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  • #31
    Martin was an All-Star for the fourth time in his career in 2015. He had a career-high in home runs (23), had the most RBI since 2007, scored the most runs since 2008, had the most doubles since 2008 and had the most at-bats since 2009. He had the fifth 3+ WAR campaign of his 10-year career and continued to provide plus defense (leading the league in runners caught stealing for the sixth time and caught stealing percentage for the first time).

    He's got a ways to go. But don't count him out of the Hall of Fame race just yet.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by Cowtipper View Post
      He's got a ways to go. But don't count him out of the Hall of Fame race just yet.
      Given the current state of the BBWAA, rules and historic backlog, I think it's safe to "count him out" entirely until the elections prove otherwise on a consistent basis. In an environment where Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, etc. may not get in over a 10-year window, the idea that uncelebrated players or lesser tier stars will have a shot at election is simply wishful thinking.

      Mark McGwire and Alan Tramell will be rejected this year. Tim Raines and Lee Smith next year. Russell Martin, whatever his merits some day, will be one-and-done with this generation of electors.
      "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
      "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
      "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
      "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Brad Harris View Post
        Given the current state of the BBWAA, rules and historic backlog, I think it's safe to "count him out" entirely until the elections prove otherwise on a consistent basis. In an environment where Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, etc. may not get in over a 10-year window, the idea that uncelebrated players or lesser tier stars will have a shot at election is simply wishful thinking.

        Mark McGwire and Alan Tramell will be rejected this year. Tim Raines and Lee Smith next year. Russell Martin, whatever his merits some day, will be one-and-done with this generation of electors.
        Geez that is such an obvious point and yet I don't think I have read it, much less written it myself.

        Comment


        • #34
          Cougar stated earlier that "Martin's an interesting player." While that may be, Martin almost certainly will not have an interesting case.

          There are two three types of players who will hang around the BBWAA ballot over the next 15 years or more: shoo-ins, qualified players with PED suspicions, and players who are viewed as well-qualified by advanced metrics (Mussina, Rolen, Walker) or well-qualified by traditional POVs (Morris, Vizquel). Everybody else, guys who in "normal" circumstances might merit 5-10% support for few elections or who might even cling to the ballot longer than 2-3 years simply won't find room in the results to do that. With 21 well-qualified candidates on the 2016 ballot, for example, there isn't room for Jason Kendall (as an example) to get a second look. And there shouldn't be.

          Perhaps in an environment where the Hall of Fame operates perfectly and the election process provides time for an electorate - some electorate - to look at Kendall or Lance Parrish or Elston Howard or Darrell Porter. In that mythical universe, Kendall's merits could be discussed, weighed, debated, etc. In our HoF Forum, here, that's something we can do. But in a practical sense, it's pointless because we live in a world where Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez can't make it in on the first ballot, where Thurman Munson and Ted Simmons can't get traction. Jorge Posada may even be one-and-done in this environment. It's kind of like The Walking Dead. We have to accept that the world we used to live in - the one where the Veterans Committee met every year and tried to elect someone, where no-brainers got elected quickly and second-tier HoF caliber players could build a case in 15 tries or less - those days are gone. And they aren't coming back any time soon, possibly even in our lifetimes.

          We live in a world where no one was elected three years ago, where shenanigans and superimposed rules and intellectual lethary and prejudice rule the day and the rules have invited a bottleneck of candidates of historic magnitude. We live in a world where Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell have to sing for their supper. In this world, Russell Martin won't even be a speck in the eye of the BBWAA when his name is called.
          "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
          "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
          "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
          "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

          Comment


          • #35
            After a horrid start ot 2016, Martin ended up having a decent year, hitting 20 home runs with 74 RBI. Worrisome, though, is the fact that his OPS+ has gone from 135 to 112 to 96 over the past three seasons.

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            • #36
              Martin posted a league average offensive season with some positive defensive value, but in only 91 games.

              Bothrops and I are the only HOF supporters in the Single Ballot hall.

              Any one who hasn't submitted a ballot think of him as a HOF, or anyone else change opinion?
              Jacquelyn Eva Marchand (1983-2017)
              http://www.tezakfuneralhome.com/noti...uelyn-Marchand

              Comment


              • #37
                This poll is five-and-a-half years old. I wonder how different the results would be if we had a new one? He's a solid "maybe" for me, personally.

                Martin will be 35 years old entering the 2018 season, his thirteenth. A rosy estimate of his final career totals will be somewhere around 1,000 runs, 1,000 RBI, 200 HR, a .700+ OPS. He is a four-time All-Star with one Gold Glove Award. He has been a league-average hitter with great defense through most of his career. While that's extremely valuable, and stats like WAR or WARP demonstrate that, there won't be enough forward-thinking voters in the electorate within the next decade to get past the relatively unimpressive career totals and rate stats among his traditional batting statistics. There almost certainly won't be a substantial plurality of voters who recognize the value of framing for catchers.

                It appears that Martin will be one-and-done with the BBWAA somewhere in the years 2025-2030, depending on his final season. This will still largely be the same electorate which recently dismissed Jorge Posada and Jason Kendall and, among whom, Joe Mauer's Hall of Fame case is anything but certain.

                That means that Russell's chances for election will rest on the whatever form the Era Committee takes when he reaches eligibility for that body. Given the direction of the Hall's "back door" under the Clark/Morgan regime since the late 20th century, there seems little reason to suggest we will see Russell's election for many decades yet to come. That's more an indictment on the electoral system than it is on Martin's talent/career.

