Incoming Freshmen Classes

[Chadwick]

I'm particularly curious about updates to the guys who haven't played yet this year, but might.

2009 Freshmen (2003 Final Season)
Jay Bell
David Cone
Mark Grace
Rickey Henderson
Todd Hundley
Jesse Orosco
Dean Palmer
Dan Plesac
Mo Vaughn
Matt Williams

2010 Freshmen (2004 Final Season)
Roberto Alomar
Kevin Appier
Ellis Burks
Andres Galarraga
Eric Karros
Ray Lankford
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Robin Ventura

2011 Freshmen (2005 Final Season)
Jeff Bagwell
Kevin Brown
John Franco
Juan Gonzalez
John Olerud
Rafael Palmeiro
Larry Walker

2012 Freshmen (2006 Final Season)
Javy Lopez
Tim Salmon
Bernie Williams

2013 Freshmen (2007 Final Season)
Barry Bonds
Craig Biggio
Roger Clemens
Steve Finley
Julio Franco
Shawn Green
Roberto Hernandez
Kenny Lofton
Jose Mesa
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Sammy Sosa
David Wells

[soberdennis]

Rickey will go in next year. Vaughn might too.
The 2010 class may see Alomar and/or Larkin and/or McGriff. But I think that they are all borderline first timers.
2011 is Bagwell's year. Walker and Olerud could join him, but I think they will have to wait.
2012 probably won't see any first time inductees. Bernie will probably get in one day. But not right away.
2013 may be interesting as to how the Mitchell report will affect the voting. For their careers alone, there are quite a few that warrant immediate induction. But only time will tell whether it will happen.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Rickey will go in next year. Vaughn might too.
The 2010 class may see Alomar and/or Larkin and/or McGriff. But I think that they are all borderline first timers.
2011 is Bagwell's year. Walker and Olerud could join him, but I think they will have to wait.
2012 probably won't see any first time inductees. Bernie will probably get in one day. But not right away.
2013 may be interesting as to how the Mitchell report will affect the voting. For their careers alone, there are quite a few that warrant immediate induction. But only time will tell whether it will happen.

Vaughn might? Really? First ballot?
I think he'll be lucky to stay on the ballot.

I thought Curt Schilling was merely injured.

[Chadwick]

I think the only "first-timers" on this list are Henderson (2009), Alomar/Larkin (2010), Bagwell (2011), and Biggio/Piazza (2013). Alomar and Larkin are iffy. Clemens still has a shot at 2013, but I'm very skeptical that Bonds will be able to convince 75 percent of the voters given how they've treated McGwire the past two elections.

[baseballPAP]

Rickey is a solo act, at least from the "freshmen". Mo shouldn't even have 20%.

The most interesting class here to me is the following one. Larkin, Alomar and Ventura...do they carry the torch for the "steroids era ruined my what should have been stats easily good enough" crowd, or do they simply get overlooked completely? The Class of 2010 (toss in Appier and McGriff...borderliners to me, and maybe Martinez and Galarraga) could be one of the largest ever....or it might just get completely overlooked.

All of those candidates have the numbers...when they retired. Now I would think the bar is significantly higher. It shouldn't be...but I'm thinking it is.

[hairmetalfreek]

I have never heard the names Appier, Olerud or Walker discussed in a serious Hall of Fame conversation. I just checked B-R and Walker is the only one that makes the cut with Jamesian numbers, but I still don't think he's up to par because of possibly inflated stats in Colorado.

[John Shoemaker]

Won't Reggie Sanders be on the 2013 ballot?

[BenHertz]

Lenny Harris - 2005 final season.

[Captain Cold Nose]

I have never heard the names Appier, Olerud or Walker discussed in a serious Hall of Fame conversation. I just checked B-R and Walker is the only one that makes the cut with Jamesian numbers, but I still don't think he's up to par because of possibly inflated stats in Colorado.

