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  • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
    WAR is used in every serious baseball publication and/or media available.
    And it does not properly weight what really matters and that is production up on the scoreboard. It also assumes every first baseman is a bum because he can't play shortstop or center field. It also gives too much credit to those who take a walk and does not penalize those who miss twenty games a year.

    WAR is also based on a judgement and is not a statistic. And you don't need to make up or guess or estimate the ability or value of a replacement player if you have Garvey because the mythical dude won't ever be on the field.
    Your Second Base Coach
    Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5hCIvMule0

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
      And it does not properly weight what really matters and that is production up on the scoreboard. It also assumes every first baseman is a bum because he can't play shortstop or center field. It also gives too much credit to those who take a walk and does not penalize those who miss twenty games a year.

      WAR is also based on a judgement and is not a statistic. And you don't need to make up or guess or estimate the ability or value of a replacement player if you have Garvey because the mythical dude won't ever be on the field.
      You don't have any idea what you're talking about.
      "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
        And it does not properly weight what really matters and that is production up on the scoreboard. It also assumes every first baseman is a bum because he can't play shortstop or center field. It also gives too much credit to those who take a walk and does not penalize those who miss twenty games a year.

        WAR is also based on a judgement and is not a statistic. And you don't need to make up or guess or estimate the ability or value of a replacement player if you have Garvey because the mythical dude won't ever be on the field.
        Of course it penalizes those who miss twenty games. How do you think they largely quantify the "R" part in WAR?

        And it doesn't assume every 1B is a bum - just look at the runs saved numbers each year for Hernandez and Pujols. It is just quantifying what everybody has known for 100+ years about positional importance and scarcity. There is a reason tons of SS and 2B are in the HOF with numbers that 1B and LF could never make the HOF with.

        And most of it is not comparing to a hypothetical. Everything (minus replacement value) is compared to league average which is perfectly tangible.

        And the biggest thing you are missing is getting on base leads to putting runs on the scoreboard. RBI guys have nobody to drive in if nobody gets on base. WAR considers this as it should.

        Finally, it certainly does not give too much credit for walks. It gives .3 runs of production perwalk, compared to .8 for a hit. Don't you think a walk being less than half of a hit is reasonable? What do you want them to do? Ignore getting on base by walking altogether?

        There are a lot of issues with WAR: the accuracy of the defensive systems, quantifying catcher defense, LQ, etc. Quantifying walks, giving credit for positional adjustments, and docking people for missed time are not some of them.
        Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 02-25-2014, 02:28 PM.
        1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

        1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

        1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


        The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
        The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

        Comment


        • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
          You don't have any idea what you're talking about.
          I have trouble sometimes with WAR. I never know what version to use. And they keep changing the formula.

          Would you trust a player's batting average if one site had .249 and another had .294 ?

          And next year one went down ten clicks and the other one up five?
          Your Second Base Coach
          Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5hCIvMule0

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
            Where did he rank at the start of the 1987 season?

            Yup…. though so. HOF territory.
            He entered the Hall Of Fame ballot in 1993, though. Not in 1987.
            My top 10 players:

            1. Babe Ruth
            2. Barry Bonds
            3. Ty Cobb
            4. Ted Williams
            5. Willie Mays
            6. Alex Rodriguez
            7. Hank Aaron
            8. Honus Wagner
            9. Lou Gehrig
            10. Mickey Mantle

            Comment


            • Why are we talking about WAR again? the 60-80% of the BBWAA who voted him down every year never heard of it and I would say a vast majority of our 90% "NOs" in this poll don't use it or don't use it often.

              Turning this into a sabermetrics vs. Garvey issue is really missing the boat.
              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
              The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
                I have trouble sometimes with WAR. I never know what version to use. And they keep changing the formula.

                Would you trust a player's batting average if one site had .249 and another had .294 ?

                And next year one went down ten clicks and the other one up five?
                I don't know as much about it as Matt does. But the things you said were blatant falsities about things that are learned in the early stages if one reads up on WAR.
                "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
                  I keep looking for WAR on the line score up on the scoreboard and in the newspaper. Is it near the Runs, Hits and RBI?
                  No, but you can see it on the back of Topps cards now - right next to those other stats. The reason it isn't in boxscores, is because nobody quantifies WAR at a game by game basis. I bet WPA is in boxscores in the next 5 years, however.
                  1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                  1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                  1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                  The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                  The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                    Of course it penalizes those who miss twenty games. How do you think they largely quantify the "R" part in WAR?
                    If Don Mattingly's replacement at first base makes an error when DM is out of the game due to an injury, does DM's fielding wins go down?

                    What if the replacement player is in negative territory? Do we take WAR away from DM?

                    If the backup first baseman (our replacement player) for the St. Louis Cardinals goes 4-4 and drives in the game winning run the night Keith Hernandez is on the bench during a routine day off does that boost the value of KH if our replacement player does not also throw out two runners at third base? Surely we can say that KH might have done that too if had he been in there. And if the replacement player did not make those throws and chalk up those assists in between at-bats is he no longer the star of the game? Heck, his replacement (in this case KH) would have found a way to throw those guys out. No way he just runs G-3s to the bag over and over again.


