Adrian Beltre with newest poll

[Sockeye]

I realize this may be a bit premature but I was discussing Adrian Beltre with a few friends of mine. He's just turned 27 and is entering his 9th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 3085
At-Bats 11,178
Runs 1443
Hits 3033
Doubles 582
Triples 52
Home Runs 456
RBI's 1641
Stolen Bases 178
Walks 890
AVG .271
OBP .327
SLG .455

[leecemark]

--Have you ever seen Beltre play? As a Mariner's fan I've got to see alot of him recently and I want a refund. One fluke year hasn't set him on the road to Cooperstown.

[Sockeye]

--Have you ever seen Beltre play? As a Mariner's fan I've got to see alot of him recently and I want a refund. One fluke year hasn't set him on the road to Cooperstown.

I wouldn't be so hard on Beltre just yet. Sometimes it takes a year to get adjusted to a new year. Learning the pitchers and what not. I too agree that his 2004 season was a fluke and he'll never come close to those numbers again. But I do see him as a 20-25 home run a year man that will drive in 80-90 runs a year. Maybe reaching 30+ homers/100+ RBIs a couple seasons. Over a long career providing he plays until the age of 40 and stays relatively healthy. The fact that he began playing at age 19, has been a starter since age 20, and has no history of injuries. He has a very good chance of putting up 3000+ hits, 400+ home runs, 1600+ RBIs, and 1400+ runs.

[1905 Giants]

Not going to the hall

I'm a Mariners fan and I agree that he isn't going to get another monster season like that.

I also say that he is not going to make the hall of fame

On Base percentage is below league average
OPs+ is only 106

Average Fielder

Also, according to Baseball-Reference.com the player he most resembles through this time by age has been Ron Santo, and if Santo can't make it (which he should) then Beltre isn't either.

Plus, Santo was a better fielder

[ElHalo]

I think Beltre has about as much chance of making the Hall as Rico Brogna.

[Sockeye]

I'm a Mariners fan and I agree that he isn't going to get another monster season like that.

I also say that he is not going to make the hall of fame

On Base percentage is below league average
OPs+ is only 106

Average Fielder

Also, according to Baseball-Reference.com the player he most resembles through this time by age has been Ron Santo, and if Santo can't make it (which he should) then Beltre isn't either.

Plus, Santo was a better fielder

The player he most resembles is through the age of 26 is Ron Santo. But his last season was at age 34. If Adrian Beltre only plays until age 34 then I agree that he won't make the HOF nor should he. However if he plays late until around age 40 then his career numbers will be deserving of HOF induction. If Santo would have had 2-3 more good seasons then I think we'd see him in the HOF as we will Beltre

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I actually thought his 2004 season was a beginning of a great run for Beltre and he would be a .320 hitting Mike Schmidt type. Silly me. :o

[Sockeye]

I think Beltre has about as much chance of making the Hall as Rico Brogna.

Interesting considering his numbers already dwarf Brogna's and he just turned 27

[538280]

Also, according to Baseball-Reference.com the player he most resembles through this time by age has been Ron Santo, and if Santo can't make it (which he should) then Beltre isn't either.

Plus, Santo was a better fielder

I'm so sick of similarity scores. BBRef isn't saying that Beltre most "resembles" Santo. It's simply saying their raw numbers are similar, which, considering Santo played in the 1960s and Beltre in the 2000s means just about nothing. To get an idea of the difference between them, we can adjust their stats for era. Let's use OPS+ (OPS compared to league). Look at Ron Santo and Adrian Beltre's OPS by age:

OPS+ by Age, Ron Santo/Adrian Beltre
Age.....Santo.....Beltre
20........97..........74
21.......121..........100
22........74...........116
23.......129..........93
24.......164..........98
25.......146..........89
26.......161..........163
27.......153..........90

There you go, Beltre was a match for Santo during his fluke year, and other than that couldn't hold his jockstrap. Similarity scores mean close to nothing.