Olerud has been the part of some pretty solid discussion here in the past, and Walker more so. The Colorado effect really takes hold here, although it seems Todd Helton has surpassed him in regards to that discussion and Walker was a fine player in Montreal before joining the Rockies.

Appier, I can't seem to recall too much discussion at all about him anywhere on this board. I always liked him as a pitcher, and he probably deserves more of a look than he has received.

[Paul Wendt]

Olerud has been the part of some pretty solid discussion here in the past, and Walker more so. The Colorado effect really takes hold here, although it seems Todd Helton has surpassed him in regards to that discussion and Walker was a fine player in Montreal before joining the Rockies.

That's right. From 1994 at least, many people considered Walker a future Hall of Famer. Along with Galarraga and Bichette, Walker was the object of debate about Coors Field. For Galarraga occasionally and Walker frequently, that debate concerned Hall of Fame prospects.

The BBFever HOF elections show that Walker is borderline. I believe he is one of those who will max out between 1/3 and 2/3 support, exclusive.

[Paul Wendt]

I thought Curt Schilling was merely injured.

His injuries may go beyond "mere" but yes he is on the team, comeback in progress.
"Schilling takes step forward in rehab" (Red Sox at mlb.com Friday -05-23)

[Fuzzy Bear]

Rickey will be the only 2009 guy to go in on the first ballot. While I don't look forward to him sharing the podium with Jim Rice (who I believe will be inducted on his last try), he's a slam-dunk HOFer. Indeed, players like Rickey Henderson typify what the HOF was originally meant to honor (although that standard was diluted from the get-go, so let's not jack it up to where it's really never been).

The 2010 class will be interesting. The best player of that group, IMO, is Barry Larkin, but Roberto Alomar will give him competition. Both, of course, should go in (and both, I believe, will eventually go in), but I would not be surprised if neither do on the first ballot. I think that Bert Blyleven will finally make it in 2010 (which, I think, is HIS last shot).

Larkin, Alomar, Martinez, and McGriff are the guys that have legit HOF cases amongst that class. I see no precedent for keeping Alomar or Larkin out, but the writers have been funny about inducting second basemen, making worthy candidates wait and creating a huge gray area. The same holds true for Larkin; there would be NO precedent for keeping a Gold Glove SS with his career offensive stats and performance out of the HOF, but a lot of people are dubious as to his chances. They are very similar, offensively and defensively. Alomar finished at .300, but Larkin's OWP is higher. Alomar won more Gold Gloves, but Larkin was a Gold Glover who played the harder position. Alomar, for most of his career (and, perhaps, still today) was (is?) perceived to have had the better career, but Larkin is closely identified with one team, and Larkin is the one that won an MVP award (albeit a mildly controversial award).

I am predicting that Larkin goes in before Alomar, or goes in the same year with a higher vote total. Larkin was perceived as a "good guy"; Alomar was moody and had an unsavory "spitting incident" at an umpire. Larkin played with one team; Alomar's career was spent with six teams, and he's not clearly identified with any one of those teams (although he'll probably go in as a Blue Jay). The intangibles seem to favor Larkin; that, and the fact that he was a shortstop, and the HOF voters are more predictable in selecting shortstops adds to Larkin's edge.

[hairmetalfreek]

Alomar's career was spent with six teams, and he's not clearly identified with any one of those teams (although he'll probably go in as a Blue Jay).

That is the team that I associate with him most. I can only name 3 other teams he played on (Padres, Mets, Orioles)...off the top of my head. Was he in Cleveland too? Where else? I need to go to baseball-reference...

[Cowtipper]

Here are my thoughts.

From the 2009 class, Rickey Henderson will go in first ballot. David Cone, Mark Grace, Mo Vaughn and maybe Matt Williams will get a significant number of votes. Cone may make the Hall one day, however I don't think so.

From the 2010 class, Alomar and Larkin will get the most votes, however I don't foresee either getting in first ballot. Burks, Galarraga, Martinez and McGriff will also get a significant amount of votes. Martinez and McGriff may make the Hall one day (I hope not Martinez, I don't think DH's should get in, unless they do something super-spectacular).

