Trevor Hoffman

[Bothrops Atrox]

I can't wait until the only statistic baseball cards list on the back is WAR. Clearly it is the only one of any importance.

Considering advanced sabermetrics (FIP) are on the cover of this weeks SI, frequent ESPN and MLB network, and are on MLB video games, WAR (or a different advanced stat) could find itself on baseball cards someday, you never know. 20 year from now, they may be looked at the same way WHIP was when it was first put on the back of baseball cards.

And since WPA, IP, saves, an Pitcher Wins have all been talked about or listed in this thread, your comment is quite peculiar.

Check out WPA - a sabermetric stat that traditionalists (in theory) should love.

[Cowtipper]

I can't wait until the only statistic baseball cards list on the back is WAR. Clearly it is the only one of any importance.

[Cougar]

OK, pitchers from the earlier list with WPA and PitchingWins:

Rk                Player  WAR    WPA PitchW     IP
1         Mariano Rivera 56.2 53.971  30.82 1210.0
2         Trevor Hoffman 30.8 34.320  15.20 1089.1
3              Lee Smith 30.3 21.409  14.32 1289.1
4           Billy Wagner 29.7 29.172  19.74  903.0
5            John Franco 25.8 19.273  14.53 1245.2
6              Tom Henke 23.1 21.410  13.79  789.2
7    Francisco Rodriguez 22.6 22.895  12.62  645.0
8             Joe Nathan 22.2 25.653  12.15  727.2
9             Doug Jones 21.5 13.769  11.72 1128.1
10         Rick Aguilera 21.3  8.351   8.64 1291.1
11         Dave Righetti 21.3 14.634   7.58 1386.1
12       Jeff Montgomery 21.1 15.837  10.94  868.2
13     Francisco Cordero 21.1 12.648  11.28  782.1
14        John Wetteland 20.8 18.926  10.90  765.0
15          Jesse Orosco 20.7 14.387  12.38 1260.1
16      Dennis Eckersley 16.6 16.286  10.49  789.2

It would add some useful context to see how Wilhelm, Fingers, Sutter, and Gossage, perhaps along with some favorite near-misses or hobby horses like Quisenberry, Tekulve, Hiller, etc. stack up to the post 1995 retirees.

[J W]

Everyone is way behind Rivera though. I agree with the Dude; Hoffman, Smith and Wagner round out that list well and compliment the existing relief pitchers in the Hall. Granted, some people don't like Fingers or Sutter anymore.

[Bothrops Atrox]

OK, pitchers from the earlier list with WPA and PitchingWins:

Rk                Player  WAR    WPA PitchW     IP
1         Mariano Rivera 56.2 53.971  30.82 1210.0
2         Trevor Hoffman 30.8 34.320  15.20 1089.1
3              Lee Smith 30.3 21.409  14.32 1289.1
4           Billy Wagner 29.7 29.172  19.74  903.0
5            John Franco 25.8 19.273  14.53 1245.2
6              Tom Henke 23.1 21.410  13.79  789.2
7    Francisco Rodriguez 22.6 22.895  12.62  645.0
8             Joe Nathan 22.2 25.653  12.15  727.2
9             Doug Jones 21.5 13.769  11.72 1128.1
10         Rick Aguilera 21.3  8.351   8.64 1291.1
11         Dave Righetti 21.3 14.634   7.58 1386.1
12       Jeff Montgomery 21.1 15.837  10.94  868.2
13     Francisco Cordero 21.1 12.648  11.28  782.1
14        John Wetteland 20.8 18.926  10.90  765.0
15          Jesse Orosco 20.7 14.387  12.38 1260.1
16      Dennis Eckersley 16.6 16.286  10.49  789.2

I stand corrected regarding Hoffman's WPA. Either way, both are way behind Rivera, but ahead of everyone else on the list.

[Freakshow]

WAR should only be looked for closers with WPA as an accompaniment. Hoffman lags behind in WAR compared to River, for example, but is only a little behind Rivera in WPA . Verdict? A very borderline HOFer, at best, IMO.

