Juan Gonzalez a Hall of Famer?

[Mariano Rivera]

He has 434 career homers and a .295 career batting average. He has been very injury prone the last few years, including this year as well. I know if he retired right now he would not get into the Hall of Fame because he was a lock 5 or 6 years ago to at least hit 600 or more career bombs. Tell me what you think.

[Windy City Fan]

Pros:

2 MVP Awards with two more top 5 finishes and another top ten finish.
2 Home Run titles and a very good chance at 500.
Averages over 90 RBI a season.
Good average for a slugger at .290
Career OPS+ of 133
Still young enough to add to his numbers.

Cons:
Career has faded in recent years, and his counting stats may not look as impressive when stacked up against contemparies like Sosa, Bonds, McGwire, Griffey, and Rodriguez.
22 active players are ahead of him in OPS+, including non HOFers like Brian Giles, Edgar Martinez, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreau, and Jim Edmonds.
Never hit 50 HRs in the home run happy era he plays in.
A little light in black ink.

Overall, I'd say Juan has a chance to get elected. Its quite possible the writers will look at his stats and say, “Oooh, a career .290 hitter with 500 HRs and a boat load of RBIs!” Personally, I'd say no if he retired right now, and if he finishes his career like I think he will, I'd probably be sitting on the fence. If he finishes stronger than I expect him to, he'll be a lock.

[DoubleX]

The 2 MVPs look really nice, but that doesn't always sway the fickle voters. If it did, then Dale Murphy wouldn't be in danger of falling off the ballot next year.

[Bump11]

Borderline for Gonzalez

Yeah DoubleX the 2 MVPs do look good. He's had a couple of .330-45-130 type seasons in his career. But to be a Hal member you have to be consistent your entire career, and for the last 4 years he has not been doing that. So here's what I say-- if he gets to 500 dingers, yes, if not, no.

[Cougar]

If he's finished, I think he'll have a hard time making it.

If he's got one more good year in him (say, .280, 35, 100), I'd upgrade him to probable.

If he's got two more, then he hits 500 and he's a lock.

I think it's hard to project him now because his health and motivation are such question marks.

His case is wholly on offensive stats; he's a mediocre fielder and baserunner, a clubhouse cipher, and a postseason bust. The two MVP's are nice, but tell it to Dale Murphy (who should be in, by the way).

[four tool]

I'm on the fence about Juan, but Murphy should be in if Juan even gets seriously considered!

[improbus]

I'm having a hard time deciding whether Juan's HOF material. Really, I think he's very similar to Edgar Martinez in many ways, with Juan having 100 more dingers, but with Edgar having a massively higher OBP. I think the two MVP's, and the fact that he may be able to play a few more years work in Juan's favor, but I agree with most everyone else, if he retired today, I would have to say no.
PS. Why aren't people haggling over Juan being primarily a DH over the last 10 years? It has been the hot topic with Edgar, but I haven't seen it with Juan. Usually, I think the a HOF either has to be the absolute best at what he did over at least eight to ten years, or be really, really, good in more than one area. So, for example, Rickey is a HOF because he was the best basestealer over a long period, but Vince Coleman isn't because he didn't last long enough, the same goes with Roger over Doc Gooden, Randy Johnson over Kevin Brown, and Sammy over Luis Gonzalez. Was Juan more dominant over his period than Ken Griffey Jr.? Frank Thomas? Alex Rodriguez? Manny Ramirez? even Alvert Belle? So, if he's not totally freakish and better than them, then he better have done something else to deserve the hall, such as Pudge's defense, Raffy's Gold Gloves and 500 home runs, Jeter's rings and big game presence, Griffey's glove and the list goes on. There are too many guys putting up numbers like Juan Gonzalez to let them all in, so there has to be some sort of new criterion, because if we let in Juan, what happens when guys like Brian Giles and Richie Sexson come up? They will have 400 home runs, around a .300 average, tons of RBI's, a good OBP., etc...., but they can't all get in. Again, as I said with Edgar, odds are, if Juan goes in, someone gets left out, and who will that be? Jeff Bagwell? Frank Thomas? It's a tough call.

