The Ultimate Quest for Candidates: Round 2 – The 1970's

[Freakshow]

Welcome to The Ultimate Quest for Candidates – Round 2. This thread will have the fifth poll in the second round, combining the leading players from the polls for the early 1970’s and the late 1970’s. Refer to the earlier threads for discussion and links to biographies.

There will be 14 players on the ballot. You will be asked to vote for 5 (FIVE) players. These 11 players automatically advanced to this round by their top finishes in the Round 1 polls:

95% Ted Simmons
93% Bert Blyleven
83% Bobby Bonds
72% Tommy John
67% Luis Tiant
64% Dave Parker
62% Darrell Evans
62% Bobby Grich
61% Thurman Munson
61% Reggie Smith
52% Graig Nettles

We need to decide who will get the other three spots on the ballot. There are nine runners-up who are under consideration:

50% Sal Bando
39% Sparky Lyle
38% Dave Concepcion
33% Rusty Staub
33% Steve Garvey
19% Fred Lynn
17% Bert Campaneris
14% Ron Cey
14% Ken Singleton

My personal picks are probably Staub, Concepcion and Singleton. Your input on this issue is strongly requested as we look to develop a consensus.

Below are the players we voted as the top 20 HOF candidates whose careers centered in the 1970’s.

Pos	BJ	Player Name	 Win Shares	 WARP3	              Car WS Adj
1	#39	Bert Blyleven	(346: 29-23-23)	(145.8: 12.8-10.5-10.3)	+7
9	#15	Bobby	Bonds	(305: 32-32-31)	(92.0: 10.6-9.5-9.0)	+3
5/3	#10	Darrell	Evans	(371: 31-28-28)	(107.9: 12.0-10.2-8.0)	+8
4	#12	Bobby	Grich	(339: 32-31-30)	(121.1: 11.7-11.3-10.5)	+10
1	#63	Tommy	John	(295: 23-19-19)	(105.7: 8.5-8.5-6.8)	+6
2	#14	Thurman	Munson	(207: 26-25-24)	(69.9: 9.4-9.2-7.7)	+1
5	#13	Graig	Nettles	(328: 28-27-26)	(103.1: 11.0-9.0-8.8)	+6
9	#14	Dave	Parker	(331: 37-33-31)	(82.1: 10.5-8.9-8.1)	+4
2	#10	Ted	Simmons	(321: 30-28-28)	(93.1: 8.7-8.2-8.1)	+6
9/8	#20	Reggie	Smith	(326: 29-29-27)	(88.8: 9.9-9.0-7.9)	+1
1	#52	Luis	Tiant	(258: 29-28-22)	(100.0: 10.7-9.4-8.6)	+2
						
5	#11	[B]Sal	Bando[/B]	(285: 36-31-29)	(82.1: 9.2-8.7-8.1)	+2
6	#25	Bert Campaneris	(282: 29-26-22)	(101.9: 10.3-9.8-9.8)	+2
5	#16	Ron	Cey	(287: 27-27-25)	(94.8: 10.9-9.4-9.3)	+7
6	#26	[B]Dave Concepcion[/B]	(278: 29-25-25)	(106.0: 10.7-9.9-9.7)	+9
3	#31	Steve	Garvey	(286: 27-26-25)	(76.8: 7.7-7.7-7.2)	+7
1	---	[B]Sparky	Lyle[/B]	(164: 20-19-16)	(59.8: 7.0-6.9-6.0)	+3
8	#17	Fred	Lynn	(284: 34-33-27)	(80.9: 10.9-8.7-8.1)	+4
9	#18	Ken Singleton	(311: 36-33-32)	(87.1: 10.8-10.5-8.8)	+8
9	#24	Rusty	Staub	(361: 32-30-28)	(93.8: 9.2-8.0-7.0)	+3

Pos – primary position(s)
BJ – rank at his position in the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001)
Win Shares – shown are career total and best 3 years
WARP3 – from Baseball Prospectus; shown are career total and best 3 years
Other –

Some other things to be aware of:
1) Bill James’ rankings emphasize players’ peak years; this results in long steady careers being rated lower than what may seem right.
2) Win shares in strike seasons 1972 and 1981 are increased to adjust them to a 162-game season. In addition, 1981 has been gently regressed for surrounding seasons.
3) You are free to credit players with minor league or foreign league play. Reggie Smith had play in Japan.
4) The latest WARP3 update has lower numbers for these players than are shown in the Round 1 threads.

That leaves 13 players that dropped out of consideration after Round 1: Cesar Cedeno, George Foster, Jerry Koosman, Mickey Lolich, Greg Luzinski, Bobby Murcer, Al Oliver, Amos Otis, Darrell Porter, Rick Reuschel, Gene Tenace, Roy White and Wilbur Wood. Each of these candidates drew less than 12% support.

[jalbright]

I think Bando, with 50% support, should be one of the three. He's the only one of the guys outside the top 11 I support for the Hall. I'm not enthused about any of the remaining guys for those last two spots. Even so, Sal might be the unlucky guy to fall to sixth place.

[leecemark]

--Bando, Conception (best SS of a 20 year period) and Lynn are my suggestions. Not that I actually endorse any of them.

