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  • Sockeye
    started a poll David Wright

    David Wright

    66
    Yes, he'll deserve to be in the HOF
    57.58%
    38
    No, his numbers will not merit HOF induction
    42.42%
    28
    It has been about 3 years since the last series of potential HOFer polls I ran. Thought I would do another series of polls. Below is a list of the players stats to date. Unlike the last series of polls I'm not going to list any career projections.

    David Wright at age 26

    753 games
    2837 at-bats
    495 runs
    879 hits
    195 doubles
    13 triples
    133 home runs
    519 RBI
    104 stolen bases
    372 BB
    .310 AVG
    .391 OBP
    .528 SLG
    138 OPS+
    1499 total bases
    3268 PA's
    600 runs created
    7.7 RC/G
    .689 OWP
    173.0 batting runs
    16.2 batting wins
    0 black ink
    70 gray ink
    56 HOF monitor
    30 HOF standards
    .319 EQA
    32.0 WARP1
    35.3 WARP3
    322 BRAR
    231 BRAA
    95 FRAR
    -15 FRAA
    132 win shares

  • Jar of Flies
    replied
    He's a split candidate, but I'd support Tommy Leach as a 3B.

    Worth a mention is Ned Williamson, I'd pluck him before Ezra Sutton.

    Toby Harrah was excellent, but flies completely under the radar.

    Al Rosen is a peak only candidate, but he was amazing for awhile.

    Leave a comment:


  • Chadwick
    replied
    There are 232 former MLB players in the Hall of Fame. Only 12 of them were really third basemen, 13 if you count Paul Molitor. (Deacon White should be classified as a catcher, not third baseman.) Either way, that's only 5-6% of the Hall's inductees represented at the least-represented position in Cooperstown.

    Here they are, in order of MLB debut:

    Jimmy Collins (1895-1908)
    Frank Baker (1908-1922)
    Pie Traynor (1920-1937)
    Freddie Lindstrom (1924-1936)
    George Kell (1943-1957)
    Eddie Mathews (1952-1968)
    Brooks Robinson (1955-1977)
    Ron Santo (1960-1974)
    Mike Schmidt (1972-1989)
    George Brett (1973-1993)
    Wade Boggs (1982-1999)
    Chipper Jones (1995-2012)

    Freddie Lindstrom and George Kell are mistakes that shouldn't be used as a standard for future elections. It's not unreasonable to look at Pie Traynor the same way.

    Now, here are the top former MLB third base candidates:

    Ezra Sutton (1871-1888)
    Heinie Groh (1912-1927)
    Stan Hack (1932-1947)
    Bob Elliott (1939-1953)
    Ken Boyer (1955-1969)
    Dick Allen (1963-1977)
    Sal Bando (1966-1981)
    Graig Nettles (1967-1988)
    Darrell Evans (1969-1989)
    Ron Cey (1971-1987)
    Buddy Bell (1972-1989)
    Robin Ventura (1989-2004)
    Scott Rolen (1996-2012)
    Adrian Beltre (1998-2018)
    David Wright (2004-2018)

    I really don't think there's an argument (based on Cooperstown's current composition) for anyone not on this list (active players excluded).

    While inducting all of these players isn't practicable, I do think there's somewhere around 10 of them who belong in the Hall, at least. The question is whether David Wright represents one of those.

    Frankly, I have Boyer, Allen, Nettles, Rolen and Beltre as the best of that list, with the Bando/Bell/Cey/Evans group hard to tell apart just behind them, but I could be convinced on any of these players. I guess I see Wright as just behind that group of players, meaning that he'd be a better selection than Hack or Groh, for example.

    Scott Rolen has now been on the BBWAA ballot for two years, going from 10 to 17 percent support in that time. In fact, heading into 2020, Rolen is the 8th-best supported holdover. As the bottleneck passes from the BBWAA to the Today's Game Committee, Rolen's support will continue to rise.

    We won't see another third baseman worth discussing until 2024 when both Beltre and Wright debut. By that time, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rolen with support from a majority of voters. The contrast with Vizquel will make Rolen more visible and certainly favors Rolen's case. With Bonds, Clemens, Schilling and Sosa leaving the ballot no later than 2022, the electorate will be able to focus more clearly on the top holdover candidates over the next several years. That will probably be Vizquel, Rolen, Ortiz and maybe Helton and A-Rod.

    Beltre will be an obvious first-year inductee. Not only will we have five more years of electorate evolution, but Beltre reaching 3,000 hits will clinch it for three-fourths of the private voters, too. Wright hitting the ballot will probably do more to draw attention to Rolen's strengths than anything else over the latter's eight remaining years on the ballot. I can see the BBWAA electing Rolen in his 9th or 10th year. There aren't many holdovers I can envision that happening to.

