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Bill James makes HOF case for Dwight Evans

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  • #46
    Originally posted by Second Base Coach View Post
    I think when reading his record, you see a LOT of seasons when he failed to tally HOF-like counting numbers.

    The debate may be record versus ability. I don't think he has the record, IMHO. I don't think he put enough runs on the scoreboard in his twenties. I am blaming the batting order. Maybe I am wrong.

    What do you think are his three best stats if you were to argue for his induction?
    His best stats are his career WAR and his career WIN SHARES which put him at hall of fame level.

    Everybody who is near Evans in career WAR is either in the hall of fame, or should be. Nettles, Dick Allen and Hernandez have all been mentioned as hall of fame omissions, the rest of the guys below are in the hall of fame. Besides, I didn't really get into this to argue for Evans as a hall of famer, I got in to argue that Evans is a way better hall of fame candidtate than Colavito or Oliva, who one poster thought were better candidates than Dwight.

    CAREER WAR
    136. Juan Marichal+ (16) 62.7 R
    137. Joe Cronin+ (20) 62.5 R
    138. Amos Rusie+ (10) 62.1 R
    139. Ryne Sandberg+ (16) 62.0 R
    140. Yogi Berra+ (19) 61.9 L
    141. Dwight Evans (20) 61.8 R
    142. Graig Nettles (22) 61.6 L
    143. Dick Allen (15) 61.2 R
    144. Harmon Killebrew+ (22) 61.1 R
    145. Keith Hernandez (17) 61.0 L
    146. Jake Beckley+ (20) 60.9 L

    I mean, are there actually people in this forum who think that "BLACK INK" and "GRAY INK" are better measurements of a player's value than WAR?

    If you want to know about traditional stats, Evans had 1470 runs scored and 1391 RBIs, with a career .370 OBP and a career OPS+ of 127. That's the same career OPS+ number that Jim Rice had, but Evans had thousands of more plate appearances than Rice. A career 127 OPS+ in over 10,000 plate appearances with great defense makes someone a hall of famer in my book.

    Comment


    • #47
      Let's get the discussion back to the original topic: Dwight Evans. Ed note: If you weren't following this file, I've moved a 25 post digression out of the conversation into a new thread.
      Last edited by jalbright; 02-19-2012, 01:37 PM.
      Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
      Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
      A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by jalbright View Post
        Let's get the discussion back to the original topic: Dwight Evans.
        thank you.

        Comment


        • #49
          Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
          Yes, slightly better.

          If you really think that batting titles and leading the league in hits is real important we really can't debate this anymore.

          Maybe you'd rather have Bill Madlock and his 4 batting titles than Dwight Evans?

          Surely you must realize by 2012 that batting average is not a very significant statistic?

          Oliva scored 100 runs twice and had 100 RBIs twice.
          Evans scored 100 runs 4 times and had 100 RBIs 4 times.

          Do you think batting titles and leading the league in hits are more important than scoring and driving in runs?
          Yes, BA and hits are important.

          I am sure you aware of the conditions that Oliva played in from his 1964 ROY campaign to 1968 were not to the hitters' advantage.

          For whatever it is worth I read the 1980 BASEBALL ABSTRACT and spent all too much of my youth playing Strat-O-Matic.

          Yes, I would rather have Bill Madlock for 1 season. I have lived in Boston since 1978 and have worked as a bartender for a good part of 30 years. I have seen Dewey 100's of times. He was a very good player. If that is your idea of a HOFer I am fine with it but he was never dominant. His arm was often used to "hold" Ron Hassey at first by throwing to 3rd.

          Dewey was popular post-1981 as his children's stories came to light and he became a good interview. Fans' fascination with his Hawaiian background undoubtedly helped. Fred Lynn and Jim Rice were not popular players during Evans' ascendancy so he derived a big advantage in public relations from that.

          Dwight Evans was never a dominant player. To consider him as a "Life Achievement Award" HOFer you have to disregard 72-80.

          End of rant.

          stevegallanter.wordpress.com
          Last edited by Steven Gallanter; 02-14-2012, 07:43 PM.

          Comment


          • #50
            Originally posted by Steven Gallanter View Post
            I have lived in Boston since 1978 and have worked as a bartender for a good part of 30 years. i have seen Dewy 100's of times.
            At the ballpark or the bar?
            They call me Mr. Baseball. Not because of my love for the game; because of all the stitches in my head.

