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  • Lee smith!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2nd best closer of all time!

    Comment


    • I think we agree that Lee Smith has the second most saves of all time, but don't think that makes him the second best closer.

      In general, it's hard for us to show a lot of love to relief pitchers, although we have already elected Hoyt Wilhelm, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, and Goose Gossage. Bruce Sutter and Dan Quisenberry have picked up support also. If this project continues long enough Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman will have their share of supporters too.

      But Lee Smith is a controversial choice, although he did garner 3 votes last time (good for 21%).
      "Someone asked me if I took steroids. I said, 'No. I had a contract with Wheaties.'"
      --Bob Feller

      Comment


      • With a week to go, we've gotten 12 votes as I write this, and we've got four folks who voted last time yet to vote in this election. We can safely eliminate anyone with less than 8 votes, as too many things would have to happen for them to get in (change in an existing vote plus sweeping the remaining four voters despite none of them having the support of more than two last time being the most likely scenario). The folks with eight need to sweep the four remaining votes (and if one doesn't vote, sayonara this time), but none of them had the support of more than three last time.

        Perucho Cepeda is the sole player at 8 votes now who had the support of three of the remaining voters last time. If that outstanding voter goes for him, he's in, and an alternate path would be to get those three votes from last time plus a change in an existing ballot. So he's got a legitimate shot at election this time.

        There are a bunch of folks who have gotten eight votes so far who are supported by two of the four remaining voters. Since they need to pick up two votes, they're in a much tougher position and have to be seen as longshots this time. They are: Luis Aparicio, Ken Boyer, Home Run Johnson, Chuck Klein, and Dobie Moore.

        Edd Roush has eight votes so far, but the support of only one of the four yet to vote and Pete Browning has eight votes but the support of none of those yet to vote. Those two are extreme longshots.

        There are three guys at 9 votes, which means they need to get at least 75% of the remaining votes to be cast (unanimous if three or less are cast, 3 of 4 if 4 are cast). Kazuahisa Inao has the support of three of those yet to vote, and thus is in a good position to be elected, though it could unravel if one of his supporters fails to vote and the one who didn't support him votes that way again. Sam Rice has the support of two of the remaining voters to go with his nine votes, and thus only needs to pick up one vote somehow to make it. He's got a solid shot, but it's hardly a sure thing. Bid McPhee is the last one with nine votes so far, and he only had the support of one last time. He might pick up the support he needs, but he might not. He's somewhere around coin flip territory in terms of his chances.
        Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
        Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
        A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

        Comment


        • With twelve hours left in the voting, we have 15 ballots in, with 12 votes needed for election. If we get an additional voter, 12 votes will still be enough for election. However, nobody has the necessary 12 votes right now.

          The following players have eleven votes:

          Kazuhiso Inao
          Bid McPhee
          Edd Roush

          If someone switches a vote to one of those three players, if someone with a short ballot adds one of them to the ballot, or a new ballot lists one of those players, then that player will be elected.

          The following players have ten votes:

          Perucho Cepeda
          Chuck Klein
          Sam Rice

          Classic had both Cepeda and Rice on his last ballot. If Classic posts a ballot - which, given his computer problems, is not certain - then Cepeda and Rice would climb up to 11 votes, which would be one short of induction. In that case, one more vote for either of those two (either by a switch or an addition to a short ballot) would put that candidate in.

          Comment


          • Just a reminder that if anyone wants to change their ballot, they are welcome to do so--but please PM me with the change so I catch it. Thanks.

            Jim Albright
            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

            Comment


            • After it looked most all the election that Inao would make it after finishing one vote short twice in a row, it now appears he will once again fall short by one stinking vote. Sometimes, supporting Japanese candidates makes me think I at least have some idea how Sisyphus felt rolling that stone up the mountain, knowing he wouldn't get over the top and he'd have to do it all over the next day. Frustrating.
              Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
              Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
              A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

              Comment


              • I noted on my ballot that I would provide some arguments for Jimmy Sheckard's inclusion in the BBFHOF.

                First, we note that Sheckard had a high number of All-Star-type seasons, which we define as having 20+ win shares. I make adjustments for season length, but they won't increase Sheckard's totals in this case anyway. Sheckard had 11 such seasons; I'll make a list of all major league position players who had at least 11 such seasons.

                Bobby Wallace - 12 seasons
                Jimmy Sheckard - 11 seasons
                Sam Rice - 11 seasons
                Rafael Palmeiro - 11 seasons
                Darrell Evans - 11 seasons

                Every major league position player with at least 11 seasons with 20+ win shares (adjusting for season length) is either in the BBFHOF or made at least five ballots in this election - except Sheckard.

