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  • Originally posted by willshad View Post

    Again, I think there's more to it than just adding everything up and seeing how he fares. This is a guy who showed HOF potential at a young age and failed to live up to in during his prime years. Same applies to Wright.
    When I think 'HOFer', I think of a guy who at least somewhat lived up to his potential, not a guy who peaked at 25 or 26 and was a washout after that.
    Personally, I think you're mixing up some issues. Please note before I start this that at the moment, I haven't dug into Wright's case in detail because until very recently, there was some hope he's still might play. I suspect after the season, I will do that digging. As it is, I lean against him. However, his problems with potential were injury based. I'm not saying he deserves extra credit for that reason, but I don't think he should be disqualified for failing to reach his potential due to such issues, either. Is Mike Trout a HOFer in your mind, assuming he puts in a few games in enough seasons to hit 10? Yet, if he did that, it would be reasonable to say he didn't meet his potential, whatever the issue might be that caused it. Now, Trout is a more extreme case since he's truly the greatest player in the game right now. But Wright at least had an argument as the best 3B in the game before his injuries struck him down. I tend to think he needed more filler than he got from that point, but I don't think he needed to live up to his potential from that age to deserve a spot in the Hall, either. If he had added as much as an average player playing full time through 2017, I think he'd clearly be over the line, but such a performance would have been below his "potential". I think all Trout needs to do to punch his ticket is get those games to carry him to 10 seasons and keep his nose clean.

    Wright didn't quite wash out after age 25. He wasn't special ages 26 to 28, but had two deserved All-Star seasons at 29 and 30. Hw fell back to that meh level at age 31, and wasn't able to play more than 38 games in either of the next two seasons, and apparently none this year.

    The lack of longevity will weigh heavily against him if indeed he is done. If he didn't do enough through age 25 plus 29 and 30 to get over the bar, he's at least close
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by jalbright View Post

      Personally, I think you're mixing up some issues. Please note before I start this that at the moment, I haven't dug into Wright's case in detail because until very recently, there was some hope he's still might play. I suspect after the season, I will do that digging. As it is, I lean against him. However, his problems with potential were injury based. I'm not saying he deserves extra credit for that reason, but I don't think he should be disqualified for failing to reach his potential due to such issues, either. Is Mike Trout a HOFer in your mind, assuming he puts in a few games in enough seasons to hit 10? Yet, if he did that, it would be reasonable to say he didn't meet his potential, whatever the issue might be that caused it. Now, Trout is a more extreme case since he's truly the greatest player in the game right now. But Wright at least had an argument as the best 3B in the game before his injuries struck him down. I tend to think he needed more filler than he got from that point, but I don't think he needed to live up to his potential from that age to deserve a spot in the Hall, either. If he had added as much as an average player playing full time through 2017, I think he'd clearly be over the line, but such a performance would have been below his "potential". I think all Trout needs to do to punch his ticket is get those games to carry him to 10 seasons and keep his nose clean.

      Wright didn't quite wash out after age 25. He wasn't special ages 26 to 28, but had two deserved All-Star seasons at 29 and 30. Hw fell back to that meh level at age 31, and wasn't able to play more than 38 games in either of the next two seasons, and apparently none this year.

      The lack of longevity will weigh heavily against him if indeed he is done. If he didn't do enough through age 25 plus 29 and 30 to get over the bar, he's at least close
      Well, to me there's a difference between playing at a superstar level for five or six years, then declining, and a guy who was merely really good, with maybe one 'superstar' year, then declining. In Wright's case, he was really good, but the type of good that needed some longevity. he wasn't Mike Trout level good, besides maybe in 2007. If he had seven years at his 2007 level then it's a whole different ballgame. And with seven years at 160-170 OPS+, like Trout has done, then that is another story still.

      For me, the difference between Trout and guys like Wright and Longoria, is that the latter two showed HOF POTENTIAL at a young age, while Trout was already at the HOF level, and maintained it for a while. Still, if Trout showed up next year and was suddenly a league average player for the next ten seasons, I don't think I'd vote him for the HOF.
      Last edited by willshad; 09-06-2017, 02:58 PM.

      Comment


      • His career is officially done.

        No Hall of Fame possible, I think.

        Comment


        • His little "hat tip" from the organization this week actually helps his Hall of Fame case. His previous final season was 2016 and that the new one is 2018. "It's just a two-year difference" you say? That's right, my friend. Let me tell you what a difference two years can make.