                    Look, WAR suits a certain type of player very well. Problem is, baseball is played by a lot of different guys with different skill sets. WAR believes average base running and average fielding is a bad thing. Almost everyone is just that, average. Most of the value every baseball player is his ability to be average in all facets of the game. WAR does not like that and that is why a narrow band of player scores very very well and nearly everyone else is lumped into the middle.

                    And according to WAR where you play in the field means more than how well you play in the field. It can tell how good you are by looking at the front of your baseball card rather than the back. Right…….
                    Your Second Base Coach
                    Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.
                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5hCIvMule0

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                      Why are we talking about WAR again? the 60-80% of the BBWAA who voted him down every year never heard of it and I would say a vast majority of our 90% "NOs" in this poll don't use it or don't use it often.

                      Turning this into a sabermetrics vs. Garvey issue is really missing the boat.
                      Well said. It's a straw man argument.

                      Garvey missing the Hall Of Fame had literally nothing to do with sabermetrics.
                      My top 10 players:

                      1. Babe Ruth
                      2. Barry Bonds
                      3. Ty Cobb
                      4. Ted Williams
                      5. Willie Mays
                      6. Alex Rodriguez
                      7. Hank Aaron
                      8. Honus Wagner
                      9. Lou Gehrig
                      10. Mickey Mantle

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
                        If Don Mattingly's replacement at first base makes an error when DM is out of the game due to an injury, does DM's fielding wins go down?

                        What if the replacement player is in negative territory? Do we take WAR away from DM?

                        If the backup first baseman (our replacement player) for the St. Louis Cardinals goes 4-4 and drives in the game winning run the night Keith Hernandez is on the bench during a routine day off does that boost the value of KH if our replacement player does not also throw out two runners at third base? Surely we can say that KH might have done that too if had he been in there. And if the replacement player did not make those throws and chalk up those assists in between at-bats is he no longer the star of the game? Heck, his replacement (in this case KH) would have found a way to throw those guys out. No way he just runs G-3s to the bag over and over again.


                        Look, WAR suits a certain type of player very well. Problem is, baseball is played by a lot of different guys with different skill sets. WAR believes average base running and average fielding is a bad thing. Almost everyone is just that, average. Most of the value every baseball player is his ability to be average in all facets of the game. WAR does not like that and that is why a narrow band of player scores very very well and nearly everyone else is lumped into the middle.

                        And according to WAR where you play in the field means more than how well you play in the field. It can tell how good you are by looking at the front of your baseball card rather than the back. Right…….
                        You don't have any idea what you're talking about.
                        "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by GiambiJuice View Post
                          He entered the Hall Of Fame ballot in 1993, though. Not in 1987.
                          He stopped adding to his resume in 1987. That's my take on it. The game changed on him at just the wrong time. Relief pitchers with a lot of three inning wins and two inning saves were hurt too.
                          Your Second Base Coach
                          Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.
                          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5hCIvMule0

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post
                            I don't know as much about it as Matt does. But the things you said were blatant falsities about things that are learned in the early stages if one reads up on WAR.
                            It is true that there are multiple versions. Two, really that are mainstream and often cited. The only real diffrence between the two of them is which defensive system they use. But the results produce a correlation of .8 or higher, so it is silly to worry about there being different versions.

                            They have tinkered with things from time to time. And when we are closer to quantifying catcher pitch-framing more accurately, they will change it again. I consider it a good thing when changes are made upon the arrival of new and helpful information. I don't think that is a sign of weakness. I guess some would prefer everything to stay the same forever even when new info. is discovered.
                            Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 02-25-2014, 02:49 PM.
                            1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                            1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                            1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                            The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                            The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                              Why are we talking about WAR again? the 60-80% of the BBWAA who voted him down every year never heard of it and I would say a vast majority of our 90% "NOs" in this poll don't use it or don't use it often.

                              Turning this into a sabermetrics vs. Garvey issue is really missing the boat.
                              Agreed. I never bring WAR into it because Garvey's job was NOT to take a walk or throw to third base. Plus WAR thinks he's a bum anyway because he played first base. His inability to play center field is somehow deducted from his value to his team when he made all those base hits and drove in all those runs by way of all those total bases.

                              If he was a real stud, he would be the shortstop. I am not sure who he would be throwing to if he had to play short. Maybe Ed Goodsen?

                              And if Ed Goodsen had a negative WAR, who do we deduct that from?
                              Your Second Base Coach
                              Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.
                              http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5hCIvMule0

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
                                It is ture that there are multiple versions. Two, rerally that are mainstream and often cited. The only real diffrence between the two of them is which defensive system they use. But the results produce a correlation of .8 or higher, so it is silly to worry about there being different versions.

                                They have tinkered with things from time to time.

                                Garvey's WAR went UP, didn't it?
                                Your Second Base Coach
                                Garvey, Lopes, Russell, and Cey started 833 times and the Dodgers went 498-335, for a .598 winning percentage. That’s equal to a team going 97-65 over a season. On those occasions when at least one of them missed his start, the Dodgers were 306-267-1, which is a .534 clip. That works out to a team going 87-75. So having all four of them added 10 wins to the Dodgers per year.
                                http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5hCIvMule0

                                Comment

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