[jjpm74]

I'd go with Lyle, Concepcion and Lynn. I really don't understand the support for Sal Bando. His OPS+ was average. He is nowhere near in black ink or gray ink. His HOF standards are well short, he has 4 out of 12 sub .250 full time seasons, none of his most similars are HOFers and only 1 of them even shows up in HOF conversations. He has zero gold gloves, only 4 All Star appearances. His post season contributions were basic, and he wasn't the best player even on his own team by a longshot.

[Paul Wendt]

Bando, Lyle, Staub, and Campaneris enjoyed a softer field in round one. That's the reason not to lean much on the round one vote, but 50% is so big a number in this context, you should be reluctant to gainsay it.

Among them I think Lyle is most likely to hold onto a few of his votes in round two, because he is a different type whereas we may anticipate that Bando will be third of three 3Bs and Staub fourth of four OFs, all at least plurality RFs.

Staub does have a lot more win shares than anyone else and presumably a lot more of some basic counting statistics. Probably he and Concepcion are the most deserving traditional candidates.

Bill James ranks Bando higher at his position (11th) than anyone else from the early 1970s poll and higher than all but Simmons and Evans (both 10th) from the other half. I wouldn't give BJ more than one vote but maybe give him one to put Bando at 55%. It's too much.

I don't think you need to be equally reluctant to go against the meager 14% and advance Singleton, although you should hear from some of his supporters. I didn't vote for him but I would have in the other half (ahead of Staub, Bando, Tiant, maybe Lyle and Munson, so I have him about 3rd in A and 7th in B). Among those under discussion, he is second to Staub in win shares and first in support at the Hall of Merit. On the other hand, he would be the fifth plurality-RF. As for Staub, I believe, it's a matter of judging that he is deserving, if that's what you want to do, not that he is likely to keep his meager support. (Without a campaign for him, no way. Bonds and Smith are sabrmetric RF candidates, like Singleton, and they played some CF. Parker beat him badly in the first round and will hold some peak votes, I presume.)

I voted for Lyle and Concepcion --the only shortstop, also likely to hold some of his votes. It's possible I'll vote for none of the 3-5 RFs in round two. I can't go further than recommend Bando plus two of the four: Lyle, Concepcion, Staub, Singleton.

[dgarza]

Lynn, Lyle, and Garvey are my 3 suggestions.

[Erik Bedard]

Bando, Lynn, and Singleton would be the three I'd keep.

[Freakshow]

Ken Singleton was better than Fred Lynn.

By win shares, best 14 years:

KS FL
36 34
33 33
32 27
28 22
28 22
27 21
24 19
23 16
19 16
17 15
16 14
12 11
11 09
05 09

By WARP3, best 14 years:

KS...FL
10.8 10.9
10.5 8.7
8.8 8.1
8.5 6.5
8.3 6.4
6.7 6.3
6.6 5.5
6.6 4.4
5.3 4.0
4.9 4.0
3.6 3.6
3.3 3.2
2.4 3.0
1.5 2.5

[Paul Wendt]

Here they are by fielding position --everyone on the prelminary ballot, to be revised. Eleven round winners and nine honorable mentions under discussion are distinguished by layout and typography.

LF		CF		RF
--		Smith*		Bonds
				Parker

3B		SS		2B		1B
Evans (1b)	Concepcion	Grich		--
Nettles
Bando

P		RP
Blyleven	Lyle
John
Tiant

C
Munson
Simmons

*Smith played more in right than in center, much as did Andre Dawson in a longer career.

[Windy City Fan]

Bando definately, as I actually support his election to the Hall. Concepcion is another pretty easy choice, as he was the best SS of his era and is at least worthy of consideration. The last spot is a little more dicey, but I lean towards either Lyle or Lynn.

[BlueBlood]

Bando, Concepcion, Staub. Wasn't too hard this time around.

[Cougar]

Concepcion, Campaneris, and Sparky Lyle.

Staub and Garvey are runners-up

[Chadwick]

Concepcion, Garvey and Lyle.

I know Garvey's statistical value doesn't measure up but he was so highly regarded in his own day that it just doesn't seem right to exclude him from a ballot that might contain names like Staub or Singleton.

[Paul Wendt]

bbwaa support

Our message is clear, FS.
Don't take Cey.
Don't take Campaneris unless you take Concepcion too.
Your task is to find more consensus than that.
--

Who enjoyed some support from the writers?

Garvey, once above 40, slipped to 20.

Concepcion, once below 10%, now over 15.

Lyle, once over 10%, slipped below 5.

Staub, over 5% until year seven.

Lynn, over 5% momentarily.

Campy, one and out.
Cey, one and out.
Bando, one and out.
Singleton, the best player to get no votes.

Call that quartet 3-2-1-0.

[Cougar]

Don't take Campaneris unless you take Concepcion too.

Thanks, Paul.

If you use the neutralize function in B-R.com to "equalize" Campaneris' stats (heavily weighted down by the 60's and the Coliseum) with Concepcion's, the results are very close.

I know there are legitimate methodological beefs with the neutralization technique, but even with a grain of salt, it's striking. See the attachment to save yourself the clicking around B-R.

Campaneris doesn't get his due as every bit the key to the Oakland dynasty as Concepcion was to the Big Red Machine. They were different sorts of players, but of essentially equal value.