                A Hall of Famer usually has at least a couple of great seasons, MVP-candidate-type seasons. Three or more such seasons is a good argument in favor of a player; two seasons can be helpful in other cases. For position players, these are seasons with 30+ win shares. I'll adjust for season length, but this adjustment does not add to Sheckard's totals. So let's see how the above players do.

                Wallace and Rice - 0 seasons with 30+ win shares
                Evans - 1 season with 30+ win shares
                Palmeiro and Sheckard - 3 seasons with 30+ win shares.

                Palmeiro's use of steroids has kept him off several ballots in the past, and may have kept him out of the BBFHOF. This makes Sheckard the only clean position player in MLB history with at least 11 All-Star-type seasons and at least 2 MVP-candidate-type seasons who is not in the BBFHOF (with the exception of those who are not yet eligible). He probably should be getting at least one vote.

                For the record, there are three clean position players with at least 10 All-Star-type seasons and at least three MVP-candidate-type seasons: Sheckard, Bobby Bonds, and George J. Burns. In any case, most players with the number of 20-win-share seasons and 30-win-share seasons that Sheckard has are already in the BBFHOF.

                -----

                Let's also take a look at Sheckard's overall win share marks. Sheckard is at a minor disadvantage, as he debuted in 1897, and the 154-game schedule was not firmly established until 1904. So we'll adjust Sheckard's marks to 154-game schedules.

                With these adjustments, Sheckard comes up with 349 career win shares, 102 in his best three seasons, and 137 in his best five consecutive seasons. Here are the MLB outfielders who are closest in these win share marks.

                Lou Brock: 348-91-134
                Goose Goslin: 355-93-147
                Max Carey: 351-85-133
                Andre Dawson: 340-83-132 [351-94-143 with adjustment for the 1981 strike]
                Dwight Evans: 347-86-122 [358-99-133 with strike adjustment]

                Of these five most similar OFs, four are in the BBFHOF, and Dwight Evans has solid support, with six votes in the most recent election. By these measures, Sheckard is in BBFHOF territory.

                -----

                We should also note that Sheckard may very well be the best defensive left fielder ever; at the very least, he's in the top two among major league LFs. Bill James lists defensive win shares in the outfield; due to a lack of data for most of major league history, he's not able to break them down into LF, CF, and RF.

                Jimmy Sheckard had 18160 innings in the outfield; he earned 66.3 defensive win shares, at a rate of 3.65 DWS per 1000 innings. Al Simmons played 18638 innings in the OF, with 69.0 defensive win shares, at a rate of 3.70 DWS per 1000 innings. However, Simmons' slight advantage may be due entirely to the fact that he got to play a couple of seasons in center field before Mule Haas forced him into left. Sheckard, on the other hand, always seemed to join teams with already had outstanding defensive players in center field. He started in Brooklyn, which already had Mike Griffin in center. He moved to Baltimore; Steve even better defensively than Griffin. He returned to Brooklyn, where Fielder Jones had moved to center. When he joined the Cubs, they had Jimmy Slagle in center.

                Who would be the third best defensive LF ever? We'll restrict our consideration to players with at least 9000 defensive innings in the outfield, since both Sheckard and Simmons had at least twice as many innings there. Fred Clarke had 64.1 career DWS in the outfield - but he earned them at a rate of only 3.32 DWS per 1000 innings. Joe Kelley did better at 3.57 DWS per 1000 innings - but he only had 44.7 DWS in the outfield over his career. Sheckard and Simmons were easily the best two defensive LF in major league history, and Sheckard just might be number one.

                -----

                Being the best defensive player ever at your position isn't enough for BBFHOF membership unless you're close otherwise. If you look at the number of good and great seasons that Sheckard had, well, most players with those numbers are in the BBFHOF. If you look at his win share marks - most outfielders with similar marks are in the BBFHOF as well. Sheckard is 112nd in black ink, and 147th in gray ink. The black ink is a good mark. While the gray ink might be borderline, his defensive prowess is more than enough to make up for such a minor gap; both SABR and STATS named him to their Gold Glove team for the first decade of the 1900s.

                Sheckard was elected to the Hall of Merit as the first-place candidate in the 1930 election - and that was decades before players began to get in with 35% of fewer of all possible points, and appearing on a minority of ballots. That's another good reason to consider voting for Sheckard.

