The Ultimate Quest for Candidates: Round 3 – 1910s/20s/30s/40s

[Freakshow]

Welcome to The Ultimate Quest for Candidates – Round 3. This thread will have the first poll in the third round, combining the leading players from the polls for the 1910’s-20’s and the 1930’s-40’s. Refer to the Round 1 threads for discussion and links to biographies.

There will be 13 players on the ballot. You will be asked to vote for 4 (FOUR) players. These 10 players automatically advanced to this round by their top finishes in the Round 2 polls:

Rd.1 Rd.2
83% 85% Stan Hack
80% 85% Carl Mays
86% 85% Sherry Magee
83% 80% Wes Ferrell
79% 75% Joe Gordon
82% 70% Heinie Groh
75% 65% Larry Doyle
72% 43% Wally Schang
79% 40% Wally Berger
72% 35% Vern Stephens

We need to decide who will get the other three spots on the ballot. There are nine runners-up who are under consideration:

61% 32% Gavy Cravath
45% 30% Charlie Keller
36% 30% Lefty O'Doul
54% 25% Wilbur Cooper
65% 25% Bob Johnson
45% 25% Mickey Vernon
36% 20% Babe Adams
80% 18% Urban Shocker
65% 20% Tommy Bridges

My personal picks are Keller for sure and probably Cravath and O’Doul. Your input on this issue is strongly requested as we look to develop a consensus.

Below are the players we voted as the top 19 HOF candidates whose careers centered from 1910 to 1949.

Pos	BJ	 Player Name	 Win Shares	 WARP3
8	#13	Wally	Berger	(241: 36-33-31)	(68.9: 10.5-9.9-8.7)
4	#20	Larry	Doyle	(292: 33-29-28)	(67.8: 7.2-7.0-6.7)
1	#40	Wes	Ferrell	(233: 35-32-28)	(80.4: 13.2-11.7-9.9)
4	#16	Joe	Gordon	(286: 30-26-26)	(112.1: 11.5-11.1-10.6)
5	#21	Heinie	Groh	(277: 37-33-30)	(89.6: 11.0-10.0-9.9)
5	#9	Stan	Hack	(309: 33-30-30)	(100.3: 10.9-10.2-9.7)
7	#21	Sherry	Magee	(356: 38-36-31)	(87.8: 10.2-8.5-8.0)
1	#38	Carl	Mays	(256: 35-30-27)	(65.8: 8.6-7.3-6.9)
2	#20	Wally	Schang	(245: 20-20-19)	(72.8: 8.2-6.4-6.3)
6	#22	Vern	Stephens(257: 32-31-25)	(77.4: 9.1-8.4-8.0)

1	#93	Babe	Adams	(246: 30-29-25)	(59.3: 10.1-7.8-7.0)
1	#77	Tommy	Bridges	(241: 26-22-20)	(86.1: 8.7-7.4-7.3)
1	#55	[B]Wilbur	Cooper[/B]	(266: 31-27-27)	(63.8: 9.5-7.4-7.4)
9	#29	[B]Gavy	Cravath[/B]	(204: 35-29-28)	(49.9: 10.6-6.9-6.7)
7	#31	Bob	Johnson	(280: 29-28-25)	(89.8: 9.2-9.0-8.2)
7	#17	[B]Charlie	Keller[/B]	(260: 34-33-32)	(83.7: 11.1-10.6-10.0)
7	#52	Lefty	O'Doul	(144: 33-31-22)	(39.1: 10.2-9.8-5.6)
1	#71	Urban	Shocker	(225: 30-29-25)	(74.6: 10.4-9.6-8.5)
3	#23	Mickey	Vernon	(335: 33-29-24)	(85.2: 9.7-8.7-6.6)

Pos – primary position(s)
BJ – rank at his position in the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001)
Win Shares – shown are career total and best 3 years
WARP3 – from Baseball Prospectus; shown are career total and best 3 years. The latest WARP revision reduced most of these candidate’s numbers.

Some other things to be aware of:
1) Bill James’ rankings emphasize players’ peak years; this results in long steady careers being rated lower than what may seem right.
2) Win shares during WW2 play are discounted: 3% for 1942, 6% for 1943, 9% for 1944, and 12% for 1945. YMMV. Johnson, Hack, and Stephens lost both career and peak WS; Players are also conservatively credited for missed play due to military service. Bridges, Gordon, Keller, and Vernon have additional WARP and WS for time lost 1942-45.
3) WARP3 attempts to account for league strength; players like Doyle, Magee, Cravath, and Cooper are sharply discounted for the supposed inferiority of the NL in the teens.
4) You are free to credit players with minor league or foreign league play. I have not attempted this, but the guys at the Hall of Merit have. Cravath, Keller and Johnson are players who lost productive years due to being held out of MLB by powers beyond their control.
5) Win shares during 1918-19 are increased for those short seasons. The 1918 season is also discounted due to many players being in military service. Players get a 7% increase for 1918 and a 10% increase for 1919. For most players, this adds 2-3 WS to their careers.

