Juan Gonzalez a Hall of Famer?

[Windy City Fan]

WCF

Your thoughts on that list of similar players seem to mirror my own.

Re: Belle and Rice, however. Their cases are similar, but I look at Belle's sudden departure from the game as premature since his skills were otherwise in tact. Rice, on the other hand, simply declined as he aged. In short, if not for the debilitating arthritis in his hip, Belle's career would easily have eclipsed Rice's and not been comparative to it had he been permitted to age normally. I suppose that's why I've got Belle slotted just ahead of Rice.

I completely agree that Belle has a better case than Rice. However, I think their actual chances of making it into the hall are about the same since Belle is one of baseball's all time jerks. If he was a warm and cuddly figure (i.e. Kirby Puckett) then he gets in on the first ballot.

On Rice I constantly change my mind. One day he is a HOFer, the next I'm not so sure.

[nightal]

I'm on the fence about Juan, but Murphy should be in if Juan even gets seriously considered!

Short and to the point. And totally correct

[micsmith]

From 1976-1989, Murphy had 6749 At Bats, which is right around how many At Bats Juan Gonzalez has now (6555). Murphy played for another four years, but he really didn't pile much more onto his career stat totals. Here is a comparison of the career totals of Gonzalez and Murphy through 1989:

Runs: Murphy (1065); Juan (1061)
Hits: Murphy (1820); Juan (1936)
2B: Murphy (292); Juan (388)
3B: Murphy (37); Juan (25)
HR: Murphy (354); Juan (434)
RBI: Murphy (1088); Juan (1404)
TB: Murphy (3248); Juan (3676)
BB: Murphy (871); Juan (457)
SO: Murphy (1497); Juan (1273)
SB: Murphy (151); Juan (26)
Avg: Murphy (.270); Juan (.295)

I'm not sure if Gonzalez deserved his MVP awards of if he is a future Hall of Famer (I think he's on pace right now, but he needs a few more healthy seasons). But it's clear that Juan is a much better hitter than Murphy was. He has more hits in fewer at bats and a substantially higher batting average with far fewer strikeouts. There is not doubt that he is a better power hitter as well. Murphy's advantages are in his baserunning but not his fielding. Murphy's career fielding average is almost identical to Juan's. Murphy was an all-star 7 times (Juan only 3 times), which indicates that he was a better player relative to who he was playing against, but it doesn't mean that he was a better player than Juan.

Despite two MVP awards I don't think Murphy is a Hall of Famer. But if Juan can only get healthy and play a few more full seasons - they don't even have to be great seasons - he could pad his career numbers enough to look like a certain Hall of Famer. He turns 35 next month, which means he might have two or three more good seasons in him. He needs about 100 more home runs and 300 RBI to be in the top 20 of those two career categories. If he can get close, I don't see how you could keep him out of the Hall.

[DoubleX]

From 1976-1989, Murphy had 6749 At Bats, which is right around how many At Bats Juan Gonzalez has now (6555). Murphy played for another four years, but he really didn't pile much more onto his career stat totals. Here is a comparison of the career totals of Gonzalez and Murphy through 1989:

Runs: Murphy (1065); Juan (1061)
Hits: Murphy (1820); Juan (1936)
2B: Murphy (292); Juan (388)
3B: Murphy (37); Juan (25)
HR: Murphy (354); Juan (434)
RBI: Murphy (1088); Juan (1404)
TB: Murphy (3248); Juan (3676)
BB: Murphy (871); Juan (457)
SO: Murphy (1497); Juan (1273)
SB: Murphy (151); Juan (26)
Avg: Murphy (.270); Juan (.295)

I'm not sure if Gonzalez deserved his MVP awards of if he is a future Hall of Famer (I think he's on pace right now, but he needs a few more healthy seasons). But it's clear that Juan is a much better hitter than Murphy was. He has more hits in fewer at bats and a substantially higher batting average with far fewer strikeouts. There is not doubt that he is a better power hitter as well. Murphy's advantages are in his baserunning but not his fielding. Murphy's career fielding average is almost identical to Juan's. Murphy was an all-star 7 times (Juan only 3 times), which indicates that he was a better player relative to who he was playing against, but it doesn't mean that he was a better player than Juan.

Despite two MVP awards I don't think Murphy is a Hall of Famer. But if Juan can only get healthy and play a few more full seasons - they don't even have to be great seasons - he could pad his career numbers enough to look like a certain Hall of Famer. He turns 35 next month, which means he might have two or three more good seasons in him. He needs about 100 more home runs and 300 RBI to be in the top 20 of those two career categories. If he can get close, I don't see how you could keep him out of the Hall.

A few things to note that may distinguish Murphy from Gonzalez for HoF purposes.