                I've seen people criticize Sheckard for his inconsistency. However, Sheckard kept finding a way to earn 20+ win shares a season, year after year, doing so 11 times. I've read a comment from one person saying that an OPS+ of 120 for a corner outfielder is weak, and that the only way he or she could vote for such a player would be for that player to be the best defensive corner outfielder of all time. Well, Sheckard may very well have been the best defensive corner outfielder of all time. (As a comparison, Roberto Clemente had 59.5 career DWS, at a rate of 2.87 DWS per 1000 innings in the outfield.)

                Sheckard did enough to earn election into the BBFHOF. I urge voters to at least consider his case when making out their ballots for the upcoming election.

                Comment


                • Scheckard was one who I was considering this time, but went with others instead, one of the things in their favor was his low popularity. I was one who bought the "if Ryan, why not Scheckard" argument, since Scheckard by metrics described in your latest post (and somewhere else that I looked...it's been a while, can't remember where...bb-ref maybe?) is actually ahead of Ryan.

                  He will be there next time. If we elect no one, it's time to shake up the ballot again anyway, rethinking how some players made it and not others.
                  "Someone asked me if I took steroids. I said, 'No. I had a contract with Wheaties.'"
                  --Bob Feller

                  Comment


                  • We elected two this election, Bid McPhee and Edd Roush.
                    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                    Comment


                    • We've elected two this election: Bid McPhee and Edd Roush. We had sixteen valid ballots and the complete results are as follows:

