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The Ultimate Quest for Candidates: Round 1 – The 1970’s (part 1)

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  • The Ultimate Quest for Candidates: Round 1 – The 1970’s (part 1)

    Welcome to the Ultimate Quest for Candidates! This thread will have the tenth poll in the first round, choosing the best candidates for the Hall of Fame from the MLB stars of the early 1970’s. You will be asked to vote for your top FIVE (5) players (out of 15); another thread with a companion poll will be posted for the stars of the late 1970's, where you will be asked to vote for your top SIX (6) players (out of 18). This decade has more candidates (33) than earlier decades because of expansion, as well as their recent vintage. None of these candidates were eligible for the HOF Veterans Committee before it was reformed in 2001; there’s still a lot of work to do. The polls will close five weeks after they open.

    I’m asking voters not to peek at the results of the voting until after they’ve cast their ballot. I would hope that voters are capable of independently assessing the candidates without worrying about whom the consensus is favoring.

    The threads in this project will always be posted a few days before the poll is added. This is done in order to encourage research and discussion of the candidates. I believe (paraphrasing Socrates) that the unexamined ballot is not worth casting. This also gives you a little time to make the case for a candidate not listed who you think deserves to be on the ballot (although you should sign up as a consultant if you really want to be involved in this aspect of the project).

    If someone wants to open a separate thread to focus on one of these candidates, go for it; we already see that a lot on this forum. All of these players are worthy of discussion, because the worst candidates here are on a par with the worst players in the Hall.

    I expect that everyone is familiar with Baseball-Reference.com and Baseballprospectus.com. These are essential sites for researching a player’s statistical record. I’ve also inserted links to each player’s bio at the SABR Bioproject or Wikipedia.

    We will be judging players by the same criteria that the Hall of Fame uses:

    “voting shall be based upon the individual's record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the game.”

    So everything counts, their lifetime achievements on and off the field, along with their character and other intangibles.

