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Jim Thome and Carlos Delgado?

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  • Jim Thome and Carlos Delgado?

    I have them just about even in my 1B rankings, with Thome maybe a few spots ahead, but do either have a good chance at Cooperstown? Who has the better chance at this point?

  • #2
    They are pretty similar, with Thome walking and striking out more. If their careers ended today, I'd give the edge to Thome, but both would fall short.

    as for who has the better change, I'd say Delgado. He is two years younger and still in the productive part of his career. He'd need to put up very good numbers into his late 30's to really warrant a conversation. I'm mostly saying Delgado has a better chance because I don't know what Thome has left.

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    • #3
      Thome's health issues in the past couple of years have hurt his career numbers but as a dh he may shine bright once more with the White Sox.

      Delgado has a ways to go and when its said and done his politics may keep him out.

      Comment


      • #4
        Thome, one of the Three True Outcome icons, has had ten superb seasons and two good ones. That kind of peak value will get you into the HoF. Other than HR's his counting numbers are rather weak, though. He needs 70 HR's to reach 500 and I can't see him being denied if he does that.

        Delgado, who is just a year younger and played in two fewer seasons, is in the Thome track but has work to do. He has had 8 superb seasons and two good ones. Two good seasons and a reasonable decline and he is in.
        Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

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        • #5
          Originally posted by NationalPastime1980
          Delgado has a ways to go and when its said and done his politics may keep him out.
          I agree with that, but some good seasons and heroics in New York could go a long way to helping Delgado get in the Hall.

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          • #6
            There is still time to change my mind, but I wouldn't put either of them in the Hall - neither now, nor in the future. But as I said, there is still time, only being in their early/mid '30's now. I just don't see them doing enough, and I believe in that we will soon see 500 HR hitters NOT make the Hall here, so Thome wouldn't necessarily be a lock even IF he makes it there, and the same goes for Delgado. And neither is too highly touted for their gloves, neither do they do much of anything on the bases, with a combined total of 27 SB's between them, for a combined success rate of only 51%. So not enough for me, so they both would have to do more to get me to change my mind.

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            • #7
              Coincidentally, I've been playing with win shares and player ages and I had recalled Delgado being a topic of conversation this winter. Thought maybe this data could shed some light on Delgado's Hall chances.

              Career Win Shares, thru Age-33 season, First Basemen
              428 Lou Gehrig
              422 Jimmie Foxx
              327 Dick Allen
              324 Eddie Murray
              318 Jeff Bagwell
              298 Willie McCovey
              294 Orlando Cepeda
              284 Will Clark
              278 Jim Thome
              276 Boog Powell
              269 John Olerud
              259 Roger Connor
              256 Ed Konetchy
              255 Don Mattingly
              255 Rafael Palmeiro
              243 Carlos Delgado
              243 Mark McGwire
              241 Fred McGriff
              241 Tony Perez
              240 George Sisler
              239 Jake Beckley
              236 Frank Chance
              236 Jason Giambi
              234 Johnny Mize
              229 Jim Bottomley
              224 Gil Hodges
              223 Steve Garvey
              223 Pedro Guerrero
              220 Kent Hrbek

              So it's a mixed bag for Delgado. He could certainly earn election over the next several years, but then again he might not. It was extremely interesting to me that he and McGwire had the same value through their age-33 season. But then, McGwire's age-33 season was 1997 so his best year was yet to come! Delgado must have 3-4 more all-star caliber seasons in order to make himself a serious Hall of Fame candidate. How likely that is, who can say?

              Thome, on the other hand, needs only to have a prolonged decline phase over the next several seasons to cement his place as one of the great hitters of his era. That is to say...don't drop off a cliff.
              "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
              "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
              "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
              "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

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              • #8
                So far, possibly. But I usually dont like speculating on HOF worthiness until the guy is retired.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by DoubleX
                  I have them just about even in my 1B rankings, with Thome maybe a few spots ahead, but do either have a good chance at Cooperstown? Who has the better chance at this point?
                  At some point, this era is going to have to be considered. Can they really just start letting everybody is just cause their raw numbers seem good? What would Dale Murphy do in this era? 550 HR maybe? It's getting out of control

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                  • #10
                    Another reason why the extent of the steroid use is the most important missing piece in the equation.

                    Say, evidence surfaces for a large majority of the elite power hitters of this decade indicating that they were on steroids, but Carlos Delgado was one of the few that wasn't. Perhaps, now he is a HOFer. I see no reason why 500 clean HRs, and nice rate stats wouldn't get him in.

                    As it is, Delgado doesn't look all that promising, though I could see people starting threads in 2030, "Why isn't Delgado in the HOF?" This era's voting results are likely to appear to be pretty arbitrary for the guys close to the bubble.
                    THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

                    In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

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                    • #11
                      Exactly!

                      I can easily see the Hall of Fame inducting fewer players from the 1990s and 2000s because of this arbitrariness than they have from the 1970s and 1980s...and that's saying something!

                      But at some point, this era will have to be considered and the wheat will need to be separated from the chaff.

                      Bad enough that the offensive boom has obscured some great pitching careers beyond the big five (Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Pedro, Glavine). Is it really unreasonable to think that maybe Kevin Brown or Mike Mussina isn't a Hall-of-Famer because he's in an era where the 4.00 ERA is common and where starting pitchers typically go 6-7 innings instead of 8-9?

                      Yet, at the same time, we're holding the offensive accomplishments of hitters against them!?

                      When Larry Walker is denied access to the Hall, will it be because of limited playing time due to injuries, or will it be because the voters overestimate the effects of Coors Field?

