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Relievers in the Hall of Fame

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  • Relievers in the Hall of Fame

    I'm opening this thread as a consequence of thinking about Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter. I've inputted the win shares for every relief pitcher from 1972-2003 into my computer and am using the data to analyze reliever performance relative to other relief pitchers. The results are very interesting.

    For example:

    Bruce Sutter
    12 years, 168 win shares
    14 win shares/yr. avg.
    Led league: 3 times
    Top ten: 8 times
    Best 5 consecutive: 94 (1977-81)

    Goose Gossage
    22 years, 223 win shares
    10 win shares/yr. avg.
    Lead league: 2 times
    Top ten: 9 times
    Best 5 consecutive: 90 (1975-79)

    Lee Smith
    18 years, 198 win shares
    11 win shares/yr. avg.
    Led league: 1 time
    Top ten: 10 times
    Best 5 consecutive: 83 (1983-87)
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

  • #2
    How does Jeff Reardon's career stack up against those three Chancellor?

    Comment


    • #3
      Also if it is not to much trouble who seem like the ten best canidates not in the Hall of Fame?

      Comment


      • #4
        Interesting info, but I don't think Win Shares is nearly as effective for relievers (or pitchers in general) as it is for position players. Still, it's as good as any stat we've got. Anyone who is able to invent a statistic that effectively measures the value of relievers should get the Nobel Prize for Baseball.

        Comment


        • #5
          Quisenberry, Franco anyone?
          Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
          Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

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          • #6
            I'd interested to see how this list would stack up against current HOF relievers

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by dgarza
              I'd interested to see how this list would stack up against current HOF relievers
              There's not a lot even if you count Eck
              Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
              Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Chancellor
                I'm opening this thread as a consequence of thinking about Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter. I've inputted the win shares for every relief pitcher from 1972-2003 into my computer and am using the data to analyze reliever performance relative to other relief pitchers. The results are very interesting.

                For example:

                Bruce Sutter
                12 years, 168 win shares
                14 win shares/yr. avg.
                Led league: 3 times
                Top ten: 8 times
                Best 5 consecutive: 94 (1977-81)

                Goose Gossage
                22 years, 223 win shares
                10 win shares/yr. avg.
                Lead league: 2 times
                Top ten: 9 times
                Best 5 consecutive: 90 (1975-79)

                Lee Smith
                18 years, 198 win shares
                11 win shares/yr. avg.
                Led league: 1 time
                Top ten: 10 times
                Best 5 consecutive: 83 (1983-87)

                Good Work, a great compliment to the "study" I did a while back ranking top relievers using all major pitching categories.

                Top Relief Pitchers

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                With the Hall of Fame voting going on and several top relievers being mentioned, I used the "formula" I had previously used during the Marichal/Palmer/Ford/Ryan runoff, with a few changes.

                28 relievers have at least 200 saves in history, with less than 52 starts (I used 52 instead of 50 to get Wilhelm in) I used those 2 items as career filters. I'm figuring career value, not big seasons.
                If writers don't start electing the Gossage's, Sutter's and Lee Smith's, there is going to be a tremendous backlog of top relievers coming up behind them.

                My "findings"- using a 28pts for 1st down to 1pt. for 28th. etc......


                PTS.
                277-Hoyt Wilhelm
                236-Trevor Hoffman
                233-Tom Henke
                230-Rollie Fingers
                223-Mariano Rivera
                217-Goose Gossage
                214-Lee Smith
                214-John Wetteland
                211-John Franco
                207-Bruce Sutter
                199-Robb Nen
                194-Dan Quisenberry
                192-Jeff Reardon
                184-Doug Jones
                179-Billy Wagner
                174-Sparky Lyle
                163-Rod Beck
                162-Roberto Hernandez
                159-Jeff Montgomery
                157-Troy Percival
                147-Randy Myers
                141-Todd Worrell
                138-Gene Garber
                134-Dave Smith
                120-Ugueth Urbina
                86-Gregg Olson
                81-Jeff Shaw
                35- Bobby Thigpen

                NOTE--- Dennis Eckersley(361), Jose Mesa(95), Dave Righetti(89) and Rick Aguilera(89) had to be left out due to the the amount of games they started. (More than 52).

                If they were in than Eck would be at the top of this list and the others roughly near the bottom.
                AL
                __________________
                Last edited by nightal; 01-18-2005, 04:30 PM.
                Waner, Mantle, Bench, Nightal?

                Comment


                • #9
                  I posted this recently on the LEE SMITH thread in this Forum.

                  It seems appropriate here and I'd like your opinion.

                  "A recent article in The NY TIMES shed some new light on baseball’s top relievers and noted that raw saves don’t provide a true measure of a reliever’s HOF worthiness, because save chances have become easier to convert in the past 15 years.

                  The analysis notes that “not all saves are created equal,” and that the relief appearances of Sutter and Gossage lasted longer and were more trying than those of the Eckersley-like closers of today, who seldom go more than an inning.

                  Eckersley’s saves lasted an average of 3.33 outs; in contrast, Gossage (4.73), Sutter (4.72) and Fingers (4.82) lasted more than 40% longer. Moreover, 63% of Eckersley’s save chances came with none out in the 9th, compared with only 31-35% for the other three pitchers.

