Tim Hudson

[Bothrops Atrox]

Any of your opinions have changed about his possibility of making the Hall of Fame?

I had him in before this year. A decent season in 2013 has done little to move him up or down for me.

[Cowtipper]

He pretty much made my Hall of Fame after last season. Anything from here on out is just icing on the cake.

[dgarza]

As good and consistent as he was, I think he falls just short.

[Bothrops Atrox]

He pretty much made my Hall of Fame after last season. Anything from here on out is just icing on the cake.

I don't think any of: Oswalt, Sabathia, Buehrle, Lee, Santana, Wainwright, Verlander, Hudson, Grienke, Hamels, etc. are actually getting in. I am not sure Doc will actually get elected either. Maybe Kershaw and Felix if they can accumulate decent career numbers. But if either have a shortish career...

Everybody is still operating from a pitcher-from-back-in-the-day paradigm. Now I don't think all of these guys are HOFers either, but there will be a point in the future where people realize that virtually no starting pitchers who debuted and primed over a 20+ year span are in the HOF.

Either the best modern pitchers pale in comparison to the best of every other era, or we have to collectively re-evaluate what to expect from a HOF modern pitcher in terms of career wins, IP, Ks, WAR, etc.

[Cougar]

Getting to a World Series at last, let alone potentially winning one, can only enhance Hudson's case.

Hudson's regular season probably doesn't especially enhance or detract very much. He did have his first losing season, which deprives him of the "never had a losing season" talking point.

However, he manifestly pitched in very hard luck in 2014. Hudson did undeniably bellyflop in September, going 0-4, but through the end of August he had a 2.90 ERA pitching for a very good team. That would almost always lead to a better W-L record than the 9-9 he was saddled with.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Hudson had a hip problem in September that was kept quiet until it was obvious that something was wrong with him.

http://www.sfgate.com/giants/article/Struggling-Tim-Hudson-throws-side-session-5773621.php

[Cowtipper]

I don't think any of: Oswalt, Sabathia, Buehrle, Lee, Santana, Wainwright, Verlander, Hudson, Grienke, Hamels, etc. are actually getting in. I am not sure Doc will actually get elected either. Maybe Kershaw and Felix if they can accumulate decent career numbers. But if either have a shortish career...

Me either, not initially. Some of them are surefire VC guys though - Sabathia likely will be, I could see Verlander and Hudson having a case. When voters in 40 years look back and see a lack of starting pitchers from this era in the Hall, then I think they'll start to get votes. Oswalt, Lee, Santana, Wainwright, Greinke and Hamels probably won't do enough/didn't do enough to merit election anyway, even with the future 'revised' methods of gauging starters.

[Bothrops Atrox]

Me either, not initially. Some of them are surefire VC guys though - Sabathia likely will be, I could see Verlander and Hudson having a case. When voters in 40 years look back and see a lack of starting pitchers from this era in the Hall, then I think they'll start to get votes. Oswalt, Lee, Santana, Wainwright, Greinke and Hamels probably won't do enough/didn't do enough to merit election anyway, even with the future 'revised' methods of gauging starters.

I don't think we can even guess what the VC will be doing 40 years from now. Their paradigms shift frequently.

I think Verlander is close to toast without a big rebound. Greinke, Waino, and Hamel's are about the same age have similar career numbers and still are pitching well. I don't think any of them make it, however.

[Los Bravos]

I think this generation might be a little like Morris' Most of the elite guys will finish with numbers that leave them short, like that one's top eschelon (Stieb, Fernando, Viola) were. Then we'll see when Matt's paradigm shift (which will come, sooner or later) will kick in.

[Bothrops Atrox]

I think this generation might be a little like Morris' Most of the elite guys will finish with numbers that leave them short, like that one's top eschelon (Stieb, Fernando, Viola) were. Then we'll see when Matt's paradigm shift (which will come, sooner or later) will kick in.

At least Ryan, Blyleven and a few others were still in their primes in the late 70's/early 80's. And Carlton the first half. And you had Clemens as a mega-star the second half of the decade. Morris will get elected too by the VC. And Eck as a combined effort. I agree that the era was neglected (Id have Hershiser, Stieb, and Saberhagen in)... But I fear this generation will be far more underrepresented even than that.

[Chadwick]

At least Ryan, Blyleven and a few others were still in their primes in the late 70's/early 80's. And Carlton the first half. And you had Clemens as a mega-star the second half of the decade. Morris will get elected too by the VC. And Eck as a combined effort. I agree that the era was neglected (Id have Hershiser, Stieb, and Saberhagen in)... But I fear this generation will be far more underrepresented even than that.

I completely agree.

One responsibility of those of us who study such things is to identify trends like this and get ahead of the curve. The proverbial lone voice in the wilderness may, in due time, help alleviate some of the pressure building up which would burst the dam and flood the Hall with mediocre candidates. We do not want a repeat of the 1945-46 Old-Timers Committee or the Frisch selections.

I completely agree with you about the current era. The Generation Y pitchers are screwed. Despite the occasional BBWAA member being (moderately) savvy with analytics, or at least not completely opposed to it, people don't easily (or quickly) change long-held POVs, even when open-minded enough to do so. I think we may have a better chance of promoting players like Johan Santana and Roy Oswalt than we will the Mark Buehrles of the world (unless the latter group reach the 270-280 win plateau somehow.)

Were I one of these starters in mid-career, I'd very carefully consider the quality of a team's bullpen when considering where to accept a free agent offer.

[Bothrops Atrox]

One way to really get an idea about how much newer players are hurt by usage patterns, is comparing WARs and WAA with older players. Here are a few examples...