OK, pitchers from the earlier list with WPA and PitchingWins:

Rk                Player  WAR    WPA PitchW     IP
1         Mariano Rivera 56.2 53.971  30.82 1210.0
2         Trevor Hoffman 30.8 34.320  15.20 1089.1
3              Lee Smith 30.3 21.409  14.32 1289.1
4           Billy Wagner 29.7 29.172  19.74  903.0
5            John Franco 25.8 19.273  14.53 1245.2
6              Tom Henke 23.1 21.410  13.79  789.2
7    Francisco Rodriguez 22.6 22.895  12.62  645.0
8             Joe Nathan 22.2 25.653  12.15  727.2
9             Doug Jones 21.5 13.769  11.72 1128.1
10         Rick Aguilera 21.3  8.351   8.64 1291.1
11         Dave Righetti 21.3 14.634   7.58 1386.1
12       Jeff Montgomery 21.1 15.837  10.94  868.2
13     Francisco Cordero 21.1 12.648  11.28  782.1
14        John Wetteland 20.8 18.926  10.90  765.0
15          Jesse Orosco 20.7 14.387  12.38 1260.1
16      Dennis Eckersley 16.6 16.286  10.49  789.2

[Bothrops Atrox]

WAR has hoffman clearly and by far out of the hall. Hoffman only got about 30 WAR.

I would have felt better with him though last night against the mets I threw my computer mouse against the wall. what a pathetic effort.

While I think that closers are often overrated it is very apparent that a good bullpen is needed to win it all in these days. most championship teams have a great bullpen. A good bullpen not only shuts out the last 3 innings but more importantly also gives the starters confidence nd demoralizes the opponents hitters. I can't think of a championship team team with a bad bullpen.

But I think the bullpen as a whole is important not so much the closer as a single position.

WAR should only be looked for closers with WPA as an accompaniment. Hoffman lags behind in WAR compared to River, for example, but is only a little behind Rivera in WPA . Verdict? A very borderline HOFer, at best, IMO.

[dominik]

Interesting how WAR worked out well here for my rankings. I have Rivera, Hoffman, Smith, and Wagner Ll
All being worthy of the HoF and Franco and Henke being borderline, probably on the outside.

WAR has hoffman clearly and by far out of the hall. Hoffman only got about 30 WAR.

I would have felt better with him though last night against the mets I threw my computer mouse against the wall. what a pathetic effort.

While I think that closers are often overrated it is very apparent that a good bullpen is needed to win it all in these days. most championship teams have a great bullpen. A good bullpen not only shuts out the last 3 innings but more importantly also gives the starters confidence nd demoralizes the opponents hitters. I can't think of a championship team team with a bad bullpen.

But I think the bullpen as a whole is important not so much the closer as a single position.

[The Dude]

Interesting how WAR worked out well here for my rankings. I have Rivera, Hoffman, Smith, and Wagner Ll
All being worthy of the HoF and Franco and Henke being borderline, probably on the outside.

[Freakshow]

Most pitching WAR, retired 1995+, <100 GS

Rk                Player  WAR ERA+  SV GS     IP From   To   Age    G SHO  GF  W  L  BB   SO  ERA
1         Mariano Rivera 56.1  206 603 10 1210.0 1995 2011 25-41 1040   0 882 75 57 274 1109 2.22
2         Trevor Hoffman 30.8  141 601  0 1089.1 1993 2010 25-42 1035   0 856 61 75 307 1133 2.87
3              Lee Smith 30.3  132 478  6 1289.1 1980 1997 22-39 1022   0 802 71 92 486 1251 3.03
4           Billy Wagner 29.7  187 422  0  903.0 1995 2010 23-38  853   0 703 47 40 300 1196 2.31
5            John Franco 25.8  138 424  0 1245.2 1984 2005 23-44 1119   0 774 90 87 495  975 2.89
6              Tom Henke 23.1  157 311  0  789.2 1982 1995 24-37  642   0 548 41 42 255  861 2.67
7    Francisco Rodriguez 22.6  171 291  0  645.0 2002 2011 20-29  600   0 445 35 27 282  800 2.53
8             Joe Nathan 22.1  152 260 29  726.2 1999 2011 24-36  578   0 405 47 23 275  759 2.86
9             Doug Jones 21.5  129 303  4 1128.1 1982 2000 25-43  846   0 640 69 79 247  909 3.30
10         Rick Aguilera 21.3  118 318 89 1291.1 1985 2000 23-38  732   0 557 86 81 351 1030 3.57
11         Dave Righetti 21.3  114 252 86 1386.1 1981 1995 22-36  715   2 474 82 78 581 1099 3.46
12       Jeff Montgomery 21.1  135 304  1  868.2 1987 1999 25-37  700   0 549 46 52 296  733 3.27
13     Francisco Cordero 21.1  145 324  0  782.1 1999 2011 24-36  750   0 554 44 45 352  763 3.18
14        John Wetteland 20.8  149 330 17  765.0 1989 2000 22-33  618   0 523 48 45 252  804 2.93
15          Jesse Orosco 20.7  128 144  2 1260.1 1981 2003 24-46 1234   0 495 86 78 559 1157 3.11
16      Dennis Eckersley 16.6  137 387  2  789.2 1987 1998 32-43  695   0 569 46 43 114  774 2.96

I plugged in the second half of Eckersley's career for comparison.

