Is Mike Sweeney a HOF'er?

[royalsnerd2004]

Do you think that Mike Sweeney deserves to be in the hall of fame?

[The Commissioner]

He's too young to pass judgment on yet. If he retired today, there is absolutely no way he would be a Hall of Famer. However, he is still only 30 years old. If he sticks around and continues to put up excellent numbers until he is 40, then perhaps he may be. As it stands now, it will still take another five years or so before we can even start to look at him and remotely ponder Cooperstown.

[royalsnerd2004]

Oh,well I think he is gonna start putting up better numbers every year he is comitted to his game.

[emstrem]

way to early

[Chadwick]

Do you think that Mike Sweeney deserves to be in the hall of fame?

Sweeney is playing in his 10th season this year which would make him eligible after sitting out 5 seasons after his final one (whenever that might be). His earliest appearance on a ballot, FYI, would be the 2010 BBWAA election.

As of now, Sweeney is a bad joke as a candidate. In 5-10 years? Permitted good health and a high sustanence of his peak performance (which is extremely unlikely for anyone), he could make a marginal candidate.

My prediction is that Sweeney will (deservedly) drop below the radar and his career won't amount to much of a candidacy at all. Most likely scenario: less than 5% of the BBWAA vote his first time up.

[Freakshow]

Very Unlikely

From BB-Ref:

Similar Batters through Age 29
Fred Lynn (953)
Bernie Williams (924)
Mike Greenwell (923)
Wally Berger (920)
Andy Pafko (920)
Bill Nicholson (919)
Dave Parker (918)
Magglio Ordonez (918)
Larry Walker (917)
Tony Perez (915) *

This give a pretty good idea of Sweeney's chances, although it appears messed up--these are outfielders, not 1B/DH types. Anyway, the one Hofer is a player with extreme longevity. Unless Sweeney can step up to a new level in his 30's and start posting some Black and Gray Ink, he will have to play into his mid-40's to have a chance. At best, IMO, a Harold Baines career is possible.

[catcher24]

I would agree that it is very unlikely. Of the similar players, Perez is the LEAST similar, and the only HOF'er in the group. Perez also played on some Cincinatti and Boston teams that helped him put up good numbers every year. Sweeney doesn't have that situation.

[Cougar]

The most positive spin I can put on this is that it is much more likely that Sweeney's teammate Benito Santiago will make the Hall than Sweeney himself will.

Alas, it's not very likely for Benito.

[Roy Hobbs]

Sweeney would pretty much bring all the rate stastic numbers down at the 1B position if he were inducted, meaning he shouldn't be.

[Fuzzy Bear]

From 1999-2002, Sweeney was producing numbers on offense that would have put him in contention for the HOF, had he been able to sustain them.

After 2002, Sweeney's injuries and inabilty to stay in the lineup have reduced him to being just another player. He's on the D/L right now.

Sweeney had HOF ability. I wonder how much of it he retains. Still, his tendency toward injury is well documented, and well established. If he hit his career norms until age 40, he MIGHT make the HOF. That MIGHT is a 2% chance. It's far more likely that injuries will remove Sweeney from the major leagues within the next 2-3 years.

[romanos72]

Sweeney is a weenie

Royalsnerd2004:

Sweeney? There's 50 better active ballplayers right now. Hell, He needs to work on being voted into another All-Star game.

[csh19792001]

From BB-Ref:

Similar Batters through Age 29
Fred Lynn (953)
Bernie Williams (924)
Mike Greenwell (923)
Wally Berger (920)
Andy Pafko (920)
Bill Nicholson (919)
Dave Parker (918)
Magglio Ordonez (918)
Larry Walker (917)
Tony Perez (915) *

On similarity scores....

Most similar players to Barry Bonds, according to age based similarity scores (year by year), through age 29.

Tom Brunansky (977) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Jack Clark (957) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Tom Brunansky (943) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Jack Clark (951) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Jack Clark (954) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Bobby Bonds (943) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Greg Luzinski (900) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C
Shawn Green (916) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

And at age 29, you have Shawn Green, Duke Snider, Daryl Strawberry, Reggie Jackson, Bobby Bonds, Dick Allen, Scott Rolen, GREG LUZINSKI, Dale Murphy, and Rocky Colavito. So 2 HOFers, a couple guys that might make it someday, and some very medicore "greats".

I'm not saying that Sweeney will make it- he won't. I'm just saying that I'm not sure how much stock we can put in similarity scores.

Where's the verisimilitude? It ain't here, man.

[csh19792001]

From 1999-2002, Sweeney was producing numbers on offense that would have put him in contention for the HOF, had he been able to sustain them.

After 2002, Sweeney's injuries and inabilty to stay in the lineup have reduced him to being just another player. He's on the D/L right now.

Sweeney had HOF ability.

I agree, Bear. In today's game, how many guys have a .304 lifetime average 11 years in? Scant few.

[KCGHOST]

I like Sweeney, but he has zero shot for the HoF due to health concerns. He has a back back that will remain a chronic problem.

[Fuzzy Bear]

From BB-Ref:

Similar Batters through Age 29
Fred Lynn (953)
Bernie Williams (924)
Mike Greenwell (923)
Wally Berger (920)
Andy Pafko (920)
Bill Nicholson (919)
Dave Parker (918)
Magglio Ordonez (918)
Larry Walker (917)
Tony Perez (915) *

This give a pretty good idea of Sweeney's chances, although it appears messed up--these are outfielders, not 1B/DH types. Anyway, the one Hofer is a player with extreme longevity. Unless Sweeney can step up to a new level in his 30's and start posting some Black and Gray Ink, he will have to play into his mid-40's to have a chance. At best, IMO, a Harold Baines career is possible.

One thing I would note is that through age 29, at least SOME of these guys were making good progress toward the HOF. The only guys on this list who, at age 29, were obvious NON-HOFers were Nicholson and Pafko.

Greenwell was a high OBP and BA guy with medium power who was injured at age 29 and was never the same player; he retired early. Berger started late, but through age 29, he was a dark horse HOFer; he played in the WORST hitter's park in the history of the NL, possibly, but he hit .300 with power and played CF. Lynn was on a HOF path through age 29, and Williams was picking up the pace at age 29. (Williams may have come the closest to the HOF of the bunch, but he was coming from behind, and ran out of gas a few years ago.) The verdict is pretty clear on Sweeney; it would be near-miraculous for him to regain his health and produce as he once did.