    There is also the possibility than Dick Allen is elected by the Glory Days Era Committee in 2021, which would also help Rolen's case with the BBWAA (albeit less directly).

    How this bears on Wright, however, is that the election of Rolen (and Allen) could help Wright by filling the gaps ahead of him, somewhat, leaving the "Wright vs. _______" candidate cage matches less clearly favoring his opponents. If he remains on the ballot, it would also retain Wright as the best eligible BBWAA third baseman until Evan Longoria debuts. (Unless Josh Donaldson turns things around, a Donaldson candidacy will only serve to draw positive attention to Wright, by comparison.)

    I don't expect David Wright to ever be elected by the BBWAA, but by the time he debuts for the Today's Game Era Committee in 2034, not only will David Wright be the best third baseman from the Today's Game Era, but at least three of the better candidates ahead of him on the list above will already be enshrined in Cooperstown, which makes Wright something like the 4th or 5th or 6th-best third baseman outside Cooperstown at that time, rather than somewhere around the 10th-best as he may be now.

    Wright won't be elected before his 60th birthday, but he may eventually be elected in his lifetime, once the Todays Game Committee is populated by guys like Albert Pujols, Clayton Kershaw, Scott Rolen and Miguel Cabrera.

    Leave a comment:


  • jjpm74
    replied
    That doesn't answer the question!

    Leave a comment:


  • redban
    replied
    Originally posted by jjpm74 View Post

    What stats are you using to come to this conclusion?
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...righda03.shtml

    Leave a comment:


  • jjpm74
    replied
    Originally posted by redban View Post

    2011 -- played in 102 games

    2012 -- the numbers are deceptively good. Look at the 1st half / 2nd half splits. I'm not saying he had a "bad" year; it's was okay. But it wasn't excellent because of inconsistency.

    2013 - 112 games.

    He was okay in 2009 & 2010. But not excellent. The offensive numbers look good, but recall that his defense was poor.


    2005 - 2008 = Hall of Famer.

    Everything after 2008 = not Hall of Famer
    What stats are you using to come to this conclusion?

    Leave a comment:


  • redban
    replied
    Originally posted by willshad View Post

    You sell him a bit short I think. He didn't have any 'bad' years; even in 2011 his OPS+ was 115. 2012 was an MVP quality season (finished sixth in the voting). In 2009 and 2010 he had very good, full years as well, just not quite as good as we might expect. In 2013 he got hurt, but also had an MVP quality season even in limited games.

    I don't know that a good all around third baseman with a 133 or 144, or even 124 OPS+ can be called 'just okay'. It wasn't until 2014 when he really fell off the map.
    2011 -- played in 102 games

    2012 -- the numbers are deceptively good. Look at the 1st half / 2nd half splits. I'm not saying he had a "bad" year; it's was okay. But it wasn't excellent because of inconsistency.

    2013 - 112 games.

    He was okay in 2009 & 2010. But not excellent. The offensive numbers look good, but recall that his defense was poor.


    2005 - 2008 = Hall of Famer.

    Everything after 2008 = not Hall of Famer

    Leave a comment:


  • willshad
    replied
    Originally posted by redban View Post

    Yes, the rate stats form his biggest claim to the Hall of Fame. Yet all of his rate stats are "tainted" by the fact that he retired early and, thus, avoided a late-career decline. Therefore, his biggest claim to the Hall of Fame isn't even a legitimate claim.

    He was a Hall of Fame player from 2005-2008. After 2008, he was either bad (e.g 2011), injured (e.g. 2013-2018), or just okay (e.g 2009, 2010, 2012).
    You sell him a bit short I think. He didn't have any 'bad' years; even in 2011 his OPS+ was 115. 2012 was an MVP quality season (finished sixth in the voting). In 2009 and 2010 he had very good, full years as well, just not quite as good as we might expect. In 2013 he got hurt, but also had an MVP quality season even in limited games.

    I don't know that a good all around third baseman with a 133 or 144, or even 124 OPS+ can be called 'just okay'. It wasn't until 2014 when he really fell off the map.
    Last edited by willshad; 01-31-2019, 11:31 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • jjpm74
    replied
    Originally posted by redban View Post

    Yes, the rate stats form his biggest claim to the Hall of Fame. Yet all of his rate stats are "tainted" by the fact that he retired early and, thus, avoided a late-career decline. Therefore, his biggest claim to the Hall of Fame isn't even a legitimate claim.