[Chadwick]

Juan Gonzalez's MVP seasons were 1996 and 1998. Below is where Gonzalez ranked among AL players in win shares for those seasons.

1996 American League
34 Alex Rodriguez, Seattle
32 Chuck Knoblauch, Minnesota
31 Roberto Alomar, Baltimore
31 Albert Belle, Cleveland
30 Rafael Palmeiro, Baltimore
29 Mark McGwire, Oakland
29 Mo Vaughn, Boston
28 Brady Anderson, Baltimore
28 Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle
28 Frank Thomas, Chicago
28 Jim Thome, Cleveland
26 Bernie Williams, New York
24 Pat Hentgen, Toronto
23 Kenny Lofton, Cleveland
23 Edgar Martinez, Seattle
23 Manny Ramirez, Cleveland
23 Ivan Rodriguez, Texas
22 Jay Buhner, Seattle
22 Ken Hill, Texas
22 Paul O'Neill, New York
22 Cal Ripken Jr., Baltimore
22 Tim Salmon, California
21 Juan Gonzalez, Texas
21 Rusty Greer, Texas
21 Bobby Higginson, Detroit
21 Tino Martinez, New York
21 Charles Nagy, Cleveland
21 Tony Phillips, Chicago

1998 American League
37 Albert Belle, Chicago
30 Alex Rodriguez, Seattle
29 Ken Griffey Jr., Seattle
29 Jose Offerman, Kansas City
27 Scott Brosius, New York
27 Nomar Garciaparra, Boston
27 Derek Jeter, New York
27 Ivan Rodriguez, Texas
27 Bernie Williams, New York
26 Paul O'Neill, New York
25 Roger Clemens, Toronto
25 Ray Durham, Chicago
25 Juan Gonzalez, Texas
25 Manny Ramirez, Cleveland
25 Frank Thomas, Chicago
25 Mo Vaughn, Boston

So, according to win shares, Gonzalez tied as the 23rd most valuable player in 1996 and tied as the 11th most valuable player in 1998. The point being, not that JuanGone was necessarily the 23rd or 11th best player in the league, but that Gonzalez was one of many worthy (and perhaps more worthy) candidates. It isn't as if he was substantially more identifiable over hitters like Albert Belle, Mo Vaughn, Frank Thomas, etc. during those seasons.

This isn't to say necessarily that Gonzalez was undeserving of his two awards (though you could certainly be forgiven for drawing that conclusion from this data). Rather to say that an argument can be made that Gonzalez's awards could arguably have been mistakes. He did win the MVP. Twice. But as we all know from other BBWAA "awards" - the Hall of Fame elections, for example - the writers do make mistakes and are prone to prejudices.

[Windy City Fan]

I'm on the fence about Juan, but Murphy should be in if Juan even gets seriously considered!

Dale Murphy

OPS+121
Average .265 (.267)
OBP .346 (.336)
SLG .469 (.398)
SB 161 (70%)
K to BB Ratio 1:1.77
Black Ink 31
Grey Ink 147
2 MVP (two other top ten finishes, 7th and 9th)
5 GG
Range Factor 2.25 (1.96)
Fielding Perct. .983 (.980)

Juan Gonzalez

OPS+133
Average .296 (.270)
OBP .344 (.341)
SLG .563 (.425)
SB 26 (59%)
K to BB Ratio 1:2.80
Black Ink 17
Grey Ink 105
2 MVP (three other top ten finishes, 4th, 5th, and 9th)
No GG
Range Factor 1.86 (1.79)
Fielding Perct. .986 (.981)

Both didn't take a lot of walks, though Murph was much better at it. Both struck out a lot.

