The Ultimate Quest for Candidates: Round 2 – 1950’s/60’s

[Freakshow]

Welcome to The Ultimate Quest for Candidates – Round 2. This thread will have the fourth poll in the second round, combining the leading players from the polls for the 1950’s and the 1960’s. Refer to the earlier threads for discussion and links to biographies.

There will be 18 players on the ballot. You will be asked to vote for 6 (SIX) players. These 15 players automatically advanced to this round by their top finishes in the Round 1 polls:

100% Ron Santo
92% Joe Torre
88% Dick Allen
86% Gil Hodges
83% Ken Boyer
82% Minnie Minoso
75% Jim Kaat
71% Bill Freehan
64% Billy Pierce
61% Don Newcombe
60% Al Rosen
58% Jim Wynn
56% Ted Kluszewski
54% Frank Howard
54% Tony Oliva

We need to decide who will get the other three spots on the ballot. There are eight runners-up who are under consideration:

38% Maury Wills
35% Alvin Dark
33% Vada Pinson
30% Harvey Kuenn
30% Eddie Yost
29% Norm Cash
25% Elston Howard
22% Jim Gilliam

My personal picks are E. Howard and probably Dark and Pinson. Your input on this issue is strongly requested as we look to develop a consensus.

Below are the players we voted as the top 23 HOF candidates whose careers centered in the 1950’s and 1960’s.

Pos	BJ	Player Name	 Win Shares	 WARP3	              Car WS Adj	Other
3/5	#15	Dick	Allen	(344: 42-41-35)	(89.0: 12.5-10.2-10.0)	+2	
5	#12	Ken	Boyer	(294: 33-28-28)	(98.6: 10.2-10.0-9.9)	+15	military age 21-22
2	#12	Bill	Freehan	(269: 35-30-25)	(70.0: 10.6-8.8-7.1)	+1	
3	#30	Gil	Hodges	(276: 31-27-27)	(86.0: 10.7-9.1-8.7)	+13	Mgr 8.7 yrs/660 wins
7	#19	Frank	Howard	(299: 38-34-30)	(68.1: 8.6-8.2-7.4)	+2	
1	#65	Jim	Kaat	(271: 26-22-22)	(100.8: 9.8-9.5-9.3)	+3	broadcaster
3	#34	Ted  Kluszewski	(213: 35-26-25)	(56.9: 10.5-7.9-6.6)	+10	
7	#10	Minnie	Minoso	(296: 34-31-30)	(78.4: 9.6-8.1-8.0)	+13	NeL
1	#46	Don    Newcombe (227: 28-26-23)	(78.0: 9.4-8.3-8.3)	+51	NeL
9	#21	Tony	Oliva	(245: 33-30-28)	(61.0: 8.0-7.4-7.2)	+0	
1	#59	Billy	Pierce	(259: 25-24-24)	(89.3: 10.0-9.0-7.8)	+11	
5	#14	Al	Rosen	(194: 44-33-30)	(52.2: 12.1-11.2-8.4)	+9	
5	#6	Ron	Santo	(326: 38-36-32)	(112.6: 13.3-13.1-13.0)	+2	broadcaster
2/3	#11	Joe	Torre	(316: 41-29-28)	(99.0: 10.6-9.5-9.1)	+1	Mgr 24.4 yrs/2,067 wins
8	#10	Jim	Wynn	(307: 36-32-32)	(85.9: 10.7-9.2-9.1)	+2	
at-large candidates							
3	#20	Norm	Cash	(317: 42-27-24)	(87.2: 13.2-7.7-7.3)	+2	
6/M	#27	Alvin	Dark	(238: 29-28-24)	(77.4: 9.9-9.6-9.0)	+12	Mgr 12.1 yrs/994 wins
4/5	#27	Jim	Gilliam	(256: 29-28-26)	(77.3: 9.7-8.2-7.5)	+9	NeL
2	#15	Elston	Howard	(213: 32-29-28)	(55.6: 8.4-8.0-7.7)	+10	NeL; military age 22-23
9/6	#62	Harvey	Kuenn	(232: 27-26-23)	(54.6: 9.3-7.7-5.2)	+9	
8	#18	Vada	Pinson	(326: 34-31-28)	(74.9: 7.9-7.7-7.7)	+5	
6	#19	Maury	Wills	(255: 32-28-27)	(80.9: 11.2-8.1-7.9)	+2	
5	#24	Eddie	Yost	(280: 28-28-25)	(63.6: 8.2-7.7-6.8)	+13

Pos – primary position(s)
BJ – rank at his position in the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001)
Win Shares – shown are career total and best 3 years
WARP3 – from Baseball Prospectus; shown are career total and best 3 years
Other – Dark, Hodges and Kuenn were pennant-winning managers. E. Howard, Gilliam, Minoso and Newcombe had their careers hindered by color.