                      Code:
                      player.....	votes	pct		player.....	votes	pct
                      McPhee, Bid…………	12	75.0		Aparicio, Luis……….	10	62.5
                      Roush, Edd………….	12	75.0		Bando, Sal…………..	1	6.3
                      Inao, Kazuhisa……..11	68.8		Beckley, Jake……….	10	62.5
                      Aparicio, Luis……….	10	62.5		Bender, Chief……….	3	18.8
                      Beckley, Jake……….	10	62.5		Bessho, Akira……….	7	43.8
                      Boyer, Ken…………..	10	62.5		Bond, Tommy……….	1	6.3
                      Cepeda, Perucho… 10	62.5		Bonds, Bobby……….	3	18.8
                      Klein, Chuck…………	10	62.5		Bottomley, Jim…….	2	12.5
                      Rice, Sam…………….	10	62.5		Boyer, Ken…………..	10	62.5
                      Sutter, Bruce……….	10	62.5		Bresnahan, Roger…	2	12.5
                      Grimes, Burleigh…..	9	56.3		Browning, Pete…….	8	50.0
                      Johnson, HR.......	9	56.3		Canseco, Jose……	1	6.3
                      Moore, Dobie……….	9	56.3		Caruthers, Bob……	8	50.0
                      Wallace, Bobby……	9	56.3		Cepeda, Perucho…	10	62.5
                      Browning, Pete…….	8	50.0		Childs, Cupid………..	2	12.5
                      Caruthers, Bob……	8	50.0		Cravath, Gavvy……	1	6.3
                      Joss, Addie…………	8	50.0		Cuyler, Kiki…………..	4	25.0
                      Perez, Tony…………	8	50.0		Day, Leon……………	3	18.8
                      Welch, Mickey……	8	50.0		Doyle, Larry…………	7	43.8
                      Bessho, Akira……….	7	43.8		Evans, Darrell………	5	31.3
                      Doyle, Larry…………	7	43.8		Evans, Dwight………	6	37.5
                      Palmeiro, Rafael……	7	43.8		Faber, Red…………..	6	37.5
                      Quisenberry, Dan…	7	43.8		Franco, John………	1	6.3
                      Ruffing, Red…………	7	43.8		Glasscock, Jack……	4	25.0
                      Start, Joe…………….	7	43.8		Gomez, Lefty……….	3	18.8
                      Evans, Dwight………	6	37.5		Grimes, Burleigh……	9	56.3
                      Faber, Red…………..	6	37.5		Hernandez, Keith…	4	25.0
                      Ochiai, Hiromitsu	6	37.5		Inao, Kazuhisa……	11	68.8
                      Oms, Alejandro…….	6	37.5		Johnson, Bob……….	1	6.3
                      Rice, Jim……………..	6	37.5		Johnson, HR	9	56.3
                      Ryan, Jimmy…………	6	37.5		Joss, Addie…………	8	50.0
                      Walker, Larry……….	6	37.5		Kingman, Dave…….	1	6.3
                      Wilson, Hack………	6	37.5		Klein, Chuck…………	10	62.5
                      Evans, Darrell………	5	31.3		Leach, Tommy……	2	12.5
                      Rixey, Eppa………….	5	31.3		Lombardi, Ernie…….	3	18.8
                      Sewell, Joe………….	5	31.3		Manush, Heinie…….	4	25.0
                      Smith, Lee……………	5	31.3		Maranville, Rabbit…	1	6.3
                      Cuyler, Kiki…………..	4	25.0		Martinez, Edgar……	4	25.0
                      Glasscock, Jack……	4	25.0		Mathews, Bobby…	1	6.3
                      Hernandez, Keith…	4	25.0		McCormick, Jim…….	1	6.3
                      Manush, Heinie…….	4	25.0		McPhee, Bid…………	12	75.0
                      Martinez, Edgar……	4	25.0		McVey, Cal………….	4	25.0
                      McVey, Cal………….	4	25.0		Moore, Dobie……….	9	56.3
                      Pearce, Dickey……	4	25.0		Mullane, Tony………	2	12.5
                      Wynn, Jimmy………	4	25.0		Nettles, Graig………	1	6.3
                      Bender, Chief……….	3	18.8		Ochiai, Hiromitsu…	6	37.5
                      Bonds, Bobby……….	3	18.8		O'Doul, Lefty……….	2	12.5
                      Day, Leon……………	3	18.8		Oliva, Tony………….	1	6.3
                      Gomez, Lefty……….	3	18.8		Oliver, Al…………….	2	12.5
                      Lombardi, Ernie…….	3	18.8		Oms, Alejandro…….	6	37.5
                      Waner, Lloyd……….	3	18.8		Palmeiro, Rafael……	7	43.8
                      Willis, Vic…………….	3	18.8		Pearce, Dickey……	4	25.0
                      Bottomley, Jim……	2	12.5		Perez, Tony…………	8	50.0
                      Bresnahan, Roger…	2	12.5		Pike,  Lip……………..	1	6.3
                      Childs, Cupid………..	2	12.5		Poles, Spotswood	2	12.5
                      Leach, Tommy……	2	12.5		Quisenberry, Dan…	7	43.8
                      Mullane, Tony………	2	12.5		Rice, Jim……………..	6	37.5
                      O'Doul, Lefty……….	2	12.5		Rice, Sam…………….	10	62.5
                      Oliver, Al…………….	2	12.5		Richardson, Hardy	1	6.3
                      Poles, Spotswood	2	12.5		Rixey, Eppa………….	5	31.3
                      Bando, Sal…………..	1	6.3		Rosen, Al…………….	1	6.3
                      Bond, Tommy……….	1	6.3		Roush, Edd………….	12	75.0
                      Canseco, Jose……	1	6.3		Ruffing, Red…………	7	43.8
                      Cravath, Gavvy……	1	6.3		Ryan, Jimmy…………	6	37.5
                      Franco, John……….	1	6.3		Sewell, Joe………….	5	31.3
                      Johnson, Bob……….	1	6.3		Sheckard, Jimmy…	1	6.3
                      Kingman, Dave…….	1	6.3		Smith, Lee……………	5	31.3
                      Maranville, Rabbit…	1	6.3		Smith, Reggie………	1	6.3
                      Mathews, Bobby…	1	6.3		Start, Joe…………….	7	43.8
                      McCormick, Jim…….	1	6.3		Sutter, Bruce……….	10	62.5
                      Nettles, Graig………	1	6.3		Veach, Bobby………	1	6.3
                      Oliva, Tony………….	1	6.3		Walker, Larry……….	6	37.5
                      Pike,  Lip……………..	1	6.3		Wallace, Bobby……	9	56.3
                      Richardson, Hardy.	1	6.3		Waner, Lloyd……….	3	18.8
                      Rosen, Al…………….	1	6.3		Welch, Mickey……	8	50.0
                      Sheckard, Jimmy…	1	6.3		Willis, Vic…………….	3	18.8
                      Smith, Reggie………	1	6.3		Wilson, Hack………	6	37.5
                      Veach, Bobby………	1	6.3		Wynn, Jimmy………	4	25.0
                      Youngs, Ross……….	1	6.3		Youngs, Ross……….	1	6.3
                      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                      Comment


                      • We will have the contributors ballot next election, and in the next few days I will create a voter's guide for that ballot.

                        Jim Albright
                        Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                        Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                        A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                        Comment


                        • For those who support Chuck Klein, please consider this from AG2004's Keltner List review of his case:

                          9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

                          Klein’s peak came in the heart of a hitter’s era, and his home field at that point was one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Both inflate his raw numbers. Klein had a BA/HR/RBI per 154 games of .397/44/158 in his 578 games in the Baker Bowl, and a BA/HR/RBI per 154 games of .277/18/80 in his 1175 games at all other parks.
                          In short, Klein was a beast in the Baker Bowl, and pretty much a zero outside of it. To me, that's not a great ballplayer.