                  In addition, those earlier relievers faced more threatening situations; Eckersley entered many games with no one on base and faced an average of only .49 inherited runners per game, vs. .67 for Sutter, .86 for Gossage and Fingers, and 1.08 for Sparky Lyle.

                  These numbers put a new face on the comparison of the top relievers, and show that Lyle and Gossage are in the same category as Fingers (the only modern closer currently in the Hall). And considerably more impressive than Eckersley, who’s in the Hall partly because he won 149 games as a starter before switching to relief.


                  Code:
                                       ERA   SAVES     OUTS/     I.R.G.                                 
                                                         SAVE
                  Lyle                 2.88     238      4.66       1.08
                  Fingers             2.73     341      4.82       .86
                  Gossage             2.77    310       4.72        .86
                  Sutter              2.83    300       4.73         .67    
                  Quisenberry         2.76    244       5.19        .77
                  Smith               3.03     478      3.72        .50
                  Eckersley            2.90   387       3.33        .49  
                  
                  I.R.G. = Inherited Runners per Game
                  As for Smith...his huge total of 478 saves can be seen as more of the modern variety, and less impressive than Lyle, Fingers and Gossage.

                  And it makes a strong case for considering Quisenberry for the Hall.

                  Here's a link to the article:
                  http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/02/s...html?oref=login"

                  What do you think? Is this a valid means of evaluating/comparing relievers?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Yes, as all studies and/or opinions; this is very interesting. I'm not sure what to make of it, but yes, Quiz matches up very well here. BTW, what an underrated guy. Great reliever and very good man.
                    I'd also like to hear from more about Tom Henke, he sometimes gets overlooked when talking about relievers.
                    Last edited by nightal; 01-18-2005, 08:53 PM.
                    Waner, Mantle, Bench, Nightal?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by shlevine42
                      I posted this recently on the LEE SMITH thread in this Forum.

                      It seems appropriate here and I'd like your opinion.

                      "A recent article in The NY TIMES shed some new light on baseball’s top relievers and noted that raw saves don’t provide a true measure of a reliever’s HOF worthiness, because save chances have become easier to convert in the past 15 years.

                      The analysis notes that “not all saves are created equal,” and that the relief appearances of Sutter and Gossage lasted longer and were more trying than those of the Eckersley-like closers of today, who seldom go more than an inning.

                      Eckersley’s saves lasted an average of 3.33 outs; in contrast, Gossage (4.73), Sutter (4.72) and Fingers (4.82) lasted more than 40% longer. Moreover, 63% of Eckersley’s save chances came with none out in the 9th, compared with only 31-35% for the other three pitchers.

                      In addition, those earlier relievers faced more threatening situations; Eckersley entered many games with no one on base and faced an average of only .49 inherited runners per game, vs. .67 for Sutter, .86 for Gossage and Fingers, and 1.08 for Sparky Lyle.

                      These numbers put a new face on the comparison of the top relievers, and show that Lyle and Gossage are in the same category as Fingers (the only modern closer currently in the Hall). And considerably more impressive than Eckersley, who’s in the Hall partly because he won 149 games as a starter before switching to relief.


                      Code:
                                           ERA   SAVES     OUTS/     I.R.G.                                 
                                                             SAVE
                      Lyle                 2.88     238      4.66       1.08
                      Fingers             2.73     341      4.82       .86
                      Gossage             2.77    310       4.72        .86
                      Sutter              2.83    300       4.73         .67    
                      Quisenberry         2.76    244       5.19        .77
                      Smith               3.03     478      3.72        .50
                      Eckersley            2.90   387       3.33        .49  
                      
                      I.R.G. = Inherited Runners per Game
                      As for Smith...his huge total of 478 saves can be seen as more of the modern variety, and less impressive than Lyle, Fingers and Gossage.

                      And it makes a strong case for considering Quisenberry for the Hall.

                      Here's a link to the article:
                      http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/02/s...html?oref=login"

                      What do you think? Is this a valid means of evaluating/comparing relievers?
                      Except that for all of Smith's short saves, he still had 24% more innings than Sutter. And a much better ERA+ than Fingers. And was in the top 10 more times than Gossage, and was a Save king and in the top 10 more than Gossage.
                      Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
                      Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        --I think the difference is that it is MUCH easier to come in to start the 9th with the bases empty than it is to come in with men on in the 7th or 8th and fiinish out the game. An dead average major league pitcher can come in and throw one scoreless inning about 2/3 of the time. You don't need a great pitcher to fill that role, although there may be some psycological benefit to having one.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          My gut places Elroy Face and Firpo Marberry at the top of the reliever's list.
                          "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

                          NL President Ford Frick, 1947

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Fuzzy Bear
                            My gut places Elroy Face and Firpo Marberry at the top of the reliever's list.
                            I'd like to get a calculation of Firpo's ERA+ as a reliever. You don't want to look at Face's
                            Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
                            Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by leecemark
                              --I think the difference is that it is MUCH easier to come in to start the 9th with the bases empty than it is to come in with men on in the 7th or 8th and fiinish out the game. An dead average major league pitcher can come in and throw one scoreless inning about 2/3 of the time. You don't need a great pitcher to fill that role, although there may be some psycological benefit to having one.

                              I tend to agree with this. My informal reason focuses on Eric Gagne for the Dodgers. Their success with a healthy Gagne was far superior to that they have seen over the last 2 years with more of a closer by committee system. I think there is definitely something in the confidence factor of having a "great" closer.

                              Comment

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