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  • Annual Tom Glavine Rant

    Here is my annual push to get Tom Glavine the recognition he deserves. If it looks familiar, it is because I have posted this a few times in the past couple of months.

    Glavine will probably win 300 games or very close to it with a very good .600 W% (.630 since 1991) to boot. Any notion that he is "Suttoning" his way to 300 wins is absurd.

    5 20-win seasons (led league all five times)

    120 career ERA+ (128 since 1991, 125 since that horrible rookie season)

    almost 4,000 innigs pitched (Top 10: 12 times)

    Top 10 Games started: 12 times

    Top 10 ERA: 8 times

    Top 10 ERA+: 9 times

    Top 10 wins: 10 times

    Top 10 W%: 8 times

    Top 10 complete games: 8 times

    Top 10 shutouts: 10 times

    2 Cy Youngs (top 3 in voting on six occasions)

    9 All- Star appearances

    Almost 300 Win Shares

    Glavine is in the top 30 all-time in RSAA.

    Glavine scores a 157 on the HOF monitor, or good for 37th ...and still climbing.

    Over the past 15 years, Glavine's ERA+ has been has been under 105 once, and under 118 only three times. 8 times Glavine's ERA+ has been over 130. 5 times over 140.

    World Series MVP and career 2.50 World Series ERA.

    4 Silver Sluggers

    Glavine would have won numerous Gold Gloves if Maddux wasn't around.

    IT TOOK A TAXI ACCIDENT TO PUT HIM ON HIS ONLY DL STINT! It takes Kerry Wood a hangnail.

    Glavine was the cornerstone of the greatest pitching staff of all-time. Remember, it was Glavine who was the staff ace, two-time 20 game winner, and two-time All-Star Game starter for the first two Braves World Series teams before Maddux was a Brave.

    People complain about the 1.30 WHIP (which is still well above normal), but remember, Glavine's XB/9 rate is very low, and is afforded to give up more singles. Especialy when you have one of the greatest double plays induced rates ever (even higher than Maddux, who is much more of a ground ball pitcher and pitched more innings.) Glavine's total bases per 9 innings rate is very good, and his slugging % against is lower than the likes of Schilling, Mussina and many, many others with much superior WHIPs. That .7 HR/9 ratio and a 1.30 WHIP is just as effective as a 1.18 WHIP and a 1.0 HR/9 ratio.

    1.5 GB/FO ratio. (Many of those FO are harmless nubbers off of right hander's bats trying to pull a change-up)

    By the way, did I mention that Glavine's WHIP is better than everybodies' favorite, Bob Feller? It is also almost as low as Lefty Grove's! (not sayin Glavine is better, just that if you use WHIP as a reason to leave Glavine out of Cooperstown, then Feller shouldn't even sniff your top 10.)

    Glavine is very effective at holding runners, preventing hit batsmen, preventing wild pitches, and balks. All of these things add up to a lot of extra bases over the course of a season. If "secondary average" is important for batters like Biggio, than why does nobody talk about the "secondary" ways to keep runners from advancing bases?

    I do believe that some pitchers such as Glavine do have some control over where the ball is hit and if an out is produced, and he is also very good at this skill. Despite a few years, which can be easily explained by just leaving the ball over the plate more than normal, Glavines BABIP is very good. In my opinion, this legitimizes his double play rates. If you don't agree with this statement, then I guess Glavine getting 20-30 double plays every year is random luck year...after year...after year...after year...after year...

    I wish I had the stats, but I know for a fact that Glavine's BAA w/ ROB and K w/ROB are far superior to his normal rates. His BAA w/RISP and K w/RISP are superior to that. I know clutch is a dirty word for many, but he "know how to make the right pitches when he needs to." This is a good indication of how Glavine pitches: pitch to contact to avoid high pitch counts (which increases WHIP with little singles), then throw a little harder with more movement with men on base. In 1994, Glavine was one of the NL leaders in strikeouts because he made an effort to do so. There was a problem, he also gave up more extra base hits, because while striking out more batters, he also left the ball around the plate more. In 1995, Glavine intintionaly threw with less velocity and went on to have a great season. Glavine could have had higher K rates if he wanted to, but it would have thrown off his rythm, as it did in 1994.

    There are three ways in which a pitcher's team can drasitcaly effect his stats. The team's defense, offense, and bullpen. It has widely been regarded that Glavine has had a lot of support in these areas however...

    Glavine's career run support is 102. Only 2% higher than league average. In fact, 102 is lower than the average Hall of Famer.

    Glavine has recieved good (not Jim Plamer good) defensive support. His all-time adjusted NRA is 3.82, and his DERA is 3.85. Hardly earth shattering support. by the way, I could list a whole bunch of Hall of Famers with higher DERA than Glavine.

    Glavine has the sixth worst bullpen support of any starter with 2000 IP since 1969. ("Banking on the Bullpen" Michael Wolverton) Glavine went from being on horrible bullpens through the late 80's to a mediocre bullpen through most of the 90's,(the good times with Wholers or Rocker were short lived) to horrible bullpens with the Mets again. I am sure Glavine would have loved to have had Reardon, Rivera, and Lidge in his bullpen.

    The notion than Glavine (Maddux) is a by-product of the Braves' success is rediculous. The exact opposite is true. The Braves built their dynasty around Glavine and Smoltz (and Avery for about two years), then Maddux. Madux and Glavine posted a winning % close to .700% from 1993 - 2002. The Braves winning % was far below this. Even with Smoltz on the roster, Maddux and Glavine posted a near unprecidented run of success for two teamates.

    And of course Glavine is the only top-notch pitcher to ever get the benefit of umpires calls.

