Today's 300-home run hitters

[Cowtipper]

Of the twenty-two 300 home run hitters currently listed as 'active', which ones do you believe will one day make the Hall of Fame? These are all the 300 home run hitters currently active, along with their home runs, RBI and batting average:

Barry Bonds, 762 HR, 1996 RBI, .298 BA
Sammy Sosa, 609 HR, 1667 RBI, .273 BA
Ken Griffey, Jr., 594 HR, 1707 RBI, .290 BA
Alex Rodriguez, 520 HR, 1510 RBI, .310 BA
Frank Thomas, 516 HR, 1684 RBI, .302 BA
Jim Thome, 509 HR, 1404 RBI, .281 BA
Manny Ramirez, 491 HR, 1612 RBI, .313 BA
Gary Sheffield, 490 HR, 1577 RBI, .295 BA
Carlos Delgado, 432 HR, 1378 RBI, .281 BA
Mike Piazza, 427 HR, 1335 RBI, .308 BA
Chipper Jones, 387 HR, 1308 RBI, .307 BA
Andruw Jones, 368 HR, 1118 RBI, .262 BA
Vladimir Guerrero, 367 HR, 1186 RBI, .324 BA
Jeff Kent, 367 HR, 1465 RBI, .290 BA
Jason Giambi, 365 HR, 1186 RBI, .289 BA
Jim Edmonds, 362 HR, 1123 RBI, .287 BA
Luis Gonzalez, 347 HR, 1393 RBI, .284 BA
Moises Alou, 332 HR, 1278 RBI, .303 BA
Shawn Green, 328 HR, 1070 RBI, .283 BA
Todd Helton, 305 HR, 1091 RBI, .332 BA
Reggie Sanders, 305 HR, 983 RBI, .267 BA
Steve Finley, 304 HR, 1167 RBI, .271 BA

[Paul Wendt]

My current guess is half of them with
Sheffield and Delgado from the top half missing out,
Guerrero and Kent from the bottom half going in.

Regarding Sosa and Sheffield, where Sheffield has been the greater player, my guess that Sheffield will be the 500-hr pioneer (if he achieves 500) supposes that Sosa still has a lot of good will and Sheffield lacks the same.

If I were a voter my Sheffield hang-up would be his early admission that he played poorly in order to get traded out of Milwaukee. I would try to research that. Did he later say that it was one intentional error, which although deliberate might also be excused as passionate? What did contemporary observers say?

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

For power hitters, 400 homers and a decent batting average has traditionally been a guarantee for eventual election to the HOF. I don't think that will remain the case. 500 will probably become the new 400. Of course, if a player is not a first basemen or outfielder, the offensive standards are lower. At this writing, here's how I see it:

Will make the HOF:

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Alex Rodriguez
Frank Thomas
Jim Thome
Manny Ramirez
Mike Piazza
Andruw Jones
Chipper Jones
Vladimir Guerrero
Jeff Kent
Todd Helton

Are statistically qualified for the HOF, but steroid controversy may keep them out:

Barry Bonds
Sammy Sosa
Gary Sheffield

Won't make the HOF:

Carlos Delgado
Jason Giambi
Jim Edmonds
Luis Gonzalez
Moises Alou
Shawn Green
Reggie Sanders
Steve Finley

The two guys who are the most likely to switch groups are Andruw Jones and Carlos Delgado. If Jones can't regain his form, his chances could plummit, especially if his batting average falls any lower. Right now, though, he has a lot of homers and a lot of Gold Gloves for a 31 year old. If Delgado can hang on to get 500 homers, he'll probably get in. If he can't, his chances aren't good.

I suppose Helton could also suffer from an early decline. He's already declined from what he was five years ago. Fortunately for him, he seems to have leveled off at being a .300+ hitter with 15-20 HR power, a good OBP, plus solid defense and leadership. The Rockies are a new team, but he's their all-time franchise player/face of the organization, which I think will work in his favor. Kind of like George Brett in Kansas City, he's the greatest player in the history of a team without much history.

