Lance Berkman (2009 poll)

[Sockeye]

I realize this may be a bit premature but I was discussing Lance Berkman with a few friends of mine. He's 30 and in his 8th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2332
At-Bats 8102
Runs 1522
Hits 2445
Doubles 588
Triples 46
Home Runs 462
RBI's 1586
Stolen Bases 113
Walks 1522
AVG .302
OBP .416
SLG .557

[leecemark]

--Do you think every halfway decent active player is headed to the Hall of Fame?

[538280]

I suppose it is possible if he ages very well, but a huge longshot. Better shot than Beltre has, but calling him a possible HOFer is still a big stretch. Despite playing in a huge offensive era, none of his top 10 similar players through his age is in the HOF, and only one is likely to be (Bagwell).

[Sockeye]

--Do you think every halfway decent active player is headed to the Hall of Fame?

Halway decent???

Look at his 162 game averages

563 AB's 106 runs 170 hits 41 doubles 3 triples 32 home runs 110 RBI's 8 steals 106 walks .302 AVG .416 OBP .557 SLG

Nothing halway decent about those stats. Those are great statistics!!!

[Sockeye]

I suppose it is possible if he ages very well, but a huge longshot. Better shot than Beltre has, but calling him a possible HOFer is still a big stretch. Despite playing in a huge offensive era, none of his top 10 similar players through his age is in the HOF, and only one is likely to be (Bagwell).

He's the opposite actually. He didn't make the majors until age 23 and his first full season cames at age 25. But since that time the numbers he has put up are truly HOF caliber numbers. 100+ runs 4 times, 100+ RBI's 3 times, 100+ walks 3 times, over a .400 OBP in each of his 5 full seasons. A career .416 OBP and a career .557 SLG. His career OPS is .973 which is the 17th highest of ALL TIME!!

[leecemark]

--Where does it rank when we're only talking about other players best 5 years? Nowhere near 17th I'm sure. His raw OPS is also inflated my the era he is playing in and his bandbox of a park. He is 30 and has already had some injured problems. I'd say the odds are very long against him ending up in Cooperstown.

[538280]

He's the opposite actually. He didn't make the majors until age 23 and his first full season cames at age 25. But since that time the numbers he has put up are truly HOF caliber numbers. 100+ runs 4 times, 100+ RBI's 3 times, 100+ walks 3 times, over a .400 OBP in each of his 5 full seasons. A career .416 OBP and a career .557 SLG. His career OPS is .973 which is the 17th highest of ALL TIME!!

I know you've been told this a million times, but I'll say it again: You really need to learn about era adjustments.

[Sockeye]

--Where does it rank when we're only talking about other players best 5 years? Nowhere near 17th I'm sure. His raw OPS is also inflated my the era he is playing in and his bandbox of a park. He is 30 and has already had some injured problems. I'd say the odds are very long against him ending up in Cooperstown.

Well his career OPS+ is 147 and he's had an OPS+ of 152 or higher 3 times so far so your argument of the era in which he has played just went out the window. As for his injury history...he had one injury last season that caused him to miss 30 games. I would hardly call that "some injuries" Do me a favor if you are going to argue your point against me and at least do your homework.

[leecemark]

--Well that OPS+ is tied for 43rd, down from 17th in raw OPS so putting it in context does make a huge difference. If he was 43rd at the end of his career that would be the start of a nice HoF argument, but with only five full seasons under his belt and already 30 it isn't nearly as impressive. His rates are almost certain to drop. I do agree with one statement from your initial post - it is premature to bring Berkman up as a Hall of Fame candidate.

[Edgartohof]

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2332
At-Bats 8102
Runs 1522
Hits 2445
Doubles 588
Triples 46
Home Runs 462
RBI's 1586
Stolen Bases 113
Walks 1522
AVG .302
OBP .416
SLG .557

Honestly, even if he did put up these numbers (very much up to debate), I wouldn't necessarily put him into the Hall, and also, I would say that his BA will drop below .302, and his OBP would drop with it (though not by as much).

He is off to a good start this year, but as you said before, this is all VERY premature.

[vasprtsfn]

I realize this may be a bit premature but I was discussing Lance Berkman with a few friends of mine. He's 30 and in his 8th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2332
At-Bats 8102
Runs 1522
Hits 2445
Doubles 588
Triples 46
Home Runs 462
RBI's 1586
Stolen Bases 113
Walks 1522
AVG .302
OBP .416
SLG .557

Berkman is a very outstanding player, but until he has retired, it is pointless to talk about his HOF worthiness.

[Francoeurstein]

I know you've been told this a million times, but I'll say it again: You really need to learn about era adjustments.

Yeah, if he played in the 70's and posted the same stats then he would probably be inducted to the HOF.

[Sockeye]

--Well that OPS+ is tied for 43rd, down from 17th in raw OPS so putting it in context does make a huge difference. If he was 43rd at the end of his career that would be the start of a nice HoF argument, but with only five full seasons under his belt and already 30 it isn't nearly as impressive. His rates are almost certain to drop. I do agree with one statement from your initial post - it is premature to bring Berkman up as a Hall of Fame candidate.

I find it extremely ironic that you try to use lack of longevity as an argument. Since longevity obviously means little or nothing to the vast majority of people here. And lets not underrate Berkman for his lack of full seasons. He has still played 907 games in 7 seasons through the age of 29. That puts him on pace to play more than 2300 games for his career which is more than 35 of the 62 HOF outfielders.

[leecemark]

--Longevity is important, but you have to be a great player somewhere along the way to be a Hall of Famer. That is what you failed to understand regarding Beltre. Berkman has had more big years than Beltre, but he has still been something of a second tier star. That is good enough to get you to Cooperstown if you do it long enough, but Berkman has a looong way to go. Your assumption that he (and other players) will keep producing at the same level deep into their 30s is another problem with your hall projections. Most guys will decline and/or miss time with injuries during their 30s.

[Sockeye]

Honestly, even if he did put up these numbers (very much up to debate), I wouldn't necessarily put him into the Hall, and also, I would say that his BA will drop below .302, and his OBP would drop with it (though not by as much).

He is off to a good start this year, but as you said before, this is all VERY premature.

So if he ended his career with a .973 OPS you wouldn't put him in the HOF? You do realize that his OPS is higher than other stars of his era such as Alex Rodriguez, Jeff Bagwell, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Piazza, Gary Sheffield, David Ortiz, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, etc.

Oh wait the OPS stat doesn't mean anything for him due to the era he has played in. Well do you realize his OPS+ of 147 is higher than past baseball greats such as Sam Thompson, Sam Crawford, Hack Wilson, Harmon Killebrew, Eddie Mathews, Cap Anson, Eddie Collins, Billy Hamilton, Jesse Burkett, Duke Snider, Reggie Jackson, King Kelly, Chuck Klein, Larry Doby, Bill Terry, etc