Originally posted by Los Bravos
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Tim Hudson
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"No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”
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When Hudson retired I thought his case looked better than it does now in context. The 2000s decade pitchers mostly consist of peak guys whose careers were cut short and compilers, compared with that group Hudson looked great, with only Roy Halladay clearly having the better career at the time. Nowadays high WAR and high strikeout guys are the most valued, and Hudson’s shiny W-L record and low K rates not as much, and his ERA doesn’t look as impressive compared to current top guys as it did against his own age group pitchers. Since 2015, CC Sabathia revived his career to rack up impressive counting stats, and more younger guys have pitched better in their thirties than may have been expected, so now there are six active players who rank ahead of him in career WAR with probably more to come.
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Potential (Deserving) SP Candidates on the BBWAA Ballot
2020 - Clemens, Schilling, Pettitte
2021 - Buehrle, Clemens, Hudson, Schilling, Pettitte
2022 - Buehrle, Clemens, Hudson, Schilling, Pettitte
2023 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte
2024 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte
2025 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia
2026 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia
2027 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2028 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2029 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2030 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2031 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2032 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2033 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2034 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2035 - Greinke*, Scherzer*, Verlander*
* earliest possible debut given current contract status.
The only other potential > 5% guy I see hitting the ballot before Verlander/Greinke/Scherzer is Cole Hamels, who will be a free agent this winter and is 35 years old this summer. It seems he wouldn't debut before 2027 - he needs the career production - but who knows?
I don't know that Mark Buerhle or Tim Hudson will stay on the ballot beyond the first year, much less for 10 ballots, but that will just make it that less crowded for CC when he hits the BBWAA. I am now confident that the writers will elect CC. I am confident they will not elect either Buehrle, Hudson or Pettitte. Clemens is 50/50 at best right now.
Hoping that Curt Schilling joins Derek Jeter in Cooperstown this winter."It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
"I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
"You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
"There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe
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Originally posted by Chadwick View PostPotential (Deserving) SP Candidates on the BBWAA Ballot
2020 - Clemens, Schilling, Pettitte
2021 - Buehrle, Clemens, Hudson, Schilling, Pettitte
2022 - Buehrle, Clemens, Hudson, Schilling, Pettitte
2023 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte
2024 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte
2025 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia
2026 - Buehrle, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia
2027 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2028 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Pettitte, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2029 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2030 - Buehrle, Greinke*, Hudson, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2031 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2032 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2033 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2034 - Greinke*, Sabathia, Scherzer*, Verlander*
2035 - Greinke*, Scherzer*, Verlander*
* earliest possible debut given current contract status.
The only other potential > 5% guy I see hitting the ballot before Verlander/Greinke/Scherzer is Cole Hamels, who will be a free agent this winter and is 35 years old this summer. It seems he wouldn't debut before 2027 - he needs the career production - but who knows?
I don't know that Mark Buerhle or Tim Hudson will stay on the ballot beyond the first year, much less for 10 ballots, but that will just make it that less crowded for CC when he hits the BBWAA. I am now confident that the writers will elect CC. I am confident they will not elect either Buehrle, Hudson or Pettitte. Clemens is 50/50 at best right now.
Hoping that Curt Schilling joins Derek Jeter in Cooperstown this winter.
Also, a lot can change pretty quickly. In five years a guy we do not see as a HOF candidate could have emerged and become a HOFer. Did anyone think Scherzer had a shot at the HOF five years ago?Last edited by willshad; 07-10-2019, 04:52 PM.
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Kershaw's current contract expires the same year as Greinke, Scherzer and Verlander (after the 2021 season), those pitchers will be 38, 37 and 36 years old at that time. Kershaw will only be 33. While I wouldn't be surprised if he retires "early", it won't be that early. I'd bank on the other three retiring first.
Be that as it may, Verlander won't debut for at least eight more ballots at minimum. Assume the electorate continues to change at a rate of 5% per year, with inactive/older voters phased out while younger ones continue to join. (Over the past three years, the average has been just under 6%.) That would yield another 40% or so of the electorate changed from its present constitution by the time Verlander reaches the ballot. That's 40% more people who remember Verlander as one of the game's best pitchers, 40% more people who are used to seeing stats like ERA+, WHIP and WAR, 40% more who watch MLB Network and may even use websites like Baseball Prospectus or FanGraphs. By that time Murray Chass, Bill Madden and their generation will be in their eighties and very likely inactive as baseball writers in some cases.
I'm not suggesting this will result in Huddy's election, but it should certainly get Greinke, Kershaw, Scherzer and Verlander in on the first ballot or darned close to it. It will certainly help Sabathia's election, too. Point being that the usual nonsense that often comes from these guys - like "he's not a first-ballot HOFer" - will be much lessened than in past generations of electorates. These guys won't have to wait 4-5 years to get in once they hit the ballot."It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
"I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
"You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
"There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe
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Happy 44th Tim, here's hoping the BBWAA takes your case seriously, on the good side of the grey area for me to elect.Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand
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Originally posted by Jar of Flies View PostHappy 44th Tim, here's hoping the BBWAA takes your case seriously, on the good side of the grey area for me to elect.Last edited by Chadwick; 07-15-2019, 03:12 PM."It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
"I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
"You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
"There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe
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Originally posted by Chadwick View PostHuddy will earn a spot on my 2021 BBWAA ballot. If only I had an actual vote....
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Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
How do you figure that?1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011
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The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
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