    Below are the players we think are the top 40 candidates whose careers centered in the 1970’s. We will need to decide which seven of these to drop for the polls. Basic data are shown for each:
    Code:
    Pos	BJ	Player Name	 Win Shares	 WARP3	            Car WS Adj	 Other
    7/m	#54	Dusty	Baker	(253: 24-24-23)	(73.4: 8.4-7.9-6.6)	+8	Mgr 14 yrs/1,162 wins,.527
    5	#11	Sal	Bando	(285: 36-31-29)	(83.5: 9.2-9.1-8.5)	+2	
    7/d	#40	Don	Baylor	(268: 29-24-23)	(74.6: 8.9-7.3-6.0)	+6	Mgr 8.5 yrs/627 wins,.476
    9	#15	Bobby	Bonds	(305: 32-32-31)	(95.9: 10.8-10.0-9.9)	+3	
    6	#25	Bert Campaneris	(282: 29-26-22)	(102.4: 11.1-10.4-9.1)	+2	
    8	#21	Cesar	Cedeno	(303: 35-30-30)	(87.6: 11.2-10.1-8.3)	+7	
    5	#16	Ron	Cey	(287: 27-27-25)	(101.3: 10.8-10.0-9.7)	+7	
    6	#26	Dave Concepcion	(278: 29-25-25)	(107.6: 10.4-10.4-9.7)	+9	
    5/3	#10	Darrell	Evans	(371: 31-28-28)	(122.8: 12.5-10.8-9.0)	+8	
    7	#34	George	Foster	(279: 34-32-30)	(88.5: 12.0-9.3-9.0)	+10	
    3	#31	Steve	Garvey	(286: 27-26-25)	(80.4: 8.9-8.7-7.9)	+7	
    4	#12	Bobby	Grich	(339: 32-31-30)	(122.1: 12.3-11.4-9.9)	+10	
    3/m	#45	Mike	Hargrove(220: 25-25-24)	(73.1: 9.3-7.9-7.9)	+8	Mgr 15 yrs/1,188 wins,.503
    5/6	#32	Toby	Harrah	(297: 32-28-27)	(89.7: 10.8-9.0-8.6)	+10	
    4/m	#46	Davey	Johnson	(172: 23-23-21)	(57.6: 7.9-7.5-7.4)	+1	Mgr 13 yrs/1,148 wins,.564
    7	#35	Greg	Luzinski(255: 30-28-27)	(62.6: 7.6-7.3-6.8)	+8	
    8	#17	Fred	Lynn	(284: 34-33-27)	(84.6: 10.9-9.7-7.3)	+4	
    2	#14	Thurman	Munson	(207: 26-25-24)	(72.7: 9.6-9.6-8.0)	+1	
    9/8	#17	Bobby	Murcer	(281: 38-38-27)	(65.6: 10.4-8.7-7.0)	+4	broadcaster
    5	#13	Graig	Nettles	(327: 28-27-26)	(107.9: 11.2-10.8-8.7)	+6	
    8/3	#31	Al	Oliver	(313: 26-26-24)	(86.0: 8.4-7.8-7.0)	+8	
    8	#22	Amos	Otis	(293: 29-29-27)	(77.5: 9.0-8.3-7.8)	+7	
    9	#14	Dave	Parker	(331: 37-33-31)	(86.3: 10.4-9.1-8.5)	+4	
    2	#18	Darrell	Porter	(227: 31-23-19)	(77.0: 11.2-7.8-7.6)	+5	
    2	#10	Ted	Simmons	(321: 30-28-28)	(96.3: 9.0-8.4-8.3)	+6	
    9	#18	Ken   Singleton	(310: 36-33-32)	(87.8: 10.4-9.8-8.8)	+8	
    9/8	#20	Reggie	Smith	(326: 29-29-27)	(89.8: 9.4-9.1-7.2)	+1	
    9	#24	Rusty	Staub	(361: 32-30-28)	(100.2: 10.5-9.2-7.4)	+3	
    2/3	#23	Gene	Tenace	(236: 32-26-25)	(71.8: 10.3-8.4-8.1)	+5	
    7	#25	Roy	White	(264: 34-29-29)	(88.1: 10.3-10.0-9.8)	+1	
    1	#86	Vida	Blue	(206: 30-25-22)	(78.3: 11.4-9.8-8.0)	+4	
    1	#39	Bert	Blyleven(346: 29-23-23)	(146.7: 13.2-10.5-10.4)	+7	
    1	#63	Tommy	John	(295: 23-19-19)	(113.1: 8.7-7.7-7.1)	+6	
    1	---	Jerry	Koosman	(244: 25-23-23)	(92.3: 9.9-8.4-7.5)	+4	
    1	#72	Mickey	Lolich	(225: 29-27-20)	(82.5: 10.2-9.0-7.7)	+1	
    1	---	Sparky	Lyle	(164: 20-19-16)	(60.5: 7.4-6.5-5.8)	+3	
    1	---	Mike	Marshall(148: 23-23-23)	(64.3: 11.0-9.7-9.4)	+2	
    1	#81	Rick	Reuschel(244: 26-20-20)	(102.4: 12.1-9.3-7.9)	+4	
    1	#52	Luis	Tiant	(258: 29-28-22)	(100.4: 10.6-10.6-8.7)	+2	
    1	---	Wilbur	Wood	(192: 33-31-23)	(80.7: 14.7-11.8-10.1)	+2
    Pos – primary position(s)
    BJ – rank at his position in the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001)
    Win Shares – shown are career total and best 3 years
    WARP3 – from Baseball Prospectus; shown are career total and best 3 years (numbers in bold are increased for extra credit)
    Other – Baker, Hargrove and Johnson were successful managers; Baylor not so much. Piniella I consider his primary HOF case to be as a manager and have not included him in this list.
    I am thinking now that Fred Lynn should be placed in the 1980's. His WARP and win shares values both center in 1980, PA in 1982. However, his two monster years are in the 70's; 3 of his top 5 WARP3 and 4 of his top 5 WS are in the 70's. Opinions?