[Bravesfan1984]

Changes to the game created the job of closer. They get paid a lot, and they are big parts of the game both on the field, in the clubhouse, and on the payroll. Teams which have good closers function differently late in the game when the score is close than those who do not have good closers. Men of quality who fill that role pretty well have numbers which look like Tug McGraw, or heck even Mean Gene Garber.

But players who are REALLY good, with some great moments, have stats which look like Rivera and Hoffman. I would have to think that we should reward that with a HOF nod. Just as Gossage was better than Dave Smith, I would have to think the difference between Trevor Hoffman and and Jose Mesa has to be respected and used as the difference between someone who is either in or out of the Hall of Fame.

The gap between Hoffman and Isringhausen is wider than the gap beween Dave Winfield and Jim Rice (for example).

What great moments did Hoffman have? I can think of a lot of great moments for Rivera but none for Hoffman. Hoffman is more of a stat compiler then a great player. Did you ever when Hoffman was playing say wow that guy is a sure Hall of Famer because I never did nor heard anyone else say it.

[jjpm74]

Wow. It's funny going back and reading this whole thread after I started it 6 years ago.

A few points in summation:
-A number of people said he wasn't deserving until Gossage & Sutter were in. Both have been elected.
-I saw a few posts where they felt he might be hall worthy, but wanted to see him eclipse 1K IP. He did.
-As a number of people said, he would shatter the old record. He finished with 123 saves more than Smith.
-500 was mentioned as the "magic number" for closers. There isn't any real precedence for 1IP closers, but I don't know if 500 will get it done. However, when you look at the nearest active guys to Rivera & Hoffman, it's almost 300 saves and nobody really looks like a contender for hitting 500 again (Francisco Cordero is 177 away, but 36 years old).

Out of active relievers, Papelbon has 218 saves and is 31. Pitching 9 more seasons and averaging 30 saves a season is not out of the question for him.

Wherever Rivera ends up when he hangs it up (my guess is somewhere in the vicinity of 750 saves), it will be a long time before anyone comes close to his saves record. It will be a generation before anyone gets to 600 saves which is a nod in Hoffman's favor. What Hoffman has against him is that he stuck around just to get to 600 saves. His last season, he was 2-7 with an ERA of 5.89, an ERA+ of 69 in 50 games in his final MLB season. Some writers might hold this against Hoffman.

[dominik]

I think he has a very good chance. If you look at WAR is doesn't deserve induction of course (he's got 30 WAR-deserving HOFers usually have well over 50) but I do think after a couple of relievers have been inducted his chances are raised. yes mariano passing him might not be good but marino is an icon. voters might just as well say "oh he is second just to the great mario so let's get him in if other relievers are in".

He is far from being a lock and it could go either way but with so many steroid suspects out there he might have shot (bcause he was no real power pitcher and thus not really suspect).

[The Dude]

Wow. It's funny going back and reading this whole thread after I started it 6 years ago.

A few points in summation:
-A number of people said he wasn't deserving until Gossage & Sutter were in. Both have been elected.
-I saw a few posts where they felt he might be hall worthy, but wanted to see him eclipse 1K IP. He did.
-As a number of people said, he would shatter the old record. He finished with 123 saves more than Smith.
-500 was mentioned as the "magic number" for closers. There isn't any real precedence for 1IP closers, but I don't know if 500 will get it done. However, when you look at the nearest active guys to Rivera & Hoffman, it's almost 300 saves and nobody really looks like a contender for hitting 500 again (Francisco Cordero is 177 away, but 36 years old).

[Bothrops Atrox]

Does anybody think it's posible that Rivera eclipsing Hoffman will cause Trevor to not be elected? I'm neither predicting or advocating that, I just wanted to ask the question. There is precedent: the very minute Hoffman passed Lee Smith almost all of Lee's support vanished like breath off of a razor blade.

I doubt that will happen because most writers have had a long love affair with Hoffman, in spite of his checkered record in important games. I would guess that this doesn't even delay him very much but I still wanted to suggest the possibility.

I think that is a real possibility. I would have put Hoffman's HOF chances over 75% last year, but maybe 50-50 after today. It may not be fair, but I think that is the reality.