          For starters, we are seeing with each passing year a changing of the guard among the electorate which represents approximately 2 percent of that body per year. As the old guard stops actively covering the game, that's fewer curmudgeons with self-righteous tiny ballots who base their votes on their gut-level feelings rather than taking a more rational approach to the question of who belongs. The more new voters we add, the greater comfort level the electorate has with statistics that are more sophisticated than mere wins, saves and career totals. Having fewer 1990 AL Cy Young voters (Bob Welch) and more 2010 AL Cy Young voters (Felix Hernandez) will yield better results. This not only helps elect obviously deserving players more quickly - fewer unnecessary waits for no-brainers liked Gary Carter, Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar or Barry Larkin - but it also gives more debatable candidates a better chance to avoid the one-and-done and have a case made for them over time. Having more Bert Blyleven/Tim Raines-like climbs over the hill, and fewer Lou Whitaker/Ted Simmons-esque beheadings is good for the process and good for the Hall.

          Two more years could improve the electorate's disposition towards a guy like Wright by enough to keep him on the ballot 10 years, having his case reviewed annually, rather than summarily dismissed as we saw happen to Johan Santana last winter.

          Secondly, with the 2016 final season, Wright was going to debut on the 2022 ballot, which will be super-crowded. Not only will it be the first ballot for Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz, but it will be the final ballot for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa (if none are elected before then). Wright would almost certainly have been overlooked and overwhelmed by the backlog that year. Now, he won't debut until the 2024 ballot. Granted he will be debuting with Ichiro and, perhaps, Adrian Beltre, but Scott Rolen should have made some significant gains by then, rather than flirting with 5 percent. Not only that, but there are not strong incoming classes in 2020 (other than Derek Jeter), 2021 or 2023. Furthermore, Mike Mussina and Jeff Kent will be off the ballot by then, in addition to the 2007 retirees named above. Bottom line, by debuting two years later, Wright's chances to stay on the ballot are vastly improved due to smaller bottleneck (and fewer slam-dunk players as part of that bottleneck).

          Finally, there is the narrative. Wright's little homecoming this week generated a lot of chatter about his Hall of Fame credentials and what he meant to the Mets. The argument that Toledo made in the Joe Mauer thread (re: a franchise icon) is even more true of the Mets' Captain America. FWIW, I realize this is anecdotal, but the consensus among pundits and announcers that I heard this week was that Wright has a favorable case for Cooperstown. They universally acknowledged him as a "Hall of Fame talent". Not that his performance this week changed anything about his production, but had Wright quietly slipped away into the night, without a formal retirement as so many players often do, he would not have attracted this kind of attention or reflection from the chattering class around the game and the attention, I believe, will yield a positive affect on his chances when he does hit the ballot.

          To summarize, Wright set his Hall eligibility back two additional years - unintentionally, I'm sure - but it will end up helping his chances, hopefully by a significant measure..
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
            Not only will it be the first ballot for Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz, but it will be the final ballot for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa
            A small, rotten part of me would almost like to see them all elected at once, just to clear the deck and make sure that all the rotten apples are in the same basket. It would be easy to avoid.

            Plus, the Clemens-Schilling fistfight on the stage would be epic.

            3 6 10 21 29 31 35 41 42 44 47

            "All of which makes perfect sense on paper, unless you have actually at any time in your life watched baseball being played." - The Commissioner

            Comment


            • A John Sickels retrospective of David Wright.

              https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018...of-david-wrigh
              Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Los Bravos View Post
                Clemens-Schilling fistfight
                Nahhh. Schilling only gets up in arms if you get political with him (or maybe if you rag on him for the 38 Studios disaster), and I doubt that being born and raised in Texas would make Roger less agreeable to his views. I'd like to see Clemens beat up pussy-boy A-Rod though. If Jason Varitek can do it, why couldn't a heavier-built man with a far more sensitive trigger finger do it, y'know?

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
                  His little "hat tip" from the organization this week actually helps his Hall of Fame case. His previous final season was 2016 and that the new one is 2018. "It's just a two-year difference" you say? That's right, my friend. Let me tell you what a difference two years can make.

