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  • Originally posted by Cougar View Post
    This is an excellent point. If Nomar had managed to play 120 games a season, even at replacement level, for several years in his thirties, he'd probably have a much stronger case. But Nomar flat out couldn't stay healthy.
    Wright has 6 more years on his contract. If Nomar had played 6 more years (lowball of like 3K PA) at a 102 OPS+, and stayed at SS (with even average D), he probably would've ended up with some decent totals and good overall WAR. Instead he did 1900 PA, and played like 40% of the time at 1B and some 3B as well.

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    • Shut down for a bad shoulder, Wright is officially done for 2014. His line, as it will forever remain on the back of his baseball card, is:

      .269 / .324 / .374 / .698 / 8 HR / 63 RBI / 8 SB / 5 CS / 134 G

      At the season's start, his batting average was .301; it is now .298. His slugging percentage was also .506; it is now .494.

      Thus, Wright has lost both his .300 career batting average and .500 career slugging percentage. At the end of the 2008 season, he was at .309 and .533.

      Forget Hall of Fame; his whole career is collapsing.

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      • A lot of people will write Wright right off of their "future Hall of Famer" lists after his mediocre 2014 and from the reactionary point of view, that makes sense - he slashed .269/.324/.374 with only eight home runs and 63 RBI in 134 games - but even though he isn't the player he was at the beginning of his career, in terms of batting average at least, he's still quite the force to be reckoned with. Since 2010, he's slashed .285/.361/.463 with a 130 OPS+ ... and that's including 2014. Between 2012 and 2013, his OPS+ was 149 and he slashed .307/.391/.591. Only 32, he's at nearly 50 WAR for his career.

        And he's only 32. He could and likely will rebound. He's still on pace for 300+ home runs, 2,500+ hits, 1,300+ RBI, 1,250+ runs, 250+ steals 1,000+ walks. A third baseman with those numbers and all the accolades that Wright has accumulated will be hard to deny Hall of Fame entry.

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        • I don't disagree but Scott Rolen must have all that but with less steals and more GGs and I find it hard to believe he will make the HOF.

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          • True, but Rolen also spent the last eight years of his career only hurting his Hall of Fame case. He averaged only 105 game and 376 at-bats in that stretch. It's the same sort of thing that's going to hurt Griffey in Hall of Fame balloting ... voters may excuse a year or two of crappy play at the end of a career, but when unimpressive play marks nearly half a career (unimpressive in comparison to previous performance), then they will judge the individual much more harshly.

            Wright has yet to have such a sudden fall as Rolen had.

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            • Originally posted by Cowtipper View Post
              True, but Rolen also spent the last eight years of his career only hurting his Hall of Fame case. He averaged only 105 game and 376 at-bats in that stretch. It's the same sort of thing that's going to hurt Griffey in Hall of Fame balloting ... voters may excuse a year or two of crappy play at the end of a career, but when unimpressive play marks nearly half a career (unimpressive in comparison to previous performance), then they will judge the individual much more harshly.

              Wright has yet to have such a sudden fall as Rolen had.
              As a fellow Met fan let's hope he rebounds to the 05-08 levels or thereabouts. Obviously a string of 2014s and he will be the next Rolen.

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              • Originally posted by Cowtipper View Post
                A lot of people will write Wright right off of their "future Hall of Famer" lists after his mediocre 2014...
                I just wanted to highlight this. It made me laugh out loud for some reason.
                "Hitting is better than sex." - Reggie Jackson, Esquire (March 1, 1978)

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                • I'm going to make a wild guess at .295/.375/.475 with 23 HR next year.
                  “There can be no higher law in journalism than to tell the truth and to shame the devil.” Walter Lippmann

                  "I don't care if the guy is yellow or black, or if he has stripes like a ******* zebra. I'm the manager of this team and I say he [Robinson] plays." - Leo Durocher

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                  • Originally posted by 1905 Giants View Post
                    I'm going to make a wild guess at .295/.375/.475 with 23 HR next year.
                    Clay Davenport projects David Wright to have 11 home runs, 66 RBI, .278/.356/.405 at 3.9 WARP in 2015. The comps are Phil Nevin, Ken Boyer, Donn Clendenon, Joe Torre.

                    http://claydavenport.com/projections/PROJHOME.shtml
                    The Mets have the best, smartest fans in baseball.

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                    • If 2015 is mediocre or poor, I say his Hall of Fame chances are finished.

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                      • Originally posted by redban View Post
                        If 2015 is mediocre or poor, I say his Hall of Fame chances are finished.
                        Wright has missed most of the year so far with a hamstring injury, and now his back is hurting, delaying his recovery.

                        Wright is similar to Rolen in career progression, but Rolen was a much better glove; he has stupendous seasons, but missed lots of time to injury. Wright hasn't been as injury-prone as Rolen, but he's a guy whose career is now considered a mild disappointment. He's really not viewed as a "franchise player" anymore, and the question is now one of whether or not he was a star of that magnitude.

                        Wright's not ruled out of the HOF; he's a third baseman, and there's a shortage, so he's viable. But folks are going to look over his "application" with a fine tooth comb. His defensive value will be scrutinized. He will be compared to Ken Boyer and Scott Rolen, and there will be a question of why he should rate over them.
                        "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

                        NL President Ford Frick, 1947

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                        • He will not get into the NBHOFM in all likelihood, but he is an all time Met and in the Mets HOF for sure!

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                          • Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                            He will not get into the NBHOFM in all likelihood, but he is an all time Met and in the Mets HOF for sure!
                            Most WAR for Mets 3B:
                            Code:
                            Rk            Player WAR/pos WAA/pos OPS+   PA From   To   Age
                            1       David Wright    49.9    30.3  134 6566 2004 2015 21-32
                            2    Edgardo Alfonzo    29.5    16.2  113 4449 1995 2002 21-28
                            3     Howard Johnson    21.9     6.9  124 4591 1985 1993 24-32
                            4      Wayne Garrett    13.9     3.0   95 3361 1969 1976 21-28
                            5      Robin Ventura    11.0     5.7  113 1771 1999 2001 31-33
                            Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.

                            Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.

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                            • Wright needs to get healthy and stay healthy to have a chance.
                              They call me Mr. Baseball. Not because of my love for the game; because of all the stitches in my head.

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                              • Originally posted by brett View Post
                                This is an interesting hall of fame case for me because I tend to call "hall of famers" at a high percentage once I call them, and I called Wright as a hall of famer probably before the end of the '08 season. I remember Bill James mentioning that 24-29 were peak years and Wright had all the tools. He also had shown 4 straight consistent HOF level years with good health. He got a young start. He was a .300/.500 man. He may have fallen behind the curve. The only two guys I can remember calling in who didn't make it were Santana and Garciaparra.
                                Brett, this is very interesting - do you have a list out there on this site somewhere with your predictions?
                                On one hand, the White Sox had to forfeit a game. On the other hand, disco was finally killed off. So overall, it was a win.

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