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by Steven Gallanter View Post
              Yes, BA and hits are important.
              Is batting average more important than SLG% in your opinion?

              Is batting average more important than OBP in your opinion?

              Originally posted by Steven Gallanter View Post

              Yes, I would rather have Bill Madlock for 1 season.
              According to WIN SHARES, Dwight's best the seasons are as good or better than Madlock's best season.

              EVANS - 31, 29, 26
              MADLOCK - 26, 25, 25

              I'd much rather have an average Evans season than an average Madlock season.

              MADLOCK - .305/.365/442 - OPS+ 123 - only once over 85 RBI, only once over 85 runs scored
              EVANS - .....272/.370/.470 OPS+ 127 - 6 times over 85 RBI, 6 times over 85 runs scored

              Evans got on base more, had much more power, and produced way more runs and was a much more valuable defensive player than Madlock, who was below average in the field. WHY would you want Madlock over Evans?

              Comment


              • #52
                I'd take both, move Madlock to DH and win with them. :P

                But yeah, the big difference I see is with defense. I see Madlock's offense as a tad more valuable considering the positions he played. The difference in defense though is too large, whether by anecdote or statistics. And Madlock was no Harmon Killebrew with the bat.
                Last edited by J W; 02-14-2012, 04:41 PM.
                http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploa...-showalter.gif

                Comment


                • #53
                  Mad Dog
                  Home: .306/.367/.458
                  Road: .303/.364/.426

                  Dewey
                  Home: .283/.379/.505
                  Road: .261/.361/.431

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by ol' aches and pains View Post
                    At the ballpark or the bar?
                    Both. 35 times live, several hundred including reruns on TV.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
                      Mad Dog
                      Home: .306/.367/.458
                      Road: .303/.364/.426

                      Dewey
                      Home: .283/.379/.505
                      Road: .261/.361/.431
                      OPS+ takes care of this, Madlock - 123, Evans - 127 - Longer career and much better defense. I don't see why anobody would take Madlock over Evans.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
                        OPS+ takes care of this, Madlock - 123, Evans - 127 - Longer career and much better defense. I don't see why anobody would take Madlock over Evans.
                        I agree wholeheartedly. My question is why are you so certain about OPS+ which is an approximation that incorporates park factors which are to some extent guesstimations vs. the actual road numbers considering their eras largely overlap (though their leagues don't which may explain things).

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by PVNICK View Post
                          I agree wholeheartedly. My question is why are you so certain about OPS+ which is an approximation that incorporates park factors which are to some extent guesstimations vs. the actual road numbers considering their eras largely overlap (though their leagues don't which may explain things).
                          If we just go with regular OPS in road games it's Evans over Madlock 792 to 790, and Evans had about 1600 more plate appearances on the road.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
                            OPS+ takes care of this, Madlock - 123, Evans - 127 - Longer career and much better defense. I don't see why anobody would take Madlock over Evans.
                            I'm not so sure I would put that much faith into OPS+. There are so many factors that are not considered in park factors such as handedness and how much the park benefitted that particular hitter's style. Why use question marks (OPS+ or park factors) when you have data of very significant sample size that show what actually happened (home/road splits)?

                            Also I do not believe that OPS negates the need to look at BA. Looking at the road stats, Madlock seems to me it the better hitter based on the significantly higher batting average.

                            Evans was much better at defense but he also played an easier position. I can see arguments being made in favor for either player but I certainly do not see it as a landslide.

                            Finally it certainly is not the case of a lefty hitting in the Baker Bowl but I do take OPS+ from a righty hitting at Fenway with a grain of salt.
                            Last edited by Joltin' Joe; 02-15-2012, 12:16 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
                              I'm not so sure I would put that much faith into OPS+. There are so many factors that are not considered in park factors such as handedness and how much the park benefitted that particular hitter's style. Why use question marks (OPS+ or park factors) when you have data of very significant sample size that show what actually happened (home/road splits)?

                              Also I do not believe that OPS negates the need to look at BA. Looking at the road stats, Madlock seems to me it the better hitter based on the significantly higher batting average.

                              Evans was much better at defense but he also played an easier position. I can see arguments being made in favor for either player but I certainly do not see it as a landslide.

                              Finally it certainly is not the case of a lefty hitting in the Baker Bowl but I do take OPS+ from a righty hitting at Fenway with a grain of salt.
                              Stats like WAR and WIN SHARES take all of this guesswork out of it.