IMO opinion, Bonds should get in. No one should have any doubt that he has HOF talent. If you want to throw the character card at him, I guess I can't argue with that. Sosa and Sheffield have HOF numbers. I'm not 100% sure they would without steroids though. Their fate is anyone's guess.

[Paul Wendt]

Kind of like George Brett in Kansas City, [Todd Helton]'s the greatest player in the history of a team without much history.

Maybe he will play his way to Cooperstown but I don't believe that there is much "face of the franchise" opportunity for him.

First, the Rockies need to do a lot more to have as much history as the Royals had in GorgeousGeorge's day. If Helton plays ten more years with them, he will be 44 and the Rockies will be at the same 25-year point as the 1993 Royals. But the Royals were on the big screen three times during their first decade, fighting the Yankees in baseball's final four. The Rockies did make the playoffs quickly, but only once and only in the round of eight where no one gets so much attention as all four winning teams got in the two-division era. And then there are the 2007 sweeps. Unfortunately the Rockies did not get much time on the big screen as every other Series loser gets even today, because they won and lost too quickly. The 1985 Royals played 14 games in two rounds, the 2007 Rockiees only 11 games in three rounds.

Second, when the Royals did lose to the Yankees three years in a row, Brett was 23-25 years old, so he was a household name almost throughout his career. Helton was a not-so-endearing 34 last year.

[willshad]

In my opinion, Jim Edmonds has a much better case than Andruw Jones at this point....8 gold gloves and MUCH better offensively. I know its early, but Jones looks about done in LA. Edmonds doesnt have much left either, but has had a much better career IMO.
Whether Sheffield, Bonds, Thome, or Sosa make it depends if the steroid controversy has cooled by then. If Big Mac isnt in by then , I dont see any of them making it.
Griffey, Thomas, Piazza, and A-rod, Guerrero,and Kent are automatics.
Ramirez I dont think would make it if he retired today, or if he pulls an Andruw Jones. But with any type of normal decline he should. Ditto for Delgado and C. Jones.
The rest have no chance.

Are Sosa, Bonds, Piazza, Finley, and sanders still active?

[Fuzzy Bear]

I think Sheffield will make it, and I think he ought to.

I think Helton will get in as well; his road stats X 2 would put him in as a HOFer, plus, if he were playing at home in a park other than Coors, his road BA would be over .300.

[whoisonit]

Statistical milestones by players of this tainted era can no longer be used as the bench mark for inclusion to the hallowed Hall.
All batting records will have to be viewed in the context of this being a tainted era. ALL players, not just the caught and admitted, must be judged with skeptisism.
More emphasis will have to be placed on the players overall impact on the sport as well. Bonds, Sosa, Shefield, et al, do not deserve inshrinement.
Bonds, REGARDLESS of his worthiness during the period constantly refered to as "pre-steroid", (and when precisely is that date ?), harmed the game in the public's eye, mocked it's traditions, and rendered useless it's beloved and cherised statistical records. To then honor this man with a plaque is to spit in the face of living HOFers and urinate on the graves of those who have passed.

[leecemark]

--Many players in Cooperstown have moral issues of their own. It is not a gentleman's club.
--Cheating to make ones self better is a time honored tradition in baseball. I'm not saying that we should neccessarily take every number form thsi period at face value (I don't), but being a known or suspected PED user is not in and of itself a reason to exclude someone from the Hall of Fame. Bonds was the best player of his generation with or without PED's. He'd have my vote and I expect he'll find his way to the ballots of 75% of the voters - although he may be snubbed by more than that at first.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

In my opinion, Jim Edmonds has a much better case than Andruw Jones at this point....8 gold gloves and MUCH better offensively. I know its early, but Jones looks about done in LA. Edmonds doesnt have much left either, but has had a much better career IMO.

If Edmonds and Jones both retired right now, Edmonds would have a better case, but Edmonds is about to turn 38 and Jones just turned 31. If Jones can get back on track from 2007, he should easily surpass Edmonds over the next few years. That is a pretty big "if" though.

