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  • bluesky5
    replied
    Originally posted by Bamay22 View Post

    How do you “overrate” a walk? Nobody in the saber-metric community ever thought that a walk was more valuable than a hit. Batting average was never degraded, the only thing that happened was on base percentage was viewed(and correctly viewed) as more important than it was.
    No one ever said the sabermetric community thought a walk was more valuable than a hit. It absolutely was degraded. It was their main talking point and continues to be their prime example of "misguided" or "old" thinking. They can claim to view on base percentage however they want. Once they began to dictate personnel and play style OBP dropped. Hardly evidence of valuing OBP other than lip service.

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  • Bamay22
    replied
    Originally posted by bluesky5 View Post

    Fact. They also denigrate batting average even though it makes up 2/3 to 3/4 of OBP. The war on batting average was their opening salvo. They understood that getting on base is what was of primary importance and that once their ideas were adopted we would see "more productive" at bats and hitters and thus more exciting offense because they "understood where real value comes from" and "what really wins ballgames." Also a fact that OBP plummeted to historic lows when sabermetricians became the norm in front offices and began dictating lineups and on field strategy. Players used to want to hit .300 and today MLBs OBP stands at .311 so they did the exact opposite of what they said they would do... but we just won't talk about that now will we.
    How do you “overrate” a walk? Nobody in the saber-metric community ever thought that a walk was more valuable than a hit. Batting average was never degraded, the only thing that happened was on base percentage was viewed(and correctly viewed) as more important than it was.

    Leave a comment:


  • bluesky5
    replied
    Originally posted by willshad View Post

    Advanced stats overrate walks and underrate (in fact most of them totally ignore) actual runs. Mathematically, it is always wrong to walk even prime Ruth or Bonds, but in reality it is smart because if you walk them, there is zero chance they can really hurt you. In reality, a guy who makes more outs than another guy but also drives in many more runs is very valuable, but in advanced stats his extra RBI are ignored. Mathematics can't always mirror reality. The whole idea that we can capture the entire game in a clean, neat formula is very flawed.

    It's kind of like doing a study to see if a product will be popular, or if the stock market will go up. Success isn't measured by how well it does in the study itself, but how it does in reality. In a way, advanced stats are basing success on the mathematical study and ignoring what actually happens.
    Fact. They also denigrate batting average even though it makes up 2/3 to 3/4 of OBP. The war on batting average was their opening salvo. They understood that getting on base is what was of primary importance and that once their ideas were adopted we would see "more productive" at bats and hitters and thus more exciting offense because they "understood where real value comes from" and "what really wins ballgames." Also a fact that OBP plummeted to historic lows when sabermetricians became the norm in front offices and began dictating lineups and on field strategy. Players used to want to hit .300 and today MLBs OBP stands at .311 so they did the exact opposite of what they said they would do... but we just won't talk about that now will we.
    Last edited by bluesky5; 06-05-2022, 02:12 PM.

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  • Bamay22
    replied
    Originally posted by willshad View Post

    Advanced stats overrate walks and underrate (in fact most of them totally ignore) actual runs. Mathematically, it is always wrong to walk even prime Ruth or Bonds, but in reality it is smart because if you walk them, there is zero chance they can really hurt you. In reality, a guy who makes more outs than another guy but also drives in many more runs is very valuable, but in advanced stats his extra RBI are ignored. Mathematics can't always mirror reality. The whole idea that we can capture the entire game in a clean, neat formula is very flawed.

    It's kind of like doing a study to see if a product will be popular, or if the stock market will go up. Success isn't measured by how well it does in the study itself, but how it does in reality. In a way, advanced stats are basing success on the mathematical study and ignoring what actually happens.
    This isn’t a reality based game. You can’t say that Barry Bonds taking a walk and say Johnny Bench taking a walk should mean any less for Bonds and more for Bench due to the vast difference in their skills as hitters.

    To those saying that it’s a win for the pitcher, it really isn’t. Sure it’s better than a home run but the pitcher has still “lost” in the sense that he failed to get the batter out.

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  • willshad
    replied
    Originally posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post

    Correct. WAR SF doesn't punish not walking. It punishes making outs. If a batter hit .400 every season in all singles and zero walks...he would still have a better WAR based on OB% than a guy with a .370 OB% with tons of them being walks. It's why a light walker from a corner OF position like Gwynn (whose defense was about a net wash given his last half slowdown) still racked-up 70 WAR. Dont believe anyone who says WAR only cares about walks or any such nonsense.
    Advanced stats overrate walks and underrate (in fact most of them totally ignore) actual runs. Mathematically, it is always wrong to walk even prime Ruth or Bonds, but in reality it is smart because if you walk them, there is zero chance they can really hurt you. In reality, a guy who makes more outs than another guy but also drives in many more runs is very valuable, but in advanced stats his extra RBI are ignored. Mathematics can't always mirror reality. The whole idea that we can capture the entire game in a clean, neat formula is very flawed.