    He was a Hall of Fame player from 2005-2008. After 2008, he was either bad (e.g 2011), injured (e.g. 2013-2018), or just okay (e.g 2009, 2010, 2012).
    In fairness, if you are going to penalize him for not having a decline phase, the offset is that his counting stats would also be well within what one looks for in a HOF third baseman. Had he stayed somewhat healthy and played out his contract, assuming a normal decline, Wright would have had around 2800 hits, 400 HRs, 1500 R, 1500 RBI, and an OPS+ around 125. That, along with being a 7X All Star, and the fact that his JAWS score would bump him up to 14th puts him well within the HOF with that line of reasoning.

    Leave a comment:


  • redban
    replied
    Originally posted by jalbright View Post
    David Wright

    You can certainly make a case for or against him. On the plus side, he was a seven time all-star, which is a HOF qualification. He does well in rate stats, finishing 15th among 3b in average, 12th in OBP, 9th in slugging and 11th in OPS+. He is just outside on career WAR at 22nd, but inside in WAA at 15th. In my rating system, he's in the upper half of the gray area. When we compare him in WAR or WAA to his peers, he's 6th or 7th in 20 seasons starting five before he made the majors through 2018.

    He's middling in extra base hits at 23rd and stolen bases among 3B.

    After that, he's got a bunch of negatives. He's 242nd in MVP shares, which isn't good enough when we're only talking about position players. He had no black ink, and his gray ink is even lower ranked than his MVP shares. His HOF standards are 213th among position players, which again is too low. Two of the biggest counting stats, total bases and times on base are 28th and 33rd. among 3B respectively. He basically comes in between his 28th in total bases and his 52nd in plate appearances in runs, RBI. hits and walks.

    My gut says that since WAR says his overall career defense is a small negative, I think WAR may be a bit generous to him. If that's true, his case collapses. He's close, but I just can't sign on with him.
    Yes, the rate stats form his biggest claim to the Hall of Fame. Yet all of his rate stats are "tainted" by the fact that he retired early and, thus, avoided a late-career decline. Therefore, his biggest claim to the Hall of Fame isn't even a legitimate claim.

    He was a Hall of Fame player from 2005-2008. After 2008, he was either bad (e.g 2011), injured (e.g. 2013-2018), or just okay (e.g 2009, 2010, 2012).

    Leave a comment:


  • jalbright
    replied
    David Wright

    You can certainly make a case for or against him. On the plus side, he was a seven time all-star, which is a HOF qualification. He does well in rate stats, finishing 15th among 3b in average, 12th in OBP, 9th in slugging and 11th in OPS+. He is just outside on career WAR at 22nd, but inside in WAA at 15th. In my rating system, he's in the upper half of the gray area. When we compare him in WAR or WAA to his peers, he's 6th or 7th in 20 seasons starting five before he made the majors through 2018.

    He's middling in extra base hits at 23rd and stolen bases among 3B.

    After that, he's got a bunch of negatives. He's 242nd in MVP shares, which isn't good enough when we're only talking about position players. He had no black ink, and his gray ink is even lower ranked than his MVP shares. His HOF standards are 213th among position players, which again is too low. Two of the biggest counting stats, total bases and times on base are 28th and 33rd. among 3B respectively. He basically comes in between his 28th in total bases and his 52nd in plate appearances in runs, RBI. hits and walks.

    My gut says that since WAR says his overall career defense is a small negative, I think WAR may be a bit generous to him. If that's true, his case collapses. He's close, but I just can't sign on with him.

    Leave a comment:


  • bluesky5
    replied
    Originally posted by sturg1dj View Post

    Which is a reason I think that when it comes to award wins/shares they should only help and never hurt when talking about HOF. It should be extra, but not a good comparison stat.
    Not sure what you’re saying here.

    Leave a comment:


  • sturg1dj
    replied
    Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post

    Williams and the writers famously didn't get along.
    Which is a reason I think that when it comes to award wins/shares they should only help and never hurt when talking about HOF. It should be extra, but not a good comparison stat.

    Leave a comment:


  • sturg1dj
    replied
    Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
    It's bad enough that David Wright's career was cut short when he appeared to many ot be on a HOF track before his back injury, but now his HOF thread is taken up with conversation for pages and pages about players other than David Wright. sigh
    That's how all of these threads seem to go.

    But going back to Wright, even with injuries I would vote him in. But if it were up to me I would have a very inclusive hall of fame.

    Leave a comment:


  • SavoyBG
    replied
    Originally posted by Cougar View Post

    The Red Sox also went 69-85 in 1954. Couldn't have helped.

    (Even with that lousy record they were still 4th out of 8 teams, for what it's worth.)
    Ted might have played another 5 years if there had been a DH then.

    Leave a comment:

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