Tim Hudson

[SamtheBravesFan]

Huddy's chances for the Hall: slim to none.

He's had an excellent go with the Braves, as he has been one of the aces of the staff and on the short list of best starters in Atlanta Braves club history, but injuries and just two seaons with the Braves where he would be considered a top 10 pitcher mean he's buying a ticket to the Hall.

[Cowtipper]

He's having another solid, but not stupendous, season. I think that's how he's going to go down in history--solid, but not stupendous. One of those guys who gets 10% of the vote for a while. He should win 200 games, which will bolster his case.

[Los Bravos]

If Hudson pitches four more seasons, which takes him to age 40, he could conceivably end up with about 240 career victories. Maybe that doesn't make him a Hall of Famer, but it puts him in the discussion.

The full David Schoenfeld piece

[willshad]

I never realized how similar Hudson's career has been to Roy Halladay's, until I just looked at the stats. Halladay is just a tiny bit better across the board, but they are very comparable. Somehow it hasn't seemed that way, probbaly because Halladay has had more 'big' seasons.

[Bothrops Atrox]

I would have never guessed that when the two "Pitching Big 3's" started dominating in Oakland and Chicago about a decade ago: 3 would be out of the game completely, 2 would be 5th starters, and only Hudson would have anything even close to a HOF career just ten years later.

[Jackaroo Dave]

Pitcher's WAR actually seems to be a pretty good predictor of HOF selection. He's in the low 50s now, almost spitting distance. If he stays solid for 3-4 more years, 230 or so wins, era below 3.5, w/l % close to .650, 60 WAR (which writers might even be paying attebtion to in 10 years) . . . That's quite a lot of positives. But he's been up and down the past few years. Who knows if he can do it?

[George H Ruth]

Thoughts on Hudson now that he reaches 200 wins?

[Captain Cold Nose]

Thoughts on Hudson now that he reaches 200 wins?

Without any serious ink, records or post-season big moments, it's just a nice milestone.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Without any serious ink, records or post-season big moments, it's just a nice milestone.

Yep. Hudson's going down as one of the best starters in Braves history and that's pretty rarified air, but I'd be extremely surprised if he even gets a whiff of the Hall of Fame vote.

[baltimorechop]

I'd put him in, and I think he'll warrant a little more discussion by the time he's done (assuming he doesn't hang it up after this year). He was a top pitcher during his career, career 125 ERA+ over 2700 IP. It's too bad he got hurt in 08 and missed almost all of 09. He lost out on about a year's worth, that could be 16 or so wins that would be really nice to have when all is over. If he gets 12 or so more wins this year, and can squeak out another 2 years with 12 or so each, that's 236 overall. 252 would've garnered far more attention.

On the WAR side, he's got 54.8 pitching WAR (with 31.3 WAA) and 1.7 batting WAR. He's got a great shot to break 60 WAR, and hopefully keep his WAA above 30. I also have been looking at how many top 10s, and Hudson was 7 times a top 10 pitcher by WAR. That's not amazing, but it's not a small feat (Glavine only had 6 top 10 pitching WAR finishes despite having 74 WAR). Hudson's over my line.

[baltimorechop]

Sorry to double up, but I ran some searches.

Right now, He's not looking great based on his company. Hud has 2700 IP and 125 ERA+, so i looked for 2500-3000 IP and 122-128 ERA+. This pulled up some great pitchers like Saberhagen, Stieb, Urban Shocker, Bob Caruthers, Sabathia. But, only two HOFers (out of 12 total), Lefty Gomez & Dazzy Vance. The top end of this list would not be an embarassment to the HOF, but I'd only be willing to argue that Vance is a solid HOFer. Hudson's 200 W's are second to only Caruthers (19th century) in this list.


Let's say he were to last for at least a couple more years and get to say, 3200 IP while only slightly lowering his ERA+ to say 123. I ran a search for 3000-3500 IP and 120-126 ERA+.

Only 6 pitchers: Smoltz, Silver King, Cicotte, Hugh Griffith, Drysdale & McGinnity. That's a lot better company. If you exclude Silver King (1800IP in AA/PL) you have:

1 future HOFer
1 Pioneer (who many would argue deserved it for his career as well)
2 HOFers
1 Black Sox (many would argue may've been able to punch a ticket if not banned).

That's a lot better chances. Hudson would probably have at least 225 wins if this were to happen, which wouldn't look out of place next to Drysdale's 209, Smoltz 213; McGinnity leads with 246.

[brett]

Yep. Hudson's going down as one of the best starters in Braves history and that's pretty rarified air, but I'd be extremely surprised if he even gets a whiff of the Hall of Fame vote.

Hudson is now 95 games above .500

Carlton: +75
Perry +49
Neikro: +44
Ryan: +32

He compares well with Mussina, Schilling, Smoltz in IP and ERA+, closing in on 3000 innings with a 125 ERA+. '99-'03 or '04 is probably one of the 75 or so best starter peaks in history.

I would not put him in. He'd need a couple or 3 years at '10 levels, or 4-6 at '11-'12 levels.

[SamtheBravesFan]

I don't think people would notice him despite his 200-105 career won-loss record. The traditional stuff would matter greatly with Hudson because he doesn't have a single award, is only a three-time All-Star, just once with Atlanta, and the only thing he's led the league in since he came to the Braves is hit batsmen in 2011.

[willshad]

Hudson reminds me of a poor man's Mike Mussina. Always seems to have good W/L record, decent but not great ERA. In fact, Hudson is very near what Mussina was at age 34 or so. The fact that he is 37, however, means he will have to have great longevity just to match Mussina, who many think is not a deserving HOF candidate. He also does not have the strikeout/walk ratio Mussina had.

[Bothrops Atrox]

(Glavine only had 6 top 10 pitching WAR finishes despite having 74 WAR).

If you used the much preferable UZR instead of TZ in 2002, Glavine had 7 top 10 finishes. Including offense, he had a 1st, a 2nd, three 4ths, and two 7ths. 3-4 other top 15s too.

Glavine also had Maddux, Smoltz, and Schilling in his league for most all of his career, Kevin Brown's peak for much of it, Randy Johnson for a big chunk of it, Pedro for a handful of those seasons and even Clemens for a handful of seasons. Harder to crack the top 10 like that.

I would not put Hudson in yet, but he is close. Give me another good year, and I will put him in.

Unless...

Total Zone underrated pitchers who are extreme GBers with good BABIP, since it assumes that the defense is solely responsible for all out-on-groundball conversion, due to the batted ball assumption that GB always = worse BABIP. Total Zone (and WAR) is probably docking him .2-.3 WAR each year that he deserves. Maddux lost about 3-4 WAR over his career due to this.