Everyone from the 2011 class will get a considerable amount of votes. Bagwell is the only sure Hall of Famer out of that group, however.

The 2012 class will have Lopez and Williams getting some votes, however neither will ever get in, in my opinion.

2013 is LOADED. All these guys have great shots at getting in:

Barry Bonds
Craig Biggio
Roger Clemens
Mike Piazza
Curt Schilling
Sammy Sosa

However, they all won't get in first ballot. This is the order I'd put them in:

Piazza
Schilling
Biggio
Sosa
Clemens
Bonds

These guys may all get a good amount of votes:

Steve Finley
Julio Franco
Shawn Green (maybe)
Kenny Lofton
David Wells

However, I don't think any of them will get into the Hall.

[The Dude]

Olerud has been the part of some pretty solid discussion here in the past.

Here's an excerpt from a blog post I made almost exactly 2 years ago, on 1B of the steroid era, on John Olerud:

However, what people don't tend to say about Olerud, is about how he was hitting about .300 his entire career and how he was on base about .400 of the time during his career. And that's a lot of what John Olerud is. He was the guy who was "about". Olerud was much like one of my favorite players, Indian Bob Johnson. Except for the part that Johnson broke into the majors in his late 20's instead of the age of 20 like Olerud did. Johnson wasn't the best player in his league. He didn't lead the league in much, neither did Olerud. However, they were always at the top of their game. Hitting .020-.0.30 above the league average. Both drew a lot of walks. You could expect 15 HR's a year from olerud and 25 from Johnson when these guys were at their best. They just flew under the radar because of their consistancy.

Theres five types of players in baseball.
1.Ridin' on Peak. These would be your Roger Maris' and your George Bell's.
2.Short Peak, long career. These are different from the Peakers. They had a long career. These are players like Frank Thomas and Ernie Banks. Had a great span of 3-6 years, then just kept chugging it out the rest of their career.
3.Long Career. These would be your Harold Baines and your Eddie Murray. Never the best but always good.
4.Peak Long Career. This is Babe Ruth. Mike Schmidt. Stan Musial. The best of the best.
5.Just a bit Late. This is Indian Bob Johnson. This is Dolph Camilli. Jackie Robinson. It doesn't happen much these days, but someone who breaks in really late, it's far tougher to evaluate their greatness.

So where does John Olerud fall? About Number three. You see, Olerud only played until he was 36. He batted .289 in limited time in 2005. He could have kept going, kept plugging along. Built up career numbers like Harold Baines, which makes some people think Baines is a Hall of Famer. I'm not against that idea, I just think Baines is a marginal player for the hall.

There is one thing I find suprising about Olerud offensively. He created 100 or more runs 6 times in his career. That's something that even I don't think about when I think of Olerud.

So is Olerud a hall of famer based on just this? He falls short of marginal in my opinion. But there is one more key element. Defense. Yes, I know that many people believe defense for a first basemen is worth garbage. I am not one of those people. Is defense as valuable at first base compared to SS? No, it is not. But there is still value in 1st base defense, and being far better than average is worth more than just being average.

Now when you think of great defensive First Sackers, you think Keith Hernandez, Jeff Bagwell, Steve Garvey, Bill Terry, Bill White, Mark Grace, and Bill Bucker, just to throw out some names. Lets compare them in RAA to Olerud.

1. Hernandez-168
2. Olerud-148
3. Grace-127
4. Bagwell-122
5. Terry-49
6. Garvey-46
7. White-30
8. Buckner-27

So of these supposed great defensive first basemen, Olerud was greater than all of them, except the king of defense himself, Keith Hernandez. When you're that much better than average, I believe your defense should be a major boost no matter what position you play.

If you add the defense to the mix, I believe Olerud is a marginal hall of famer. Clear cut? Nope. No way? Nope. I wouldn't be upset if he didn't make it, or if he didn't make it. I personally have him 25th all time.