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The Ultimate Quest for Candidates: Round 2 – The 1980's/early 90's

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  • The Ultimate Quest for Candidates: Round 2 – The 1980's/early 90's

    Welcome to The Ultimate Quest for Candidates – Round 2. This thread will have the seventh and final poll in the second round, combining the leading players from the polls for the early/mid 1980’s and the late 1980’s/early 90's. Refer to the earlier threads for discussion and links to biographies.

    There will be 17 players on the ballot. You will be asked to vote for 6 (SIX) players. These 14 players automatically advanced to this round by their top finishes in the Round 1 polls:

    88% Tim Raines
    88% Andre Dawson
    85% Albert Belle
    83% Alan Trammell
    79% Dale Murphy
    77% Mark McGwire
    74% Will Clark
    67% Keith Hernandez
    63% Jim Rice
    59% Lee Smith
    58% Dwight Evans
    58% Dan Quisenberry
    58% Lou Whitaker
    55% David Cone

    We need to decide who will get the other three spots on the ballot. There are nine runners-up who are under consideration:

    42% Jack Morris
    37% Bret Saberhagen
    37% Harold Baines
    33% Don Mattingly
    26% Jose Canseco
    26% Joe Carter
    26% Orel Hershiser
    21% Ron Guidry
    17% Dave Stieb

    My personal picks are probably Saberhagen, Mattingly and Stieb. Your input on this issue is strongly requested as we look to develop a consensus.

    Below are the players we voted as the top 23 HOF candidates whose careers centered in the 1980’s and early 1990's.
    Code:
    Pos	BJ	Player Name	 Win Shares	 WARP3
    7	#20	Albert	Belle	(256: 37-34-33)	(89.6: 14.3-11.8-11.6)
    3	#14	Will	Clark	(340: 44-37-34)	(104.0: 13.2-11.4-9.9)
    1	#98	David	Cone	(214: 27-21-21)	(94.2: 10.8-9.7-9.0)
    9/8	#19	Andre	Dawson	(353: 36-29-28)	(107.5: 11.8-9.9-9.4)
    9	#22	Dwight	Evans	(357: 36-31-29)	(116.5: 12.5-10.1-9.2)
    3	#16	Keith Hernandez	(321: 33-30-29)	(100.1: 10.1-9.7-9.5)
    3	#3	Mark	McGwire	(349: 41-30-30)	(109.8: 11.9-10.8-9.6)
    8/9	#12	Dale	Murphy	(301: 33-32-32)	(86.4: 11.6-10.0-9.7)
    1	#68	Dan Quisenberry	(163: 28-24-23)	(52.7: 8.7-8.2-7.5)
    7	#8	Tim	Raines	(406: 36-34-32)	(131.1: 12.0-11.3-10.5)
    7	#27	Jim	Rice	(289: 36-28-28)	(80.2: 9.7-8.9-7.5)
    1	---	Lee	Smith	(204: 19-17-17)	(85.5: 8.8-8.0-7.6)
    6	#9	Alan Trammell	(327: 35-29-29)	(127.1: 13.5-11.3-11.2)
    4	#13	Lou Whitaker	(363: 29-26-25)	(129.9: 10.8-9.4-9.1)
    At-large Candidates					
    9/D	#42	Harold	Baines	(317: 25-24-22)	(98.6: 9.5-7.9-7.2)
    9/D	#36	Jose	Canseco	(280: 39-31-26)	(86.8: 12.7-9.7-8.9)
    7	#32	Joe	Carter	(246: 28-26-24)	(67.9: 9.0-8.5-7.5)
    1	#66	Ron	Guidry	(179: 31-22-19)	(76.9: 12.3-9.2-8.7)
    1	#83	Orel Hershiser	(215: 25-23-21)	(84.1: 9.9-9.5-8.9)
    3	#12	Don Mattingly	(270: 34-32-29)	(84.3: 11.9-11.0-10.2)
    1	---	Jack	Morris	(234: 23-21-20)	(85.0: 8.0-7.8-7.5)
    1	#79	Bret Saberhagen	(199: 28-24-23)	(91.8: 12.6-10.1-10.0)
    1	#74	Dave	Stieb	(217: 25-25-24)	(86.5: 9.8-9.5-9.4)
    Pos – primary position(s)
    BJ – rank at his position in the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001)
    Win Shares – shown are career total and best 3 years
    WARP3 – from Baseball Prospectus; shown are career total and best 3 years
    Other –

    Some other things to be aware of:
    1) Bill James’ rankings emphasize players’ peak years; this results in long steady careers being rated lower than what may seem right.
    2) Win shares in strike seasons 1972, 1981, 1994 and 95 are increased to adjust them to a 162-game season. In addition, 1981 and 1994 have been gently regressed for surrounding seasons.
    3) You are free to credit players with minor league or foreign league play. Reggie Smith had play in Japan.
    4) The latest WARP3 update has slightly higher numbers for most of these players than are shown in the Round 1 threads.