Roy Oswalt has 50.2 WAR and 32.5 WAA. Don Sutton had 67.4 WAR but 22 WAA. Oswalt prevented runs much better compared to his peers than Sutton. But Sutton pitched so many innings and racked up so many more wins and much more WAR. Now a lot of that is due to Sutton pitching longer, of course, but keep in mind...Sutton produced 10 fewer WAA despite pitching that much longer.

Think Adam Wainwright is WAY off HOF pace? He has 23.8 WAA. Everybody's favorite borderline guy, Tommy John had 21.6.

Cliff Lee has 24.8 WAA and Early Wynn has 26.3.

The lack of playing time not only limits these guys reputations in terms of wins and losses, but even sabermetricaly too. Well, if you using WAR and not WAA that is.

I don't think people realize how good historically these guys are. We cannot look at their WL records and IP totals and WAR and compare them to pitchers of the past.

[dgarza]

I don't think people realize how good historically these guys are. We cannot look at their WL records and IP totals and WAR and compare them to pitchers of the past.

Looking at WAA/pitch, we can see that a lot of our pitchers who came on board since 2000 have had very strong starts. What they've done through age 29 is impressive, and some are not done.

20+ WAA through Age 29

                                               
Rk             Player WAA/pitch From   To   Age
1     Clayton Kershaw      28.8 2008 2014 20-26
2         Cole Hamels      21.2 2006 2013 22-29
3     Felix Hernandez      26.0 2005 2014 19-28
4    Justin Verlander      21.3 2005 2012 22-29
5        Brandon Webb      23.3 2003 2008 24-29
6          Roy Oswalt      25.9 2001 2007 23-29
7     Carlos Zambrano      24.0 2001 2010 20-29
8         CC Sabathia      22.9 2001 2010 20-29
9       Johan Santana      28.0 2000 2008 21-29
10         Tim Hudson      20.8 1999 2005 23-29
11     Pedro Martinez      42.4 1992 2001 20-29
12       Mike Mussina      22.7 1991 1998 22-29
13       Kevin Appier      30.0 1989 1997 21-29
14        Greg Maddux      33.4 1986 1995 20-29
15      Roger Clemens      45.0 1984 1992 21-29
16    Bret Saberhagen      28.5 1984 1993 20-29
17      Dwight Gooden      23.5 1984 1994 19-29
18          Jose Rijo      20.1 1984 1994 19-29
19         Dave Stieb      24.4 1979 1987 21-29
20      Rick Reuschel      21.9 1972 1978 23-29
21      Bert Blyleven      34.3 1970 1980 19-29
22         Tom Seaver      39.3 1967 1974 22-29
23     Fergie Jenkins      27.6 1965 1972 22-29
24      Steve Carlton      21.4 1965 1974 20-29
25       Sam McDowell      22.4 1961 1972 18-29
26      Juan Marichal      24.1 1960 1967 22-29
27       Don Drysdale      25.0 1956 1966 19-29
28       Sandy Koufax      23.3 1955 1965 19-29
29      Robin Roberts      30.0 1948 1956 21-29

We shall see how strong they finish...

20+ WAA from Age 30 on

                                             
Rk           Player WAA/pitch From   To   Age
1         Cliff Lee      21.4 2009 2014 30-35
2      Roy Halladay      21.5 2007 2013 30-36
3    Mariano Rivera      23.9 2000 2013 30-43
4      Mike Mussina      26.0 1999 2008 30-39
5    Curt Schilling      44.8 1997 2007 30-40
6       John Smoltz      21.4 1997 2009 30-42
7       Greg Maddux      31.5 1996 2008 30-42
8       Tom Glavine      26.8 1996 2008 30-42
9       Kevin Brown      34.6 1995 2005 30-40
10    Randy Johnson      63.8 1994 2009 30-45
11    Roger Clemens      49.6 1993 2007 30-44
12       David Cone      24.9 1993 2003 30-40
13      David Wells      20.7 1993 2007 30-44
14       Nolan Ryan      23.9 1977 1993 30-46
15       Tom Seaver      26.2 1975 1986 30-41
16      Phil Niekro      48.0 1969 1987 30-48
17    Gaylord Perry      37.6 1969 1983 30-44
18       Bob Gibson      35.5 1966 1975 30-39
19     Hoyt Wilhelm      25.8 1953 1972 30-49
20     Warren Spahn      28.3 1951 1965 30-44
21   Harry Brecheen      20.1 1945 1953 30-38

I realize a pitcher doesn't have to (and should not necessarily be expected to) finish his career as strong as he starts it, but this does make for an interesting comparison.
note: NOBODY who turned 30 in the 80s made this list. They would have mostly been 1970s debuts.

[Bravesfan1984]

I had him in before this year. A decent season in 2013 has done little to move him up or down for me.

I do not see how he is in right now or even close. He only has 214 wins so he does not have the high number of wins to hang onto on he won 20 games once and best CY Young finish was second and after that the best finish he had was 4th. There are better pitchers not in the Hall of Fame who are better then Hudson Jack Morris and Tommy John come to mind.

[Sliding Billy]

WAR is actually a pretty good predictor of HOF membership for starting pitchers:

Of the 38 pitchers with WAR between 50 and 60, including Hudson at 56, 8 are in, 30 are out. If you look at Hudson's WAR peers you see a lot of near-misses or shoulda beens, depending on your point of view.

Of the 15 with WAR between 60 and 65, 10 are in and 5 are out.

So the split results here seem to agree with Hudson's WAR and the electors' track record. Two or three decent seasons in the twilight of his career might help his cause a lot.