That leaves 11 players that dropped out of consideration after Round 2: George Burns, Bob Elliott, Jack Fournier, Ed Konetchy, Dolf Luque, Buddy Myer, Johnny Pesky, Jack Quinn, Bobby Veach, Bucky Walters, and Lon Warneke. Each of these candidates drew less than 16% support in Round 2.

[jjpm74]

Tough call. Keller and Cooper have both been gaining momentum in the BBFHOF elections, so both should advance to the next round, IMHO. Lefty O'Doul would be my personal choice, though Shocker also has a strong case as does Cravath depending on how much credit he gets for his minor league play.

[leecemark]

--Keller, Craveth and Bridges

[Paul Wendt]

Bridges? I am surprised to see him again. Was there an appeal?
1930s-40s results, official results
--

All but Keller were nominated for Veterans Committee consideration in 2007 (200 players) but only five advanced to the ballot (about 25 players). Remarkably, our bubble candidate Lefty O'Doul picked up the most votes, almost 20%.

2003	2005	2007	nameFirst	nameLast
		15	Lefty	O'Doul
		14	Mickey	Vernon
19	14	10	Joe	Gordon
12	9	7	Wes	Ferrell
16	12	6	Carl	Mays

There were no zeroes in any of the three elections. Blank means not on the final ballot.
N is the number of votes.
About 80 ballots were cast; about 60 votes needed for election.

[Paul Wendt]

My personal picks are Keller for sure and probably Cravath and O’Doul. Your input on this issue is strongly requested as we look to develop a consensus.

I agree with the three.

For the BBF HOF, Wilbur Cooper is on my ballot and Tommy Bridges is not. I can't believe Davenport's rating: Bridges 35% more valuable and about 50% more valuable than Adams. That must be one helluva premium for the A.L.

Here I have voted twice for Cooper and not for O'Doul. But what O'Doul now has at the table seems to be more than what any of the pitchers have. Here he is in the BBF HOF as a contributor, and that is good. Almost 20% support of HOF members and honorees voted for him in 2007, and that is good.

[Freakshow]

Bridges? I am surprised to see him again. Was there an appeal?

Not officially, but I cut him a break and let him into the mix. I prefer "errors" of inclusion in this project, rather than possible exclusions. Those with 20%+ support have always been among the at-large candidates, except for Jones in the 1880's, where we were already one over the quota without him. I probably should've let him in, too, but if you can't even outpoll McCormick and O'Neill, well....

EDIT: Wait, I haven't even done the straw poll for Round 2 yet. Since it looks like we may not get four at-large candidates form the 1870's, I certainly WILL include Jones in the straw poll.

[Erik Bedard]

Cravath, Keller, and Shocker or Bridges. Probably Shocker.

[dgarza]

Bob Johnson
Gavvy Cravath
Tommy Bridges

[Paul Wendt]

Here I have voted twice for Cooper and not for O'Doul. But what O'Doul now has at the table seems to be more than what any of the pitchers have. Here he is in the BBF HOF as a contributor, and that is good.

I mean that is a point in his favor beside his strong Ultimate Quest showing. Most of the good players with compound resumes whom we have featured here (Bill Dinneen, Charlie Grimm, Johnny Sain, Bill White) are not in the BBF HOF.

Almost 20% support of HOF members and honorees voted for him in 2007, and that is good.

I mean that is another point in his favor. "Real" support.

[AG2004]

I'm looking at this as a gatekeeper ...

Cooper hit the 50% threshhold in the last BBFHOF election. Keller received 6 votes out of 17; nobody else reached 2 votes.

O'Doul is ineligible for the BBFHOF player election, as he is in as a contributor. However, there are two knocks against him. First, he wouldn't make the cut as a player alone. His career value is much, much lower than that of anyone else on the list, and his value in his third best season is also low (WARP-3 rates it lower than anyone else's third best season), which means the peak isn't there. Second, O'Doul needed the wild-card selection just to get into the second round. Given that he couldn't move out of the first round without that assistance, I would be very reluctant to give him the same assistance to move him past the second round as well.

