame, even though he has 500 hr's? has this era diluted hr totals that much, that 500 homeruns doesnt mean much anymore?

No, because Thome will be a lot closer to 600 HRs than to 500 HRs plus Thome would have lots of RBIs and good descent BA and a very good OBP. Right now Thome has a career .409 OBP, .565 slugging percentage, and a 150 OPS+. If Thome reaches say 580-600 HRs there is no way he's wouldn't get in. I can envision a player like Adam Dunn barely clearing 500 HRs with a career .240 BA. Such a player will have trouble getting inducted into the HoF.

[fenrir]

No, because Thome will be a lot closer to 600 HRs than to 500 HRs plus Thome would have lots of RBIs and good descent BA and a very good OBP. Right now Thome has a career .409 OBP, .565 slugging percentage, and a 150 OPS+. If Thome reaches say 580-600 HRs there is no way he's wouldn't get in. I can envision a player like Adam Dunn barely clearing 500 HRs with a career .240 BA. Such a player will have trouble getting inducted into the HoF.

what about gonzalez? let's say if he comes back and manages to reach 500 hr's, but his rates drop, but he collects more rbi's, does he have a shot?

[digglahhh]

I guess he has a shot if he gets to 500, but I'd have to put the likelihood of him reaching 500 up there with the Knicks winning a championship.

I think 500 will give anybody a decent shot, but I can certainly see somebody doing it and not getting in.

Thome would be the wrong guy for that to start with though, he has been a huge offensive force in the game for a long time. He should be an easy selection, though he probably won't be.

A likely 500 homer guy who I think may have some difficulty is Carlos Delgado.

[fenrir]

I guess he has a shot if he gets to 500, but I'd have to put the likelihood of him reaching 500 up there with the Knicks winning a championship.

I think 500 will give anybody a decent shot, but I can certainly see somebody doing it and not getting in.

Thome would be the wrong guy for that to start with though, he has been a huge offensive force in the game for a long time. He should be an easy selection, though he probably won't be.

A likely 500 homer guy who I think may have some difficulty is Carlos Delgado.

yeah i forgot about big carlos. it's amazing how many great slugging firstbasemen we have seen in this era.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

A likely 500 homer guy who I think may have some difficulty is Carlos Delgado.

Delgado is an interesting case. He's at .282/386/.549, 139 OPS+ right now. So-so HoF numbers for his era. The stats that will help Delgado are his career counting stats. As of now he has:

431 HRs, 444 doubles, 1374 RBI, 1130 R, 1848 hits.

Let's say he plays until age 40 (he'll be 36 in late June). He could have 550 HRs, 550 doubles, 1,700 RBI, 1,500 R, and 2,400 hits. Is that a HoFer? He had a poor '07 season.

[digglahhh]

Delgado is an interesting case. He's at .282/386/.549, 139 OPS+ right now. So-so HoF numbers for his era. The stats that will help Delgado are his career counting stats. As of now he has:

431 HRs, 444 doubles, 1374 RBI, 1130 R, 1848 hits.

Let's say he plays until age 40 (he'll be 36 in late June). He could have 550 HRs, 550 doubles, 1,700 RBI, 1,500 R, and 2,400 hits. Is that a HoFer? He had a poor '07 season.

Those numbers would make him a HOFer, I'd say.

His performance last year rings the alarm, because in light of that, he doesn't have all that much room for error. If he bounces back, it's no big deal. If last year was the beginning of his decline, it's gonna get close. I figured, two more prime level years after '06 would have set him up to finish in good HOF position.

It would be good for the impression he leaves if he's able to hit reach 500 as a relatively productive regular, as opposed to hanging on just for the number.

If he has a few more decent years, he'll start to climb into impressive company in some counting stats. A healthy '08 should get him into the top 50 in RBI. He can climb into good company in other categories too, HR (obviously), 2B, XBH, BB.

He could also be staring down the barrel of 2,000 Ks in a couple of years.

I wonder what will happen to him after this year, as he become a FA. He may finish his career as a DH.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

His performance last year rings the alarm, because in light of that, he doesn't have all that much room for error. If he bounces back, it's no big deal. If last year was the beginning of his decline, it's gonna get close. I figured, two more prime level years after '06 would have set him up to finish in good HOF position.

The '08 season is a key season for Delgado.

It would be good for the impression he leaves if he's able to hit reach 500 as a relatively productive regular, as opposed to hanging on just for the number.

He should get #500 in '09 at age 37 or 38.

He could also be staring down the barrel of 2,000 Ks in a couple of years.

