Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Griffey

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #61
    Originally posted by Sockeye
    Can't anyone here do simple math? Ken Griffey Jr will play this entire season at age 36. Next season he'll be 37, the year after that he'll be 38, in 2009 he'll be 39, and in 2010 he'll be 40.

    That's an average of 31 a year til age 40. NOT 35 a year til age 41. Get your facts straight please!!
    He's not going to hit 31 each year. He'll be lucky if he hits ten.
    "I think about baseball when I wake up in the morning. I think about it all day and I dream about it at night. The only time I don't think about it is when I'm playing it."
    Carl Yastrzemski

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by Sockeye
      Can't anyone here do simple math? Ken Griffey Jr will play this entire season at age 36. Next season he'll be 37, the year after that he'll be 38, in 2009 he'll be 39, and in 2010 he'll be 40.

      That's an average of 31 a year til age 40. NOT 35 a year til age 41. Get your facts straight please!!
      Is someone forgetting 2001-2004?
      Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
      Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by Sockeye
        Can't anyone here do simple math? Ken Griffey Jr will play this entire season at age 36. Next season he'll be 37, the year after that he'll be 38, in 2009 he'll be 39, and in 2010 he'll be 40.

        That's an average of 31 a year til age 40. NOT 35 a year til age 41. Get your facts straight please!!
        Dang, I did screw up the math...but of course, your projection is still silly.

        He's not gonna hit 31 for the next 5 seasons (counting this one, which is where I think I screwed up). Well, actually, since 157/5 =31.4, he'll need to hit 31 HR in 3 of the next 5 seasons, and 32 in the other two.

        I think you need to go back to the workshop with that old projection system of yours.
        Visit my card site at Mike D's Baseball Card Page.

        Comment


        • #64
          I think he might end up with just over 2800 hits, AVG in the mid .280s, and optimistically hit 80-90 more HRs...tops

          Comment


          • #65
            Seriously he has so many factors (being a non-roider in the roid era, etc)playing in his favor he will be a shoo-in.

            Some other things he could do as insurance:
            -move back to the AL and DH more to increase his chances of staying healthy
            -get a ring (the yanks/red sox/any pennant contender really should be looking at him, the reds will inevitably quiet down to finish around .500 like always)

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by runningshoes53
              He's not going to hit 31 each year. He'll be lucky if he hits ten.
              You probably said they same thing last year.
              My dream ballpark dimensions
              LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
              RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
              Location....San Diego

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by RuthMayBond
                Is someone forgetting 2001-2004?
                I'm remembering 1993-1994, 1996-00, 05
                My dream ballpark dimensions
                LF: 388 Feet...Height 37 Feet...LCF: 455 Feet...CF: 542 Feet...Height 35 Feet
                RCF: 471 Feet...RF: 400 Feet...Height 60 Feet
                Location....San Diego

                Comment


                • #68
                  Originally posted by Sockeye
                  I'm remembering 1993-1994, 1996-00, 05
                  You're also forgetting how much he has played thus far this season.
                  But, hey, what's actual context got to do with anything anyway?
                  Dave Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
                  Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
                  Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
                  Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
                  Robin Bill Ernie JEDI

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Sockeye
                    I'm remembering 1993-1994, 1996-00, 05
                    When you're talking four of your last five years are down, and you're getting near your late 30s ,whatever
                    Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
                    Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      You're projecting Griiffey to play 625 more games. He's averaged 87 a year over the past five finished years. His best is 128, then 111, then 83, 70 and 53. At that pace, he'd have to play to age 44 to get that many games. At the pace of his most durable season in the past five, he'd barely make 625 games within five years. If he could stay healthy, he could get 157 homers from 2005 onward--but there's strong evidence in his recent record to suggest he is likely to miss a third or more of any season left in his career. I can see him hanging in there to 600 HR, but off his recent history, I'd think that somewhere between there and 640 is likely about the limit. Also, it would be unlikely that he would retire that close to 700 if he got as close as you project.

                      Another way of looking at it is that you're projecting him for 2384 more AB. In the past five finished years, he's gotten 1518. At his average pace of those past five years, he'll need eight seasons to do that. Again, he'd need nearly five seasons at his high of the past five finished years in AB (491) to get that many AB.

                      Looking just at homers, he's had 88 in the past five finished years. To get as many as you project at that pace would take nearly nine seasons. At the pace of his second best season in the past five in homers would take just over seven seasons. Even at the pace of his best season in the last five, it would take nearly 4 1/2 seasons.

                      Given Junior's injury history in the past five years, it is unreasonable to think he is likely to do anything like what you project. He's got the talent, yes, but he breaks too often and too seriously for us to expect he'll play that much.

                      Jim Albright
                      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
                      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
                      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Sockeye
                        I'm remembering 1993-1994, 1996-00, 05
                        ever hear of a thing called trends?

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          If Griffey does what you project, Sockeye, it will actually DECREASE his chances because it will be assumed he got on the juice...
                          THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

                          In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            These threads are just silly. You see him ending up with 230 steals when he has 178 steals and has only stolen 5 bases in the last 5 years. You cant just base everything on what you believe or hope will happen, you need to look at the situation of the player. Griffey just isnt healthy enough to end up with those stats. Look at the players career and talk about that, and not some outlandish projections. At least you didnt do a guy with only 5-8 years under his belt and did a guy who is a HOFer but if you do these threads have an argument not totally based on fiction.
                            go sox.

                            Pigskin-Fever

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              What's next, a thread asking if Willie Mays will make the hall of fame?

                              I predict he will end up with 660 HR's...
                              AL East Champions: 1981 1982
                              AL Pennant: 1982
                              NL Central Champions: 2011
                              NL Wild Card: 2008

                              "It was like coming this close to your dreams and then watching them brush past you like a stranger in a crowd. At the time you don't think much of it; you know, we just don't recognize the significant moments of our lives while they're happening. Back then I thought, 'Well, there'll be other days.' I didn't realize that that was the only day." - Moonlight Graham

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Dudecar00
                                What's next, a thread asking if Willie Mays will make the hall of fame?

                                I predict he will end up with 660 HR's...
                                Well, he's averaged 12 homers a season since 1951, so he should pass Aaron around 2012ish.
                                Last edited by digglahhh; 05-19-2006, 01:47 PM.
                                THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT COME WITH A SCORECARD

                                In the avy: AZ - Doe or Die

                                Comment

                                Ad Widget

                                Collapse
                                Working...
                                X