[whoisonit]

--Many players in Cooperstown have moral issues of their own. It is not a gentleman's club.

Very true. In fact, Landis should be removed for his iron fisted thwarting of any hint at signing a black ballplayer.

--Cheating to make ones self better is a time honored tradition in baseball.

Comparing Gaylord Perry and Bonds is akin to comparing a child sneaking a pre-dinner cookie to the financial devestation inflicted by Kenneth Lay and the thieves of Enron.

I'm not saying that we should neccessarily take every number form thsi period at face value (I don't), but being a known or suspected PED user is not in and of itself a reason to exclude someone from the Hall of Fame.

If you are a known user, (ie: caught or admitted), you would not get my vote, (if I had one !). As for 'suspected' - this is a troubling area. How do you explain a Jeff Kent ? Nothing more than a late bloomer ? Suddenly found a coach who unlocked the secret of hitting ? If I had a vote, I quess I would have to study the numbers, then just trust my instincts. It is a shame to have to say that. The number one culprit is;

Bonds was the best player of his generation with or without PED's. He'd have my vote and I expect he'll find his way to the ballots of 75% of the voters - although he may be snubbed by more than that at first.

Barry Bonds single handedly tipped the scales of baseball's sometimes debatable statistical integrity. No matter how 'clean' the game becomes in the future, his numbers jump off the page and slap the face of those who wish to revere the game. The grotesque spectacle of this man eclipsing 755 will have a long lasting impact on the sport.

I'll share a purely anecdotel story with you. As a young child, the most joyfull, anticipated, exciting sporting moment I ever expierienced was watching Henry Aaron hit 715 off Al Downing. To this day I can recall how I felt every moment of the at bat and the moments following it. Every kid in my suburban neighborhood was amazed at the historic event.
Last summer, being around a multitude of kids the same age, as well as some younger and some older, (I'm the director of a youth baseball program), all I heard was cynisim and negativity about Bonds and his cheating. It was sad, heartbreaking really, to witness first hand how Barry Bonds himself stole the innocence of these kids. The man repulses me.
Sadly, so many of these same kids absolutely worshiped Roger Clemens,(I live in NY). I guess whatever baseball-hero worship they retained after the Bonds atrocity was crushed this winter by Bond's pitching-equivalent, bookend in shame.
Can you honestly say this is good for the game ? That these men are worthy of honor ?
I can not.

[leecemark]

--I don't find Barry Bonds to be a particularly inspiring role model. Even without the PED issue his surly personality has never exactly made him a fan favorite, excpet perhaps for Giants fans. When a player is blessed with the talent that Bonds was - that most of us would give almost anything for - I'd like to see him enjoy it more. My favorite players are all ones who obviously are happy to be playing baseball. For Bonds it has always seemed more like a job that he doesn't really like.
--Really though is it fair to single him out on the steroid issue? Hundreds, maybe even thousands, of players have used steroids over the past 20 years. It has been rampant in the game and the guys we know (or think we know) to have used are just the tip of the iceberg. The difference with Bonds is a) he was already a freakishly great player before he started using and so his enhanced performance is at a level rarely (never?) seen before, b) his work ethic and access to the BALCO labs allowed him to gain even more (maybe) from PED use than the average player and c) his relationship with the media (and he has to accept much of the blame for this) is so bad they find it easy to demonize him - as do the fans who rely on the media to get to "know" a player.
--Bonds was not at the forfront of the PED plague. By most accounts he first became interested because players who could not legitimately claim to be anywhere near as good as he was were stealing the limelight. This may not be admirable, but it is surely understandable. Who of us has not been in a situation where others are getting ahead by bending the rules and been tempted to follow that path?

[whoisonit]

.

--Really though is it fair to single him out on the steroid issue? Hundreds, maybe even thousands, of players have used steroids over the past 20 years. It has been rampant in the game and the guys we know (or think we know) to have used are just the tip of the iceberg.[

Well, I did say all players of this era. But Bonds, like McGwire, cheated to some very special marks. The bigger the record, the greater the contempt, to some degree. The last 12 or so years of Clemens record ? Not worth the paper his card is made with. Sosa and his 600 ? As valuable as monopoly money.