    Some other things to be aware of:
    1) Bill James’ rankings emphasize players’ peak years; this results in long steady careers being rated lower than what may seem right.
    2) Win shares in strike seasons 1972 and 1981 are increased to adjust them to a 162-game season. In addition, 1981 has been gently normalized for surrounding seasons.
    3) You are free to credit players with minor league or foreign league play. Smith and Johnson both had play in Japan.
    90
    Sal Bando
    10.00%
    9
    Bobby Bonds
    16.67%
    15
    Bert Campaneris
    3.33%
    3
    Tommy John
    14.44%
    13
    Jerry Koosman
    0.00%
    0
    Mickey Lolich
    0.00%
    0
    Sparky Lyle
    7.78%
    7
    Thurman Munson
    12.22%
    11
    Bobby Murcer
    1.11%
    1
    Amos Otis
    1.11%
    1
    Reggie Smith
    12.22%
    11
    Rusty Staub
    6.67%
    6
    Luis Tiant
    13.33%
    12
    Roy White
    0.00%
    0
    Wilbur Wood
    1.11%
    1

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by Freakshow; 03-13-2008, 10:34 AM. Reason: add Lyle
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    --Lynn's claim to greatness is based on his play in the 70s (well 82 was a HoF caliber season too). I'd put him with the late 70s players.

    Comment


    • #3
      cut six? Blue, Koosman, and Wood make a good start. If the sabrmetricians are right about Koosman and Lolich, that leaves ML hanging by his superb Octobers. All four, plus Sparky Lyle at least, were bigger names than several of the regulars, perhaps foremost Harrah and Tenace.

      Baylor may be the first regular I would cut. Export Lynn to the 80s. Isn't that consistent with others all along, including Rice at the moment. (Bill James wrote that Rice put himself in the Hall of Fame in the 1970s.)

      Kinesiologist Dr. Mike Marshall has a scientific kicker. He continues to research baseball pitching mechanics. As I recall, the abstract or promotion(?) for his presentation at a recent SABR convention was roughly "Why there should never be another pitching injury." Judgment is premature.
      (? First I wrote abstract but it may have been a blurb by the SABR office.)

      Bobby Murcer is the object of some disagreement between Win Shares and WARP. What's that all about?

      Comment


      • #4
        Vida Blue is one of the strongest pitchers outside of Cooperstown and one of only a handful to win an MVP award as a pitcher. He is also a 6 time all star and has a HOF monitor of 114 and 3 of his most similars are in the HOF. He's also likely one of the 6 I'd vote for.

        Wilbur Wood, Jerry Koosman, Mike Hargrove (unless we're crediting him for managerial work) and Gene Tenace have the weakest cases out of all of those players, IMO. Darrel Porter minus 1982 did not have much of an impact, either.

        Edit: Toby Harrah is also a weak candidate.
        Last edited by jjpm74; 03-10-2008, 09:19 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Paul Wendt View Post
          Export Lynn to the 80s. Isn't that consistent with others all along, including Rice at the moment. (Bill James wrote that Rice put himself in the Hall of Fame in the 1970s.)
          It's easier to see that Rice is a 1980's guy. His win shares and WARP3 value both center in 1981. He had two big years in the 80's, Lynn had none.