Murphy was clearly a better baserunner (he even had a 30-30 season) and fielder (bonus points for being a centerfielder). However, since Murphy wasn't a great fielder or a great baserunner, I was prepared to argue that Juan's advantages in Batting Average and Slugging Percentage, along with his superior rankings in the MVP voting were enought to tilt the advantage to him.

Then I looked up Black Ink and Grey Ink scores. Juan is no longer a serious canidate to lead the league in any major offensive catagories, so its fair to compare them in Black Ink, and probably Grey Ink too. Murphy blows Juan Gone away. Its fairly obvious that Murphy was more of a premier player in his day than Gonzalez was in his.

I've never really supported Murphy's canidacy for the hall, but I was leaning towards a hesitant yes for Gonzalez. Now I'm not sure what to think.

[Chadwick]

Murphy stacks up well against his contemporaries and against the historic norms for Hall of Fame center fielders. The same can't be said for Gonzalez. I have Murphy as a "yes" and the most deserving center fielder available. Gonzalez will be far down the list of corner outfielders/DH's when he becomes eligible. Way down the list.

[J W]

I think Igor should just retire now and put this whole argument to rest .

If he winds up being elected, I say it would be a fair comparison to when certain certain sluggers from the 30's were elected, who may not cut it for many people.

As of right now, Gonzalez gets lumped into a group with Jose Canseco and George Foster. But here are the most statistically similar players to Gonzalez through age 33:

- Albert Belle
- Ken Griffey Jr.
- Duke Snider
- Jim Rice
- Orlando Cepeda
- Jeff Bagwell
- Barry Bonds
- Sammy Sosa
- Jose Canseco
- Frank Robinson

...not a bad list, really. Juan-Gone's biggest thing going for him is that he started playing at age 19. I cannot stress enough the importance of playing well early in age, to someone's HOF case. Gonzalez has the leeway in this day and age to hide himself behind the DH position and collect pretty much anything he wants... 500 HRs... 500 doubles... 1500 strikeouts (well)... it all comes down to how much he wants it.

Gonzalez is not Dale Murphy, and he is also outside my cutline. I'll keep his door open though if he can produce to age 40.

[Windy City Fan]

That's a pretty good list actually. Everyone there is a HOFer (Snider, Robinson, Cepeda), a future HOFer (Bonds, Sosa, Bagwell, Griffey) or a borderline canidate with a reasonable argument (Rice, Belle). I'd put 8 or 9 of the ten in the hall, with the lone exception being Canseco (I continually waver on Rice).

[Chadwick]

WCF

Your thoughts on that list of similar players seem to mirror my own.

Re: Belle and Rice, however. Their cases are similar, but I look at Belle's sudden departure from the game as premature since his skills were otherwise in tact. Rice, on the other hand, simply declined as he aged. In short, if not for the debilitating arthritis in his hip, Belle's career would easily have eclipsed Rice's and not been comparative to it had he been permitted to age normally. I suppose that's why I've got Belle slotted just ahead of Rice.

[four tool]

Rice doesn't cut it as a hall of famer. I saw him play and agree that he's a better than average hitter, but not a great hitter--Ted Williams said that and he should know. Also, hall of fame for a hitter who couldn't maintain a .300 average with Fenway as his home park? I don't think so.(Yaz is the lone exception to that rule and he got to 3000 hits).

[dgarza]

Rice doesn't cut it as a hall of famer. I saw him play and agree that he's a better than average hitter, but not a great hitter--Ted Williams said that and he should know. Also, hall of fame for a hitter who couldn't maintain a .300 average with Fenway as his home park? I don't think so.(Yaz is the lone exception to that rule and he got to 3000 hits).

Hitting alone, Rice looks better than Yaz on season avgs.
But I don't want to get off track.

If Juan was retired, he'd have the highest AVG for all major non-HOF sluggers.
I'd have no problem with him in at this point. It doesn't seem like his career numbers have been milked yet. They are all pretty much competetive years. The last few years have not been bad, even if not typical. That looks good to me, aslong as he knows when is when, like this year.