                      How come guys like Gary Sheffield and Manny Ramirez aren't already talked about, at large, as future Hall-of-Famers?

                      Why is the selection of a Barry Larkin or Roberto Alomar "iffy" for so many fans?

                      You can't have it both ways. Fans aren't applying the lens of the "era of inflated offense" to all candidates equally, what makes us think the voters will? They are just as arbitrary in their selection criteria!

                      And don't even get me going with steroids. People seem to generally want to apply the accusation to players they don't like (Bonds, Sheffield, Canseco) while defending players they do (Sosa, McGwire).

                      Across-the-board application of one's selection criteria is a very basic (and extremely reasonable) request of anyone involved in the process and that is as unlikely over the next 20 years as it has been in the past 20.
                      "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                      "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                      "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                      "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Personally I don't think either Thome or Delgado will make it to the Hall of Fame. Thome is obviously past his prime, and he shows no signs of having a late-career resugence.
                        Delgado on the other hand is still in the prime of his career, but he would have to blow the game open during his mid-to-late thirties in a Bonds sort of way to have a shot

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Chancellor
                          Exactly!

                          I can easily see the Hall of Fame inducting fewer players from the 1990s and 2000s because of this arbitrariness than they have from the 1970s and 1980s...and that's saying something!

                          But at some point, this era will have to be considered and the wheat will need to be separated from the chaff.

                          Bad enough that the offensive boom has obscured some great pitching careers beyond the big five (Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Pedro, Glavine). Is it really unreasonable to think that maybe Kevin Brown or Mike Mussina isn't a Hall-of-Famer because he's in an era where the 4.00 ERA is common and where starting pitchers typically go 6-7 innings instead of 8-9?

                          Yet, at the same time, we're holding the offensive accomplishments of hitters against them!?

                          When Larry Walker is denied access to the Hall, will it be because of limited playing time due to injuries, or will it be because the voters overestimate the effects of Coors Field?

                          How come guys like Gary Sheffield and Manny Ramirez aren't already talked about, at large, as future Hall-of-Famers?

                          Why is the selection of a Barry Larkin or Roberto Alomar "iffy" for so many fans?

                          You can't have it both ways. Fans aren't applying the lens of the "era of inflated offense" to all candidates equally, what makes us think the voters will? They are just as arbitrary in their selection criteria!

                          And don't even get me going with steroids. People seem to generally want to apply the accusation to players they don't like (Bonds, Sheffield, Canseco) while defending players they do (Sosa, McGwire).

                          Across-the-board application of one's selection criteria is a very basic (and extremely reasonable) request of anyone involved in the process and that is as unlikely over the next 20 years as it has been in the past 20.
                          Terrific post! I actually kind of believe that it will be up to boards like this to trumpet the causes of those who might get unfairly overlooked (Alomar and Larkin, even Mussina and Brown), and to generally level the playing field and give some perspective to the era. I think boards like this are becoming increasingly popular and are gaining the attention of some of the writers. I can't prove this of course, but all it takes is for a few writers/columnists to happen upon here, and then proliferate the ideas in their writings. I actually believe boards like this are a big part of why Bert Blyleven is making headway and why Jim Rice can't get the over hump.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by DoubleX
                            Terrific post! I actually kind of believe that it will be up to boards like this to trumpet the causes of those who might get unfairly overlooked (Alomar and Larkin, even Mussina and Brown), and to generally level the playing field and give some perspective to the era. I think boards like this are becoming increasingly popular and are gaining the attention of some of the writers. I can't prove this of course, but all it takes is for a few writers/columnists to happen upon here, and then proliferate the ideas in their writings. I actually believe boards like this are a big part of why Bert Blyleven is making headway and why Jim Rice can't get the over hump.
                            Great point! I don't know about writers lurking on bulletin boards, but I do know quite a few of them read some of the more popular blogs - Pinto, Gleeman, Zumsteg, etc. - and that baseball bloggers do frequent these kinds of boards regularly! I have to agree with your specific example, too. I believe that Blyleven's increasing support is strongly correlated to the grassroots campaign on his behalf by fans like us.
                            "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                            "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                            "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                            "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Thome's got the edge in what's in the books, and as pointed out, he's going to be more popular than Delgado on a personal level. On the other hand, Thome's health is a real question, and could easily make his career fall off a cliff. Thome's ten most similar through his current age are a good group:

                              Jose Canseco (898)
                              Mike Schmidt (879) *
                              Harmon Killebrew (873) *
                              Reggie Jackson (873) *
                              Juan Gonzalez (869)
                              Willie McCovey (866) *
                              Fred McGriff (861)
                              Duke Snider (858) *
                              Frank Thomas (857)
                              Willie Stargell (849)*

                              There's six HOFers there now, and Frank Thomas at least should join them. But if he has a poor end to his career, he's toast, particularly since this list may be a bit more favorable to him than he deserves due to the era. I wish him well since he's a class act.

                              Delgado's most similar list through his playing age is less impressive, which means he has to make up ground:

                              Willie McCovey (916) *
                              Albert Belle (914)
                              Fred McGriff (913)
                              Jeff Bagwell (893)
                              Frank Thomas (890)
                              Jim Thome (887)
                              Jose Canseco (875)
                              Rocky Colavito (853)
                              Reggie Jackson (852) *
                              Gil Hodges (852)

                              He's got two HOFers already, and I'd say he picks up Bagwell and Thomas.

                              Jim Albright
                              Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                              Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                              A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

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