Howard, Utley, or Rollins?

[willshad]

All 3 are about the same age, on the same team. My question is which guy has the best shot at the hall of fame?


Chase Utley: Already has one of the best second baseman peaks ever, and looked headed for an MVP award last season before getting hurt. Got off to kind of a late start, so likely wont have great career counting numbers. Comparable to jeff Kent (a likely hall of famer), but way ahead of where
Kent was at the same age.

Ryan Howard: Also got off to a late start, but has already won an MVP and has amazing power. Even so, he showed serious regression last season and went from being Jimmie Foxx to being Adam Dunn. 105 homers the last 2 seasons. A year younger than both Rollins and Utley.

Jimmy Rollins: Started young and is very durable, so already has over 1300 hits, and an MVP at short. Overrated offensively, but is a runs, hits, and steals machine. Will likely end up with great career stats, especially for a shortstop..but OPS+ is under league average.

[hellborn]

I like this poll a lot! Nice idea, wilshad.

I see Howard as being the new Cecil Fielder...huge guy, tons of power, late start, limited mobility, little defensive value. Cecil had a number of good years and I expect Ryan will, also, but neither will ever be considered a serious HOF candidate. I just don't see a guy of Ryan's size being able to be a ML starter into his late 30s, just like we knew Cecil wouldn't be an elite player for a long time.

Utley may be the best player of the bunch, but will have to play for a long time to get his counting numbers up. Sandberg was able to make it into the HOF despite his unfortunate first retirement, due to his great start...Utley will have to last extra long to get past his late start. I give him a shot, but the deck is stacked against him.

Rollins is about the same age as Utley, but has twice as many career hits. He's not an extraordinarily efficient offensive player, but he has a lot of strengths that stand out. People will forget that his defense wasn't among the best in the league. He gets attention, is popular with the fans and media, and has a great start on his counting stats...he seems like the kind of guy who is always going to be in great shape and focused, so I'll say he'll play well for many years and make the HOF.

[KCGHOST]

The HoF can be a funny place at times to get into. I like Utley as the best player here, but don't think he has much chance to get into the HoF. His late start will deprive him of the counting numbers needed to bolster his case.

You have to love Howard's power, but how long will it last? He is loved by the MVP voters which helps. If his stud power lasts through his age 35 season he will have a reasonable shot.

Rollins has been a lat bloomer. His career OPS+ is 98 which should be all you need to know, but he did get a real early start and is loved by the media. He's already got 1300 hits can could challenge the 3K hit mark by his late 30's. Being loved by the media and 3K hits is a mortal lock.

[Freakshow]

The infamous Hall of Fame Monitor has them neck-and-neck:

Rollins....55
Utley.....49
Howard..45

[Chadwick]

I don't see any of these three being Hall worthy. Utley is the best player amongst them. Rollins has the best chance of fashioning a career the voters will notice.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I peg Utley as the guy to to age the best over Rollins and Howard. He did get kind of a late start but it's not like he's 33 years old already. The '08 season will be his age 29 season. If his '07 performance is real and if he can substain that level say until age 35 then that would be eight elite seasons with his decline still in front of him. He has a career 126 OPS+ but in his three full seasons ('05-'07) it's at 133. He could hit 350+ HR and that will at least put him in any HoF discussion.

[Freakshow]

I don't see any of these three being Hall worthy. Utley is the best player amongst them. Rollins has the best chance of fashioning a career the voters will notice.

FWIW, Bill James agrees with you:

50% Rollins
25% Howard
15% Utley

[Honus Wagner Rules]

FWIW, Bill James agrees with you:

50% Rollins
25% Howard
15% Utley

That doesn't really mean much. What was Jeff Kent's percentage at age 29? I'm pretty sure it was a lot lower than 15%.

[hellborn]

That doesn't really mean much. What was Jeff Kent's percentage at age 29? I'm pretty sure it was a lot lower than 15%.

I guess this means Kent is in the HOF?

