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Last fall a committee of 16 including 7 HOF players and 2 HOF managers recently elected managers Billy Southworth and Dick Williams from a ballot of ten managers and umpires. They wil be inducted this summer.
What may we expect for managers and umpires in the future?
At the next scheduled election in December 2009 both manager White Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey will be elected unless there is a significant change of committee membership or change of mind by some members, plural.
Each of the 16 committee members was permitted to vote for four of ten candidates on the ballot. At least ten of them voted for four; only six of 64 possible votes were either cast for the four also-rans or not cast at all. We know that because six candidates scored 58 votes total; we don't know more because support for the also-rans was reported only as "less than three".
Quoting from wikipedia "Baseball Hall of Fame balloting, 2008":
Harvey and Herzog missed only ten votes between them. That was at most six true rejections by people who voted for only three candidates and at least four "no votes" from people who voted for four others. The election of Southworth and Williams frees at least 14 votes on the ballots of people who voted for four, almost certainly including some latent Herzog and Harvey supporters.
Under the circumstances the showings by Murtaugh and O'Day are quite strong. The Historical Overview Committee should feel obliged to put them back on the next ballot, along with Herzog and Harvey, where it is likely that they too will gain votes freed from Southworth and Williams.
Even if the committee membership changes significantly, the recent results bode well for Herzog and Harvey, and for managers and umpires in general. The pool from which the Board of Directors appointed the current committee surely includes many others who will be inclined to cast all their votes, as long as they are permitted only four and the ballot comprises a well-chosen top ten.
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Who is likely to be nominated?
The Overviewers should nominate 2 to 6 new candidates to join 4-8 incumbents. There were four important managers on the preceding (winter 2007) contributors ballot: Williams, Herzog, Martin, and manager-gm Paul Richards. Because he is not a good fit for either of the managers/umpires and executives processes that have replaced the contributors, Richards may be left out now. (He had scored 10 contributor votes to 12 for Martin.)
There was only one umpire on the preceding contributors ballot: Harvey, the leader in that election with almost 65%.
This time the Overviewers named 12 from among the 32 managers and umpires whom they had nominated for 2003 or 2007. They did a great job in naming Southworth and Murtaugh and O'Day from the majority (27) who did not previously make the final ballot.
Although also-ran managers Martin, Mauch, Johnson, and umpire Rigler scored poorly, the resounding support for the four leaders suggests to me that the Overviewers should renominate all 8 incumbents. They should nominate the most prominent manager who retires, dies, or turns 65 by next summer. If there is a second such newly eligible manager, or a comparable umpire, nominate him. If not, return Paul Richards to the ballot.
add: Someone should survey a large number players and managers with at least moderately long careers in the 1940s-1990s in order to learn who they consider the very best umpires of their times.
What may we expect for managers and umpires in the future?
At the next scheduled election in December 2009 both manager White Herzog and umpire Doug Harvey will be elected unless there is a significant change of committee membership or change of mind by some members, plural.
Each of the 16 committee members was permitted to vote for four of ten candidates on the ballot. At least ten of them voted for four; only six of 64 possible votes were either cast for the four also-rans or not cast at all. We know that because six candidates scored 58 votes total; we don't know more because support for the also-rans was reported only as "less than three".
Quoting from wikipedia "Baseball Hall of Fame balloting, 2008":
Code:
* [B]Billy Southworth[/B] (M) - 13
* [B]Dick Williams (M)[/B] - 13
* Doug Harvey (U) - 11
* Whitey Herzog (M) - 11
* Danny Murtaugh (M) - 6
* Hank O'Day (U) - 4
* Davey Johnson (M) - <3
* Billy Martin (M) - <3
* Gene Mauch (M) - <3
* Cy Rigler (U) - <3
Under the circumstances the showings by Murtaugh and O'Day are quite strong. The Historical Overview Committee should feel obliged to put them back on the next ballot, along with Herzog and Harvey, where it is likely that they too will gain votes freed from Southworth and Williams.
Even if the committee membership changes significantly, the recent results bode well for Herzog and Harvey, and for managers and umpires in general. The pool from which the Board of Directors appointed the current committee surely includes many others who will be inclined to cast all their votes, as long as they are permitted only four and the ballot comprises a well-chosen top ten.
--
Who is likely to be nominated?
The Overviewers should nominate 2 to 6 new candidates to join 4-8 incumbents. There were four important managers on the preceding (winter 2007) contributors ballot: Williams, Herzog, Martin, and manager-gm Paul Richards. Because he is not a good fit for either of the managers/umpires and executives processes that have replaced the contributors, Richards may be left out now. (He had scored 10 contributor votes to 12 for Martin.)
There was only one umpire on the preceding contributors ballot: Harvey, the leader in that election with almost 65%.
This time the Overviewers named 12 from among the 32 managers and umpires whom they had nominated for 2003 or 2007. They did a great job in naming Southworth and Murtaugh and O'Day from the majority (27) who did not previously make the final ballot.
Although also-ran managers Martin, Mauch, Johnson, and umpire Rigler scored poorly, the resounding support for the four leaders suggests to me that the Overviewers should renominate all 8 incumbents. They should nominate the most prominent manager who retires, dies, or turns 65 by next summer. If there is a second such newly eligible manager, or a comparable umpire, nominate him. If not, return Paul Richards to the ballot.
add: Someone should survey a large number players and managers with at least moderately long careers in the 1940s-1990s in order to learn who they consider the very best umpires of their times.
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