    Finally, no, of course Glavine isn't in the same sphere as Maddux, Clemens, Pedro, or Johnson. Nor will anybody claim he is, but he doesn't have to be to make Cooperstown. There are other cases of the 5th or so best pitcher form one era is in Cooperstown...Jenkins for instance. Yes, I do believe the fifth best starter of one generation can be better than the best of another (Jack Morris).

    Even if you are a staunch peripherals person, there is no amount of stat tinkering or cherry-picking that can overturn the long list of accomplishments Glavine has achieved, even if Glavine was the "hit luck" king, and even if Andrew Jones saved him 10 runs a game. It may be difficult at times to know why a pitcher has been so successful, but just because no final measure has been made to show why he is more successful with less stuff, doesn't mean he wasn't. (even though I can clearly point out HR ratios or XB ratios or anything else that will always fall on def ears) We should all relish the fact that a Glavine has done what he has with less "stuff" than others. This makes his accomplishments even more remarkable.

    Glavine should without a doubt be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. (I have him ranked 39th all-time as did BBF in last years top 50 polls.) It is time that all of us Glavine fans unite and supress this silly notion of Glavine not being a Hall of Famer. Where are you all?
    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 03-22-2006, 11:00 PM.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
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  • #2
    I already knew Glavine is a HoFer.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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    • #3
      Most people on this site would advocate Glavine for making the HOF. After the big 4 of the era, he's next in line. His two Cy Youngs awards (whether he "deserved" them or not, he still got them.) make him a more palatable candidate than Mussina, Brown, Wells, etc.
      He's first ballot-worthy, but may have to wait a year or two, at most, depending on how the voters handle the offensive explosion candidates.
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      • #4
        "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
        "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
        "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
        "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

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        • #5
          I don't understand this rant at all. Glavine has gotten plenty of love in his career. The only reason you haven't heard much of him lately is he made a decision to follow the money to the Mets. Had he stayed with the perennial NL East champion Braves you would have heard more.
          Buck O'Neil: The Monarch of Baseball

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          • #6
            I agree that after the "big four" you mention, Glavine is certainly the next in line for this era, and a sure Hall of Famer. I think these comprise the five pretty much everyone who has an objective opinion agrees are in.

            The next tier (Wells, Mussina, Schilling, Brown, Smoltz) are where you'll see arguements.
            Visit my card site at Mike D's Baseball Card Page.

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            • #7
              I think that its really the "Big Four plus one." Glavine just doesn't stack up to THOSE guys. It happens that the four no-doubter HOF pitchers from his era have arguments as top 10 guys, certainly all are top 20. Glavine, a solid HOFer in his own right, looks questionalbe ONLY BY COMPARISON, but none of the big four are the standard.

              I don't consider Glavine tier 2, I consider him tier 1A. Tier two for me is Smoltz, Schilling, Mussina, Brown.
              THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

              In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

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              • #8
                Originally posted by KCGHOST
                I don't understand this rant at all. Glavine has gotten plenty of love in his career. The only reason you haven't heard much of him lately is he made a decision to follow the money to the Mets. Had he stayed with the perennial NL East champion Braves you would have heard more.
                Then why is Glavine only getting barely over 50% of the "should be in the Hall" vote on the Should be vs. Will be poll. There are lots of people who don't want to see him in Cooperstown.

                I honestly believ that if Glavine does not get elected, the only eligable players better who ould not be in the Hall would be Santo and maybe Blyleven.
                1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by STLCards2
                  Then why is Glavine only getting barely over 50% of the "should be in the Hall" vote on the Should be vs. Will be poll. There are lots of people who don't want to see him in Cooperstown.

                  I honestly believ that if Glavine does not get elected, the only eligable players better who ould not be in the Hall would be Santo and maybe Blyleven.
                  Glavine is also getting 81% as "Will get in the Hall" vote. Were we supposed to vote for both?
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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Captain Cold Nose
                    Glavine is also getting 81% as "Will get in the Hall" vote. Were we supposed to vote for both?
                    Yes. I didn't construct the poll very well. The numbers are very skewed. Several people have already admitted to not voting for both when they wanted to. My mistake.
                    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by STLCards2
                      Yes. I didn't construct the poll very well. The numbers are very skewed. Several people have already admitted to not voting for both when they wanted to. My mistake.
                      It's cool. If anyone who wants to vote both for anybody, or whatever, can let me know, I can fix the poll. I fixed my votes, accordingly.
                      Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
                      Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
                      Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
                      Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
                      Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

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                      • #12
                        Glavine has all the eye-catching accomplishments that HoF voters love; Cy Young Awards, 20 win seasons, playoff success, and hopefully, 300 career wins. If he gets to 300 wins he's a lock.
                        Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules
                          Glavine has all the eye-catching accomplishments that HoF voters love; Cy Young Awards, 20 win seasons, playoff success, and hopefully, 300 career wins. If he gets to 300 wins he's a lock.

                          Do you honestly not consider him a lock right now?
                          I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he didn't have that kind of dough. But he eventually scraped it up.~Bob Uecker


                          "While he had a total of forty home runs in his first two big-league seasons, it is unlikely that Aaron will break any records in this department." ~ Furman Bisher, Atlanta Journal and Constitution "journalist"

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by jpenrod
                            Do you honestly not consider him a lock right now?
                            To me Glavine is a lock. How the actual HoF voters feel is another matter.
                            Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Glavine, IMO, should be a first ballot, no questions asked HOFer. However, the writers are prone to not liking a guy who wasn't real exciting to watch. Glavine doesn't have great stuff.

                              But, he still probably will be elected. The HOF Monitor tries to predict a player's chance for the HOF, and Glavine is at 157. No 20th century player with a HOF Monitor even approaching that has been consistently rejected by the HOF. The highest 20th century pitcher not in is Lee Smith (I personally think Smith is just as clear cut HOFer as Glavine, but the writers seem to disagree).

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