First, Murphy played a ton of CF, a much more demanding position with lower offensive expectations than RF and LF. After the five or six all-time great CF's (Mays, Cobb, Mantle, DiMaggio, Speaker, and Snider), there is a huge drop off in the quality of all-time CF (with the exception of Griffey Jr., whose career is after Murphy's). After this group, the offensive statistics of most of the CF in the Hall are not nearly as impressive as the stastics of the corner OFs in the Hall. So the Hall of Fame standard for Murphy is considerably different than for Juan Gonzalez who is competing against dozens of all-time great corner OFs with gaudy offensive stats.

Second, the disparity in power numbers between Murphy and Gonzalez is misleading because of the era in which the two played. Gonzalez hit his stride during the homer happy mid 90's - today. Murphy was at his best during the homer deficient 80's when hitting 36 or 37 homeruns was enough to lead the league (which was the case when Murphy led the league in '84 and '85). Both Murphy and Gonzalez have led the league in homeruns twice, but Murphy finished 9 times in the top ten, whereas Gonzalez has done it 7 times (and will be hard-pressed to do it twice more to match Murphy).

Third, it's very, very misleading to say their a push defensively. Again, Murphy played the far more demanding CF and was a 5 time gold glover.

Murphy suffered through a disastrous decline in his early 30's the easily make one forget just how dominant and good he was throughout the 80's. I believe if Murphy had hit those 2 extra homeruns to get to 400, his candidacy would be getting much more support. I don't think anyone would argue that Gonzalez was the best player of the 90's, but I think a plausible argument could be made that Murphy was the best player of the 80's, which shows that Murphy was the more dominant and standout player among his peers.

[four tool]

DoubleXX,

That's it in a nutshell, counting numbers always need to be compared to league averages, etc. The more anyone looks, the more Murphy rises above Juan at least at this point in Juan's career.

[Windy City Fan]

While I am taking a second look at Murphy and his hall canidacy, I would never say he was the best player of the 80's. Mike Schimdt, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ryne Sandburg, Cal Ripken, and Ozzie Smith are all ahead of him as position players. I'd probably rank Carlton Fisk and maybe Gary Carter ahead of him as well.

[DoubleX]

While I am taking a second look at Murphy and his hall canidacy, I would never say he was the best player of the 80's. Mike Schimdt, Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, Ryne Sandburg, Cal Ripken, and Ozzie Smith are all ahead of him as position players. I'd probably rank Carlton Fisk and maybe Gary Carter ahead of him as well.

I wouldn't say Murphy was the best player of the 80's either, but I believe he deserves to be part of the best player of the 80's discussion more than Gonzalez does for best player of the 90's.

[Freakshow]

When you look at context, Murphy is clearly ahead of JuanGon. Murphy has large leads in Black ink (31-17) and Gray Ink (147-105).

Top 6 years in OPS+ are very similar:

Dale 156-151-150-149-142-135
Juan 169-150-149-147-141-134

Murphy added dimensions of Fielding, baserunning, durability and leadership that Gonzalez could only dream of.

Unless JuanGon can come back and add a finishing kick to his career, it's not really close.

Win Shares tells a similar story, although I don't have the exact numbers with me now.

[Steffo]

IMHO, JuaGo will make the ballot, but will be a Lou Whitaker type of guy and fall of the ballot and miss being elected by the Vetrans Comittee, people will forget about him even though he is better than some already elected into the HOF..

[csh19792001]

IMHO, JuaGo will make the ballot, but will be a Lou Whitaker type of guy and fall of the ballot and miss being elected by the Vetrans Comittee, people will forget about him even though he is better than some already elected into the HOF..

Pluses-
One of the best RBI men in a long, long time. (where is he alltime in RBI/game?)
Good BA and SLG
Pretty good arm/range
Good postseason record

Minuses-
Basically everything else.
K's 3 times as much as he walked, atrocious OBP.
Poor speed/terrible SB numbers
RBI's are a stat as much of opportunity as anything- his career BA with RISP is actually LOWER than his career BA, which reinforces this idea (he had more opportunities/players on base than average, and he almost always chose to swing away).

[HDH]

Conditional

Regardless if he gets elected, he won't paticipate unless the following conditions are met:

Elected 1st year, 1st ballot, #1 on the ballot.
The uniform of the day is acceptable to him.
The walls are moved in.

[Mariano Rivera]

Don Mattingly was one of the best baseball players of the 1980's.

[al-lang]

Juan Gone will go...

Lively debate. Very good points and analysis by all. However, I think the point is moot, because Juan will hang around and DH until he gets 500 bombs which means automatic indunction. He's at 439 right now, he's only 35, and should eclipse the magical 500 by the age of 40. He will end up in Cleveland this year, and add another 15 to 20 to his career total...

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If you were to ask people in 1999 about the HoF chances of Juan Gonzales, Frank Thomas, and Griffey EVERYONE would have said they will fly into the HoF. These three won five MVP awards in the from 1993-1998. Now because of injuries and reduced production all three are somewhat iffy.

[Cougar]

Thomas and Griffey aren't iffy; they're locks.

For that matter Gonzo's still more likely than not right now; if he manages a couple more decent seasons he'll be a lock.