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  • Adrian Beltre with newest poll

    I realize this may be a bit premature but I was discussing Adrian Beltre with a few friends of mine. He's just turned 27 and is entering his 9th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

    I think he could very well end up with

    Games 3085
    At-Bats 11,178
    Runs 1443
    Hits 3033
    Doubles 582
    Triples 52
    Home Runs 456
    RBI's 1641
    Stolen Bases 178
    Walks 890
    AVG .271
    OBP .327
    SLG .455
    50
    Beltre is an easy HOFer
    72.00%
    36
    Beltre is a borderline-in HOFer
    26.00%
    13
    Beltre is a borderline-out player
    2.00%
    1
    Beltre is clearly not a HOFer
    2.00%
    1
    My dream ballpark dimensions
    LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
    RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
    Location....San Diego

  • #2
    --Have you ever seen Beltre play? As a Mariner's fan I've got to see alot of him recently and I want a refund. One fluke year hasn't set him on the road to Cooperstown.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by leecemark
      --Have you ever seen Beltre play? As a Mariner's fan I've got to see alot of him recently and I want a refund. One fluke year hasn't set him on the road to Cooperstown.
      I wouldn't be so hard on Beltre just yet. Sometimes it takes a year to get adjusted to a new year. Learning the pitchers and what not. I too agree that his 2004 season was a fluke and he'll never come close to those numbers again. But I do see him as a 20-25 home run a year man that will drive in 80-90 runs a year. Maybe reaching 30+ homers/100+ RBIs a couple seasons. Over a long career providing he plays until the age of 40 and stays relatively healthy. The fact that he began playing at age 19, has been a starter since age 20, and has no history of injuries. He has a very good chance of putting up 3000+ hits, 400+ home runs, 1600+ RBIs, and 1400+ runs.
      My dream ballpark dimensions
      LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
      RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
      Location....San Diego

      Comment


      • #4
        Not going to the hall

        I'm a Mariners fan and I agree that he isn't going to get another monster season like that.

        I also say that he is not going to make the hall of fame

        On Base percentage is below league average
        OPs+ is only 106

        Average Fielder

        Also, according to Baseball-Reference.com the player he most resembles through this time by age has been Ron Santo, and if Santo can't make it (which he should) then Beltre isn't either.

        Plus, Santo was a better fielder
        “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

        "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

        Comment


        • #5
          I think Beltre has about as much chance of making the Hall as Rico Brogna.
          "Simply put, the passion, interest and tradition surrounding baseball in New York is unmatched."

          Sean McAdam, ESPN.com

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by 1905 Giants
            I'm a Mariners fan and I agree that he isn't going to get another monster season like that.

            I also say that he is not going to make the hall of fame

            On Base percentage is below league average
            OPs+ is only 106

            Average Fielder

            Also, according to Baseball-Reference.com the player he most resembles through this time by age has been Ron Santo, and if Santo can't make it (which he should) then Beltre isn't either.

            Plus, Santo was a better fielder
            The player he most resembles is through the age of 26 is Ron Santo. But his last season was at age 34. If Adrian Beltre only plays until age 34 then I agree that he won't make the HOF nor should he. However if he plays late until around age 40 then his career numbers will be deserving of HOF induction. If Santo would have had 2-3 more good seasons then I think we'd see him in the HOF as we will Beltre
            My dream ballpark dimensions
            LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
            RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
            Location....San Diego

            Comment


            • #7
              I actually thought his 2004 season was a beginning of a great run for Beltre and he would be a .320 hitting Mike Schmidt type. Silly me. :o
              Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by ElHalo
                I think Beltre has about as much chance of making the Hall as Rico Brogna.
                Interesting considering his numbers already dwarf Brogna's and he just turned 27
                My dream ballpark dimensions
                LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
                RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
                Location....San Diego

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by 1905 Giants
                  Also, according to Baseball-Reference.com the player he most resembles through this time by age has been Ron Santo, and if Santo can't make it (which he should) then Beltre isn't either.

                  Plus, Santo was a better fielder
                  I'm so sick of similarity scores. BBRef isn't saying that Beltre most "resembles" Santo. It's simply saying their raw numbers are similar, which, considering Santo played in the 1960s and Beltre in the 2000s means just about nothing. To get an idea of the difference between them, we can adjust their stats for era. Let's use OPS+ (OPS compared to league). Look at Ron Santo and Adrian Beltre's OPS by age:

                  OPS+ by Age, Ron Santo/Adrian Beltre
                  Age.....Santo.....Beltre
                  20........97..........74
                  21.......121..........100
                  22........74...........116
                  23.......129..........93
                  24.......164..........98
                  25.......146..........89
                  26.......161..........163
                  27.......153..........90