    It's kind of like doing a study to see if a product will be popular, or if the stock market will go up. Success isn't measured by how well it does in the study itself, but how it does in reality. In a way, advanced stats are basing success on the mathematical study and ignoring what actually happens.
    Last edited by willshad; 06-05-2022, 09:48 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fuzzy Bear
    replied
    Goslin was a VC pick who did terribly in the voting:
    1948 BBWAA ( 0.8%)
    1949 BBWAA ( 2.6%)
    1950 BBWAA ( 1.2%)
    1954 BBWAA ( 0.4%)
    1955 BBWAA ( 2.8%)
    1956 BBWAA (13.5%)
    1958 BBWAA ( 9.8%)
    1960 BBWAA (11.2%)
    1962 BBWAA ( 8.8%)
    That's Goslin's BBWAA vote record. Not impressive. What pushed Goslin forward as a candidate was a long career and a .316 career BA in an era where the AL Batting Champ hit ..301 and the "vanishing .300 hitter" drove a LOT of discussion.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Originally posted by Bamay22 View Post

    Even then his raw OPS+ stats top Gos's. What this basically means is that Simmons was far superior with the bat alone and his BA compared to league average confirms this.
    Correct. WAR SF doesn't punish not walking. It punishes making outs. If a batter hit .400 every season in all singles and zero walks...he would still have a better WAR based on OB% than a guy with a .370 OB% with tons of them being walks. It's why a light walker from a corner OF position like Gwynn (whose defense was about a net wash given his last half slowdown) still racked-up 70 WAR. Dont believe anyone who says WAR only cares about walks or any such nonsense.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bamay22
    replied
    Originally posted by layson27 View Post
    Simmons is hurt in advanced hitting stats (OPS+ & Rbat) and War because his walk rate was so low compared to most other great hitters. Goslin's BB% was close to 10%, while Simmons' was only 6.5%. DiMaggio is known as someone who really didn't walk that much either, though his BB% is similar to Goslin's, about 10%.
    Even then his raw OPS+ stats top Gos's. What this basically means is that Simmons was far superior with the bat alone and his BA compared to league average confirms this.

    Leave a comment:


  • layson27
    replied
    Simmons is hurt in advanced hitting stats (OPS+ & Rbat) and War because his walk rate was so low compared to most other great hitters. Goslin's BB% was close to 10%, while Simmons' was only 6.5%. DiMaggio is known as someone who really didn't walk that much either, though his BB% is similar to Goslin's, about 10%.

    Leave a comment:


  • bluesky5
    replied
    Al Simmons will also quit on the ball club. Not sure Goslin ever had that reputation. Just the normal yearly salary holdouts that came with the reserve clause. He was certainly no great shakes with the glove. They were teammates on the 1938 Senators. On 4/24 they drove in all 3 runs on pinch hits in a 4-3 L at the New York. Goslin hit a tying 2 run HR in the 7th and Simmons had the go ahead sac fly to score Buddy Lewis the next inning. But the bullpen blew it. Looks like they started together on 6/11 with Goose in left and Simmons in center and on 6/22 with Goose in right and Simmons in left.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bamay22
    replied
    Originally posted by willshad View Post
    I've always considered Goslin to be a poor man's Al Simmons. Perhaps this isn't really fair, as they are not really that far apart. A middle class man's Al Simmons maybe? Does anyone rank Goslin ahead?
    Gos is pretty close as Simmons was definitely helped by his home park and Goslin was hurt by it. I think this essentially evens them out as hitters. Simmons would get the edge on defense as he played some quality innings as a CF. This puts Simmons ahead in my book although it is just a slight lead. Might I add that after Goslin on my list is Billy Williams.

    Leave a comment:


  • willshad
    replied
    I've always considered Goslin to be a poor man's Al Simmons. Perhaps this isn't really fair, as they are not really that far apart. A middle class man's Al Simmons maybe? Does anyone rank Goslin ahead?

    Leave a comment:


  • Bamay22
    replied
    Originally posted by leecemark View Post
    --Goslin has been largely forgotten. A little surprising given his catchy nickname, key role on 5 pennant winners (including all 3 in Senators history) and his overall outstanding play. Had he played any place but Griffith Stadium he would have hit alot more HR, but he managed to drive home a ton of runs with doubles and triples anyway. He was a very good defensive player as well.
    --In the Buckerfoot Al thread I mentioned Goslin earlier today as one of 8 LFers who could rank anywhere from 8-15 all time at the position. Even if you put him at the top of that group its going to leave him out of the top 50. If he is closer to the bottom he doesn't even make the top 100. We may have the chance to slot him in one of those groups soon. Check out the thread Ranking the Legends to see if you'd be interested in doing that.
    I've got him at 14 with Simmons at 13. 12 is Fred Clarke and 11 is Tim Raines.

    Leave a comment:


  • Fuzzy Bear
    replied
    Originally posted by KCGHOST
    Goslin was a fine player who, unfortunately, played half his career in a very tough ballpark and played in a time of mega-stars.
    Goslin suffers from being a Washington Senator, a team that no longer exists; it died twice.

    Goslin also suffers from being inducted into the HOF with Heinie Manush and Kiki Cuyler, both of whom are criticized picks. Goslin was better than both of them.

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  • leecemark
    replied
    --Not setting the bar very high for yourself there, Jim .
    --Nomar, you'll find this a friendlier place if you try and add something of value to the discussion and not just insult other people's opinions. In this case I agree with your conclusion, but I hope for both more substance and civility from those who take my side of an issue.

    Leave a comment:

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