                              Batting average is clearly way less important than either OBP or SLG%.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
                                I don't see why anobody would take Madlock over Evans.
                                Posted by yours truly, 7/1/2006 on the "Bill Madlock for HOF" thread:

                                Fuzzy-

                                Nice work. I like your posting style- fair, and even handed. You're doing the history justice by trying to present all sides of the story.

                                However, regarding the batting titles/missing games position, someone levied the claim awhile back that:


                                I presumed the poster who made these statements was working entirely off of one small blurb in the New James Abstact about Madlock's reputation for intentionally sitting out games to win batting titles. So....... I went back to assess the validity of this claim and did some in depth empirical reserach on Proquest, going through the boxes/wrapups. I knew nothing about Madlock aside from his statistics, so I went in tabula rasa.

                                Here's what I found/composed:

                                I looked in depth at 1975, the year Madlock won his first batting title. I used Proquest to access the wrapups/boxscores to examine why he missed games, and then correlated that with the game logs at retrosheet to see when he missed time, the ebb and flow of his average and that of his competitors, and who was pitching when he missed games. I queried 7 of the largest national newspapers and also APS Online (which houses thousands of periodicals). It's very easy to unyieldingly follow Bill James and make blanket statements as you did. In point of fact, though, Madlock was a victim of several injuries/incidents which conspired to cause him to miss lots of games.

                                Madlock severely sprained his ankle on May 5, 1974- the Chicago Tribune has a picture of the incident- and his foot is sideways upon impact at 1st base. This is germane because it never healed properly, gave him chronic pain, and was probably just one of the factors that caused him to miss so many games and forced him into early retirement.

                                Madlock tore his hip flexor in late June, 1975. The doctor who examined him listed his condition as "dubious at best". The Tribune on July 4th, 1975 noted that Madlock, hitting .351, vetoed the idea of sitting out the rest of the year injured and taking his chances on a batting title.

                                He fractured his thumb on Sept 11th, 1975 on a high and tight fastball from Bruce Kison of the Pirates. He was already serving a three day suspension due to a run in with umpire Jerry Dale. Another bunch of games missed due to injury.

                                Madlock had a pinch hit trial at bat on the 21st, and jumped back into the lineup on the 24th to face Tom Seaver, who pitched 10 shutout innings of 3 hit ball (Seaver's no hit bid was foiled in the 9th inning and made headlines in every newspaper in the country). Had Madlock been malingering or obsessed with the batting title, wouldn't he have sat out against the greatest pitcher in baseball (especially with a healing fracture)?

                                1976:
                                In September of 1976, Madlock had a cyst removed from his right knee, before departing to attend the funeral of his grandfather who had apparently raised him. And there isn't evidence that his absence was indicative of purposeful absenteeism; while he was out, the Pirates faced lousy, nondescript pitchers for San Diego and Montreal.

                                Madlock missed a series of games in late September of 1976- he was mugged and hospitalized on Sept. 24th, and suffered a concussion on the back of his skull outside a NYC hotel. I attached the account of the incident as detailed by both The Tribune and The New York Times. He was admitted to Northwestern Memorial Hospital after the attack.

                                And in case you consider that he might have extended his time on the DL to win the batting title, consider that Madlock was trailing Ken Griffey Sr. at the time of the incident.

                                In fact, on the last day of the season, with he and Griffey in a virtual deadlock, Griffey decided to sit out and try to preserve the lead, and Madlock played, going 4-4 to capture the batting title- one of the top few most coveted seasonal records.

                                The Chicago Tribune related the entire saga:

                                "In the sixth off Dale Murray, Madlock pulled his fourth single over the head of Garrett. Word by now had reached Chicago that Griffey hadn't played, but the fourth hit by Madlock lifted his average to .3385 and Griffey was at .3375 so Ken had to get off the bench""Griffey, attempting to back into the title, was withheld from the lineup in Cincinnati. Then he fanned as a pinch hitter in a vain attempt to catch Madlock" (this was Griffey's final AB of the season)

                                It's infinitely easier and less cognitively taxing to endlessly reproduce the ideas of moguls like Bill James and presume them to be true, to go on reputation, or to base conclusions of off naked numbers ex post facto....but these quick and dirty routes often lead to erroneous conclusions. This is simply one discrete case where (at least in the batting title seasons I had the time to research) the facts belie the commonly held misperception, which has seemingly been propagated and blown out of proportion over time.

                                Comment

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