                  There you go, Beltre was a match for Santo during his fluke year, and other than that couldn't hold his jockstrap. Similarity scores mean close to nothing.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by 538280
                    I'm so sick of similarity scores. BBRef isn't saying that Beltre most "resembles" Santo. It's simply saying their raw numbers are similar, which, considering Santo played in the 1960s and Beltre in the 2000s means just about nothing. To get an idea of the difference between them, we can adjust their stats for era. Let's use OPS+ (OPS compared to league). Look at Ron Santo and Adrian Beltre's OPS by age:

                    OPS+ by Age, Ron Santo/Adrian Beltre
                    Age.....Santo.....Beltre
                    20........97..........74
                    21.......121..........100
                    22........74...........116
                    23.......129..........93
                    24.......164..........98
                    25.......146..........89
                    26.......161..........163
                    27.......153..........90

                    There you go, Beltre was a match for Santo during his fluke year, and other than that couldn't hold his jockstrap. Similarity scores mean close to nothing.
                    You beat me to it. Santo, IMO is the 5th best 3Bman of all-time and a very solid Hall of Famer (even if he isn't technically in). Beltre is a perennial disappointment who probably doesn't even rank among the 10 best 3Bman in the league right now, and I don't know if he did at any other point in his career other than 2004.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Honus Wagner Rules
                      I actually thought his 2004 season was a beginning of a great run for Beltre and he would be a .320 hitting Mike Schmidt type. Silly me. :o
                      Can't say I was fooled by it. If it hadn't come in a free agent year then I might have believed it. Never-the-less it does show us one thing and that is that Beltre when he wants to has the ability to put up amazing numbers. So maybe as he gets older (still just turned 27 yesterday) he'll dedicate himself and we'll see his production increase and big numbers from Beltre on a consistant basis.
                      My dream ballpark dimensions
                      LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
                      RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
                      Location....San Diego

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Oops

                        Thank you, DoubleX and 538280 for your insight into similarity scores, will keep in mind
                        “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

                        "Fill in any figure you want for that boy (Mantle). Whatever the figure, it's a deal." - Branch Rickey

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Beltre doesnt stand a chance. He just had that fluke year of 48 homers and one year does not spell hof. His other years he had around 15-20 homers with not a great average. If Maris isnt in for that 61 homer fluke year than neither should he.
                          go sox.

                          Pigskin-Fever

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            If you're going to use similarity scores,

                            1) you should start with the entire list of ten, not just #1;

                            2) it's most useful for getting a handle on things for projections such as this;

                            3) That said, you've got to realize that when you compare a guy from a high offensive era like this to guys from lower offensive eras that you should downgrade the current guy a little.

                            The list for Beltre through age 26:

                            Ron Santo (946)
                            Ruben Sierra (907)
                            Eric Chavez (907)
                            Andruw Jones (889)
                            Rusty Staub (880)
                            Ken Keltner (872)
                            Johnny Callison (868)
                            Harlond Clift (868)
                            Cal Ripken (867)
                            Bobby Doerr (866) *

                            Santo should be in, Ripken will be, and Doerr is. Andruw Jones may well make it, and Chavez is active, but the rest aren't even strong candidates IMO. Keeping the points above in mind, Beltre has to step it up to really be considered a solid candidate.

                            Jim Albright
                            Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                            Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                            A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by 538280
                              I'm so sick of similarity scores. BBRef isn't saying that Beltre most "resembles" Santo. It's simply saying their raw numbers are similar, which, considering Santo played in the 1960s and Beltre in the 2000s means just about nothing. To get an idea of the difference between them, we can adjust their stats for era. Let's use OPS+ (OPS compared to league). Look at Ron Santo and Adrian Beltre's OPS by age:

                              OPS+ by Age, Ron Santo/Adrian Beltre
                              Age.....Santo.....Beltre
                              20........97..........74
                              21.......121..........100
                              22........74...........116
                              23.......129..........93
                              24.......164..........98
                              25.......146..........89
                              26.......161..........163
                              27.......153..........90

                              There you go, Beltre was a match for Santo during his fluke year, and other than that couldn't hold his jockstrap. Similarity scores mean close to nothing.
                              OPS+ is a flawed stat. Look at Ron Santo's sheer numbers in his best season of 1964. .312 AVG, 94 runs, 185 hits, 30 homers, 114 RBI's, .398 OBP, .564 SLG compared to Beltre's best season in 2004. .334 AVG, 104 runs, 200 hits, 48 home runs, 121 RBI's, .388 OBP, .629 SLG. But yet Santo's OPS+ was 164 and Beltre's was 163. Now you tell me which set of numbers would you rather have?

                              The logic is simple here. Offensive numbers are so high these days (partially due to steroid use) that you aren't going to see OPS+ numbers nearly as high as they were in the past especially compared to pitcher friendly eras such as the 60's.
                              My dream ballpark dimensions
                              LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
                              RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
                              Location....San Diego

                              Comment

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