                          Jim Albright
                          Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                          Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                          A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                          Comment


                          • --I'm almost convinced on Sheckard, but the Win Shares numbers don't seem to match up to the more traditonal ones. Sheckard only had 2 seasons over 140 OPS+. Where that third WS MVP quality season comes from I'm not sure. He only had 9 seasons over 110 OPS+, which seems like a bare minimum for an All Star caliber season from a LFer, while WS says 12 AS caliber seasons. He must be getting a HUGE boost from defense and baserunning. More than I'm convinced is appropriate for any LFer. Moreover Sheckard's best seasons came during a historically low period for the NL when the fledgling AL was stripping the league of much of its best talent. Sheckard seems to be a player for whom WS is a perfect match and I'd have to see some non-WS evidence before I can pull the trigger on him.

                            Comment


                            • Actually, I don't think I need a voter's guide for the contributors. Two posts ought to suffice. Here's the first:

                              MLB contributors on my ballot

                              Pioneer

                              Dr. Jobe His invention of the Tommy John surgery has saved countless pitching careers, including, of course, Tommy John's.

                              Dickey Pearce He was at least a good player in the pre 1871 era, and maybe even great. Add to that he invented bunting and made shortstop a key defensive position, I think he deserves a spot.

                              -----------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Media
                              Harry Caray Though his status as a Chicago baseball mainstay is important, lots of announcers have that qualification and I'm not voting for them. What sets Harry apart in my mind is his role in popularizing the use of "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" for the seventh inning stretch. Put the two together, and I think he qualifies.

                              Buck Canel announced 42 World Series to the Latin American audience via the Cabalgata Deportivo Gillette, and was the first Spanish-language broadcaster to win the Frick Award

                              Ty Tyson He is the first to regularly broadcast team games over radio

                              Felo Ramirez became Canel's partner in 1950 just five years after his on-air debut in Cuba, broadcast 31 World Series and 40 Caribbean Series to the Spanish-speaking world

                              David Neft Headed up the enormous and enormously important project of creating the first modern baseball encyclopedia, the first Macmillan Encyclopedia

                              Major League managers
                              The major league managers I think I'd put in, together with their Manager's success points (as calculated by Bill James this time) and any comments I have:

                              Billy Martin 29 points .His behavior was poor, and he wore out his welcome quickly no matter where he went. But if you wanted to win right now, there was nobody better while he was around managing.

                              -------------------------------------------------------------------
                              Major League executives

                              Paul Krichell The man who scouted many of the best players to stock Weiss' Yankee farm system.
                              Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                              Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                              A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                              Comment


                              • Here's the second:

                                Contributors from outside MLB on my ballot

                                Japanese managers
                                Success points are a Bill James creation. The numbers given are not discounted in any way, and are from a system I modeled on James' system, but isn't identical to it.

                                Kazuto Tsuruoka Manager's Success Points: 70
                                He is Japan's winningest manager, with 1807 regular season victories to his credit as well as a .609 winning percentage. His teams were over .500 in 21 of the 23 seasons he managed, and he won 11 pennants. In those 11 pennants was a stretch of 4 pennants in five years and another stretch of 4 pennants in six years.

                                Shigeru Mizuhara Manager's Success Points: 62
                                He won eight pennants in nine years from 1951 to 1959 for the Yomiuri Giants. He also won four Japan Series in the period 1951 to 1955 and won a pennant for the Flyers.
                                -----------------------------------------------------------------------

                                other contributors on my ballot:

                                Ed Bolden Owned two franchises (not at the same time) in the Philadelphia area, Hilldale and later, the Philadelphia Stars in addition to being the founder and commissioner of the Eastern Colored League, all while holding down a day job as a postal employee. For more about him, see this post: Ed Bolden

                                Vic Harris Won seven pennants with the Homestead Grays, 5 of them consecutively. He had a lot of talent, but with that talent comes egos, and he managed to keep them on top. Also a talented player. Probably a good analogy is Joe Torre. For more about him, see this post: Vic Harris

                                Matsutaro Shoriki: The father of Japanese professional baseball. See this post for more about him: Matsutaro Shoriki

                                Lefty O'Doul A pretty good player who adds the fact he was a key player in getting professional baseball established in Japan. See this post for more about him: Lefty O’Doul
                                Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                                Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                                A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                                Comment

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