[DoubleX]

I'm so sick of similarity scores. BBRef isn't saying that Beltre most "resembles" Santo. It's simply saying their raw numbers are similar, which, considering Santo played in the 1960s and Beltre in the 2000s means just about nothing. To get an idea of the difference between them, we can adjust their stats for era. Let's use OPS+ (OPS compared to league). Look at Ron Santo and Adrian Beltre's OPS by age:

OPS+ by Age, Ron Santo/Adrian Beltre
Age.....Santo.....Beltre
20........97..........74
21.......121..........100
22........74...........116
23.......129..........93
24.......164..........98
25.......146..........89
26.......161..........163
27.......153..........90

There you go, Beltre was a match for Santo during his fluke year, and other than that couldn't hold his jockstrap. Similarity scores mean close to nothing.

You beat me to it. Santo, IMO is the 5th best 3Bman of all-time and a very solid Hall of Famer (even if he isn't technically in). Beltre is a perennial disappointment who probably doesn't even rank among the 10 best 3Bman in the league right now, and I don't know if he did at any other point in his career other than 2004.

[Sockeye]

I actually thought his 2004 season was a beginning of a great run for Beltre and he would be a .320 hitting Mike Schmidt type. Silly me. :o

Can't say I was fooled by it. If it hadn't come in a free agent year then I might have believed it. Never-the-less it does show us one thing and that is that Beltre when he wants to has the ability to put up amazing numbers. So maybe as he gets older (still just turned 27 yesterday) he'll dedicate himself and we'll see his production increase and big numbers from Beltre on a consistant basis.

[1905 Giants]

Oops

Thank you, DoubleX and 538280 for your insight into similarity scores, will keep in mind

[RedSoxVT92]

Beltre doesnt stand a chance. He just had that fluke year of 48 homers and one year does not spell hof. His other years he had around 15-20 homers with not a great average. If Maris isnt in for that 61 homer fluke year than neither should he.

[jalbright]

If you're going to use similarity scores,

1) you should start with the entire list of ten, not just #1;

2) it's most useful for getting a handle on things for projections such as this;

3) That said, you've got to realize that when you compare a guy from a high offensive era like this to guys from lower offensive eras that you should downgrade the current guy a little.

The list for Beltre through age 26:

Ron Santo (946)
Ruben Sierra (907)
Eric Chavez (907)
Andruw Jones (889)
Rusty Staub (880)
Ken Keltner (872)
Johnny Callison (868)
Harlond Clift (868)
Cal Ripken (867)
Bobby Doerr (866) *

Santo should be in, Ripken will be, and Doerr is. Andruw Jones may well make it, and Chavez is active, but the rest aren't even strong candidates IMO. Keeping the points above in mind, Beltre has to step it up to really be considered a solid candidate.

Jim Albright

[Sockeye]

I'm so sick of similarity scores. BBRef isn't saying that Beltre most "resembles" Santo. It's simply saying their raw numbers are similar, which, considering Santo played in the 1960s and Beltre in the 2000s means just about nothing. To get an idea of the difference between them, we can adjust their stats for era. Let's use OPS+ (OPS compared to league). Look at Ron Santo and Adrian Beltre's OPS by age:

OPS+ by Age, Ron Santo/Adrian Beltre
Age.....Santo.....Beltre
20........97..........74
21.......121..........100
22........74...........116
23.......129..........93
24.......164..........98
25.......146..........89
26.......161..........163
27.......153..........90

There you go, Beltre was a match for Santo during his fluke year, and other than that couldn't hold his jockstrap. Similarity scores mean close to nothing.

OPS+ is a flawed stat. Look at Ron Santo's sheer numbers in his best season of 1964. .312 AVG, 94 runs, 185 hits, 30 homers, 114 RBI's, .398 OBP, .564 SLG compared to Beltre's best season in 2004. .334 AVG, 104 runs, 200 hits, 48 home runs, 121 RBI's, .388 OBP, .629 SLG. But yet Santo's OPS+ was 164 and Beltre's was 163. Now you tell me which set of numbers would you rather have?

The logic is simple here. Offensive numbers are so high these days (partially due to steroid use) that you aren't going to see OPS+ numbers nearly as high as they were in the past especially compared to pitcher friendly eras such as the 60's.