The difference with Bonds is a) he was already a freakishly great player before he started using and so his enhanced performance is at a level rarely (never?) seen before, b) his work ethic and access to the BALCO labs allowed him to gain even more (maybe) from PED use than the average player and

Suppose you've been a model employee for 10 years. Hard working, well organized, reliable, strong producer. Then you figure out a way to minipulate the books, and begin embezeling. You're still a hard worker,(maybe more so because now you have more to do, ie:steal), still dependable and a strong producer. Then you get caught, your crimes are apparent. When you leave the office for the last time, should the boss still through you a party and give you a gold watch, maybe some golf clubs ?
NO ! Not only will you be prosecuted, as you should be, you'll probably have to give back the money you stole.

--Bonds was not at the forfront of the PED plague. By most accounts he first became interested because players who could not legitimately claim to be anywhere near as good as he was were stealing the limelight. This may not be admirable, but it is surely understandable. Who of us has not been in a situation where others are getting ahead by bending the rules and been tempted to follow that path?

One cannot excuse crimes by saying 'everybody else was doing it'. Did you're parents ever say 'if everybody was jumping off a bridge, that doesn't mean I'll let you do it too", or something to that effect ? What kind of values do we have if it's just a matter of 'everybody doing it' or 'don't get caught' ? Do we no longer have a moral code in this nation that places value on honesty and integrity ? Have we really devalued our values to the point were we say 'no big deal' to lying, cheating, stealing ?
As for temptation, we are all tempted by things every day. That doesn't make it acceptable to act on our every whim and impulse. Maybe I'm tempted by my nieghbor. Should I ruin her family and my own to satisfy my desires ? If I find a wallet in the street full of cash, would I not have the fleetingest thought of pocketing it ? So what then, if I did it would be ok because I was tempted and it gave me a chance to buy a plasme tv as nice as my nieghbor ?
Where do you draw the line at right and wrong, leecemark ?

[jjpm74]

I think in the case of Sheffield, it will depend on how he does this year and next year and whether or not he can keep his mouth shut. He tends to cause controversy wherever he goes and it's this controversy that tends to keep bubble guys like him, Kenny Lofton, Dick Allen, et. al. out of Cooperstown.

It's a lot easier to overlook a player's attitude when they are one of the best ever (Henderson, Cobb) than it is to do so when they are at even odds to get into Cooperstown.

Of the list above, Sosa is the least likely to make it. Bonds will probably get in eventually, but probably not as a 1st time ballot guy.

The one with the least HRs on that list who has a chance to get in is Todd Helton.

We'd be talking about Moises Alou is a HOFer if he wasn't made of glass.

Steve Finley is good enough to last a full 15 years on the ballot.

Delgado has an outside chance with a few more good seasons.

Giambi, Edmonds, Gonzalez, Green, Sanders don't have a chance.

[leecemark]

--Whoisonit, your example of an employee that steals from his employers doesn't work very well for Bonds. His employers benefited from his PED use. I don't even know that baseball as a whole didn't benefit. Certianly baseball and the Giants were aware that steroids were playing an ever growing role in the game but did nothing until their hand was forced.
-- Is attendance not a record levels in the steroid age? Is the game not more popular and profitable than ever - fueled largely by the HR boom? Sure people complain about it - I don't like this brand of baseball or the distorted records of the past 10-15 years myself. They keep coming out to the park though. A borderline guy with a PED taint probably wouldn't get my support. A guy who is miles over the Hall of Fame border like Bonds or Clemens I can't see keeping out.

[Skin & Bones]

Comparing Gaylord Perry and Bonds is akin to comparing a child sneaking a pre-dinner cookie to the financial devestation inflicted by Kenneth Lay and the thieves of Enron.

This is such a cop out, and not even backed up by the facts.