    That leaves 19 players that dropped out of consideration after Round 1: Buddy Bell, Bobby Bonilla, Brett Butler, Jack Clark, Jose Cruz, Chili Davis, Brian Downing, Tony Fernandez, Mark Grace, Pedro Guerrero, Chet Lemon, Dennis Martinez, Paul O'Neill, Lance Parrish, Tony Phillips, Willie Randolph, Frank Tanana, Tim Wallach, and Matt Williams.
    136
    Albert Belle
    6.62%
    9
    Will Clark
    5.88%
    8
    David Cone
    0.74%
    1
    Andre Dawson
    10.29%
    14
    Dwight Evans
    4.41%
    6
    Keith Hernandez
    3.68%
    5
    Don Mattingly
    2.94%
    4
    Mark McGwire
    8.82%
    12
    Jack Morris
    2.94%
    4
    Dale Murphy
    10.29%
    14
    Dan Quisenberry
    2.94%
    4
    Tim Raines
    13.97%
    19
    Jim Rice
    5.88%
    8
    Bret Saberhagen
    0.74%
    1
    Lee Smith
    2.94%
    4
    Alan Trammell
    11.03%
    15
    Lou Whitaker
    5.88%
    8

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by Freakshow; 05-22-2008, 07:32 AM.
    Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

    Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

  • #2
    All pitchers: Jack Morris, Bret Saberhagen, Ron Guidry

    Comment


    • #3
      Stieb, Saberhagen and Mattingly.
      "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
      "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
      "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
      "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

      Comment


      • #4
        Stieb, Mattingly, Saberhagen.
        "Any pitcher who throws at a batter and deliberately tries to hit him is a communist."

        - Alvin Dark

        Comment


        • #5
          Morris, Baines, Stieb
          "I will calmly wait for my induction to the Baseball Hall of Fame."
          - Sammy Sosa

          "Get a comfy chair, Sammy, cause its gonna be a long wait."
          - Craig Ashley (AKA Windy City Fan)

          Comment


          • #6
            Morris and Mattingly definitely. Of the other seven, I guess I would lean more heavily toward Guidry than anyone else.
            The Writer's Journey

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
              All pitchers: Jack Morris, Bret Saberhagen, Ron Guidry
              I'll second those three choices, though none will see my vote in the regular voting.
              Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
              Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
              A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

              Comment


              • #8
                Baines, Morris, Mattingly. Frankly, it's pointless to add in a few to this round as I can't see any of these garnering a vote in a field with Dawson, Raines, Clark, etc.
                1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988

                1889 1890 1899 1900 1916 1920
                1941 1947 1949 1952 1953 1956
                1966 1974 1977 1978


                1983 1985 1995 2004 2008 2009
                2013 2014


                1996 2006

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by BlueBlood View Post
                  Frankly, it's pointless to add in a few to this round
                  Au contraire. If the point of this project was to simply discover the best candidates for the Hall, well that would be pointless; we've done that a hundred times in some form or another.

                  In the "home" thread for this project I wrote this:

                  In doing this exercise, we will accomplish a number of things:
                  • Produce an era-adjusted list of the top 100 candidates; these are the players truly deserving of serious consideration for the Hall.


                  Later in that thread I wrote this:

                  See, this project isn't mainly about those Top 20 at the end, it's seeing where over 200 players fall in the queue to the doors of the HOF. We're taking an approach to a more formal compiling of The Hall of Very Good.

                  With Round 1 completed, we're ready to finish doing this. Look for a poll soon.
                  Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                  Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Ah, had no idea this project had an objective beyond the Top 20 list.
                    1955 1959 1963 1965 1981 1988

                    1889 1890 1899 1900 1916 1920
                    1941 1947 1949 1952 1953 1956
                    1966 1974 1977 1978


                    1983 1985 1995 2004 2008 2009
                    2013 2014


                    1996 2006

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                      All pitchers: Jack Morris, Bret Saberhagen, Ron Guidry
                      --Ditto--------

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Five players are in the running for the three at-large spots on the ballot. I'll let this go a bit longer, maybe get a couple more opinions on the matter, and probably post the poll later today.
                        Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                        Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          One three pitchers received as much as 25% of the vote in the first round. One (Cone) is automatically on the ballot. I would suggest that, in looking who to add, we limit the starting pitchers added to just two of the three selections.
                          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Baines and Morris played a long time and they were never great. That is no coincidence. "Honorable mention" selects a relatively narrow "border line" where longevity and skill move in opposite direcitions as you walk along. With both they would be first round winners.

                            I lean away from longevity but Morris does have credibility as the strongest real-world candidate on this list (like Garvey) and for the strongest showing in round one.

                            Saberhagen, Stieb, Hershiser, Canseco and Mattingly were the best of these players. On similar grounds, plus Morris on different grounds, these six are worth considering at this stage.

                            1. Saberhagen - elected promptly by the Hall of Merit. Maybe better than Stieb and Hershiser, all in their prime years, certainly put up some excellent short seasons late in his career which they both lack. I can't see taking S or H without him, so Saberhagen should be one unless you go with Morris, Canseco, Mattingly --and no one speaks for Canseco yet.

                            2. Mattingly - second to Morris as a real-world candidate but it's a distant second, maybe shouldn't be a factor. There are some character knocks against Canseco which should knock him below Mattingly here, given all the goals of the project. So Mattingly should be one unless you go with three pitchers.
                            Originally posted by Classic View Post
                            One three pitchers received as much as 25% of the vote in the first round.
                            Four start and two relief.
                            One (Cone) is automatically on the ballot. I would suggest that, in looking who to add, we limit the starting pitchers added to just two of the three selections.
                            A quota doesn't make sense to me. Pitchers are at the top of the round one honorable mentions partly because they ranked poorly overall, and vice versa. Here and now "limit two pitchers" is a way of saying "Mattingly" because it is clear that the others have practically no support.

                            Hershiser is underrated and I might take him with Saberhagen and Stieb if required to put three of these men in. Let me toss that into the discussion, acknowledge that there is no support yet expressed for him (or for Canseco) and move on.

                            Where are we? The intersection of my six and the group's five is
                            Morris, Saberhagen, Stieb, Mattingly
                            Here and now you should take Saberhagen and two of the others.
                            That isn't the bottom line but it's as far as I go.

                            Ron Guidry? I can see taking him fourth with Saberhagen, Stieb, and Hershiser.
                            Here and now, no way.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Mattingly, Guidry, and Joe Carter

                              Comment

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