                Deserving of election or not, Russell Martin certainly deserves his "day in court", something neither the BBWAA nor the Era Committee are likely to give him.
                "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                Comment


                • #38
                  In writing that last post, I just got a little fired up thinking about this. Martin is a great example of a guy who will deserve serious/full consideration by an informed and thoughtful electorate. He won't get it because there is no such electorate for the Baseball Hall of Fame (at least as currently constructed).

                  It irks me that legitimate "gray area" or 2nd- or 3rd- (or 4th-, etc.) tier greats like Russell Martin will be denied a thorough audit of their credentials while "hat tip" votes go guys like Armando Benitez, Jacque Jones, Bill Mueller and Aaron Sele.

                  There are scores of voters who spend a good number of hours, perhaps days, parsing through the candidate list and weighing the pros and cons of those they deem close calls. Perhaps that is now growing to be a majority of the sportswriters who traditionally have used their Hall of Fame vote primarily as an easy column during the slow(er) news cycle of the offseason. The electoral system in place, however, does nothing to vet the voters to solicit the best-informed, most-critical among them. It does nothing to winnow the wheat from the chaff in order to focus the electorate's attention on a reasonable number of candidates. It does nothing to promote focus on the best candidates among those eligible. It doesn't even provide guidance on what the Hall of Fame's standards for election are, what should constitute a "Hall of Fame career" or how many Hall of Famers there ought to be.

                  The Hall of Fame has basically dumped all of those decisions on a couple hundred sportswriters - to the exclusion of people with similar or better credentials as time has gone on - and then involved existing Hall of Fame members in the process by way of a second-level review of candidates the BBWAA really liked, but didn't elect the first time. As Bill James once quipped, it's a camel - a horse designed by committee.

                  Baseball - it's players, contributors and, most importantly, it's fans - deserve a better system. It ain't that hard.

                  "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                  "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                  "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                  "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Someone might want to parse it but a quick search shows that Martin's teams improve by be about 5-10 wins when he arrives and win about 5 games less when he leaves. The lone exception being Pittsburgh who had a better record after he left than before or while he was there. All this could be coincidence, but since much of his value is in the unnoticed or unrecorded aspects of the game, there may be something to it ,or at least a narrative.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      He's got 36.5 WAR. Martin reminds me of Sherm Lollar with a little more power, and Sherm had only 30.4 WAR, while Martin isn't done.

                      Martin has turned out to be better than Lollar, and better than I thought I'd be, but he's still not really a star, and never has been. He's a quality regular in an era where catchers last longer and have more games logged than in the days of Lollar and Crandall.

                      There are so many catchers I'd rate ahead of Martin, not just based on what he's done so far, but what he could project out to optimistically. Ted Simmons and Jorge Posada come to mind as better players. Joe Mauer had a much higher peak and was a better player. Thurman Munson easily ranks ahead of Martin, and so does Elston Howard. Lance Parrish and Bill Freehan rank ahead of Martin. There are simply too many guys not in the HOF that are better than Martin.
                      "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

                      NL President Ford Frick, 1947

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Russell Martin is in my top 15 catchers outside the Hall of Fame, but he's somewhere in the #11-15 area, depending on what day you ask me. Right there in a group with Darrell Porter, Jason Kendall, Elston Howard, etc. That doesn't mean he won't belong in the Hall of Fame some day, but at this point it's an academic exercise, not a battle worth fighting.
                        "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                        "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                        "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                        "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Martin's case is actually a simple one:

                          If one puts stock into his CSAA defensive numbers (the most elaborate catcher defensive system available which includes framing), Martin is a comfortable HOFer. If one choses to look at baseball cards or BBref/FG WAR (and the defensive systems they use), he is not.

                          I do look at CSAA first and foremost for catcher defense - so he is a HOFer for me.
                          1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                          1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                          1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                          The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                          The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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                          • #43
                            His career isn't over yet, but it's safe to say that over half of it is in the books and more than likely the better half. That said, he's been a league-average hitter who carries an outstanding glove at a premium defensive position. That's comfortable Hall of Fame territory for people over the course of a career.

                            Just curious, BA, where does Martin rank for you in relation to Yadier Molina and Jim Sundberg?
                            "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                            "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                            "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                            "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Chadwick View Post
                              His career isn't over yet, but it's safe to say that over half of it is in the books and more than likely the better half. That said, he's been a league-average hitter who carries an outstanding glove at a premium defensive position. That's comfortable Hall of Fame territory for people over the course of a career.

                              Just curious, BA, where does Martin rank for you in relation to Yadier Molina and Jim Sundberg?
                              Slightly ahead of Molina (better hitter) and both a few catcher spots ahead of Sundberg. I do not have Sundberg in my HOF - just because we really have no way of knowing how good defensively he was. I may be selling him short.
                              1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

                              1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

                              1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


                              The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
                              The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

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                              • #45
                                Part of why I look at rWAR and fWAR as much as WARP is because we can compare apples-to-apples with catcher defense. If pitch framing gives recent catchers like Molina, Martin, McCann and Posey a bump, is it a safe assumption similar bumps would be forthcoming for catchers from earlier eras, even if we limit that to catchers with a great defensive reputation and great (though less accurate) defensive stats?

                                I wonder, with the years we can measure, to what degree pitch framing reinforces pre-existing perceptions of defensive catchers. Is there a correlation between great defenders by other measures and great pitch framers or is it a unique skill with no correlation to other great defensive abilities that we could measure.

                                What I'm trying to get at is whether we can even assume a bump to Sundberg (for example) for pitch framing credit or if that's not a logical leap at all. Martin's and Molina's Hall cases don't occur in a vacuum - it's very much relative to those around them.

                                I suppose the easier way to ask this is: why don't you have Sundberg - who has a stellar defensive rep and good defensive stats without pitch framing - over the line?
                                "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
                                "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
                                "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
                                "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

                                Comment

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