                  For starters, we are seeing with each passing year a changing of the guard among the electorate which represents approximately 2 percent of that body per year. As the old guard stops actively covering the game, that's fewer curmudgeons with self-righteous tiny ballots who base their votes on their gut-level feelings rather than taking a more rational approach to the question of who belongs. The more new voters we add, the greater comfort level the electorate has with statistics that are more sophisticated than mere wins, saves and career totals. Having fewer 1990 AL Cy Young voters (Bob Welch) and more 2010 AL Cy Young voters (Felix Hernandez) will yield better results. This not only helps elect obviously deserving players more quickly - fewer unnecessary waits for no-brainers liked Gary Carter, Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar or Barry Larkin - but it also gives more debatable candidates a better chance to avoid the one-and-done and have a case made for them over time. Having more Bert Blyleven/Tim Raines-like climbs over the hill, and fewer Lou Whitaker/Ted Simmons-esque beheadings is good for the process and good for the Hall.

                  Two more years could improve the electorate's disposition towards a guy like Wright by enough to keep him on the ballot 10 years, having his case reviewed annually, rather than summarily dismissed as we saw happen to Johan Santana last winter.

                  Secondly, with the 2016 final season, Wright was going to debut on the 2022 ballot, which will be super-crowded. Not only will it be the first ballot for Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz, but it will be the final ballot for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa (if none are elected before then). Wright would almost certainly have been overlooked and overwhelmed by the backlog that year. Now, he won't debut until the 2024 ballot. Granted he will be debuting with Ichiro and, perhaps, Adrian Beltre, but Scott Rolen should have made some significant gains by then, rather than flirting with 5 percent. Not only that, but there are not strong incoming classes in 2020 (other than Derek Jeter), 2021 or 2023. Furthermore, Mike Mussina and Jeff Kent will be off the ballot by then, in addition to the 2007 retirees named above. Bottom line, by debuting two years later, Wright's chances to stay on the ballot are vastly improved due to smaller bottleneck (and fewer slam-dunk players as part of that bottleneck).

                  Finally, there is the narrative. Wright's little homecoming this week generated a lot of chatter about his Hall of Fame credentials and what he meant to the Mets. The argument that Toledo made in the Joe Mauer thread (re: a franchise icon) is even more true of the Mets' Captain America. FWIW, I realize this is anecdotal, but the consensus among pundits and announcers that I heard this week was that Wright has a favorable case for Cooperstown. They universally acknowledged him as a "Hall of Fame talent". Not that his performance this week changed anything about his production, but had Wright quietly slipped away into the night, without a formal retirement as so many players often do, he would not have attracted this kind of attention or reflection from the chattering class around the game and the attention, I believe, will yield a positive affect on his chances when he does hit the ballot.

                  To summarize, Wright set his Hall eligibility back two additional years - unintentionally, I'm sure - but it will end up helping his chances, hopefully by a significant measure..
                  He will be one and done regardless. Rightly or wrongly, even in NY he is seen as a guy who 'had HOF potential', or 'was at one time headed to the HOF', similar to a Daryl Strawberry. I can imagine in other parts of the country he is seen as even less than that.

                  I agree, he is not a HOFer. But that's not a knock on him, I have pretty high standards. He had only 3.2 WAR after age 30, and that means his entire case rests on his through age 30 career. Not many guys were already HOFers by age 30. Wright looked like a sure bet at age 25. At age 30 he looked to have a real good shot. Then..nothing.
                  Last edited by willshad; 10-04-2018, 12:34 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by willshad View Post
                    He will be one and done regardless. Rightly or wrongly, even in NY he is seen as a guy who 'had HOF potential', or 'was at one time headed to the HOF', similar to a Daryl Strawberry. I can imagine in other parts of the country he is seen as even less than that.

                    I agree, he is not a HOFer. But that's not a knock on him, I have pretty high standards. He had only 3.2 WAR after age 30, and that means his entire case rests on his through age 30 career. Not many guys were already HOFers by age 30. Wright looked like a sure bet at age 25. At age 30 he looked to have a real good shot. Then..nothing.
                    Agree with what? He's a HOF in my book. As for the one-and-done, I think you're wrong about that, but we'll have to wait six years to find out.
                    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by willshad View Post

                      He will be one and done regardless. Rightly or wrongly, even in NY he is seen as a guy who 'had HOF potential', or 'was at one time headed to the HOF', similar to a Daryl Strawberry. I can imagine in other parts of the country he is seen as even less than that.