Some other things to be aware of:
1) Bill James’ rankings emphasize players’ peak years; this results in long steady careers being rated lower than what may seem right.
2) Win shares in seasons before 1961 AL and 1962 NL are increased to adjust them to a 162-game season, as are strike seasons 1972 and 1981.
3) The latest WARP3 update has lower numbers for these players than are shown in the Round 1 threads.
4) Extra credit for military service has been added to Boyer, E. Howard and Newcombe.

That leaves 21 players that dropped out of consideration after Round 1: Felipe Alou, Johnny Callison, Rocky Colavito, Del Crandall, Willie Davis, Murray Dickson, Del Ennis, Curt Flood, Jim Fregosi, Bob Friend, Sid Gordon, Dick Groat, Larry Jackson, Roger Maris, Dick McAuliffe, Lindy McDaniel, Gil McDougald, Boog Powell, Roy Sievers, Vic Wertz and Bill White. Each of these candidates drew less than 18% support.

[jjpm74]

Best of the rest

Of those guys, I'd go with Kuenn, Wills and Howard, but whatever you end up doing, I can't see any of the bottom guys getting much support in the wake of the top candidates that will be in this poll.

The one person I'm surprised to see in the top group is Gil Hodges. If so many people here support him, why is he nowhere near the SOC starters (#183 of the top 200 not in Cooperstown and outside of the top 10 at his position) or in the BBFHOF?

[dgarza]

I'd go with Wills, Pinson, and Kuenn.

[Freakshow]

Of those guys, I'd go with Kuenn, Wills and Howard, but whatever you end up doing, I can't see any of the bottom guys getting much support in the wake of the top candidates that will be in this poll.

The one person I'm surprised to see in the top group is Gil Hodges. If so many people here support him, why is he nowhere near the SOC starters (#183 of the top 200 not in Cooperstown and outside of the top 10 at his position) or in the BBFHOF?

Deciding the bottom guys is pertinent to future projects that will spin-off this one. Those three will be in the discussion of the top 100 candidates from MLB for the Hall.

As for Hodges, his Round 1 support has something to do with giving him manager credit, but probably more to do with a fairly weak field of candidates from his decade. He may be hard pressed to make the runoff field for Round 3.

[Paul Wendt]

This group of honorable mentions is extraordinarily weak, if I may use that adjective based on experience of three earlier scores of years. I voted for Eddie Yost and Jim Gilliam, but that was against 1950s competition. I recall wishing I could vote for both Howard brothers in round one but plunking for Frank (and thereby hitting all nine winners). Pinson, Cash, and Wills give them a run for their money, although my preference for them over Yost & Gilliam is tepid.

I see that Bill James also ranks all four from the 1960s above all four from the 1950s (#15-20 vs #27-62).

Wills and Pinson have in their favor is that they scored more votes against a stronger field.

Other – Alvin Dark and Gil Hodges were both pennant-winning managers. E. Howard, Gilliam, Minoso and Newcombe had their careers hindered by color.

Harvey Kuenn was a pennant-winning manager, too.
Remember Harvey's Wallbangers?

I passed over Alvin Dark on round one because it seemed to me that he may have been one integration resistor. There is a thread somewhere here at BBF about his role as manager of the Giants. Probably some others can speak to that, ideally one of his first-round supporters knows of it and feels there is good reason to dismiss it. He isn't a plausible candidate as a player alone, but I supported Johnny Sain and Bill Dinneen for advancement to round two, honorable mentions who depend on careers as pitching coach and umpire.

[Freakshow]

Harvey Kuenn was a pennant-winning manager, too.

Added. Thank you.

I see that Bill James also ranks all four from the 1960s above all four from the 1950s (#15-20 vs #27-62).

He usually favors guys he watched as a youth. Probably a slight timeline effect, too, as well as failing to schedule-adjust.

Wills and Pinson have in their favor is that they scored more votes against a stronger field.

I think this is fairly well conterbalanced by them being in a vote-for-nine election.

[Paul Wendt]

The one person I'm surprised to see in the top group is Gil Hodges. If so many people here support him, why is he nowhere near the SOC starters (#183 of the top 200 not in Cooperstown and outside of the top 10 at his position) or in the BBFHOF?

- The BBFHOF is a much more select group, only about 200 major league players, comparable only to the number of mlb players in the Coop. Recognizing a few more 1880s and 1980s players, it necessarily trims not expands representation of the classic decades.