          Also:
          Mike Hargrove (unless we're crediting him for managerial work)
          Yes, we are crediting him for managing. For Hargrove and the others their value as managers should be added with their playing value in an assessment of their HOF worthiness. As we've always done in this project.
          Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

          Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Freakshow View Post
            Yes, we are crediting him for managing. For Hargrove and the others their value as managers should be added with their playing value in an assessment of their HOF worthiness. As we've always done in this project.
            That definitely makes his case for Cooperstown much stronger.
            Last edited by jjpm74; 03-10-2008, 09:17 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
              Vida Blue is one of the strongest pitchers outside of Cooperstown and one of only a handful to win an MVP award as a pitcher. He is also a 6 time all star and has a HOF monitor of 114 and 3 of his most similars are in the HOF. He's also likely one of the 6 I'd vote for.
              He is likely to fall into the early 1970's poll where we will vote for 5 players. Other top candidates likely headed there are Bonds, Tiant, Staub and Smith.
              Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

              Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

              Comment


              • #8
                Say good bye to:
                Hargrove...if he makes it, it should have nothing to do with his playing career
                Blue...a couple of big seasons and a bunch of fluff
                Davey Johnson...see Hargrove comments
                Munson...fourth best catcher in this group
                Harrah...mostly non-descript career, belongs inthe Hall of Pretty Good
                Baylor...loses out to Roy White because White at least knew what the leather thing was for

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Freakshow View Post
                  He is likely to fall into the early 1970's poll where we will vote for 5 players. Other top candidates likely headed there are Bonds, Tiant, Staub and Smith.

                  I had about 4 lines in my previous post that I guess got cutoff somehow when I posted regarding Blue's negatives which far outweigh his positives. As that post looks, I worded it horribly, so let me clarify. I support Blue as one of the six to be dropped. He's not one of the guys I would vote for to advance to the next round.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by baseballPAP View Post
                    Say good bye to:

                    Munson...fourth best catcher in this group
                    Munson has some supporters for the BBFHOF and HOF and was also selected as a starter in the suburbs of cooperstown thread.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      --Baylor, Harrah, Hargrove, Johnson and Luzinski would be my cuts. Johnson was a better manager than a player. Hargrove is nor close either way or even with both addded together (but then I think he was a terrible manager).

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                        Munson has some supporters for the BBFHOF and HOF and was also selected as a starter in the suburbs of cooperstown thread.
                        --Munson will be closer to making my ballot than he is to making my drop list. Don't know if he will quite make it - it is a deep crop and will take some time to review.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by leecemark View Post
                          --Baylor, Harrah, Hargrove, Johnson and Luzinski would be my cuts. Johnson was a better manager than a player. Hargrove is nor close either way or even with both addded together (but then I think he was a terrible manager).
                          Thanks, Mark. Do you have one more? We're looking to drop 6 guys.

                          So you think all 9 pitchers listed should be on the ballots? The 1970's pitchers are already pretty well represented in the HOF.
                          Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                          Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I'll also remind folks how deep this decade is in candidates. Some of those I looked at and cut from the field of 39: Bill Madlock, Sparky Lyle, Davey Lopes, Gary Matthews, Hal McRae, Steve Rogers, Mike Cuellar, Rick Monday, Tug McGraw and Bob Watson.
                            Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                            Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Quoting myself from this morning:
                              Originally posted by Paul Wendt View Post
                              cut six? Blue, Koosman, and Wood make a good start. If the sabrmetricians are right about Koosman and Lolich, that leaves ML hanging by his superb Octobers. All four, plus Sparky Lyle at least, were bigger names than several of the regulars, perhaps foremost Harrah and Tenace.

                              Baylor may be the first regular I would cut. Export Lynn to the 80s. Isn't that consistent with others all along, including Rice at the moment. (Bill James wrote that Rice put himself in the Hall of Fame in the 1970s.)
                              I didn't mention Lopes but he and Lyle both now look better to me than some on the list. Does everyone agree?

                              export to 1980s: Lynn
                              on the bubble, pitchers: Blue, Koosman, Wood, Lolich
                              on the bubble, other: Luzinski, Baylor, Harrah, Tenace

                              That leaves 30 of 39 securely on this ballot.

                              add to bubble: Lopes, Lyle

                              It's tough to go against the Favorite of Sabrmetricians, Fiore Gino Tenacci, but at the moment I favor Lopes, Lyle, Lolich.

                              Anyway, don't cut Munson or Porter.

                              Comment

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