                      I agree, he is not a HOFer. But that's not a knock on him, I have pretty high standards. He had only 3.2 WAR after age 30, and that means his entire case rests on his through age 30 career. Not many guys were already HOFers by age 30. Wright looked like a sure bet at age 25. At age 30 he looked to have a real good shot. Then..nothing.
                      I have him in my personal HOF, but you're probably spot on here. Wright was the best third baseman the Mets ever had, but he will not make it into the HOF. He needed 2 more peak level seasons to get over the hump. He might linger around 10% for a bunch of years (like Mattingly), but his career was too short and there are too many similar third basemen not in the HOF.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

                        I have him in my personal HOF, but you're probably spot on here. Wright was the best third baseman the Mets ever had, but he will not make it into the HOF. He needed 2 more peak level seasons to get over the hump. He might linger around 10% for a bunch of years (like Mattingly), but his career was too short and there are too many similar third basemen not in the HOF.
                        I'd go further than that...he is the best position player the Mets have ever had, in terms of one's career only as a Met.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Cougar View Post

                          I'd go further than that...he is the best position player the Mets have ever had, in terms of one's career only as a Met.
                          You're probably right on there. Off the top of my head, Wright, Strawberry, Piazza, Alfonso, Grote, Reyes, Wilson, Hernandez, Carter, Beltran.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post
                            I have him in my personal HOF, but you're probably spot on here. Wright was the best third baseman the Mets ever had, but he will not make it into the HOF. He needed 2 more peak level seasons to get over the hump. He might linger around 10% for a bunch of years (like Mattingly), but his career was too short and there are too many similar third basemen not in the HOF.
                            I agree with everything you said but just want to make the point that Wright had a more well-rounded game than just about every third baseman ever not named Schmidt, Brett or Chipper. I'm dang near talking myself into David Wright being a HoFer. I'm not so sure I wouldn't take Wright over everyone from 11-22 on baseball-reference's third base JAWS list. Jimmy Collins, Home Run Baker and Dick Allen would be his main competition and I'd likely have him behind them all. I mean seriously he's probably a top 15 third baseman all-time.
                            "No matter how great you were once upon a time — the years go by, and men forget,” - W. A. Phelon in Baseball Magazine in 1915. “Ross Barnes, forty years ago, was as great as Cobb or Wagner ever dared to be. Had scores been kept then as now, he would have seemed incomparably marvelous.”

                            Comment


                            • No one else in Major League history has more seasons (5) with 40 doubles, 20 homers, and 15 stolen bases than David Wright, so he has that going for him.

                              But seriously, he was a great player in his prime but unfortunately, because of injuries he did nothing in his 30's and he's just not close to being a hall of famer. 1,777 hits, 242 home runs....he's not close. I mean if Bernie Williams and Kenny Lofton dropped off in their first year on the ballot and people are still debating whether Carlos Beltran or Larry Walker - players with vastly better careers - are deserving, then Wright isn't even be in the conversation. Those two guys will be elected eventually but there are so many guys with better careers than Wright who will never sniff the hall of fame. Bobby Abreu comes to mind, for example. Todd Helton is another one.

                              It's sad and it's unfortunate, but it's the truth.
                              Last edited by GiambiJuice; 10-04-2018, 09:13 PM.
                              My top 10 players:

                              1. Babe Ruth
                              2. Barry Bonds
                              3. Ty Cobb
                              4. Ted Williams
                              5. Willie Mays
                              6. Alex Rodriguez
                              7. Hank Aaron
                              8. Honus Wagner
                              9. Lou Gehrig
                              10. Mickey Mantle

                              Comment


                              • Another random stat.

                                Wright had at least 25 hr, 100 rbi, 40 doubles, and 15 sb in four consecutive seasons (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008).

                                No other player did it more than twice in their career.

                                The players who did it twice are:

                                Babe Ruth (1921, 1923)
                                Chuck Klein (1932, 1933)
                                Jeff Bagwell (1996, 1997)
                                Kevin Young (1998, 1999) - who????
                                Bobby Abreu (2001, 2004)
                                Carlos Beltran (2002, 2008)
                                Alfonso Soriano (2002, 2005)


                                My top 10 players:

                                1. Babe Ruth
                                2. Barry Bonds
                                3. Ty Cobb
                                4. Ted Williams
                                5. Willie Mays
                                6. Alex Rodriguez
                                7. Hank Aaron
                                8. Honus Wagner
                                9. Lou Gehrig
                                10. Mickey Mantle

                                Comment

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