- Very weak competition in the 1950s field, round one.
- Credit for managing the Mets, round one.

- The suburbs have been filled by a small group, more attuned to changing the Hall of Fame a little by attending to military service and slow integration.
- First base is a fielding position where many players come and go. Cal McVey, Dick Allen, and even Frank Howard take up "slots" in the suburbs while many of Gil Hodges passionate supporters probably believe in recognizing pure firstbasemen.

Despite all that explanation, I would have guessed that Minoso would lead round one here, maybe with a unanimous vote.

[Paul Wendt]

. . .
Other – Dark, Hodges and Kuenn were pennant-winning managers. E. Howard, Gilliam, Minoso and Newcombe had their careers hindered by color.
. . .
Extra credit for military service has been added to Boyer, E. Howard and Newcombe.

Kuenn - mgr 1.7yrs/160 wins
Newcombe - military, age 26-27

How much have you credited Newcombe for Korea and integration respectively?

Elsewhere I referred to slow integration.
The Dodgers assigned Newcombe and Campanella only to class A on the modern scale, partly because their AA farm was in the South; the A farm was Nashua, New Hampshire. Newcombe remained there for a second season. They had played professionally since their teens. Riley counts their major Negro Leagues debuts in 1937 and 1944.

[Freakshow]

How much have you credited Newcombe for Korea and integration respectively?

In this project I have attempted to estimate war credit. I have encouraged people to give Negro league and minor league credit, but I have not offered much in estimation of these.

So, Newc gets credit above for his age 26 and 27 seasons missed to military service, when he was one of the game's elite pitchers. I credited him with 42 win shares and 14.7 WARP3 for those two seasons.

There is a bit of discussion of Newcombe in the 1950's thread.

[leecemark]

--Put me down to Cash, Pinson and Elston Howard. I might have gone with Wills, but he has some negative managerial credit going for him. Dark is also not far off my 3 - none of whom I'm particularly enthusiastic about.

[Erik Bedard]

Cash, Pinson and ehhh... Howard.

[jalbright]

Wills, Pinson and either Howard or Cash.

[Paul Wendt]

In this project I have attempted to estimate war credit. I have encouraged people to give Negro league and minor league credit, but I have not offered much in estimation of these.

So, Newc gets credit above for his age 26 and 27 seasons missed to military service, when he was one of the game's elite pitchers. I credited him with 42 win shares and 14.7 WARP3 for those two seasons.

Oh, so the remainder of the +51 is 154-to-162 conversion credit.

In the same table, Elston Howard and Ken Boyer get only a little bit of Korean War credit, because they were not yet in the major leagues (I presume).

This gets ahead of the issue of the moment which is the honorable mentions.
I will vote for Minoso from the 1950s and maybe Newcombe, too.

Military service "credit": Don Newcombe in Korea

After missing two full seasons, Newcombe pitched poorly in 1954 and only 144 innings. Retrosheet shows that he did return in April, yielding 4 runs in a complete game April 14. It was the second game of the season --why not call it the "night opener"? That was the last time his ERA hit 4.00, unfortunately. In his third start he was knocked out after 1/3 inning, and knocked out after 1/3 inning in the Labor Day doubleheader too. He pitched only twice after that.
1954 Brooklyn Dodgers Game Log at Retrosheet (with links to team and thus player totals; and to box scores)

Because he didn't miss any time in the spring, I would "credit" only two seasons for Korea. On the other hand, I would not use 1954 to estimate his 1952-53 skill level either. If I were formally crediting military service, for a career total or for a peak measure, I would probably use 1950-51 and 55-56 as the basis for calculation. (Compare Eppa Rixey, whom I credit with prime seasons before and after WWI.)

[to be extended]

[Freakshow]

Oh, so the remainder of the +51 is 154-to-162 conversion credit.

Correct.

In the same table, Elston Howard and Ken Boyer get only a little bit of Korean War credit, because they were not yet in the major leagues (I presume).

Correct.

I would "credit" only two seasons for Korea. On the other hand, I would not use 1954 to estimate his 1952-53 skill level either. If I were formally crediting military service, for a career total or for a peak measure, I would probably use 1950-51 and 55-56 as the basis for calculation.

We almost agree. Since 1954 did happen, I didn't quite give him peak-level production for the two war years. Also, I have a general policy to avoid projecting peak years when giving extra credit. Instead, I gave him prime-level production, still really good years.

[Chadwick]

Pinson, Howard and "I don't care" after that. The rest are significantly weaker. Wills, I suppose.