I think we are going to see several modern sluggers enter the 2,000 K plateau in the future. In fact A-Rod has a good chance to unseat Reggie as the all-time K leader if you can believe it. A-Rod is only 32 years old and already has 1,524 Ks which is #39 all-time already. With 91 Ks in '08 he moves all the way up to #21 all-time. By the end of the '09 season A-Rod will break into the top 10 all-time. Using a rate of 130 Ks per season A-Rod will surpass Reggie at age 40-41.

I wonder what will happen to him after this year, as he become a FA. He may finish his career as a DH.

I hear Billy Beane already calling Carlos!

[Fuzzy Bear]

Delgado dropped off VERY badly last year. His OWP dropped to .519; at that level, he's just another player at 1B. The drop occurred not just because his drop in power, but his drop in drawing walks as well.

While Delgado is getting older, his decline in 2007 may be, in part, just an off year. He's not the player he was a few years back, but he may still be able to post a season in the mid-.600s in OWP. Delgado, however, declined in walks as well as BA and HRs. This could be a sign that he's lost his ability to put the bat on the ball, and pitchers are unafraid to throw him strikes.

If Delgado is at the point where pitchers are unafraid to throw him strikes he could decline real fast. I guess we'll see.

As to the topic of the thread: I don't think that 500 HRs means nothing, that's just not true. I think what has happened is that sluggers who are in the Delgado mold are not going to make the HOF short of 500 HRs. The standard used to be 400 HRs; a slugger with 400 HRs would get a look. Now it's 500, and Fred McGriff's falling short hurts him badly.

[White Knight]

Sure, unless the only reason Fred McGriff is out is he had 7 HR too few.

Well, the only reason Tommy John didn't make it is because he had only 288 wins. Close means nothing in baseball, you have to go over the top. Would McGwire had been kept out if he held on one more year and retired with 600? Probably, but would he have only gotten 23% of the vote? Highly doubtful. More like 50% plus.

[DoubleX]

Well, the only reason Tommy John didn't make it is because he had only 288 wins. Close means nothing in baseball, you have to go over the top. Would McGwire had been kept out if he held on one more year and retired with 600? Probably, but would he have only gotten 23% of the vote? Highly doubtful. More like 50% plus.

If Tommy John got to 300 wins, that would have been the only reason why he did make the Hall. John's not in the Hall because he wasn't a great pitcher - he was a pretty good pitcher for a very long time. The fact that he did not make it to 300 wins means people didn't have to overlook the fact that he wasn't particularly great in order to put him in for the milestone. Now with someone like Bert Blyleven, it could be said that he's not in because he doesn't have 300 wins.

[White Knight]

If Tommy John got to 300 wins, that would have been the only reason why he did make the Hall. John's not in the Hall because he wasn't a great pitcher - he was a pretty good pitcher for a very long time. The fact that he did not make it to 300 wins means people didn't have to overlook the fact that he wasn't particularly great in order to put him in for the milestone. Now with someone like Bert Blyleven, it could be said that he's not in because he doesn't have 300 wins.

I agree that he was never great, but it's nearly certain that he would have made the Hall if he had 300 wins. Likewise, if Fred McGriff had held out for 500, he too would have likely made it. But that was then. In these days, steroids aside, it may be possible to retire with 500 and still not make it.

Now, counting steroids, can a player with 600+ (Sosa, who there's no evidence against but everyone thinks he juiced) be left out? What about a player with 750+ HR's (Bonds, who there is actual evidence against)?

[DoubleX]

I agree that he was never great, but it's nearly certain that he would have made the Hall if he had 300 wins. Likewise, if Fred McGriff had held out for 500, he too would have likely made it. But that was then. In these days, steroids aside, it may be possible to retire with 500 and still not make it.

Now, counting steroids, can a player with 600+ (Sosa, who there's no evidence against but everyone thinks he juiced) be left out? What about a player with 750+ HR's (Bonds, who there is actual evidence against)?

We don't know what's going to happen to McGriff. I think he might make it eventually, but he'll spend a number of years on the ballot first. I think he might also benefit from being perceived as one of the "clean" players, and I think people will put more stock into his 493 homeruns than they will with McGwire and Sosa's totals, for example. But a lot can change between now and then.

[White Knight]

We don't know what's going to happen to McGriff. I think he might make it eventually, but he'll spend a number of years on the ballot first. I think he might also benefit from being perceived as one of the "clean" players, and I think people will put more stock into his 493 homeruns than they will with McGwire and Sosa's totals, for example. But a lot can change between now and then.

Well, I think we can all agree that Fred won't make the 1st ballet. But if he had held out to 500, then what? I believe he would make it on the 1st then.

Now, let's suppose Sosa can't find a team to sign him this year, and retires. For the next five years, no one accuses him of anything, and his name isn't mentioned in any future Mitchel Report type. Then what? Can you hold him back with no hard (or even soft) evidence? With 600 HR's?