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  • Originally posted by Los Bravos View Post
    I think a bit more of Holtzman than you seem to but that's not worth making a fuss over.
    I didn't even look at his page. I forgot he was with the Cubs. Just knew he was 3rd starter behind Vida Blue & Catfish Hunter and was decent. No fault in being behind Hunter & Fergie Jenkins. Obviously Blue was a stud.
    "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

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    • His time after Oakland didn't do his case any favors. Billy Martin hated him. for whatever reason.
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      • When Hudson retired I thought his case looked better than it does now in context. The 2000s decade pitchers mostly consist of peak guys whose careers were cut short and compilers, compared with that group Hudson looked great, with only Roy Halladay clearly having the better career at the time. Nowadays high WAR and high strikeout guys are the most valued, and Hudson’s shiny W-L record and low K rates not as much, and his ERA doesn’t look as impressive compared to current top guys as it did against his own age group pitchers. Since 2015, CC Sabathia revived his career to rack up impressive counting stats, and more younger guys have pitched better in their thirties than may have been expected, so now there are six active players who rank ahead of him in career WAR with probably more to come.

        Comment


        • Potential (Deserving) SP Candidates on the BBWAA Ballot
          2020 - Clemens, Schilling, Pettitte
          2021 - Buehrle, Clemens, Hudson, Schilling, Pettitte
          2022 - Buehrle, Clemens, Hudson, Schilling, Pettitte
          2023 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte
          2024 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte
          2025 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia
          2026 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia
          2027 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
          2028 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
          2029 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
          2030 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
          2031 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
          2032 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
          2033 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
          2034 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
          2035 - Greinke*, Scherzer*, Verlander*

          * earliest possible debut given current contract status.

          The only other potential > 5% guy I see hitting the ballot before Verlander/Greinke/Scherzer is Cole Hamels, who will be a free agent this winter and is 35 years old this summer. It seems he wouldn't debut before 2027 - he needs the career production - but who knows?

          I don't know that Mark Buerhle or Tim Hudson will stay on the ballot beyond the first year, much less for 10 ballots, but that will just make it that less crowded for CC when he hits the BBWAA. I am now confident that the writers will elect CC. I am confident they will not elect either Buehrle, Hudson or Pettitte. Clemens is 50/50 at best right now.

          Hoping that Curt Schilling joins Derek Jeter in Cooperstown this winter.
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

          Comment


          • Strongly suspect Jeter doesn't share that hope, even if he thinks Schilling is over the line.
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            • Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
              Potential (Deserving) SP Candidates on the BBWAA Ballot
              2020 - Clemens, Schilling, Pettitte
              2021 - Buehrle, Clemens, Hudson, Schilling, Pettitte
              2022 - Buehrle, Clemens, Hudson, Schilling, Pettitte
              2023 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte
              2024 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte
              2025 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia
              2026 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia
              2027 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
              2028 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
              2029 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
              2030 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
              2031 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
              2032 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
              2033 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
              2034 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
              2035 - Greinke*, Scherzer*, Verlander*

              * earliest possible debut given current contract status.

              The only other potential > 5% guy I see hitting the ballot before Verlander/Greinke/Scherzer is Cole Hamels, who will be a free agent this winter and is 35 years old this summer. It seems he wouldn't debut before 2027 - he needs the career production - but who knows?

              I don't know that Mark Buerhle or Tim Hudson will stay on the ballot beyond the first year, much less for 10 ballots, but that will just make it that less crowded for CC when he hits the BBWAA. I am now confident that the writers will elect CC. I am confident they will not elect either Buehrle, Hudson or Pettitte. Clemens is 50/50 at best right now.

              Hoping that Curt Schilling joins Derek Jeter in Cooperstown this winter.
              What about Kershaw? Sale?

              Also, a lot can change pretty quickly. In five years a guy we do not see as a HOF candidate could have emerged and become a HOFer. Did anyone think Scherzer had a shot at the HOF five years ago?
              Last edited by willshad; 07-10-2019, 04:52 PM.

              Comment


              • Kershaw's current contract expires the same year as Greinke, Scherzer and Verlander (after the 2021 season), those pitchers will be 38, 37 and 36 years old at that time. Kershaw will only be 33. While I wouldn't be surprised if he retires "early", it won't be that early. I'd bank on the other three retiring first.

                Be that as it may, Verlander won't debut for at least eight more ballots at minimum. Assume the electorate continues to change at a rate of 5% per year, with inactive/older voters phased out while younger ones continue to join. (Over the past three years, the average has been just under 6%.) That would yield another 40% or so of the electorate changed from its present constitution by the time Verlander reaches the ballot. That's 40% more people who remember Verlander as one of the game's best pitchers, 40% more people who are used to seeing stats like ERA+, WHIP and WAR, 40% more who watch MLB Network and may even use websites like Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs. By that time Murray Chass, Bill Madden and their generation will be in their eighties and very likely inactive as baseball writers in some cases.

                I'm not suggesting this will result in Huddy's election, but it should certainly get Greinke, Kershaw, Scherzer and Verlander in on the first ballot or darned close to it. It will certainly help Sabathia's election, too. Point being that the usual nonsense that often comes from these guys - like "he's not a first-ballot HOFer" - will be much lessened than in past generations of electorates. These guys won't have to wait 4-5 years to get in once they hit the ballot.
                "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                Comment


                • Happy 44th Tim, here's hoping the BBWAA takes your case seriously, on the good side of the grey area for me to elect.
                  Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
                  http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Jar of Flies View Post
                    Happy 44th Tim, here's hoping the BBWAA takes your case seriously, on the good side of the grey area for me to elect.
                    Huddy will earn a spot on my 2021 BBWAA ballot. If only I had an actual vote....
                    Last edited by Chadwick; 07-15-2019, 03:12 PM.
                    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Los Bravos View Post
                      Strongly suspect Jeter doesn't share that hope, even if he thinks Schilling is over the line.
                      Jeter probably wants to go in solo, given the guy's ego.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
                        Huddy will earn a spot on my 2021 BBWAA ballot. If only I had an actual vote....
                        I'm hoping he doesn't get dismissed on the first ballot. If he does, it will demonstrate just how little the BBWAA understands about pitcher usage in his era. 3000 IP, 120 ERA+, 2000+ Ks are all impressive. What hurts his case is low CYA shares, an early peak, only an AS 4X and ineffective in the post season. It will take a Blyleven-esque movement to get him in.

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                        • Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

                          ineffective in the post season.
                          That's debatable.
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                          • Originally posted by Los Bravos View Post
                            That's debatable.
                            How do you figure that?

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                            • Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

                              How do you figure that?
                              Hudson has a + 0.53 postseason WPA. Just a tick above average. Depends on how one wants to define "ineffective."
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                              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
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                              • That bad W-L record hides a game by game record that comes out looking much like what BA describes. A tick above average. Kyle Farnsworth's epic meltdown in '05 epitomizes that, perfectly.
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