I would argue for moving Keller, Cooper, and Cravath on. Cravath was on two more ballots in Round 2 than Bob Johnson, and Cravath, like Johnson, exceeded the 60% mark in the first round.

We have one player from the 1910s-20s and two from the 1930s-40s one the round three ballot who didn't get to 50% in Round 2. On the other hand, we have four from the 1910s-20s and three from the 1930s-40s who reached the 65% mark. Given the way the votes split, the one-vote difference between Cooper's and O'Doul's Round 2 performances may very well have resulted from who they shared their Round 2 ballots with, and Cravath's results in Round 2 of voting would be the best among the possible wild-cards.

[Freakshow]

Cooper hit the 50% threshhold in the last BBFHOF election.

I wouldn't put any weight on this. The BBFHOF is majorly flawed by the fact that you are encouraged to base your vote on the existing results - independent analysis is discouraged by this. Bandwagoning is encouraged, indeed, actively promoted as a good thing.

O'Doul is ineligible for the BBFHOF player election, as he is in as a contributor. However, there are two knocks against him. First, he wouldn't make the cut as a player alone. His career value is much, much lower than that of anyone else on the list, and his value in his third best season is also low (WARP-3 rates it lower than anyone else's third best season), which means the peak isn't there. Second, O'Doul needed the wild-card selection just to get into the second round. Given that he couldn't move out of the first round without that assistance, I would be very reluctant to give him the same assistance to move him past the second round as well.

These are good points, ones that make me question my supporting him. O'Doul was first eligible in the second poll. As the project evolved, other players who had their "major contribution" off the field were being dismissed due to that. If O'Doul had come later, it's possible I would have taken that view of him and not even put him on the Round 1 ballot. Still, the HOF groups him with the players, so I'd probably be consistent with that.

[jalbright]

Keller and Cooper are two I support for the HOF, and while in this set they likely won't get my vote, those two definitely belong in the third round IMO.

Also, while we encourarge a consensus at BBF HOF. there's at most a mimimal attempt at enforcing one--and that's in the form of discouraging singleton votes at this late stage of the proceeedings. Also, the voters in that group are IMO a stronger electorate than we see in poll-based projects. In those senses, I think it is at least a suitable guide for us here.

[Paul Wendt]

FS replied to AG

These are good points, ones that make me question my supporting him. O'Doul was first eligible in the second poll. As the project evolved, other players who had their "major contribution" off the field were being dismissed due to that. If O'Doul had come later, it's possible I would have taken that view of him and not even put him on the Round 1 ballot. Still, the HOF groups him with the players, so I'd probably be consistent with that.

If it's about deserving, yes, I agree with this and with AG and Jim Albright on Wilbur Cooper relative to O'Doul.

I am also voting for Cooper at the BBF HOF where I believe I was the first person to list him. (Thanks for following. By the way two years ago I thought Dr. Chaleeko's support for him at the Hall of Merit was insane.) I presume he would also be on my personal list of fifteen 1910-1949 candidates. But he doesn't stand out much from Shocker and Bridges and Davenport's work makes me pause. If Cooper played in a weaker league by only one-third the discount that Davenport apparently estimates --if Davenport is 1/3 right about the AL superiority, in a manner of speaking-- then Cooper shouldn't stand out at all.

Anyway, one of my points in favor of O'Doul is that he is one type likely to retain his support at the next level. Cravath, Keller, and O'Doul are the ones among nine on our agenda. Cravath hand Keller with super high-quality short-length major league careers, O'Doul with the off-field or outside-mlb resume. Comparing him with Cooper, Shocker, or Bridges he is less deserving but more likely to get a few votes.

[Paul Wendt]

O'Doul was first eligible in the second poll. As the project evolved, other players who had their "major contribution" off the field were being dismissed due to that. If O'Doul had come later, it's possible I would have taken that view of him and not even put him on the Round 1 ballot. Still, the HOF groups him with the players, so I'd probably be consistent with that.

Hey, I quote that with the best intention to report briefly rather than to dissert at length. And then forgot to report.

For what it's worth, the Historical Overview Committee in its 200 player and 60 contributor nominations for 2003, 2005, 2007 reclassified only two people. Charlie Grimm and Davey Johnson were nominated as players for 2003 and 2005, as contributors for 2007. They nominated O'Doul three times as a player (but might not have counted contribution in Japan as contribution?). They nominated Bill White, a greater player than O'Doul imho, three times as a contributor.

[BlueBlood]

Cravath just doesn't add up for me.....since it's a four-way race in my mind and nearly everyone else's: Keller, O'Doul and Cooper.