Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Bill James makes HOF case for Dwight Evans

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    How did you come up with a OPS+ of only 90 for a line of .261/.367/.437 for a guy who played mostly in the 70s and the 80s? Looking at that line, I am almost positive that it is well above average, I would guess around 110-115. Where do you find OPS+ for road numbers anyways?
    Maybe he used tOPS - showing his relative road OPS+ to home OPS+. If so, those are two very, very different things.

    Leave a comment:


  • Joltin' Joe
    replied
    Originally posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    he slugged .437 career in road games,and his ops+ career in road games is a paltry 90
    How did you come up with a OPS+ of only 90 for a line of .261/.367/.437 for a guy who played mostly in the 70s and the 80s? Looking at that line, I am almost positive that it is well above average, I would guess around 110-115. Where do you find OPS+ for road numbers anyways?

    Leave a comment:


  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Originally posted by Joltin' Joe View Post
    2.2 win differential is quite significant. We are talking about roughly 22 runs, correct? I wonder where the delta came from....perhaps from fielding metrics which never seems to have a general consensus.
    If replacement level is different and if no AL vs. NL LQ adjustment BG's WAR (which I suspect is the case), you are talking a .6 WAR difference, right there. That leaves about 1.5 WAR left between defense and any baserunning/linear weight differences.

    And for the record, I wouldn't say that there "never seems to be a general consensus." the correlation between the metrics (DWS, TZ, UZR, +/-, Michale Humphry's system, etc.) is typically around .7-.8. That is a good correlation. The problem is, it isn't good enough to take the numbers at face value or to determine which one is "right."

    Leave a comment:


  • 9RoyHobbsRF
    replied
    While Evans was a fine player he certainly was helped by inflated numbers from playing in Fenway, where slow sluggers get inflated stats that make them seem more valuable
    he slugged .437 career in road games,and his ops+ career in road games is a paltry 90
    if he played in the oakland coliseum he would have been a non productive .240 hitter

    this is a hall of famer?

    Leave a comment:


  • Joltin' Joe
    replied
    Originally posted by Ubiquitous View Post
    Baseball Gauge does their WAR rather differently than Fangraphs and BRef.
    2.2 win differential is quite significant. We are talking about roughly 22 runs, correct? I wonder where the delta came from....perhaps from fielding metrics which never seems to have a general consensus.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ubiquitous
    replied
    Baseball Gauge does their WAR rather differently than Fangraphs and BRef.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Baseball Gauge's WAR uses Fielding Wins Shares for defense and BR uses Total Zone for defense. There may be a few baserunning differences too. I am not sure if they have the same replacement value or not. If not, BR would be a little higher, as Sean Smith uses a higher baseline than the other versions of WAR that I have season. Not sure if Baseball Gauge's has a NL vs. AL quality difference either, but BR does.

    Leave a comment:


  • SavoyBG
    replied
    Originally posted by willshad View Post
    Baseball Reference credits Sosa with 11.4 WAR in 2001, from what I can see.
    I got my figures from here:

    http://seamheads.com/baseballgauge/index.php

    Leave a comment:


  • willshad
    replied
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
    I'm not so sure Sosa had a better 10 year peak. Let's see.

    WAR - 10 BEST
    SOSA - EVANS
    9.2.........5.8
    6.3.........5.8
    5.8.........5.8
    5.6.........5.2
    4.3.........4.1
    3.3.........3.9
    3.1.........3.9
    3.0.........3.7
    2.5.........3.0
    2.2.........2.8
    44.3..... 44.0

    Just about dead even.
    Baseball Reference credits Sosa with 11.4 WAR in 2001, from what I can see.

    Leave a comment:


  • SavoyBG
    replied
    Originally posted by Matthew C. View Post
    I only saw the list on post #138.
    Okay, it was post #132 where I listed the guys I thought he was grouped with, below the top 15 guys.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bothrops Atrox
    replied
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
    Flick and Bonds were both on the list I posted.
    I only saw the list on post #138.

    Leave a comment:


  • SavoyBG
    replied
    Originally posted by willshad View Post
    There is a difference between being 'significantly better' and being 'significantly more qualified'. Overall, Sosa may not have been a much better player than Evans, but the fact that he had over 600 home runs, along with over 60 3 times makes him MUCH more qualified for the hall.
    So we agree that they are roughly equal as players.

    Actually, the fact that he was a steroid user is why he had all those home runs, and in most voter's eyes, that makes him LESS qualified for the hall.

    Leave a comment:


  • Los Bravos
    replied
    In years to come, people will be able to sum up the insanity of that era by simply saying "People thought Sammy Sosa actually hit 60+ homers 3 times. Sammy SOSA!"

    Leave a comment:


  • ol' aches and pains
    replied
    Originally posted by willshad View Post
    There is a difference between being 'significantly better' and being 'significantly more qualified'. Overall, Sosa may not have been a much better player than Evans, but the fact that he had over 600 home runs, along with over 60 3 times makes him MUCH more qualified for the hall.
    He'll never get there. I would support Dwight Evans, Darrel Evans, and Bob Evans the sausage guy for the Hall before letting the steroid abusing, bat corking, wife beating Sammy Sosa set foot in Cooperstown.
    Last edited by ol' aches and pains; 02-19-2012, 05:27 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • willshad
    replied
    Originally posted by SavoyBG View Post
    Yes, but I can't see Sosa being "significantly better" as willshad had said. He definitely does not belong up with the guys in top 15 and he's no better than most of the next group, and worse if you care about steroids.
    There is a difference between being 'significantly better' and being 'significantly more qualified'. Overall, Sosa may not have been a much better player than Evans, but the fact that he had over 600 home runs, along with over 60 3 times makes him MUCH more qualified for the hall.

    Leave a comment:

Ad Widget

Collapse
Working...
X