[Chadwick]

FWIW, Bill James agrees with you:

50% Rollins
25% Howard
15% Utley

Not surprised. Bill's been stealing my stuff for years now.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Utley is unpredictable. He will have to stay at 2B to make the HOF. He's fashioning a late-arriving Ryne Sandberg-ish career, but he's not the glove Sandberg is. If he is ever shifted to the OF or 1B, the truncating of his career will nix his HOF chances.

Howard is, in fact, the best player of the bunch. He has a .743 OWP over 3 years, and while he was regarded as a disappointment last year, his OWP was still .706. Howard, like Utley, is a late arrival, but he's a truly dominant slugger, and should get more consideration than he does.

Rollins has had the longer career, has the MVP (a questionable, but defensible pick), and is showing good longevity. If he breaks the career record for hits by a shortstop, he may well make the HOF without getting to 3K hits. If he wins more Gold Gloves, ditto. He's in the lead right now.

Until this year I thought little of Rollins, but he's got 1,307 hits going into his age 29 season. That's impressive; it shows he got an early start and stayed in the lineup. It's VERY impressive for a shortstop (and, yes, I know Rollins didn't major in plate discipline). If he breaks the career record for hits by a SS (held now by Aparicio, threatened by Vizquel) he'll be a strong contender, even if he isn't as good as some think he is.

[leecemark]

--Do you really think most hits by a SS is a mark that gets you into the Hall? I had no idea Aparicio held it or that Vizquel was close. Getting it won't get Vizquel there for me, nor would it for Rollins.

[Fuzzy Bear]

--Do you really think most hits by a SS is a mark that gets you into the Hall? I had no idea Aparicio held it or that Vizquel was close. Getting it won't get Vizquel there for me, nor would it for Rollins.

I don't know, but it will be brought up.

The guy who holds the record (Aparicio) is in the HOF for his glove. If Omar Vizquel gets in the HOF, it will be due to his glove, and not the hit record (which he is only 80 hits away from obtaining).

Rollins' credentials, unlike the other two, will be based on his offense. He may win some more GG awards, but those will support his offensive credentials, and not vice versa.

Rollins isn't as good as people think he is, but if he keeps up what he's been doing for another 5 years, he'll finish his career with 250-300 HRs. I can't see the HOF turning away Rollins if he gets to 300 career HRs AND gets around 2,700 hits as a SS. Even if he doesn't make it to 300, if he gets to 250 HRs and 2,700 hits, he's got a good shot.

[leecemark]

--I'm not saying he won't make it. I'd say he has a reasonable chance. If he can hold down a starting job into his late-30s even a good chance. I just don't think that having the record for most hts by a SS is going to be a big factor in whether he makes it or nor (excepting that it would mean he did put together a long career).

[Cowtipper]

Let's play the projections game!

Ryan Howard:

1538 games
5591 at-bats
991 runs
1615 hits
266 doubles
7 triples
517 home runs
1413 RBI
7 stolen bases
1056 base on balls
1929 strikeouts
.289 average

Chase Utley:

1583 games
6156 at-bats
1155 runs
1914 hits
455 doubles
52 triples
281 home runs
1109 RBI
131 stolen bases
611 base on balls
1139 strikeouts
.311 average

Jimmy Rollins:

2234 games
9617 at-bats
1686 runs
2723 hits
551 doubles
186 triples
291 home runs
1071 RBI
523 stolen bases
727 base on balls
1207 strikeouts
.283 average

These were all done using Bill James' favorite toy.

Projections like these should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Any one of these guys could have a career threatening injury this year and get no where near the numbers projected.

Right now, I'd say Jimmy Rollins has the best shot at the Hall of Fame. He's already proven he can do well in the majors for a considerable amount of time, not just two or three years like Ryan Howard or Chase Utley. A lot of guys did great for two or three years and never really did anything Hall of Fame worthy in the end...like Edgardo Alfonzo or Andy Van Slyke, for example.

If all three players reach the statistics projected of them, I'd put Rollins in first, then Utley, then Howard. Howard hits for a lot of power, whereas Rollins and Utley can hit for some power and steal some bases. Plus they both have a better eye than Howard.